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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Pound shrugs as UK economy grew by 0.2%The British pound is showing little movement on Friday in what has been a very quiet week for the currency. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3071, up 0.10% on the day and its lowest level. The UK economy showed slight improvement in August with a 0.2% m/m gain, after no growth in both June and July. This was in line with expectations and the pound’s reaction has been muted. Services, construction and manufacturing were all in positive territory, as the economy continues to show signs of growth. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1%, up from a revised 0.9% in August but shy of the market estimate of 1.4%. The slight rebound in the economy comes at a convenient time for the government, which will release the autumn Budget on October 30. The government is counting on the Bank of England to continue cutting rates in order to boost economic growth. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has said that kick-starting the weak UK economy is the “number one priority. The Bank of England delivered its first rate cut of the new cycle in August but stayed on the sidelines in September. The next meeting is on November 7 and the UK releases inflation and employment data ahead of the meeting, which will likely determine whether Bank policy makers feel comfortable making another quarter-point cut. The US wraps up the week with the producer price index for September. Headline PPI is expected to tick lower to 1.7% y/y, compared to 1.6% in August. The core rate, however, is projected to rise to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in August. With inflation largely beaten, the Federal Reserve’s primary focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Still, an unexpected PPI reading in either direction could have an impact on the movement of the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3058. Above, there is resistance at 1.3095 1.3023 and 1.2986 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Cable's continuation lower questionable but watch upcoming dataGBPUSD has moved somewhat similarly to EURUSD recently with a few notable exceptions. The downward movement has been more vigorous here due to the simultaneous shifts in central banks’ outlooks: the Bank of England could start cutting faster according to some expectations while it seems clear now that the Fed won’t cut more than four times in total by the end of the year. The technical picture probably doesn’t support immediate further losses. The price is just above the important psychological area of $1.30 and close to the 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement (matching the 61.8% weekly) with clear selling saturation but not especially high volume of selling. The British job report will come out on Tuesday 15 October and inflation the following day. These releases, especially the latter, are centrally important for determining whether cable might settle into a range or try to bounce in the next few days. A sustained movement below $1.30 seems unlikely for now but it’s possible if the data on 15 and 16 October are notably disappointing. The opinions here are personal to the writer; they do not reflect those of Exness or Trading View.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
GBP/USD Recovery Stalls Amid Mixed U.S. Data but....The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains in early Friday trading after closing marginally lower on Thursday. Although there is potential for the pair to extend its recovery, our outlook remains firmly on the bearish side. Recent U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, has added to the complexity of market dynamics, impacting both the British pound and the U.S. dollar as traders assess the implications for future monetary policy. U.S. Inflation and Labor Market Update On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released key inflation data, revealing a slight softening in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Year-over-year, inflation ticked down to 2.4% in September, a small decline from August’s 2.5%. While this offered some relief to inflation hawks, the core CPI—excluding the more volatile food and energy prices—rose by 3.3% on an annual basis, higher than the market's forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.3%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. Adding to the mix, the latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report showed a significant rise to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, up from 225,000 the previous week. This unexpected jump has revived concerns over a potential cooling in the labor market, complicating the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy. While rising jobless claims could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, persistent core inflation suggests that the Fed may hesitate to loosen monetary policy aggressively. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers valuable insights into market positioning. The data shows that retail traders are aggressively long, while "smart money"—institutional investors—remains flat, indicating a lack of commitment to the bullish side. This divergence suggests that the broader market sentiment still leans bearish, even as the GBP/USD attempts to recover. For now, we are holding off on opening any positions, instead waiting for a clearer opportunity to emerge. Our focus is on a possible price drop toward a key demand area, where we plan to evaluate the conditions for a potential long setup. This level would provide a more favorable risk-reward scenario to enter a position aligned with a recovery strategy. Conclusion While the GBP/USD has shown early signs of a potential recovery, the broader outlook remains bearish, with mixed U.S. economic data adding uncertainty to the market's direction. The softening inflation figure offers some hope for a dovish shift in the Fed's policy, but the persistently high core CPI and rising jobless claims complicate the situation. Until clearer signals emerge, our strategy is to wait for a deeper price drop toward a demand area to position ourselves for a potential rebound. In the meantime, traders are advised to remain cautious, as volatile data releases and shifting market sentiment could lead to sudden swings in the GBP/USD pair in the coming sessions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD correction short, then longHello, i think we are forming a head and shoulder pattern on the Day timefram. Looks like right now we are going to make the wave B to the 1.32712 level and then the wave C wich will bring us down to our trendline (also the end of wave 4 of wave 3) So for now ill try to short it down from 1.32712 to the 1.26259 level. There i will enter a long with my stops below wave 2 of wave 3 (1.24453) Take profit at 1.41705. Let me know if you see it different.
Long
by G1D3onn
GBPUSD Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.307. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.312. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GBPUSD - Old FVG Still Pays!Studying the consequent encroachment of the daily fair value gap is where you are able to identify whether there is a stronger likelihood for daily highs to be targeted. 5 consecutive days of bearish price action for cable and you think it wouldn't be healthy for a minor relief rally to occur up to 1.31424? Manipulation before distribution and right now, I feel that the accumulation has already taken place inside of the daily FVG with the manipulation next in line, first targeting the most immediate daily high which is 1.31341.
Short
by LegendSince
GBPUSD Analysis: Slightly Bullish Bias on October 11, 2024The GBPUSD pair is expected to exhibit a slightly bullish bias on October 11, 2024, due to a mix of both fundamental drivers and current market conditions. Traders and investors should closely monitor these factors as they play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction today. Key Fundamental Drivers: 1. UK Economic Data: - The recent release of stronger-than-expected UK GDP data has supported the British Pound. Economic growth in the UK beat market expectations, suggesting resilience in the economy amid ongoing global uncertainties. This data has led to increased demand for the GBP, pushing it slightly higher against the USD. 2. BoE Interest Rate Outlook: - The Bank of England (BoE) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, with some policymakers hinting at potential rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist. With inflation still above the 2% target, the possibility of future tightening by the BoE is supporting the pound, making it attractive to investors betting on further rate hikes. 3. US Dollar Weakness: - The US Dollar has shown signs of weakening amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its aggressive rate hikes. Market participants have started to factor in a more dovish stance from the Fed, reducing the dollar’s appeal and providing room for GBPUSD to edge higher. 4. Geopolitical Factors: - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to a risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving flows into safe-haven assets. However, as markets stabilize, some of the initial flight to the USD has subsided, allowing the GBP to regain some ground. Current Market Sentiment: - Technical Indicators suggest that GBPUSD is trading near a key support level around 1.2150, which could act as a springboard for further upside movement. With the pair holding above this critical support zone, bullish traders may seize the opportunity to push prices higher. - RSI on the 4-hour chart is hovering near 50, indicating a potential neutral-to-bullish momentum shift. Should momentum build, the pair could target the 1.2250 resistance level in the short term. - Market positioning indicates that traders are moderately long on the pound, anticipating further recovery. This sentiment aligns with the overall slightly bullish outlook for the day. Conclusion: In conclusion, the GBPUSD pair is expected to maintain a slightly bullish bias today, driven by the combination of stronger UK economic data, a hawkish Bank of England, and a softening US Dollar. While geopolitical risks and market volatility may cause short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for the day leans towards the upside. Traders should look for opportunities to capitalize on potential bullish momentum, especially if GBPUSD breaks above key resistance levels. Keywords for SEO Optimization: - GBPUSD analysis - GBPUSD forecast - GBPUSD outlook - British Pound to USD - UK GDP impact on GBPUSD - Bank of England rate hike - Fed interest rate policy - GBPUSD technical analysis - Forex market analysis - Forex trading tips - Currency pair trading strategy This GBPUSD analysis provides key insights into today’s trading opportunities, highlighting fundamental factors and market conditions driving the pair. Stay tuned for more updates on forex trading strategies and analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 11, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rebound from the 1.30200 area or one-month low and has been fluctuating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices are currently hanging around the mid-1.30000 area, unchanged for the day, and seem vulnerable to a continuation of the recent corrective decline from the highest level since March 2022 reached last month. US initial jobless claims data released on Thursday pointed to signs of weakness in the US labor market and suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates. This kept the US Dollar (USD) on the defensive below its highest level since mid-August and provided some support for the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, investors seem to have already fully appreciated the possibility of more aggressive Fed policy easing. These expectations were confirmed by the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and stronger than expected US consumer inflation data. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks associated with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East serve as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit GBP/USD growth. From the latest developments: the Israeli army claimed to have killed the top commander of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. This, as well as market confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) may be about to accelerate its rate cut cycle, could continue to undermine the British Pound and keep the currency pair under control. Market participants are now awaiting the release of UK macroeconomic data, including monthly GDP, to provide some momentum. However, the focus will remain on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be released later in the North American session. In addition, on the economic front, the US will release preliminary data on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. This data, along with the speeches of influential FOMC members, will stimulate demand for the US dollar and allow traders to take advantage of short-term opportunities in the GBP/USD pair on the last day of the week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD: Key Levels and Market UncertaintyThe analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates a context of uncertainty, with the British pound (GBP) seeking support from relatively subdued demand for the US dollar (USD) but lacking clear bullish pressure. The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and key economic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, the dollar gained strength. The minutes revealed that most FOMC members supported a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, but with caution regarding the future pace of easing, sending a more "hawkish" signal than expected and dampening the prospects for immediate further easing. The pound remains under pressure, as the market expects the BoE to continue with a more accommodative policy, which limits the potential appreciation of the GBP. However, UK economic data could provide short-term support if it surprises to the upside. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has some key static support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000 (a psychologically important round level), and 1.2940, which could act as deeper support. On the resistance side, 1.3100 corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend and could be a barrier for bulls, with the next resistance at 1.3170, located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing the next hurdle in the event of a trend reversal.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1