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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Pound Hits Three-Week High as Markets Await BoE CutThe British pound rose above $1.25, its highest since January 7, as the US dollar weakened and the focus shifted to the Bank of England’s Thursday decision. Policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.5%, reflecting slowing growth and easing services inflation. Market sentiment remained cautious over US tariffs, with concerns about a US-China trade conflict impacting global stability. Meanwhile, UK input price inflation hit an 18-month high in January, according to the latest PMI report. The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
by zForexcom
Breakout Trap or Trend Reversal? What the Market is Telling Us The Bank of England looks set to cut interest rates on Thursday for only the third time since 2020. During its December meeting, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to maintain the current rates. Currently, the BoE’s benchmark bank rate stands at 4.75%, the highest among major developed economies. A widely expected cut of 25bps would bring it closer to the U.S Federal Reserve’s 4.25-4.5% range. Moreover, the market has largely priced in the possibility of a 25bps rate cut. However, the BoE remains cautious about inflationary pressures. The rate-cutting cycle is entering a more challenging stage, as a rebound in energy prices and a significant rise in labor costs could push inflation to 3.5% by April. In December, inflation was recorded at 2.5%, exceeding the BoE’s 2% target. From a technical analysis perspective, the recent price action for MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD has broken through the descending channel, forming a bullish trend as indicated by the formation of higher lows and higher highs. However, the price is currently testing the rectangular resistance zone. If the price manages to break through this resistance, it is highly likely to gain bullish momentum, driving the price higher. Conversely, if this resistance zone successfully blocks the price from moving higher, the bearish momentum may regain control, driving the price downward. RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618). In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions: - Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points. - Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement. Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%. What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. - Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. - Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. - Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions? While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels. - Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react. - Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point. - Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations. - Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback. - Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance. - Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level. - Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable. - Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed. Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy. - Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices. - Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations. - Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance. - Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making. - Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market. - Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold. - Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy. - Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. - Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck! FAQ How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement. How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions? The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets. What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions? Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
7
Weekly CLS, H4 OB nested in WOB, Model 2Technically, the Weekly CLS is still in play, though I must admit I'm not entirely confident with this idea at the moment. The chart looks clear, but what truly challenges me sticking to my trading plan is emotions and the external noise: ➡️The upward move was sharp. What if it reverses? ➡️I've already lost on this idea; I don't want to lose more. ➡️There’s Big GBP news today... what if that changes everything? ➡️NFP Tomorrow, what if I will be stuck in a position I do not want to be? These doubts are natural even experienced traders face them. You can’t eliminate any emotions. They still will be coming. But you can learn to recognize them and manage them. It will give you control and strength in your trading journey. Stay focused, stay disciplined, and let your strategy lead the way. Don't hesitate to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? is the smart money of all markets. This company aggregates capital from the biggest investment banks and central banks. Its daily volume is over 6.5 trillion. CLS operates in specific modes and times. By understanding their models, we get an unfair advantage against others with fantastic precision for your entries and mechanical definition of the targets. Follow me and pay attention to my model 1 and 2. It's the key to the markets. None of the strategies of the world has a 100%-win rate and I'm just a human. We make big profits, but sometimes we can miss something or make mistakes. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps you to become a better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave Hunter ⚔
by David_Perk
10
GBP/USD Analysis – H1 Prediction for 06/02/2025GBP/USD Analysis – H1 Outlook for 06/02/2025 📉 Bearish Bias Expected 🔹 Current Price: 1.24876 🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels: 0.618: 1.24965 (Resistance) 0.786: 1.24820 (Critical Level) 🔹 Market Structure: Break of Structure (BOS) Confirmed Fair Value Gaps (FVG) Below Price Expected Price Drop to 1.24633-1.24684 Zone Deeper Target: 1.23738-1.23741 🔹 Trading Plan: ✅ If price respects 1.24876 resistance, expect further downside. ✅ If price reclaims 1.2506, bearish bias weakens. #GBPUSD #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #FVG #PriceAction #ForexAnalysis
Short
by FXFOREVER_87
GBPUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.24679, which aligns with an overlap support level and the previous breakout zone. This area is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bullish setup. Our take profit is set at 1.25628, near a previous resistance level, where price may face selling pressure. The stop loss is placed at 1.23769, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, allowing room for price fluctuations while maintaining the bullish outlook. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
GBPUSD InsightWelcome, Subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - Japan’s real wages, excluding the impact of December’s price fluctuations, rose by 0.6% year-over-year for the second consecutive month. The increase in real wages has drawn attention to the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike. - The Eurozone's January composite PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.6 in the previous month, an increase of 0.6 points, indicating an expansion in the private sector, including manufacturing and services. - According to the U.S. ADP National Employment Report, private employment increased by 183,000 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI for January fell to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month. - Considering signs of economic weakness in the U.K. and the potential for short-term inflationary pressures, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its first monetary policy meeting of the year. Key Economic Events This Week + February 6: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision + February 7: U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate GBP/USD Chart Analysis The pair recently found support around the 1.21000 level and rebounded, recovering up to 1.25000. If it successfully breaks through this resistance zone, further upside toward 1.27000 could be expected. However, if it faces resistance at 1.25000, there is a high probability of a decline toward 1.20000. Since the Bank of England’s rate decision is scheduled for today, monitoring price action around the 1.25000 level will be crucial in determining the short-term trend.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Bullish continuation?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 1.2475 1st Support: 1.2393 1st Resistance: 1.2611 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
GBPUSDThe upcoming economic data print and the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decisions are likely to have a significant impact on the GBP/USD trading directional bias tomorrow. Key Economic Data and Expectations BoE Monetary Policy Report: Official Bank Rate: The forecast indicates a reduction from 4.75% to 4.50%, supported by a voting split of 0-8-1 forecast . This suggests a strong consensus for easing, which is expected to weaken the GBP. Market Implication: A rate cut typically leads to a depreciation of the currency as lower interest rates reduce returns on investments denominated in that currency. This could lead to bearish sentiment for GBP against the USD. United states data print figure and technical outlook Challenger Job Cuts y/y: Current Figure: 11.4% Market Implication: A high percentage of job cuts may indicate economic weakness, potentially leading to a bearish sentiment towards the USD if it signals broader labor market issues. Unemployment Claims:Forecast 214K (previously 207K) Market Implication: An increase in claims could suggest a weakening labor market, which may further support bearish sentiment for the USD if actual claims exceed forecasts. Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q: Forecast: 1.5% (previously 2.2%) Market Implication: A lower productivity figure could indicate economic slowdown, contributing to a bearish outlook for the USD. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs q/q: Forecast: 3.4% (previously 0.8%) Market Implication: Rising labor costs could raise inflation concerns, potentially leading to speculation about future Federal Reserve rate hikes if inflation pressures mount. Directional Bias for GBP/USD tomorrow Given these factors, here’s how they could affect the GBP/USD pair: Bearish Sentiment for GBP: The anticipated rate cut by the BoE under Andrew Bailey is likely to create bearish sentiment for the GBP, especially if accompanied by dovish commentary about future economic conditions and inflation projections. Mixed Signals for USD: The U.S. data releases present mixed signals. If unemployment claims rise significantly or productivity falls short of expectations, it could weaken the USD, countering some of the bearish pressure on GBP. Technical Analysis Current technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD is facing resistance around key levels, with potential support if supply breaks structure . If the BoE's actions lead to a significant drop in GBP, traders may look for opportunities to sell around resistance levels or buy at support levels depending on how price action unfolds after the data releases. Conclusion Overall, tomorrow's trading directional bias for GBP/USD is likely to lean bearish due to anticipated BoE rate cuts, but mixed U.S. labor market signals could provide some support for the pair if they indicate economic weakness in the U.S. i will be watching closely both central banks communications and economic data releases for clearer directional signals on timing. trade with caution.
by Shavyfxhub
Bullish momentum to extend?GBP?USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.2466 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.2398 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.2581 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
DAY 17: GBPUSD and DXY update.Today we had PMI services data and unemployment change figures which were mixed for the dollar.This week we have faced a declining dollar up from weekly highs on Monday @ 110.00. So before NFP data on Friday I expect GBPUSD price to go to record new highs close to 1.26 before we get further momentum. Waiting on Friday's data to get monthly bias on USD based pairs. During this period, what's important is securing your capital so as not to miss important moves in the market and Risk Management in case of slippage because we are trading in very volatile times. All the luck traders.
by Muchangi