GBPUSD trade ideas
British PMIs fall, Trump says won't fire PowellThe British pound dropped as much as 0.7% earlier today and is under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3265, down 0.45% on the day.
The pound has taken advantage of broad US dollar weakness recently, rising 3% in the month of April. On Tuesday, the pound climbed as high as 1.3423, its highest level since September 2024.
UK PMIs reports softened in April, another reminder that that the UK economy is struggling. The Services PMI fell to 48.9 from 52.5 in March, below the market estimate of 51.3. There are growing fears that the UK will fall into recession and global economic uncertainty has led to decreased business activity.
The Manufacturing PMI eased to 44.0, matching the market estimate but lower than the March reading of 44.9. This was the lowest reading since August 2023 as the deteriorating global market outook has reduced demand for UK exports. The increase in employer tax contributions has hurt employment and lowered confidence.
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8, down from 3.3% in January. The downgrade was in response to US tariffs and the IMF warned that an escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries would create further market volatility and lead to even lower growth.
US stock markets are sharply higher on Wednesday after President Trump said that he had no intention to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump had intensified his attacks on Powell in recent days, resulting in sharp slides in US equity markets and the US dollar.
Trump also said that China tariffs would drop "substantially" and investors hope this signals a de-escalation in the nasty trade war between the US and China.
Falling towards overlap support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3203
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.3056
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3412
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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As the dollar's weak trend signals an endTrump's remarks and attitudes in trade negotiations have had a significant impact on the market 📈💥
His change in attitude towards the Federal Reserve Chairman first triggered investors' concerns about the Fed's policy, leading them to seek refuge in gold and causing the price of gold to rise 🏆🚀. Later, his remarks alleviated those concerns, prompting funds to flow back into dollar-denominated assets and causing the price of gold to decline from its peak levels 📉💔
In terms of trade negotiations, potential easing measures may reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset ⏳
Taken together, these factors may imply that market confidence in the dollar has been somewhat restored 🌟. When signs of the end of the dollar's weak trend emerge 📊, more funds flow into dollar assets 💸. Against the backdrop of this change in the direction of capital flows, the GBPUSD has declined 😔
⚡⚡⚡ GBPUSD ⚡⚡⚡
🚀 Sell@1.32800 - 1.32600
🚀 TP 1.32200 - 1.32000
The market has been extremely volatile lately 📈📉 If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others 💰
GBPUSD – Rejected at Multi-Month Resistance Amid Weak UK DataGBPUSD has clearly rejected the 1.3413–1.3443 resistance zone—a key area that previously acted as strong supply in September 2024. The pair has formed a bearish rejection candle and is now showing signs of downward momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.3413 – 1.3443 (major rejection zone)
TP1: 1.3176 (minor structure)
TP2: 1.3014 (key demand zone)
TP3: 1.2890 (deeper support target)
Bearish Confluences:
Price rejected from major resistance
Bearish candle formation
Previous similar reaction from the same level
Momentum indicators favor downside
📰 Fundamental Analysis:
🔻 UK Data Weakens Further:
According to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI (Apr 23):
Composite Output Index: 48.2 (vs 51.5 in March) – 29-month low
Services PMI: 48.9 – 27-month low
Manufacturing PMI: 44.0 – 20-month low
This shows UK private sector activity contracting, led by a steep fall in new export orders, the worst since May 2020.
🔺 Inflation Still High:
Despite falling activity, input and output prices surged, driven by National Insurance hikes and wage growth. This makes it harder for the BoE to justify a cut, despite recession signs.
📌 Conclusion:
The bearish rejection at 1.3413 resistance, combined with deteriorating UK fundamentals, suggests a strong downside setup for GBPUSD. A break below 1.3176 would confirm the bearish move, targeting 1.3014 and potentially 1.2890.
GBPUSD → A false breakout can trigger a correction FX:GBPUSD is strengthening as part of the rally associated with the fall in the dollar index, but there is a technically strong resistance zone ahead that could trigger a correction...
The dollar index, due to US politics, desire for lower interest rates, tariff war, continues its decline, giving an advantage to the currency pairs of the main basket.
Against this background, the pound sterling is strengthening and is ready to test the key resistance at the moment: 1.343. The huge pool of liquidity, accumulated behind this area may not let the price up at the first time. The last test and confirmation of this level was half a year ago.
Resistance levels: 1.343
Support levels: 1.3292, 1.3207
A sharp approach to resistance, a false breakout without the possibility of growth continuation and consolidation below the resistance 1.3430 may provoke a correction in the imbalance zone or liquidity 1.3292.
Regards R. Linda!
Long trade
15min TF Overview
📈 Buyside Trade – GBPUSD
Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025
🕘 Time: 8:55 AM (New York Time)
📊 Session: London Session AM
⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5 Minutes
🔹 Entry Price: 1.33029
🔹 Take Profit: 1.33829 (0.60%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.32958 (0.05%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 11.27
🧠 Trade Rationale & Execution Notes: (Market Context)
Identified a strong bullish structure in the LND session with price respecting prior demand zones.
📉 Volume & Price Spread Insight: Medium to higher volume consistency shows on the Volume spread analysis indicator, providing additional validation of buying interest to add confluence to the directional bias.
5min TF
GBPUSD Analysis 10:06AM. Are the Bear's stepping in? I’ve been watching GBP/USD closely as price continues to slide, now reaching 1.32848. The initial rejection near 1.33250 confirmed institutional sell pressure, and the breakdown below 1.32950 suggests further downside movement.
At this stage, price is sitting just above the 1.32750–1.32800 support zone, which could act as a temporary demand level. If buyers step in here, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.33050–1.33250, but only with solid confirmation. However, fundamentals remain bearish—UK Services PMI dropped to 48.9, signaling economic contraction, adding further weight to GBP downside.
Technical indicators reinforce the sell-side momentum. MACD remains weak, indicating sellers still control the market. RSI near 41.70 suggests there’s room for further declines but signals that price is approaching oversold territory. The ADX at 29.52 confirms a developing trend, though not yet fully directional.
Given these conditions, my plan remains focused on a sell setup near 1.32950, using it as a retest level. If price rejects this zone, it strengthens the short bias toward 1.32700, a key liquidity target. On the other hand, if price stabilizes at 1.32750–1.32800, I'll reassess whether institutional players are absorbing sell orders for a potential reversal.
Right now, my focus is on price reaction near support. If sellers keep control, this drop could extend further, but if signs of buy-side defense appear, a temporary bounce may develop. I'll wait for clear confirmation before executing my next position.
GBP/USD Faces Strong Resistance and Bearish PressureGBP/USD Faces Strong Resistance and Bearish Pressure
GBP/USD tested a key daily zone from September 2024 but faced strong selling pressure, dropping nearly 190 pips.
One reason for this bearish move is President Trump stepping back from his threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which had briefly unsettled investor confidence in U.S. assets. However, as European trading began, most of those earlier gains faded.
This setup remains risky because GBP/USD often doesn’t respond well to sell signals. However, if Trump reaches a deal with China, we could see a more decisive bearish move, as indicated on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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