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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Anybody in for a reversal with me?Well, starting with the downtrend structure we had from the 1.34xx seems broken. Apparently, our beloved cable had to take all those early bulls out before it could go back reclaiming money it left at supply. There are multiple evidences why I think we should be buying GBPUSD. Amongst the most prominent ones, we have: 1- Price being protected (twice) at the demand area 2- BOE held the rates, it does not mean UK is doing great at other variables such as inflation, trade balance, debt, job market etc., it just means they plan to maintain the burden on businesses and public with relatively higher mark ups on public lending. It might be a double edged sword but that is pretty much how capitalist economies maintain and control their inflation rates. 3- Market has not claimed the liquidity at marked supply area ever since it started dropping, so this might be a good start 4- This one might not have matured just yet, but it is diverging bullish here This is my idea for adding small long positions starting Monday post intraday pullback, if you think I might be wrong, please let me know in the comments with proper reasoning. (saying because I need a reason to reconsider which I might be unable to see lol) Cheers!
Long
by Uzi-Trades-Forex
1
GBPUSD Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.2529 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.2605 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2
GBPUSD on the way to 1.34The currency pair in focus is GBP/USD, representing the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD). The current price of the pair is 1.25, meaning 1 British Pound is worth 1.25 US Dollars. The target price is 1.34, indicating an expected price movement to 1.34, where the British Pound will be worth 1.34 US Dollars. The gain in pips is 400, meaning the price is anticipated to rise by 400 pips, with each pip representing a small movement in the exchange rate. The strategy being followed is based on support and resistance levels, which are key concepts in technical analysis. Support refers to a price level where the pair tends to find buying interest, while resistance represents a price level where selling interest is typically strong. This suggests the pair has recently bounced from a support level and is approaching a resistance level. If the price breaks through the resistance, it could move toward the target price. The pattern of support and resistance helps traders identify potential entry and exit points, guiding them towards achieving the 400-pip gain. This strategy relies on observing price trends and historical levels of support and resistance to predict future price movements. Good Volume Expecting.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 176The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental & Technical PreviewFundamental analysis WHSELFINVEST:GBPUSD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing. While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY. GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD. GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors Growth The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget. Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit. The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate. The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%. Inflation In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans. Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs. The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre. Will the BoE cut rates in 2025? At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February. The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound. However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025. GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025. At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected. Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025. A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power. Political factors Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025? At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year. The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027. The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July. However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year. Technical analysis Overview The GBP/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend since its peak in May 2021, marked by a swing high of ~1.4205 and a subsequent low of ~1.1800 in September 2022. The recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating near key psychological and technical levels, hinting at potential future moves. This analysis incorporates a refined Fibonacci retracement that spans the broader bearish cycle for a more holistic perspective. Long-Term Fibonacci Analysis The updated Fibonacci retracement has been applied from the May 2021 high of ~1.4205 to the September 2022 low of ~1.1800. This adjustment provides a better representation of the long-term market structure and aligns key levels with historical price reactions: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.4007): This level aligns closely with the psychological 1.4000 level, making it a key resistance area should the pair see a bullish recovery. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.3884): This level historically coincides with areas of consolidation and resistance, suggesting it could act as a ceiling for mid-term rallies. 50% Retracement Level (~1.3785): Situated near prior structural highs, this is a crucial midpoint for evaluating the strength of any bullish correction. 61.8% Retracement Level (~1.3660): Often referred to as the "golden ratio," this level aligns with significant historical resistance, further reinforcing its importance. 78.6% Retracement Level (~1.3548): This deeper retracement could serve as an area of rejection in a bullish recovery scenario. Short-Term Impulse Fibonacci Analysis Focusing on the most recent bearish impulse, the Fibonacci retracement spans from the swing high of 1.3170 (August 2023) to the recent low of 1.2384. Key levels from this retracement include: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.2612): The price has hovered around this level recently, suggesting it acts as a local resistance point. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.2785): This level is bolstered by confluence with horizontal resistance, making it a critical test for bullish momentum. 50% Retracement Level (~1.2850): Represents a midpoint and potential short-term rejection area. 1.618 Fibonacci Extension (~1.2139): This provides a logical downside target should the bearish trend continue. 3.618 and 4.236 Extensions (~1.1164 and ~1.0644): These deeper levels indicate the potential for significant bearish continuation in the long term. Other technical indicators Moving Averages The 21-week SMA (~1.2924) remains above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-week SMA (~1.2785) coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse, reinforcing its importance. RSI and MACD The RSI (47.96) is below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for divergence near key Fibonacci levels. The MACD histogram is negative, with no signs of an imminent crossover, confirming bearish pressure. Support and Resistance Zones Key Resistance Levels 1.2612: Recent price interactions suggest this is a significant short-term barrier. 1.2785: The 38.2% retracement of the impulse move, coinciding with the 50-week SMA. 1.3000: A psychological level with historical significance. 1.4000: The 23.6% retracement of the broader move and a long-term target for bullish recovery. Key Support Levels 1.2384: The recent swing low. 1.2139: The 1.618 extension of the recent impulse move. 1.2000: A critical psychological threshold. 1.1164 and 1.0644: Deeper Fibonacci extensions providing long-term bearish targets. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, with key levels from the updated Fibonacci retracement offering valuable insights for both potential reversals and continuation scenarios. Traders should monitor the interaction of price with the 1.2612 and 1.2785 resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the downside targets of 1.2139 and below. The RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum, while moving averages provide additional context for dynamic support and resistance. A multi-timeframe approach will be crucial in navigating this pair over the coming months, with the broader trend still probably favoring the bears. -- written by Fiona Cincotta & WH SelfInvest
Short
by WHSelfInvest
GBP/USD "The Cable" Forex Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/USD "The Cable" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : You can enter a short trade at any point, however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high/low level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest high level. Goal 🎯: 1.23800 (or) Escape before the goal Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Short
by Thief_Trader
GBPUSD H1 I Falling from the 50% Fibo?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2554, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.2489, which is a multi-swing low support level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.2609, an overlap resistance High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 235The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA