GU-Tue-1/04/25 Top down analysis-Investors in risk off modeAnalysis done directly on the chart
Risk On:
When the market is in a "risk on" mode, investors feel confident and optimistic about the economy or financial markets. They are more willing to take on higher-risk investments, such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or emerging market assets, in pursuit of greater returns. This typically happens during periods of economic growth, positive news, or stability. Prices of riskier assets tend to rise, while safe-haven assets like bonds, gold, or the US dollar might see less demand.
Risk Off:
In a "risk off" environment, investors become cautious or fearful due to uncertainty, economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, or negative news. They shift their money into safer, lower-risk investments like government bonds, gold, or stable currencies (e.g., USD, JPY, CHF). Riskier assets like stocks or commodities often decline in value as investors "de-risk" their portfolios.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GBPUSD trade ideas
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 1, 2025 GBPUSDOn Monday, the GBP/USD pair was traversing the charts in familiar territory, passing a familiar accumulation zone as investors awaited the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats. The Trump administration intends to enact a broad catalog of tariffs against virtually all US trading partners starting April 2.
Specific details of the Trump administration's tariff plans this week remain vague and elusive, but the main tariff threats remain “retaliatory” tariffs on all countries that have their own tariffs on imports of U.S. goods, regardless of the economic context. Retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the European Union are also expected, as well as additional flat tariffs on copper and automobiles.
The UK economic data release schedule remains loose this week, however, fresh US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment data is due out later this week. The release of NFP could be an important factor for the markets as the US economy transitions into a post-tariff economic environment, and the March labor data will serve as an “indicator” of the impact of the Trump team's tariff plans.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29250, SL 1.30000, TP 1.28650
GBP/USD Technical & Fundamental AnalysisThis chart presents a long (buy) trade setup on GBP/USD (British Pound to US Dollar) 30-minute timeframe.
Technical Analysis
1. Entry & Stop Loss (SL) 🛑
Entry Zone: 1.29050 - 1.29100 (Purple Support Area)
Stop Loss: Below 1.28850 (Red Box)
2. Target Zones 🎯
Target 1: 1.29300 – Minor resistance, suitable for first take-profit (TP1).
Target 2: 1.29500 – Stronger resistance level.
Target 3: 1.29700 – Major resistance area, final take-profit (TP3).
3. Market Structure & Price Action 📈
The price reacted to the entry zone, a support level.
A retest of previous demand zones before potential bullish continuation.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Favorable, as upside potential is greater than downside risk.
Bullish Confirmation: If price holds above the 1.29050 zone, an upward move is likely.
Recent Fundamental Factors Affecting GBP/USD
1. UK Economic Data 🇬🇧
UK GDP Growth: Slower growth than expected, but still in positive territory.
Bank of England (BoE) Policy: No immediate rate cuts, keeping GBP stable.
UK Inflation: Still above target, supporting a stronger GBP.
2. US Economic Data 🇺🇸
Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy:
Mixed signals from the Fed—some officials hint at rate cuts later this year.
If the Fed pauses or cuts rates, GBP/USD could rise.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data:
Expected to show job market resilience. A strong NFP could push USD higher, pressuring GBP/USD.
US GDP Data:
Slower-than-expected growth could weaken USD, helping GBP.
3. Market Sentiment 🌍
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off:
If investors shift to risk-on sentiment (buying stocks, GBP), GBP/USD could move higher.
If risk-off sentiment dominates (buying USD as a safe haven), GBP/USD may struggle.
Conclusion & Trading Plan
✅ Buy near 1.29050 - 1.29100 with SL below 1.28850.
✅ Take Profits: TP1 (1.29300), TP2 (1.29500), TP3 (1.29700).
✅ Monitor: US economic data, Fed rate expectations, and risk sentiment.
New Update Of GBPUSD 1 H Time frameHere’s an advanced technical insight:
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1. Structure Analysis
The chart demonstrates a bullish structure in the GBP/USD 1-hour timeframe, characterized by:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price is respecting an ascending channel, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
The Support 1 level (~1.2600) has transitioned from resistance to support, confirming a breakout and potential continuation of the uptrend.
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2. Supertrend Confirmation (10, 3)
The Supertrend indicator aligns with the bullish bias as the price is above the green Supertrend line.
Supertrend crossover (red to green) indicates a potential reversal in momentum, which occurred earlier in the demand zone.
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3. Demand and Support Levels
Support 1 (~1.2600): A critical intraday level, likely to act as a short-term pivot point for bulls. If retested, it could provide an opportunity for re-entry.
Demand Zone (1.2400–1.2500): A broader accumulation zone based on historical price reactions and the swing low, providing stronger support in case of a deeper correction.
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4. Price Action within the Ascending Channel
The pair is trading in a tight ascending channel, with clear upper and lower boundaries.
The midline of the channel can act as dynamic support/resistance.
The dashed arrow projection suggests that bulls may target the channel’s upper resistance (~1.2700).
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5. Probable Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
If the price sustains above Support 1 and remains inside the ascending channel, expect continuation toward:
Short-Term Target: 1.2650 (minor resistance).
Mid-Term Target: 1.2700 (channel resistance).
Bearish Scenario:
A break below the ascending channel’s lower boundary (~1.2600) could invalidate the bullish bias.
Potential downside levels:
1.2550 (local horizontal support).
1.2500–1.2400 (Demand Zone).
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6. Trade Ideas
Long Setup
Entry: Wait for a pullback to Support 1 (~1.2600) or channel lower boundary.
Target: 1.2650, 1.2700.
Stop Loss: Below 1.2580 (to avoid being caught in a false breakout).
Short Setup (Countertrend):
Entry: If price breaks below the channel (~1.2600).
Target: 1.2550, then 1.2500.
Stop Loss: Above 1.2635 (to account for a false breakout).
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7. Risk Management
Use proper risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:2).
Position sizing is critical; align trades with your account's risk tolerance.
Long trade
Day Tf overview
Pair GBPUSD
Buyside trade
Mon 31st March 25
9.00 am (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 1.29046
Profit level 1.29691 (0.50%)
Stop level 1.28968 (0.06%)
RR 8.27
Reason:
The buyside trade idea is
based on the supply and
demand narrative...
Observed Sun 29th March 25.
Entry reached Mon 31st 9.00 am (NY time)
4Hr TF overview
GBPUSD 4H SHORT [UPdate]In line with expectations of a decline in GBPUSD, the price interacted with the primary order block. To feel safe in this position, I move the stop order to $1.29620
I expect the downward trend I mentioned in the main review to continue to my targets:
$1.28609
$1.28030
$1.27534
$1.26722
GBPUSD:This is a bullish situationThe GBP/USD is still fluctuating repeatedly at present. Taking various factors into account, there is a great deal of market noise in the current currency market, and many currency pairs are in a sideways trend.
The British pound has been fluctuating sideways for several weeks, and the market is digesting the previous significant upward rally. The 1.30 level on the upside serves as a resistance level, while the 1.29 level on the downside acts as a support level. The so-called "golden cross" has recently occurred, so this is a bullish market.
Trading strategy:
buy@1.2910
TP:1.2970-1.2990
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LEAP: GBPUSD Week 14 Swing Zone/LevelsWe'll stick with the same calculations as last week and before.
Price should follow the same logic as any mathematical principle—calculable, predictable, and consistent. The key variables are the broader market factors and the strength of the trend.
With that in mind, swing zones and levels are marked on the chart, and price will ultimately decide between option A or B.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 AprilMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, US and Canada’s Employment Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.294.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.305.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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