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UK inflation surprise and US tax bill fuel GBPUSD breakoutGBPUSD just broke out. In this video, we explain how UK inflation and the US tax bill pushed it higher. We also look at the technical setup, the double top breakout, and the target at 1.4778. Will this rally last or is it a trap? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
British Pound resumes rally as retail sales jumpThe British pound has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3484, up 0.49% on the day. The pound has gained 1.5% this week and is trading at levels not seen since Feb. 2022. The markets were expecting a banner reading from April retail sales but the actual numbers crushed the forecast. Annual retail sales surged 5%, up from a downwardly revised 1.9% and above the market estimate of 4.5%. This marked the fastest pace of growth since Feb. 2022. Monthly, retail sales climbed 1.2%, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in March and blowing past the market estimate of 0.2%. The surge was driven by sharp gains in food store sales and department stores, as favorable weather brought out consumers. The UK economy has been struggling and strong consumer spending has been a bright spot. Monthly retail sales have now increased for four straight months, which last occurred in 2020. The UK consumer spending more and is showing more optimism. The GfK consumer confidence index for May improved to -20 from -23 and beat the market estimate of -22. The improvement is likely a result of the de-escalation in global trade tensions as well as the Bank of England rate cut in early May. The impressive retail sales report, together with higher-than-expected inflation in April will raise expectations for the BoE to hold rates at its next meeting on June 18. There are no key US releases today but we'll hear from three FOMC members. There has been plenty of Fedspeak this week, with a message that the US tariffs will take a toll on the US economy, even with the temporary deal with China, and that the Fed favors a wait-and-see stance before further rate cuts. GBP/USD has broken above several resistance lines and is putting pressure in resistance at 1.3493. There is support at 1.3393 and 1.3367
by OANDA
GBPUSDUK 10-Year Gilt Yield The UK 10-year gilt yield is approximately 4.73% to 4.77%, recently hitting its highest level since April 2025. This rise is driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data, with April CPI at 3.5% year-on-year, above forecasts, and core inflation at 3.8%. Market expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have been scaled back significantly, with only about 34 basis points of cuts priced in for 2025, down from earlier expectations of two cuts. The yield has risen from around 4.11% a year ago to near 4.76% now, reflecting tightening monetary conditions and inflation concerns. US 10-Year Treasury Yield While the exact current US 10-year Treasury yield was not provided in the search results, as of recent data in 2025, it generally trades around 4.5% to 4.6%. This is slightly lower than the UK 10-year gilt yield, indicating a positive interest rate differential in favor of GBP over USD. Interest Rate Differential (GBPUSD) With UK 10-year gilt yields near 4.75% and US 10-year Treasury yields around 4.5%, the interest rate differential is roughly +0.25% in favor of GBP. This differential supports GBP strength against USD, as higher yields attract capital inflows into GBP-denominated assets. Summary Table Country 10-Year Bond Yield (%) United Kingdom ~4.75 United States ~4.50 Interest Rate Differential (GBP - USD) ~+0.25% Implications for GBPUSD The higher UK bond yields relative to US yields provide a yield advantage for GBP, which tends to support GBPUSD appreciation. However, market participants also weigh other factors such as economic growth prospects, central bank policy outlooks, and geopolitical risks. The reduced expectation of BoE rate cuts and persistent inflation underpin gilt yields and GBP strength. In conclusion: As of May 23, 2025, the UK 10-year gilt yield at about 4.75% versus the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.5% creates a modest positive interest rate differential favoring GBPUSD, supporting the British pound against the US dollar in the current market environment.
by Shavyfxhub
GBP/USD 1.3500 Test, Weekly OverboughtGBP/USD has just done something that hasn't happened in three years, trading above the 1.3500 level. The last time this happened in the pair was before the Federal Reserve began the rate hike campaign in 2022, and over the past four months its been a strong reversal of more than 1,400 pips as USD bears have taken back over. At this point weekly RSI is showing in overbought territory which makes the prospect of chasing the pair higher, particularly after the first test of a major psychological level, as a more complicated endeavor. This doesn't rule out shorter-term momentum or trend strategies, however, and given the amount of resistance that had showed at the Fibonacci level of 1.3414, there's a very attractive spot for higher-low support to show. That level held the highs last year, and then again in April. - js
by FOREXcom
Is GBP/USD rally sustainable ahead of this weeks key CPI data?The GBP/USD pair has shown continued strength this week, briefly retesting the 1.3400 level for the second time in as many weeks. However, this zone remains a strong resistance area, and bulls have struggled to establish a sustained breakout above it. During the Asian session this morning, the pair saw some profit-taking, leading to a retracement toward 1.3350, as traders turn cautious ahead of key UK and UK macroeconomic data. Markets are particularly focused on the upcoming UK core CPI data, where expectations point to a YoY rise to 3.7% from 3.4% previously. A hotter than expected print could reinforce the case for the BOJ to delay rate cuts. Also on the radar are the S&P Global PMIs for May. Forecasts suggest a decline in both manufacturing and services activity, which, if confirmed, may reignite concerns over slowing economic momentum in the U.S., possibly offsetting any hawkish interpretation of inflation data. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3400 (critical barrier), 1.3450 Support: 1.3350, 1.3300 Market sentiment remains data driven, and the pair may continue to trade with elevated volatility through the week.
by Blueberry
GBP/USD Got the Breakout - Can Bulls Hold the Higher-Low? GBP/USD has broken out to a fresh three-year-high, finally pushing above the Fibonacci level of 1.3414. That pushed directly into a test above the 1.3500 handle, and prices have since pulled back. Given dynamics in the USD, that bullish trend in Cable remains of attraction if we do see USD-weakness continue. But, if strength remains in DXY and USD, there's greater pullback potential for GBP/USD, with supports at 1.3250 and 1.3000 of interest for longer-term strategies. And if looking for that USD-strength backdrop, EUR/USD can be a more attractive venue given the context of a lower-high there even as GBP/USD has ripped up to a three-year-high. For short-term pullback scenarios, traders would likely want to see support retained at prior Fibonacci resistance, around 1.3414. - js
by FOREXcom
Market Structure Shift Meaning and Use in ICT TradingMarket Structure Shift Meaning and Use in ICT Trading In ICT (Inner Circle Trader) trading, understanding Market Structure Shifts (MSS) is crucial for accurately interpreting market trends and making informed trading decisions. This article delves into the significance of MSS, its distinct indicators, and how it integrates with other trading elements like Breaks of Structure and Changes of Character. Understanding Breaks of Structure and Change of Character Comprehending the dynamics of Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) can be crucial for analysing market trends. A Break of Structure occurs when price levels move beyond established support or resistance areas, indicating a potential continuation or acceleration of the current trend. For example, in an uptrend, a BOS is identified when prices break above a previous resistance level, suggesting further upward movement. Conversely, a Change of Character signifies a possible shift in the market's direction. This occurs when the price action breaks against the prevailing trend, challenging the recent high or low points that served as market barriers. A CHoCH often raises a red flag about the sustainability of the current trend. For instance, in a sustained uptrend, a CHoCH would be marked by a significant downward breach that violates a previous low point, hinting at a weakening of bullish momentum. Both BOS and CHoCH are pivotal in the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology, where they are used to gauge market sentiment and potential shifts in trend dynamics. Traders monitor these patterns to adjust their strategies, whether to capitalise on the continuation signalled by a BOS or prepare for a trend reversal suggested by a CHoCH. What Is a Market Structure Shift? MSS, meaning a Market Structure Shift, is an indicator of a significant change in the prevailing trend, marked by a series of patterns that suggest a reversal is imminent. An ICT MSS is more than a simple Change of Character (CHoCH); it includes additional signals that strengthen the case for a directional change. The process begins with a shift in market structure that fails to sustain the ongoing trend. For example, during an uptrend, the market might fail to make a new higher high, instead forming a lower high. This initial deviation raises a caution flag about the trend’s strength. The confirmation of an MSS in trading occurs when there is a decisive break of a significant swing point, accompanied by a strong impulse move that deeply penetrates through this point, known as a displacement. This displacement is critical—it’s not merely a slight breach but a robust move that clearly indicates a shift. In essence, an MSS signals that the current market momentum has not only paused but is likely reversing. For traders, this is a pivotal moment: the lower highs in an uptrend or the higher lows in a downtrend prior to the break suggest that a new opposite trend is starting to take shape. How to Use a Market Structure Shift in Trading An MSS ultimately serves as a directional tool. It helps traders understand when a potential trend reversal is underway, enabling them to align their strategies with the new market direction. To effectively use an MSS in trading, traders often follow these steps: - Observing Current Market Structure: They start by analysing the existing trend direction and key price levels. Understand whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement by identifying patterns of higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. - Watching for a Break in Key Levels: The core of an MSS is the break of an important high or low, combined with a sharp price movement that breaches a significant swing point (displacement). - Confirming with News Releases: MSS often coincides with major economic announcements or news releases that can affect market sentiment significantly. For example, if there's a report indicating unexpectedly high US inflation rates, and this correlates with a sharp downward movement in EURUSD, it provides additional confirmation of the MSS. A stronger dollar against the euro, in this case, would signal a clear shift in market direction towards favouring the dollar. By recognising these elements, traders can more confidently anticipate and adapt to changes in market direction. A well-identified MSS not only indicates a pause in the current trend but also the establishment of a new trend. Using Market Structure Shifts With Other ICT Components Using Market Structure Shifts with other Inner Circle Trader methodology components like break of structure, order blocks, and fair value gaps may enhance a trader's ability to interpret and react to market dynamics. Integrating MSS with ICT Market Structure An MSS identifies a potential reversal in the market’s direction. When an MSS occurs, it often leads to the formation of a new high-low range in the direction of the new trend. For example, if a bearish MSS results in a new lower high and lower low, traders can watch for a BOS of this range. A retracement back inside of the new range can signal a decent area to search for an entry to ride the trend that’s just beginning. Utilising Order Blocks and Fair Value Gaps However, there are scenarios where the price doesn’t establish a new high-low range but instead returns to the area where the original displacement occurred. This displacement often leaves behind a fair value gap and an order block. - Fair Value Gap: This is a price range that the market skips over quickly during a displacement, leaving it untested by typical market trading. It often acts like a vacuum, drawing the price back to fill in the gap at a later stage. - Order Block: An order block is typically a consolidation area that precedes a strong price move and is considered a footprint left by institutional traders. It represents levels where significant buying or selling occurred, potentially acting as support or resistance in future price movements. If the price returns to fill a fair value gap and enters the order block, this scenario can provide a potent setup for a reversal. Traders might look for confirmatory signals at these levels to enter trades that anticipate the market returning to its previous course or extending the reversal initiated by the MSS. The Bottom Line The insights provided on MSS and its application within the ICT trading framework can be instrumental for any trader seeking to navigate the complexities of the market effectively. To put these strategies into practice and potentially improve your trading outcomes, practice a lot and learn more about ICT trading. FAQs What Is a Market Structure Shift? A Market Structure Shift (MSS) indicates a potential reversal in market trends, marked initially by a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend, followed by a displacement—a significant and rapid price movement that decisively breaks through a key market level. How to Identify Market Structure Shift? Identifying an MSS involves observing for early signs of trend weakening (lower highs or higher lows) and waiting for a subsequent displacement that confirms the shift. This displacement should significantly penetrate a key swing point, clearly indicating a new direction in market momentum. What Is the ICT Method of Trading? The ICT (Inner Circle Trader) method of trading is a comprehensive approach that utilises various trading concepts such as market structure, order blocks, and fair value gaps, focusing on how institutional traders influence the market. It emphasises understanding and leveraging these components to align trading strategies with probable market movements. What Is the Difference Between MSS and BOS in ICT? In ICT, a Market Structure Shift (MSS) refers to a potential trend reversal, confirmed by a lower high/higher low followed by a displacement. A Break of Structure (BOS), however, simply indicates the continuation or acceleration of the current trend without necessarily suggesting a reversal, marked by the breach of a key high or low point within the ongoing trend direction. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
GBPUSD I Weekly CLS I Model 2 Target opposing rangeHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. snapshot ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. snapshot 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. snapshot 📍Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. snapshot 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
 ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Short
by David_Perk
31
GU-Wed-28/05/25 TDA-Heavy pump and dump pre FOMC minutes!Analysis done directly on the chart Follow for more, possible live trades update! Multitasking is good once you have mastered each single task because you have practiced, trained your subconscious mind so much that your brain subconsciously automatically act accordingly. And this is where developing good pattern recognition on how price is moving will help you enhance your trading skills! It requires time, a lot but a lot of dedication, accepting the fact that your not good enough yet. Trick your mind by thinking you are always two steps behind. (even if you see good results!) And learn from your mistakes: Journaling! Do before, during, after trade analysis! Not financial advice, DYOR. Market Flow Strategy Mister Y
by Mister_Y
GBPUSD1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (as of recent data, driven by strong UK retail sales and elevated long-term yields). US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21, 2025, reflecting fiscal concerns and Fed rate cut expectations). 2. Interest Rate Differential (IRD) The yield spread between UK and US 10-year bonds is:4.77%(GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23% 4.77% (GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23% This modest differential favors the British pound, as UK bonds offer a slightly higher return than US Treasuries. 3. Carry Trade Advantage The +0.23% yield spread makes it marginally attractive for investors to borrow in USD (lower yield) and invest in GBP-denominated assets (higher yield). However, the narrow spread limits significant carry trade profits compared to higher-yielding currency pairs. GBP strength is further supported by strong UK economic data (e.g., April retail sales up 1.2% MoM) and easing UK-EU trade barriers. 4. Key Factors Influencing the Differential Bank of England Policy: The BoE cut rates to 4.25% in May 2025 but maintains a cautious stance. Further cuts could pressure gilt yields lower. Federal Reserve Outlook: Markets price in two Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which may reduce the US yield advantage. UK Fiscal Risks: High public debt levels (30-year gilt yields >5.5%) and potential fiscal pressures could weigh on GBP if investor confidence wanes. Summary Table Metric UK (GBP) US (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.54% Interest Rate Differential +0.23% (GBP over USD) — Carry Trade Appeal Modest, supported by GBP strength — Conclusion The 0.23% yield advantage for GBP provides limited carry trade incentives, but stronger UK economic data and technical bullishness in GBP/USD reinforce near-term GBP strength. UK fiscal sustainability: Elevated long-term yields pose risks to growth and currency stability. While the carry trade offers marginal gains, GBP’s upside is primarily driven by macroeconomic outperformance and reduced trade barriers with the EU. #GBPUSD
Short
by Shavyfxhub
1
GBPUSD – False Breakout Alert at Channel TopOn the D1 timeframe, GBPUSD continues to maintain a clear bullish structure within an ascending price channel, with steadily rising highs and lows. Currently, price is approaching the resistance zone near 1.35919 — which is the upper boundary of the channel and also a zone that previously saw strong reactions. As illustrated in the chart, a likely scenario is a false breakout above this zone, followed by a pullback towards the support area at 1.33270–1.32500 to retest the EMA34 region. If this support holds, price could bounce back in line with the upward channel structure, opening the door to the next target zone.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Bullish bounce?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.3395 1st Support: 1.3317 1st Resistance: 1.3583 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD at Major Resistance: Will it Drop To 1.33350?FX:GBPUSD is approaching a key resistance level that previously acted as a strong barrier, triggering some significant bearish momentum. This area could be a potential point of interest for those looking for short-selling opportunities. Given its historical importance, how price reacts here could set the tone for the next move. If bearish signals appear, such as rejection wicks, bearish candlestick patterns, or signs of weakening bullish pressure, I anticipate a move toward the 1.33350 level, which is a reasonable target in this setup. However, a clear breakout above this resistance could challenge the bearish outlook and suggest further upside. This is a key area where price action is likely to provide clearer clues about the next direction. Just my perspective on support and resistance zones, not financial advice. Always confirm your setup and trade with proper risk management.
Short
by LucasMgoldview
1
GBP-USD Massive Swing Breakout! Buy! Hello,Traders! GBP-USD is trading in a Strong uptrend and the Pair made a massive Bullish breakout of the Key horizontal level Of 1.3444 and went Further up which reinforces Our bullish bias and after A potential pullback we Will be expecting a Further bullish move up Next week Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE DataGBPUSD PLAN – MAY 27 | Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE Data GBPUSD is currently testing a critical resistance zone near 1.3570, forming a potential Double Top pattern. As markets await this week’s US Core PCE inflation release, the pair may be at risk of a short-term pullback. 🌍 MACRO FUNDAMENTALS USD Rebounds Slightly ahead of April’s PCE inflation report – a key Fed inflation gauge due this Friday. GBP Under Pressure as dovish tones from Bank of England (BoE) officials signal a potential pause in rate hikes. UK Political Uncertainty and sluggish EU-UK trade talks continue to dampen investor confidence in the pound. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Price Structure: GBPUSD surged from 1.3446 support but is now facing resistance near 1.3570, where a Double Top formation is emerging. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3570 – 1.3580 (previous high and psychological barrier) Support 1: 1.3496 (confluence of EMA89 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) Support 2: 1.3446 Indicators: EMA13, EMA34 show early signs of bearish crossover on the 30-minute chart. RSI approaches overbought territory, hinting at potential bearish divergence. 🎯 TRADE SETUP (IF PRICE REJECTS 1.3570) 🔻 SELL SETUP Entry: 1.3570 – 1.3550 Stop-Loss: 1.3595 Take-Profit Targets: TP1: 1.3496 TP2: 1.3446 📌 A bullish breakout only becomes valid if price closes strongly above 1.3590 on the H1 chart. 🧠 STRATEGIC NOTES Wait for a clear reaction or bearish confirmation near 1.3570 before entering trades. Avoid chasing trades mid-range; focus on clean breakouts or rejections. PCE data may trigger volatility — manage risk tightly and prepare for directional momentum. 👉 What do you think of this Double Top scenario? Will GBPUSD reject or break through resistance? Drop your analysis below and follow for daily structured plans!
Short
by MMFlowTrading