GBP Rebounds on Retail Sales – But USD Still in Control📌 GBP Bounces on Strong Retail Sales, But USD Strength Keeps Pressure On 💷📉
The British Pound (GBP) rebounded on Friday after UK Retail Sales data surprised to the upside. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales rose by 0.4% in March, beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. On a yearly basis, growth accelerated to 2.6%, outpacing the forecast of 1.8%.
However, despite the positive data, traders remain confident the Bank of England (BoE) may still cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25% in the May meeting, due to persistent global uncertainties and softer inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gained ground across the board as trade tensions between the US and China appeared to ease. Durable Goods Orders in the US jumped by 9.2% in March — a clear sign of business confidence and policy impact.
📊 Technical Outlook – GBP/USD
GBP/USD briefly recovered from an intraday low of 1.3280 but remains under pressure near key resistance.
On the upside, the psychological barrier at 1.3500 remains a major hurdle.
To the downside, the April 3rd high around 1.3200 now acts as strong support.
💼 Trading Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 1.32500
SL: 1.32000
TP: 1.33300
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.34180
SL: 1.34700
TP: 1.33500
📌 Stay alert ahead of key BoE guidance and further US-China headlines — volatility may increase as we head into May.
GBPUSD trade ideas
GBPUSD... 4H CHART PATTERNI am suggesting a **GBP/USD short (sell) position** from **1.3299**, targeting **1.3160**. Here's a quick breakdown of that idea from a technical and risk management perspective:
---
### 📊 **Trade Summary**
- **Pair**: GBP/USD
- **Position**: Sell
- **Entry**: 1.3299
- **Target**: 1.3160
- **Potential Profit**: 139 pips
---
### ⚠️ Key Considerations:
1. **Technical Analysis**:
- Are you basing this on a break of support, resistance rejection, or a larger trend (e.g., D1 or H4)?
- Any key indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages) giving confirmation?
2. **Fundamentals**:
- Any upcoming UK or US economic data? (GDP, interest rate announcements, Fed or BoE speeches?)
- Market sentiment toward USD (safe haven) or GBP (risk currency)?
3. **Stop Loss**:
- Are you using one? Placing it above recent highs could protect you—e.g., SL at 1.3350 (risk of ~50 pips).
- Risk-to-reward ratio: approx. 1:2.8 (Good).
---
### 🛠 Example Trade Setup (MetaTrader Style)
| Type | Sell (Short) |
|------------|-------------------|
| Entry | 1.3299 |
| TP (Target)| 1.3160 |
| SL (Stop) | 1.3350 (example) |
| R:R | ~1:2.8 |
---
If you’re live trading this, be cautious of:
- **Volatility spikes** from news.
- **Support levels** near 1.3200 that could slow down the move.
- **Dollar strength/weakness** (watch the DXY).
GBPUSD Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.330.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.319 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W17 D25 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W17 D25 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Sterling Keeps Flat Amid Trade WatchThe British pound held steady near 1.3290 on Friday morning, maintaining levels seen in the previous session. The currency remained flat in recent days, supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump and largely neutral PMI data. Upcoming economic releases and developments in the US-China trade dispute are expected to play a key role in shaping the pair’s direction next week.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
GU-Fri-25/04/25 TDA-More consolidation incoming!Analysis done directly on the chart
Nothing is easy, people make it look simple
but you don't see when they struggled.
Be consistent in whatever you want to do,
Journal your progress so you can look back
and see how far you've come. A lot of times
we diminish our progress without fully realizing
how much we have improved. Everyone's journey
is different, try not to compare to others in a toxic
way. Peace.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 25, 2025 GBPUSDAn event to watch out for today:
11:00 EET. CHF - The head of the SNB Martin Schlegel will deliver a speech
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is pulling back from its recent gains, hovering around 1.3290 during the Asian session on Friday. The pullback comes amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD), helped by a Bloomberg report that China may suspend a 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment, ethane and aircraft leasing.
Sources familiar with the matter said officials are particularly scrutinising the possibility of removing tariffs on aircraft leasing. China's Ministry of Finance and General Administration of Customs have not yet commented. Further support for the dollar comes from optimism around trade talks with the US. Reuters reports progress in preliminary talks with key Asian allies, including South Korea and Japan.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is recovering previous losses and is trading near 99.80. However, the dollar faced headwinds after mixed labour market data. The US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims rose to 222,000 for the week ended April 19, slightly above expectations, while jobless claims fell 37,000 to 1.841 million for the week ended April 12.
In the United Kingdom (UK), the GfK consumer confidence index fell to -23 in April - its lowest level since November 2023 - amid rising living costs and growing concerns about global trade, missing forecasts of -22. Traders now await UK retail sales data and a final reading of the US consumer sentiment index from Michigan later in the North American session.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3270, SL 1.3300, TP 1.3170
GBPUSD | Short-Term Resistance Forming – Stay Sharp for ReactionGBPUSD has been showing strength lately due to the UK’s early acknowledgment of recession risks and a more transparent economic approach. However, in the short term, we are now approaching a resistance zone that traders should pay close attention to.
🟥 Resistance Zone (Short-Term)
The current red zone overhead has historically acted as a supply area — we’ve seen hesitation and sell pressure emerge here before. If price approaches this area again, it’s important not to chase longs blindly. This level could lead to profit-taking or even a temporary reversal.
📌 What You Can Do:
If you're short-biased, look for lower timeframe weakness in this zone (e.g., rejection candles, market structure shifts) before jumping in.
If you're long-biased, wait to see if this resistance gets reclaimed with strength. Only then consider it a continuation signal — otherwise, it’s best to stay patient.
Always pair your setups with proper confirmation. You already know I never insist on an idea when price action tells another story. Confirmation is key.
Adaptability is your edge. Don’t fight the market — flow with it, and let the chart reveal your edge.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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GBPUSD MUST BUY !You clearly see 8H ( STRONG CANDLE) with so much strenght , i think here we can get easy 100 pip move, ill take this trade and play some video games while it takes my tp :) Stay safe guys and trade what you think is right ! We have chance to take TP in 3 8H candles
4 RRR
GL TRADERS
THIS IS NOT ADVICE !
GBPUSD Trade SetupA buy position has been placed on the GBP/USD pair at 1.30369, targeting an ambitious level of 1.39096.
This setup reflects a bullish sentiment, anticipating a strong recovery in the British Pound against the US Dollar.
Recent macroeconomic indicators suggest improving conditions in the UK economy, which could support further upward movement.
Technical analysis shows that the pair is holding above key support levels, indicating sustained buying interest.
If momentum continues, the price may gradually ascend toward the 1.39096 target in the coming weeks.
A potential breakout above intermediate resistance zones could further confirm the bullish trend.
Market sentiment also favors the Pound, especially amid speculation about a more cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.
Volatility remains a factor, so proper risk management and stop-loss placement are essential.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming data releases, such as GDP figures and central bank announcements.
Overall, this trade setup offers a promising risk-to-reward ratio, backed by both technical strength and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- President Trump continues to state that negotiations with China are going well, but the Chinese side has expressed that “the U.S. and China have neither consulted nor negotiated on tariff issues, let alone reached any agreement.”
- Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are facing difficulties, and President Trump told reporters that he is strongly pressuring Russia to enter into peace negotiations with Ukraine.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, “If the labor market begins to deteriorate significantly, we expect more rate cuts to occur sooner.”
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 25: Australian stock market closed
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
The pair had been in an uptrend and recently reached resistance at the previous high of 1.34000 but failed to break through and is now declining. This downtrend is expected to continue in the short term toward the 1.31500 level, where a new directional move is likely to be determined.
GBP/USD Hourly Analysis & Scalping Perspective 4/24 10:37pmI’m looking at GBP/USD on the hourly timeframe, where price is currently hovering around 1.33074, showing mild volatility but respecting key levels. Here’s what I see:
Market Structure & Key Zones:
Resistance at 1.33350-1.33490 has been holding firm, with multiple failed breakout attempts. If buyers can finally push through, we might see momentum extend toward 1.33700.
Support at 1.32850-1.32900 has been a demand zone, where price has reacted in the past—this could be an area of institutional absorption before a reversal.
Price is consolidating between 1.33050-1.33350, suggesting indecision and potential liquidity traps.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (1-hour): 21.69 → Deep in oversold territory, which suggests price could be setting up for a reversal.
CCI (1-hour): -184.71 → Extreme bearish pressure—sellers are in control, but exhaustion may come soon.
Stochastic RSI (1-hour): 0.0 → Completely oversold, signaling a possible bottom formation.
Directional Strength:
ADX (1-hour): 26.10 → Moderate trend strength, meaning price isn’t ranging but also isn’t aggressively trending.
DX (1-hour): 69.10 → Strong directional push, supporting the current bearish move.
Scalping Plan:
Bullish Breakout: If price successfully breaks 1.33490, the next upside target is 1.33700, potentially 1.34000 if buyers hold control.
Bearish Play: If price fails 1.33050, sellers could take control and push it toward 1.32850-1.32900.
Liquidity Trap Setup: A sweep below 1.32850, followed by a sharp reclaim, could signal a fakeout before a reversal.
Right now, I’m closely watching how price reacts around 1.33050—if buyers step in aggressively, a scalp toward 1.33350 could be viable. However, if momentum stays weak and price fails to hold above 1.33050, it’s likely we’re heading into deeper support zones near 1.32850 before institutions re-enter the market.
I’d like to check order flow and volume profile next to see if liquidity is building up at these key zones. That would help confirm whether buyers are genuinely absorbing sell pressure or if we’re in for another wave down before a reversal.
GBP/USD: The Pound Rebounds Back Above 1.33000During the last trading session, the GBP/USD pair posted a gain of more than 0.5% in favor of the pound, as U.S. dollar weakness continues, even after some positive remarks regarding the U.S.–China trade war. For now, it seems that investors are viewing European currencies as a potential safe haven amid the current wave of economic uncertainty across markets. This shift in sentiment has helped to sustain consistent bullish pressure on the pound in the short term.
Broad Ascending Channel
Since mid-January, the pair has been forming a strong ascending channel, with price now trading above the 200-period simple moving average, reinforcing long-term bullish momentum. So far, no bearish correction has been strong enough to break the channel, which remains the most relevant technical formation to monitor for upcoming GBP/USD moves.
RSI
Despite strong bullish momentum, a notable divergence has begun to form on the RSI, as the pair continues to post higher highs in price, while the RSI shows flat peaks in the short term. In addition, the RSI line is hovering near the 70 level, which marks the overbought zone. Both signals suggest a potential imbalance in market forces, possibly opening the door to short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
1.33763 – Key Resistance: This level represents the most recent highs reached by GBP/USD. A sustained move above this area could confirm strong bullish momentum and lead to an acceleration within the current channel.
1.30448 – Near Support: This area corresponds to a consolidation zone seen over the past few months. It may serve as a tentative barrier where short-term pullbacks could occur.
1.28248 – Major Support: This is a critical level, aligned with the 200-period simple moving average. A decisive move below this support could invalidate the current bullish formation and potentially trigger a long-term bearish shift.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst