GBP/USD + Fair Value GAPOn GBP/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.30160.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
GBPUSD trade ideas
GBPUSD Analysis Update 4/14 10:18am, pending confirmationI've been closely analyzing GBP/USD this week, and here's my updated view based on all the technical indicators and fundamental data.
Price Action & Key Levels
Right now, GBP/USD is trading at 1.31537, after rejecting 1.320 resistance earlier in the session. The market made a strong attempt to break above 1.320, but sellers stepped in, causing a pullback. Given this rejection, I'm watching 1.317 closely—if price fails to reclaim that level, a bearish continuation toward 1.312–1.310 becomes increasingly likely.
Technical Indicators & Market Signals
Momentum & Trend Strength
RSI: Short-term signals suggest price is consolidating (RSI at 48.78), while the daily RSI (76.08) indicates overbought conditions, meaning a larger pullback may be ahead.
Aroon Oscillator: Weakening bullish strength, suggesting trend exhaustion.
ADX: At 10.1 (1-hour), showing weak trend momentum, meaning price might stay range-bound or reverse lower.
MACD: Mixed signals—some divergence appears, showing signs of a potential downward move.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From 1.320 High)
23.6% retracement: 1.3172 → Minor resistance zone.
38.2% retracement: 1.3158 → Current price zone.
50% retracement: 1.3143 → Potential short-term support.
61.8% retracement: 1.3129 → Stronger support level.
78.6% retracement: 1.3110 → Critical breakdown point.
If GBP/USD fails to reclaim 1.317, I anticipate further downside toward 1.312–1.311, where stronger support exists.
Bollinger Bands Confirmation
Upper Band (~1.320): Acted as resistance—price rejected this zone, confirming sellers stepped in.
Middle Band (~1.315–1.316): Price hovering here—neutral consolidation phase.
Lower Band (~1.312–1.313): If price breaks below 1.314, downward momentum is likely toward this level.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
GBP Weakness: Expected softer BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation Rate data, which could weigh on GBP/USD.
USD Strength: Strong Retail Sales figures and upcoming Fed Chair Powell’s speech might bolster the Dollar, adding further downside pressure to GBP/USD.
Trade Setup & Execution Strategy
Bearish Case:
If GBP/USD fails at 1.317, I’ll look to enter short below 1.3155, targeting 1.312 or lower.
Bullish Case:
If GBP/USD reclaims 1.317, buyers could push price back toward 1.320 resistance.
Conclusion
At the moment, GBP/USD is at a decision point—while short-term indicators suggest some consolidation, rejection at 1.320 confirms bearish pressure. If sellers hold control, I expect price to move toward 1.312–1.311 in the coming sessions, making a short setup favorable. However, if price reclaims 1.317, buyers may attempt another test of 1.320 resistance.
GBP/USD ANALYSISGBP/USD 15M - As you can see price has traded down and into the Demand Zone we have marked out above, this is after price has cleared and absorbed a level of Supply in the market.
This tells me that there is more Demand in the market than there is Supply and price is still showing clear signs of bullish structure with it not breaking any protected lows.
This trade is currently running + 17 pips. (+ 0.77%) 0.77RR
Based on this I have gone ahead and placed a long position with my SL below the zone I have gone ahead and got involved from and my TP is set at a higher timeframe area of Supply where I feel it may shake price once it trades in.
Well done to those of you who jumped in on this trade, if you have any questions with regards to the analysis or the trade itself drop me a message or comment below!
GBPUSD UP UP UPIF the price close above the resistance area by 4h candle then we gonna facing the target due to the 512 astronomical cycle also we are here in BOS structure so it should be up and up and we should carefully take care of the new Especially what Mr president Trump said in a post on his platform, "Truth Social": "No one will be exempt from responsibility for the unfair trade imbalance, especially China, which treats us in the worst way ever."
GBP/USD At Interesting Area To Sell , Should We Sell Now ?Here is my Opinion About GBP/USD , I Have an old res and the price respect it 100% and gave us a very good bearish P.A , So i think we have 2 places to sell it , first one if the price back to retest my res level 1.31750 and if the price give us a good bearish price action we can enter and targeting 200 pips . if the price didn`t back to retest the res level we can wait he price to close below support with 4h candle and then we can enter a sell trade with the same target .
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: April 14 - 18Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & Canada Inflation, BOC & ECB Rates, Corporate Earnings
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- UK’s Unemployment and Inflation Rates
- Inflation Rate in Canada & BOC Interest Rate Decision
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD retest of resistanceGBPUSD is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price has approached the resistance level, which has already acted as a pullback point.
The chart formed an ascending wedge and kept the harmonic pattern relevant.
On the 4H Timeframe, the indicators indicate a bearish divergence.
We expect a pullback in case of consolidation under the resistance.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
GBPUSD INTRADAY Bullish breakout supported at 1.3014GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, with the broader trend and structure supporting upside continuation. The recent intraday move appears to be a bullish breakout toward a key prior consolidation area.
Key Support: 1.3014 – aligns with the previous consolidation zone and potential bullish inflection point.
Upside Targets:
1.3255 – initial resistance level
1.3328 and 1.3418 – medium to long-term bullish targets
If price finds support at 1.3014 and forms a bullish reversal, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend toward the mentioned resistance levels.
However, a break and daily close below 1.3014 would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting deeper retracement toward 1.2980, with further support at 1.2900 and 1.2815.
Conclusion
GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.3014. Look for a bounce from this level to confirm upside continuation. A daily close below 1.3014 would turn the outlook bearish, exposing lower support levels.
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The Day Ahead Key Data Releases:
US: NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (March) – Closely watched for signs of shifting inflation trends that could impact Fed rate outlook.
China: Trade Balance (March) – Insight into global demand and China’s export strength; potential impact on commodities and risk sentiment.
Japan: Capacity Utilization (Feb) – Secondary data, but relevant for assessing industrial activity in Japan.
Central Bank Speakers:
Fed’s Harker & Waller – Any hints on rate cuts, inflation stance, or economic outlook could move markets, especially USD and rates.
Earnings to Watch:
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Key read on investment banking, trading, and overall market health. Could set tone for broader financials.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPUSD macro viewnotice the bullish flow sweeping swing lows and rallying higher. This has brought my attention to the equal highs on the monthly and also checking my indicator u can see the close back in the M range and higher pricing is suggested. we already retested the Wfvg where price reacted from and getting another push higher will suggest a break of that high.
As far as my model and strategy i do not trade on mondays so i will sit on my hands to see how the daily candle closes so we trade the expansion for the rest of the week. Mondays can be reversals setting up for tuesdays/wed high of the week or low... anyways the strategy here is trading the weekly/daily range. have an amazing week guys.
GBPUSD - its breakout? what's next??#GBPUSD.. as you know guys our area was 1.3035 and in first go market boke that area but then drop towards bottom due to tariff implantation.
now market again break our area in today so if that is clear breakout then we can expect a further bounce towards 3400 and 1.3500
good luck
trade wisely
GBPUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
GBPUSD today should buy or sell?GBP/USD continues to build on its bullish momentum, reclaiming the 1.3100 level on Monday morning. The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar suggests that the path of least resistance for this pair remains to the upside.
The key monthly employment report is set to be released on Tuesday, followed by the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, investors this week will also face the release of U.S. monthly Retail Sales figures and pay close attention to a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell — a speech that could play a crucial role in shaping the USD’s price dynamics. These events are expected to provide meaningful catalysts for the GBP/USD pair in the latter part of the week.
GU-Mon-14/04/25 TDA-Fundamentally driven push is wild!Analysis done directly on the chart
Eleven straight 4h green candles, this is what
CPI effect can do. This is what fundamentally
driven market is capable of, make sure to learn
from this time and do way better next time if
are not already doing!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GBP/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Bullish Reversal from Demand ZoneGBP/USD 4H Chart Analysis
Current Price: 1.27883
Timeframe: 4H (OANDA)
Key Zones:
🟦 Demand Zone (Support Area):
📍 Between 1.26873 (🔻 Stop Loss) and current price
This is where buyers are expected to step in and push the price higher.
🚀 Expected Move: The price is consolidating in the demand zone and might breakout upward.
➡️ Possible path:
1. Small pullback within demand zone
2. 📈 Breakout up to 1.29162 (🔵 First Resistance)
3. 📈 Continuation up to 1.31083 (🎯 Target Point)
Important Levels:
🔻 Stop Loss: 1.26873
(If price drops below this, setup is invalid)
🛑 Mid-Resistance Level: 1.29162
(Might face temporary selling pressure here)
🎯 Target Point: 1.31083
(Take-profit zone)
Conclusion:
📉 If price breaks below 1.26873 → trade invalid ❌
📈 If price holds and breaks above resistance → bullish potential ✅
Risk/Reward setup looks favorable from demand zone to target
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 14, 2025 GBPUSDThe initial market reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision last week to suspend sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days was short-lived amid heightened fears of a US recession amid an escalating trade war between the US and China. China's 84 per cent tariffs on US goods went into effect on Thursday, and Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145 per cent. Given that the US still imports a number of hard-to-replace materials from China, these developments have weakened confidence in the US economy.
Meanwhile, data released last week showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.1% in March, while core CPI rose +2.8% year-on-year, below consensus forecasts. In fact, markets are now pricing in the likelihood of a 90 basis point rate cut before the end of this year. Conversely, investors believe the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month is slightly less likely.
The aforementioned favourable fundamental backdrop supports a positive outlook for spot prices in the near term, although bulls seem reluctant to make aggressive bets and prefer to wait for important UK macro releases. Tuesday will see the release of the all-important monthly employment report, followed by the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, this week investors will be keeping an eye on the release of monthly US retail sales data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which will play a key role in influencing dollar price action. This, in turn, should give a significant impetus to the GBP/USD pair in the second half of the week.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD H4 | Rising toward the key resistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.3013, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 1.3260, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.2864, a pullback support.
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GBPUSD Are the Bears back? I've been analyzing GBP/USD closely, and here's my outlook for this week. The pair is currently trading at 1.31123, testing a significant resistance zone that has been crucial in recent sessions. Technically, short-term indicators show overbought conditions—the RSI on the 1-minute chart is at 87, and Stochastic RSI is at extreme levels, both signaling a high probability of a rejection from resistance rather than a continued breakout.
Digging deeper into trend and momentum indicators, I see that ultra-short-term readings (such as the Aroon Oscillator on the 1- and 5-minute charts) are bullish, but longer-term indicators suggest waning momentum. Linear regression slopes and moving averages like KAMA and EMA indicate slowing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Average True Range (ATR) is low, signaling consolidation rather than strong trend continuation. Considering these factors, I expect a retracement soon and am watching 1.308–1.307 as potential entry points.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking great for the Pound. GBP economic releases this week—including BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation figures—are expected to show weakness. Softer retail sales and job growth numbers could weigh on GBP further. Meanwhile, the USD is strengthening, with upbeat Retail Sales data and an important speech from Fed Chair Powell likely reinforcing the Dollar's momentum.
Based on my analysis, I anticipate GBP/USD will move lower this week and am leaning toward a bearish trade. My plan is to wait for a rejection from resistance before entering a short position, ideally around 1.308 or lower.
Please note things do change so let's see what this week brings :) !