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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Bullish bounce?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.3395 1st Support: 1.3317 1st Resistance: 1.3583 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD Near Key Resistance – Watching for PullbackGBPUSD has surged to test the 1.3538 resistance, forming a strong impulsive rally supported by higher lows and tight bullish consolidation patterns. However, price is now pressing into a major horizontal resistance and rising trendline, setting up for either continuation or correction. Key Levels: Major Resistance: 1.35389 (previous high, potential double top) Trendline Support: ~1.3440 (ascending structure) Downside Target (if break occurs): 1.3140 (range floor) Scenarios to Watch: 🔹 Bearish Scenario (Primary Watch) Price reacts to 1.3538 and forms a rejection candle Break of the ascending trendline may trigger a retracement Downside target zones: 1.3440 (initial structure) 1.3140 (major support zone) 🔹 Bullish Breakout (Alternate Scenario) Clean break and close above 1.3538 Would invalidate short-term correction and open path to new highs Momentum continuation possible toward 1.3600–1.3700 Pattern Notes: Bullish structure with minor flags and wedges in the uptrend But rally is extended and hitting overbought territory near resistance RSI divergence or reversal patterns around this level would strengthen short case Conclusion: 📌 GBPUSD is at a major resistance. Watch for rejection or breakout. 📌 If it holds below 1.3538 and breaks trendline, short setup is favored. 📌 If it breaks out above 1.3538 with volume, stay out of shorts and wait for retest.
Short
by ultreosforex
5
GBP/USD BREAKOUT SIGNAL FOR BULLISH CONTINUATION?We were anticipating a breakout of range last week which we finally saw to the upside. The range lasted over a week and the breakout to the upside was a significant signal of bullish strength in price. We are clear on the fact that we are still in a bullish trend and the current correction in price is likely to prepare us for a bull run with no less than 200 pips in sight. Let's observe patiently and let's see how price reacts so we can cash in on any potential move.
Long
by jefferson_the_chartist
1
GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME) Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management. Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP. Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning. Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead. USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision. Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114). Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely. 2. Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long. Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long. Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run. 3. Historical Seasonality May shows a historically bearish tendency: 10-Year Avg: -2.22% 5-Year Avg: -1.60% 2-Year Avg: -0.65% Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals. 4. Technical Analysis Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support. A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided. The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward. Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well. Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction. 5. Market Depth There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive. This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution. Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction. 🎯 Operational Outlook Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600 Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176 Likely Scenarios: Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection. A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750. A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPUSD BUY TRADE PLAN🔥GBP/USD – May 28, 2025 📋 Plan Overview Table Type Direction Confidence R:R Status Swing Trade Buy 75% 2.8:1 Active 📈 Market Bias & Type Bias: Reversal from short-term sell-off into key support Type: Bullish reversal setup off demand zone and daily structure support 🔰 Confidence Level – 75% 🔹 H4 demand zone test (confirmed) 🔹 Price respecting higher low structure on D1 🔹 Momentum divergence building on H1 🔹 RSI oversold on intraday 📍 Entry Zones Zone Type Price Range Primary 1.3490 – 1.3510 Secondary 1.3450 – 1.3470 ❗ Stop Loss (SL) Primary SL: 1.3440 (below secondary zone) Secondary SL: 1.3400 (invalidates D1 HL structure) SL Reasoning: Below structural swing low and untested H4 imbalance. 🎯 Take Profit Targets Target Price Reason TP1 1.3580 Local supply on H1 TP2 1.3640 Previous high – intraday TP3 1.3700 Major D1 resistance 🧠 Management Strategy 💼 Risk: 1.0% per setup zone 🧱 Move SL to BE at TP1 🔁 Scale in from secondary zone if price wicks down 📉 If both zones are tagged, average price improves R:R ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist Criteria Status Bullish candle M15+ ✅ Retest of demand ✅ NY/LDN session 🔄 Volume spike ✅ ⏳ Validity H1 Structure: Valid 12–16 hours H4 Structure: Valid 48–72 hours ❌ Invalidation Conditions Daily close below 1.3400 Momentum closes below D1 demand 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot 🔹 USD CPI softening, Fed expectations for pause 🔹 GBP firm labor market data, but political noise lingering 🔹 Market still pricing GBP stronger mid-term 🔹 Risk-on equity sentiment supporting GBP pairs short-term 📋 Final Trade Summary This trade plan for GBP/USD aligns with a confluence of intraday demand, bullish D1 structure, and confirmed short-term exhaustion. We're watching for NY session confirmation, with entry zone proximity creating a favorable R:R on both scale levels.
Long
by jibkhan111
GBP/USD – Trendline Liquidity Grab and Reversal SetupPrice has been respecting a major ascending trendline, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, it looks like we’ve had a liquidity grab below the trendline, sweeping early buyers and stop losses. I'm watching this zone closely for a potential fakeout, followed by a bullish reaction. This area aligns with: Major ascending trendline support Previous structure level High-probability liquidity zone If price reclaims the trendline with strong bullish momentum, I’ll be looking for buy confirmations to ride the next leg up. A clean rejection and break of short-term bearish structure would strengthen the setup. Key Notes: Buy zone highlighted Waiting for confirmation before entry Strong RR if price respects the zone Invalid if price closes below the zone with strong bearish pressure Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently!
Long
by loredana99
GBPUSD1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (as of recent data, driven by strong UK retail sales and elevated long-term yields). US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21, 2025, reflecting fiscal concerns and Fed rate cut expectations). 2. Interest Rate Differential (IRD) The yield spread between UK and US 10-year bonds is:4.77%(GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23% 4.77% (GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23% This modest differential favors the British pound, as UK bonds offer a slightly higher return than US Treasuries. 3. Carry Trade Advantage The +0.23% yield spread makes it marginally attractive for investors to borrow in USD (lower yield) and invest in GBP-denominated assets (higher yield). However, the narrow spread limits significant carry trade profits compared to higher-yielding currency pairs. GBP strength is further supported by strong UK economic data (e.g., April retail sales up 1.2% MoM) and easing UK-EU trade barriers. 4. Key Factors Influencing the Differential Bank of England Policy: The BoE cut rates to 4.25% in May 2025 but maintains a cautious stance. Further cuts could pressure gilt yields lower. Federal Reserve Outlook: Markets price in two Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which may reduce the US yield advantage. UK Fiscal Risks: High public debt levels (30-year gilt yields >5.5%) and potential fiscal pressures could weigh on GBP if investor confidence wanes. Summary Table Metric UK (GBP) US (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.54% Interest Rate Differential +0.23% (GBP over USD) — Carry Trade Appeal Modest, supported by GBP strength — Conclusion The 0.23% yield advantage for GBP provides limited carry trade incentives, but stronger UK economic data and technical bullishness in GBP/USD reinforce near-term GBP strength. UK fiscal sustainability: Elevated long-term yields pose risks to growth and currency stability. While the carry trade offers marginal gains, GBP’s upside is primarily driven by macroeconomic outperformance and reduced trade barriers with the EU. #GBPUSD
Short
by Shavyfxhub
1
GBP/USD - Potential Bearish Reversal Setup The price recently broke above a long-term trendline but showed signs of exhaustion near a key resistance zone. I expect a potential reversal from the current level, targeting the Fibonacci retracement zones at: 0.38 Fibo: Possible short-term bounce area 0.78 Fibo: Final target zone for the bearish move The current structure suggests a fake breakout followed by a deeper correction. I’ll be watching for bearish confirmation patterns on the lower timeframes before entering.
Short
by alirezaameri677
GBPUSD Will Fall! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.355. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.336. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE DataGBPUSD PLAN – MAY 27 | Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE Data GBPUSD is currently testing a critical resistance zone near 1.3570, forming a potential Double Top pattern. As markets await this week’s US Core PCE inflation release, the pair may be at risk of a short-term pullback. 🌍 MACRO FUNDAMENTALS USD Rebounds Slightly ahead of April’s PCE inflation report – a key Fed inflation gauge due this Friday. GBP Under Pressure as dovish tones from Bank of England (BoE) officials signal a potential pause in rate hikes. UK Political Uncertainty and sluggish EU-UK trade talks continue to dampen investor confidence in the pound. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Price Structure: GBPUSD surged from 1.3446 support but is now facing resistance near 1.3570, where a Double Top formation is emerging. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3570 – 1.3580 (previous high and psychological barrier) Support 1: 1.3496 (confluence of EMA89 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) Support 2: 1.3446 Indicators: EMA13, EMA34 show early signs of bearish crossover on the 30-minute chart. RSI approaches overbought territory, hinting at potential bearish divergence. 🎯 TRADE SETUP (IF PRICE REJECTS 1.3570) 🔻 SELL SETUP Entry: 1.3570 – 1.3550 Stop-Loss: 1.3595 Take-Profit Targets: TP1: 1.3496 TP2: 1.3446 📌 A bullish breakout only becomes valid if price closes strongly above 1.3590 on the H1 chart. 🧠 STRATEGIC NOTES Wait for a clear reaction or bearish confirmation near 1.3570 before entering trades. Avoid chasing trades mid-range; focus on clean breakouts or rejections. PCE data may trigger volatility — manage risk tightly and prepare for directional momentum. 👉 What do you think of this Double Top scenario? Will GBPUSD reject or break through resistance? Drop your analysis below and follow for daily structured plans!
Short
by MMFlowTrading