GBP/USD Bullish Channel Holding–Pullback Before the Next Leg Up?This is a 4-hour chart of the British Pound vs US Dollar (GBP/USD) from FXCM, showing a strong bullish market structure within a rising parallel channel.
🔍 Key Technical Insights:
Uptrend Channel: Price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows within a well-defined ascending channel.
Support Zones: Three horizontal levels are marked at 1.348, 1.333, and 1.326 — likely acting as short-term demand zones or reaction points.
Projection Path (Red Line): A pullback into the lower part of the channel (likely near 1.333–1.326 zone) is anticipated, followed by a bullish continuation toward the upper channel resistance.
🧭 Market Outlook:
Bias: Bullish while above channel support.
Buy Area: Ideal long setup may develop around the 1.333–1.326 support region.
Target Zone: Potential continuation toward 1.410+ if the structure holds.
This chart favors trend continuation after a correction, aligning with smart money accumulation and institutional flow behavior within a bullish channel.
GBPUSD trade ideas
GBP-USD Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair already
Made a rebound from the
Horizontal support level
Around 1.3431 from where
So we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP/USD – Where the real game beginsMost traders keep refreshing the chart, waiting for something obvious to happen. But here’s the thing...
The obvious move is never the most profitable one. The market rewards those who understand context, not just candlestick shapes.
Take a deeper look at this pair right now.
You’ll notice something subtle — but powerful.
📍 We’ve been consolidating right above a demand zone that’s been respected multiple times.
📉 Sellers tried to break it... failed.
📈 Buyers stepped in... quietly. No fireworks. Just clean defense.
This isn’t your average support line. This is where liquidity gets trapped, where retail gets impatient, and where smart money fills up before liftoff.
It’s the type of setup that doesn’t scream — it whispers. And if you’re listening, you know this isn’t random.
🔎 While most are distracted by noise, the structure is forming beneath the surface.
A slow coil of price, compression of volatility — and then... expansion.
And no, I won’t drop the entry, stop or TP here.
Because real traders don’t chase numbers — they read the narrative.
📚
#gbpusd #forexstrategy #institutionaltrading #smartmoneyflow #supplyanddemand #priceaction #marketpsychology #liquiditytrap #notforbeginners #telegramonly
Potential bearish drop?GBP/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3346
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3591
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.3346
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3314
1st Support: 1.3159
1st Resistance: 1.3566
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GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSD Weekly overview Jun 1, 2025 – Jun 7, 2025We are approaching a strong HTF reversal level from lower prices. It means we might have some unexpectable strong bearish players in the market. I'll take a little less than normal for the bullish trades.
While the mid-term overview indicates us a bullish trend some bearish move won't surprise me.
*******************************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
GBPUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
While the Bank of England has rate-cut expectations, markets are divided on the magnitude of the cut, and the UK economy faces uncertainties such as trade risks.
Uncertainties persist regarding the impact of U.S. economic data on the U.S. dollar’s strength, and the effects of Trump’s policies on the economic and monetary policies of both countries remain to be seen.
Technical Analysis:
Short-term momentum is weak, with MACD histogram continuing to show negative values, indicating strong bearish pressure. A failure to break above overhead resistance may extend the downward trend.
Key support lies near 1.13378, while resistance is seen around 1.13533.
Trading Recommendations:
Aggressive traders may initiate light short positions near the resistance zone.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@1.14000-1.13500
TP:1.13300
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GBP/USD Daily Chart – Approaching Key Reversal
📉 GBP/USD Daily Chart – Approaching Key Reversal Zone
Price has tapped into the major selling zone (around 1.38000), aligned with long-term trendline resistance.
🔻 Bearish Outlook Active:
If this level holds, we may see a rejection and a drop toward the demand zone near 1.29000–1.30000.
⚠️ Short-term buyers beware — this could be the last push before reversal.
💡 Watch for confirmation candles or a break of the minor support (yellow zone) to validate the move.
🗣️ Do you see a sell setup here, or are bulls still in control? Drop your view below 👇
#GBPUSD #ForexAnalysis #GreenFireForex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #ForexTrading
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GBP/USD – Sell Bias into NFP | Smart Money Play
Caption:
Price is rejecting a 1H inverse imbalance + FVG zone in premium, showing early signs of bearish flow. With NFP on deck, I'm expecting a draw on liquidity down into the Monthly FVG → 1H FVG/BB → 4H inverse IMB. Let price confirm via lower-timeframe CHoCH before executing. Volatility is likely to kick in mid-to-late week. A clean premium-to-discount is in play.
london break out strategy (my strategy) back test :2025 mayto learn is to share...
hello traders!
this is back test of london breakout strategy for gbp usd pair for month of the may.
i hope u read this see the idea that i had give me your comments and ideas ,maybe help me fix my mistakes, maybe it gives you some lead and etc. no more talking straight to the strategy ...
strategy summary the Strat focuses on breaking the range market of the asian session,
first u got to mark the high and low of the price between 4 am to 6 am utc then you have range that in the chart i showed like box , next we wait till 7 am utc , if price was out of the box zone we open a trade toward the trend( if it broke above you open a long and vise versa) or if it wasn't u simply wait for price to close above or below, then you open a trade with sl put on the opposite side of the box and profit set to 1.5 times of the sl. only one trade per day is acceptable .
there are some exception that you don't have to trade:
1.when there is bank holiday
2.when your sl would exceed 50 pip (that's high of a risk)
3. further effect of the news shall be studied that i didn't consider in this back test
I've put the results in an ai and asked it to analyze the results:
Summary Statistics
Total Trades: 19
Total Profit: +152.3 pips
Average Profit per Trade: +8.02 pips
Max Profit in a Trade: +49.0 pips
Max Loss in a Trade: -30.2 pips
Winning Trades: 10
Losing Trades: 9
Win Rate: 52.6%
Profit Factor: 1.74 (total gain / total loss)
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Goal of this ideas is track order flow.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️