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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

What's Next for GBP/USD in the Current Bearish Trend?The US Dollar Index started 2025 with an increase of about 0.79%, which drove several currencies to decline to their lowest levels, including the British Pound, which continued its downward trend and touched 1.23527, its lowest level since April 2024. The decline of the GBP/USD pair and the formation of a new low below 1.24774 confirm the bearish momentum of the pair. An increase to 1.25573 suggests the possibility of another decline to continue the downward trend, targeting 1.24140. Maintaining the level of 1.26139, which represents the last lower high recorded by the pair, and failing to record a peak above it, keeps the bearish scenario valid.
by CFI
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 182The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Short
by MoonriseTA
British Pound Sterling (GBP): A History and Trading OverviewBritish Pound Sterling (GBP): A History and Trading Overview The British pound, one of the oldest and most traded currencies, holds a central role in the global forex market. Known for its volatility and economic significance, the pound presents unique opportunities and challenges for traders. This article explores British money’s history, key factors driving its value, major trading pairs, and insights into how it’s traded. Origins and Historical Evolution of British Pound Sterling The British Pound Sterling, represented by the pound symbol £ and known by the British pound abbreviation GBP, has a rich history stretching back over a thousand years, making it one of the oldest continuously used currencies. Its origins trace to the Anglo-Saxon period, around the 8th century, when it was first introduced as a silver-based currency. Back then, one pound of sterling silver could be divided into 240 silver pennies—a substantial amount. The currency evolved as England developed its economy and trading networks, solidifying the pound’s status as a cornerstone of UK money and commerce across Europe. During the late 17th century, the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 marked a turning point, allowing the British government to issue notes and coins on a larger scale. Later, the central bank adopted the gold standard in the 19th century and pegged the pound’s value to gold, enhancing its stability and appeal. However, the turbulent economic climate following World War I and the Great Depression led to abandoning the gold standard, allowing the pound to float in value—a status it maintains today. Why Is a Pound Called Sterling? The term “sterling” is linked to the British currency’s origins as high-quality silver coins. Medieval England’s silver coins, made primarily from “sterling” silver, had a reputation for purity and reliability, giving rise to the enduring name “Pound Sterling.” This name reflects the currency's legacy as a reliable and trusted medium of exchange. Is a Quid the Same as Pounds? Yes, a pound vs quid refers to the same unit of currency. In the UK, British “quid” is just informal slang for one pound. Similar to how Americans might say “buck” for a dollar, “quid” is used informally across the UK. Whether referring to the British pound sign £1 or a larger amount, there is no difference between “quid” and “pound” in everyday conversation, although “quid” isn’t an official term and doesn’t appear on banknotes or coins. In comparing a quid vs pound vs pence, quid and pound refer to the same unit of currency: one pound. In contrast, a pence is worth 1/100th of a pound. 100 pence make up a pound, akin to how 100 cents make up a dollar. The British Pound in the 20th Century In the 20th century, the pound faced dramatic shifts as Britain navigated global economic challenges and geopolitical shifts. After World War I, Britain tried to reinstate the gold standard in 1925, hoping it would bring stability. However the post-war economy was fragile, and by 1931, the gold standard was abandoned permanently, allowing the pound to fluctuate with market conditions. This move was crucial—it marked the pound’s transition to a free-floating currency, where its value was driven by demand and supply rather than a fixed link to gold. World War II and its aftermath further tested the pound’s resilience. Britain’s economy suffered significant losses, and by 1949, the government was forced to devalue the pound by about 30% against the dollar to support post-war recovery efforts. The pound experienced another major drop in 1967, as Britain faced growing debt and economic pressure. Fast forward to 1992, and the pound’s status faced another test during the “Black Wednesday” crisis. Britain’s attempt to keep the pound within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) led to massive currency speculation. As traders shorted the GBP, meaning they expected it to lose value, the government struggled, ultimately withdrawing from the ERM—a pivotal decision that set the pound free from strict European exchange constraints. Factors Driving the British Pound Several key factors influence the value of the UK’s currency, from economic indicators to political events, making it a responsive currency in the forex market. Interest Rates and Monetary Policy The British pound’s value is heavily influenced by the Bank of England (BoE) and its monetary policies. The BoE’s primary tool for managing the pound is its interest rate policy. When the BoE raises rates, it often strengthens the pound by attracting investors seeking higher returns on UK assets. Conversely, lowering rates can weaken the pound, as it reduces the currency's appeal. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets regularly to assess economic conditions and decide on potential adjustments. Statements from these meetings can create significant market reactions, as traders interpret them for clues on future policies. In addition to interest rates, the BoE may also implement quantitative easing (QE) during economic downturns, increasing the money supply to stimulate growth. While the QE can help the economy, it often weakens the pound due to an increase in supply. The actions of other central banks also impact the pound’s value relative to another currency. For instance, if the Fed raises rates while the BoE keeps theirs unchanged, the dollar could strengthen against the pound. Major Economic Indicators and Events The British pound’s value is highly responsive to a range of economic indicators and events, as these reflect the health of the UK economy and inform expectations for future growth. GDP Growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are a crucial indicator for the pound. Solid GDP growth indicates a strong economy, which often strengthens the currency. Conversely, sluggish growth or contraction signals economic trouble, which can weaken the pound. Traders closely watch quarterly GDP releases as they give direct insight into the UK’s economic performance. Inflation Rates Inflation is a key driver for the pound due to its direct link with interest rates. The Bank of England targets a 2% inflation rate, and if inflation rises significantly above this level, the BoE may respond by raising rates, which tends to strengthen the pound. Low or declining inflation can have the opposite effect, reducing the likelihood of rate hikes and putting pressure on the currency. Employment Data Employment reports, especially the monthly unemployment rate and wage growth data, offer a snapshot of the labour market’s health. A low unemployment rate and rising wages indicate economic strength, typically supporting the pound. Weak employment data, on the other hand, can signal economic challenges, potentially leading to a weaker currency. Global Risk Sentiment The British pound has a complex relationship with global risk sentiment, sometimes acting as a “risk barometer” for the UK and global markets. Unlike so-called traditional safe-haven currencies like the US dollar or Japanese yen, the pound doesn’t have a role as a refuge during periods of market stress. During times of global uncertainty, the pound can weaken as investors move funds into potentially safer assets. For example, during major economic downturns or political crises, traders might sell off the pound in favour of currencies like the dollar or yen, which are seen as more resilient. This behaviour stems from the pound’s relatively high volatility. On the other hand, in periods of optimism or risk-on sentiment, the pound can attract investment, especially if the UK economy is performing well. The currency benefits from the UK’s open financial market, which can draw in foreign capital when investors feel confident about economic growth. Political Events The pound is highly sensitive to domestic political developments like any other currency. Events like general elections, referendums, and policy decisions usually cause swift price movements. For example, Brexit created significant uncertainty, leading to heightened pound volatility. Political stability, or lack thereof, affects investor confidence, influencing the pound's value in response to perceived risks or opportunities. Trade Relationships The UK's trade balance, particularly with key partners like the EU and the US, also impacts the pound. A positive trade balance (more exports than imports) often supports the currency, while a deficit can put downward pressure on it, as more pounds are exchanged for foreign currency to pay for imports. Trading the British Pound Trading the British pound offers opportunities for those interested in both major and cross-currency pairs. Its reputation for volatility and responsiveness to economic data makes it an appealing choice for various trading strategies. What Is the Best Pair to Trade With GBP? Traders can trade the pound through several pairs, each offering unique characteristics. GBP/USD is the most popular, providing high liquidity and frequent price movement. This pair is particularly attractive for traders who closely follow UK and US economic indicators, as these two economies often drive its volatility. GBP/JPY is another popular choice for those seeking higher volatility, as it tends to have larger price swings due to the yen’s so-called safe-haven status. Additionally, EUR/GBP is favoured by those interested in the close economic ties between the UK and the Eurozone, often providing interesting trends influenced by regional economic policies. Technical Analysis GBP pairs are well-suited to technical analysis, with traders commonly using tools like support and resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages. Patterns such as double tops and bottoms are frequently observed, and indicators like the MACD and RSI can help identify potential entry points based on overbought or oversold conditions. GBP’s volatility makes it ideal for momentum-based strategies, where traders look for strong price movements to capture gains. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis is essential when trading the pound, given its sensitivity to UK economic data and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy. Traders often monitor GDP growth, inflation, employment figures, and BoE’s interest rate decisions, as these have immediate effects on pound valuation. Additionally, political events such as elections or Brexit-related developments can create rapid shifts, making it crucial to stay informed about current affairs that could impact the currency. Risk Management Given the pound’s volatility, effective risk management is vital. Traders may potentially enhance their strategies by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and position sizing to account for the currency’s larger price swings. Observing correlations with other currencies, like EUR/USD, can also help manage exposure and offer additional insights when the pound exhibits similar or diverging trends. GBP/USD Pair Characteristics So what is GBP known for today? In the modern age, the pound is easily recognised by the pound’s sign (£) and remains one of the most traded currencies worldwide, particularly in pairs like GBP/USD, known as “Cable.” This pair represents the exchange rate between the British pound and the US dollar, capturing the relationship between two of the world’s largest economies. Liquidity and Volatility GBP/USD is known for high liquidity, especially during London and New York trading hours when the UK and US markets overlap. This liquidity attracts significant trading volume, leading to relatively tight spreads, especially during peak trading times. However, GBP/USD is also notably volatile, meaning it can experience sharp movements over short periods. This volatility is often driven by economic releases, political events, and market sentiment. Role in Forex Market As one of the major currency pairs, GBP/USD is a cornerstone of forex trading. It represents around 9% of total daily forex turnover. Traders follow it closely due to its sensitivity to key economic indicators, interest rate decisions, and policy changes from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. GBP/USD's unique position as both a "major" and an often volatile pair allows it to reflect broader market trends and risk sentiment effectively. Which Pair Correlates With GBP/USD? The GBP/USD pair frequently shows a correlation with other major pairs, particularly EUR/USD. This is largely due to their shared link to the US dollar. When EUR/USD experiences a strong trend, GBP/USD may often follow suit, although the unique economic factors affecting the UK and Eurozone can cause deviations in their movements. Additionally, USD/CHF often shows an inverse correlation with GBP/USD, as the Swiss franc serves as a so-called safe-haven currency (more so than the US dollar), moving oppositely in risk-off markets. To explore these correlations, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started with real-time forex charts. The Bottom Line The British pound remains a dynamic and influential currency in forex markets, offering ample opportunities for traders at all levels. Its rich history, market responsiveness, and diverse trading pairs make it an essential choice for those looking to engage in global currency trading. To start trading the pound and other pairs with it, open an FXOpen account and take advantage of four advanced trading platforms, low costs, and fast execution speeds. FAQ What Is GBP Currency? GBP is the abbreviation for the British pound, the official currency of the United Kingdom. Often referred to as “British pound sterling,” it’s one of the oldest and most traded currencies globally, denoted by the pound symbol, £. Is GBP Getting Stronger Against the Euro? The pound’s strength against the euro fluctuates based on economic conditions in the UK and Eurozone. As of late 2024, the pound has been getting stronger against the euro recently due to a less restrictive monetary policy stance from the European Central Bank. What Country Has the Oldest Currency? The UK has the world’s oldest currency still in use. The pound sterling dates back over a thousand years, tracing its origins to the Anglo-Saxon period. When to Trade GBP Pairs? GBP pairs are most active during the London trading session, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. GMT. Volatility can increase when UK or US economic data is released. Which GBP Pair Is Most Volatile? GBP/JPY is typically the most volatile GBP pair, due to the yen’s role as a so-called safe-haven currency. It can experience larger price fluctuations compared to other GBP pairs. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
Education
by FXOpen
1
GbpusdGBP/USD struck a soft chord on Thursday, dumping over one percent on the outset of the new trading season and piercing through the 1.2400 handle for the first time in almost ten months. Market volumes remain thin following the midweek New Year’s holiday, but the orders coming through are on a decidedly risk-off stanceGBP/USD trades below the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, while fluctuating below the descending trend line coming from December 10. Although these technical signs suggest that the bearish bias remains intact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator recovers toward 50, reflecting a loss of momentum. On the upside, 1.2540-1.2550 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) aligns as first resistance area before 1.2575 (descending trend line) and 1.2615 (100-period SMA). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.2500 (round level, psychological level), 1.2440 (static level) and 1.2400 (static level, round levelGBP/USD closed in the red on Monday and Tuesday, pressured by the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength. Following the New Year break, the pair trades marginally higher on the day above 1.2500. Safe-haven flows dominated the action in financial markets toward the end of the year and helped the USD outperform its rivals. In the European morning on Thursday, US stock index futures rise between 0.5% and 0.7%, pointing to an improving risk mood
by KingForex078
Elliott Wave View: GBPUSD Short Term Remains BearishShort Term Elliott Wave view in GBPUSD suggests decline from 12.6.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 12.6.2024 high, wave ((i)) ended at 1.247 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 1.261 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Pair has turned lower in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as another impulse. Down from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 1.2548 and rally in wave ii ended at 1.2588. Pair resumed lower in wave iii towards 1.2507. Wave iv rally ended at 1.2548 and wave v lower ended at 1.2498 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. Rally in wave (ii) ended at 1.2607 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave (i), wave a ended at 1.2536 and wave b ended at 1.2502. Wave c higher ended at 1.2607 which completed wave (ii). Pair has turned lower in wave (iii). Down from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1.2504 and wave ii ended at 1.2569. Expect pair to extend lower to end wave iii, then it should rally in wave iv before turning lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.2614 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GBPUSD H4 | Falling from 50% Fibo?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2484, which is a pullback resistance close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.2370, a swing low support level. The stop loss will be at 1.2609, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD: No Signs of Reversal, Downtrend Here to Stay?Hey Realistic Traders, Is FX:GBPUSD Downtrend Here to Say? Let's dive in On the H4 timeframe, GBP/USD has consistently traded below the EMA-200 line, facing multiple rejections at this key level. We observed more than three attempts where the price tried to breach the EMA-200 but failed, reinforcing the continuation of the downtrend. Adding to this bearish outlook, a breakout from a rising wedge and symmetrical pattern has occurred, both of which typically signal strong bearish momentum. Furthermore, the MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover, providing additional confirmation of GBP/USD's downward trajectory. Given these strong technical signals, I foresee a downward movement toward the target at Target 1.23640. However, this bearish outlook hinges on the price maintaining below the critical stop-loss level at 1.26070. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. "Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GBPUSD".
Short
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
GBP/USD Analysis (8H Timeframe)The GBP/USD pair remains firmly in a bearish channel, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. While a short-term retracement is possible, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Key Points: The price is trading near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting potential temporary relief before resuming the downtrend. Resistance is noted at 1.2596, aligning with the upper retracement level of the recent move. Key support levels are identified at 1.2272 and 1.2079, which align with the channel's lower trajectory. Trading Plan: Consider selling rallies, particularly near 1.2596, if the retracement occurs. Target levels can be set at 1.2272 and 1.2079, with a stop-loss above 1.2596 for a risk-managed approach. 📉 "In a bearish trend, patience pays; trade with the trend, not against it."
Short
by Charts_M7M
GBPUSD // primary short trendThe valid trend is short on the W/D/H4 timeframes, and we are below the monthly impulse base. A break below the last H4 breakout, in line with the daily counter-impulse base, results in targeting the next daily support very close to the daily target fibo 138.2. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
Short
by TheMarketFlow
GBPUSD I Long opportunity from bottom of the channelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2