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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - Preliminary German CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and the previous month's figure. - U.S. Q3 GDP grew by an annualized 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of market expectations. - U.S. ADP private employment increased by 233,000, surpassing both market expectations and the previous month's revised figure, raising anticipation for this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate data. - ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated that the fight against inflation continues, and a gradual approach remains appropriate to remove policy constraints. - The Fed has entered its blackout period, and the CME FedWatch tool reflects a 96.1% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the November meeting. Economic Indicators -October 31: Bank of Japan rate decision, Eurozone October Consumer Price Index, U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. - November 1: U.S. October Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate. Chart Analysis GBP/USD appears to be rising, supported by the trendline, suggesting potential growth up to the 1.34000 level. However, if Trump wins the election, there may be an adjustment to the Fed’s rate cut pace, which could impact market direction. If the lower trend support breaks, GBP/USD is likely to retreat toward the 1.26000 line. If market direction shifts downward due to various factors, we will promptly adjust our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
GBPUSD_102 2024.11.05 14:34:05 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for GBPUSD_102 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.2937 SL: 1.30274 Entry Price: 1.30161 Analysis for GBPUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Up LT= Strong Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Down ST=Up LT=Down ST=Up LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate short-term and long-term forecasts for the GBP/USD currency pair. **Short-term forecast (next 24-48 hours)** Given the upcoming US presidential election results and monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on November 7, market volatility is expected to increase. The current trading range between 1.2900 and 1.3050 may break out in either direction. * If the US presidential election results favor Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the US Dollar may weaken, and the GBP/USD pair may break above 1.3050, targeting 1.3100 and 1.3175. * If the election results are unfavorable for Harris, the US Dollar may strengthen, and the GBP/USD pair may break below 1.2850, targeting 1.2700. **Probability of short-term price movement:** * Up: 40% * Down: 30% * Sideways: 30% **Long-term forecast (next week and beyond)** The general trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is still bearish, according to daily chart performance. The expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve may influence market sentiment and lead to a downward movement in the pair. * If the BoE cuts interest rates by 0.25% or more, the pound's value may decline, and the GBP/USD pair may continue its bearish trend, targeting 1.2600 and 1.2400. * If the Fed cuts rates by a standard 25 basis points, the US Dollar may weaken, and the GBP/USD pair may experience a temporary upward movement, but the overall bearish trend may still prevail. **Probability of long-term price movement:** * Down: 55% * Up: 25% * Sideways: 20% Please note that these forecasts are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Up LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the GBP/USD pair's price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days/week):** * The pair is expected to continue its upward momentum, with a potential correction towards 1.3060 and a possible reach of 1.3128. * The ascending channel and sustained uptrend suggest a bullish bias in the short term. * However, the overbought condition indicated by the RSI (70) suggests a potential price consolidation or correction. **Expected price movement:** Up (but with potential consolidation or correction) **Long-term (end of 2024 and beyond):** * Forecasts are mixed, with LongForecast suggesting a potential strengthening of the pound sterling by the end of the year, while WalletInvestor projects a bearish trend. * The expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) may put downward pressure on the pound sterling, potentially leading to a decline in the GBP/USD pair. * However, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election outcome and its impact on the US Dollar may continue to support the GBP/USD pair. **Expected price movement:** Uncertain (both up and down scenarios possible) In summary, while the short-term outlook appears bullish, the long-term forecast is uncertain due to mixed analyst predictions and the impact of upcoming economic events. Result: ST=Up LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the GBPUSD pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term. **Short-term Analysis (Next few days to end of 2024)** * The pair is currently struggling to break above the 1.3000 level, which is capped by the 100-day SMA. * Technical indicators suggest support at around 1.2914 and a potential corrective wave towards 1.3060. * The upcoming US presidential election and the Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday are key factors that could influence the pair's movement. * Given the uncertainty surrounding these events, the pair is expected to trade within a range. However, the bullish gap at the start of the week and the potential for further growth aiming for 1.3128 suggest a slightly bullish bias. * Therefore, in the short-term, the price is expected to **go up** slightly, potentially reaching the 1.3060-1.3128 range. **Long-term Analysis (End of 2024 and beyond)** * Forecasts suggest the GBPUSD rate could range between 1.288 and 1.321 for November 2024, with an average for the month at around 1.273. * The pair is expected to end the month at 1.269, representing a -1.1% change. * The Bank of England's planned interest rate cuts by nearly 100 basis points by the end of 2025 are being factored into market prices, which could put downward pressure on the GBP. * Considering the forecasted range and the expected interest rate cuts, the long-term outlook for the GBPUSD pair appears **bearish**, with a potential decline towards the 1.269-1.273 range. In summary, the GBPUSD pair is expected to **go up** slightly in the short-term, potentially reaching the 1.3060-1.3128 range, but **go down** in the long-term, potentially declining towards the 1.269-1.273 range. Result: ST=Up LT=Down
Short
by frankiepro
The UK's £40 Billion Budget: What Does it Mean For GBP Traders?For traders following GBP/USD and GBP/EUR, today’s UK budget rollout might be impactful. The Labour government’s plan introduces a £40 billion tax increase and invests in infrastructure—moves that could shape the pound’s trajectory. While the fiscal measures aim to strengthen public finances, they may exert near-term pressure on GBP, potentially affecting growth rates. Watching these shifts will be key for traders. GBP/USD Potential Historically, GBP/USD has been sensitive to fiscal news, and today’s budget may stir some extra volatility. Currently, GBP/USD sits around key support at 1.30—a level it’s held onto in recent dips. Should today’s announcements apply downside pressure, GBP/USD could test support around 1.28, with 1.25 being the next significant marker. On the upside, if the market views these tax increases as beneficial for stability, the pair might target 1.3150 resistance. Strong consumer or growth data could provide further support toward this level, but breaking above it may require more robust economic updates. GBP/EUR Potential With GBP/EUR, there’s a bit of a balancing act at play. While tax hikes could weigh on GBP, ongoing eurozone challenges might stabilise the pair. GBP/EUR remains in a defined range, with support around 1.14 and resistance at 1.16. Any shifts in ECB policy—especially if hawkish—could nudge the euro higher, influencing the pair’s movement. Macro & Technical Balancing Act On a broader scale, the Bank of England’s rate path will be essential here. If rates rise to keep inflation in check, this could add support for GBP. However, tax hikes could dampen consumer demand, potentially easing pressure on the BoE for further rate hikes in the short term. In summary, today’s budget introduces potential volatility for GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Watching 1.28 or 1.3150 on GBP/USD, and the range in GBP/EUR, will provide useful signals. With both the BoE and ECB in play, staying tuned to macro updates and watching price action around key levels could help traders stay ahead. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days. The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance. The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern. As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone. All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
RBA Holds, BoE Expected to Cut in Volatile Week Two major central bank decisions this week join the U.S. election as key events for markets, with interest rate reductions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England being considered. The RBA will announce its decision Tuesday (local time), with economists polled by Reuters forecasting no change to the current 4.35% cash rate. Persistently robust economic activity and sticky core inflation are thought to be keeping the central bank cautious. All major Australian banks—ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac—expect the RBA to hold steady through year-end, projecting the first rate cut to come in February 2025. Meanwhile, the BoE is anticipated to lower its Bank Rate by 25-basis points on Thursday (local time), bringing it to 4.75%, according to a Reuters poll. Last week Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves unveiled an unexpectedly large increase in borrowing and public spending, which prompted the Office for Budget Responsibility to raise inflation forecasts. However, analysts suggest that these fiscal moves won’t likely disrupt the BoE’s path toward a rate cut this week.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPUSD - UK is on the verge of an important economic decisioThe GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within zone with appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones The UK budget is set to be announced today, Wednesday, October 30, 2024. Analysts at Commerzbank predict that if the budget combines austerity measures with long-term investment optimism, it could positively impact the pound and bolster the UK’s long-term growth potential. The government faces the challenge of stimulating investment to address years of underfunding in the public sector. The difficulty lies in the fact that the UK has been spending beyond its income in recent years, which has complicated its financial situation. Meanwhile, prices in UK stores have fallen at their fastest rate in over three years. However, the budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could help inflation rebound. The annual store price index has decreased to 0.8%, marking the weakest level since August 2021. Food prices have risen by 1.9%, and clothing prices have also increased for the first time since January. Data shows that consumer inflation fell to 1.9% in September. On the other hand, in the U.S., Professor Jeremy Siegel from the Wharton School believes the Federal Reserve may choose to hold rates steady next week if the October non-farm payroll (NFP) report proves very strong. Siegel notes that if the labor market report is robust, many FOMC members may conclude that it’s time to pause. He also predicts that the rate-cutting cycle will include three to four rate reductions, but long-term rates are likely to remain high. In August, Siegel advocated for an emergency 75 basis-point rate cut by the Fed.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD_116 2024.11.01 03:14:05 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for GBPUSD_116 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.28125 SL: 1.29029 Entry Price: 1.28916 Analysis for GBPUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the GBP/USD pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The price is expected to go down. The bearish setup targets the level of 1.2900, and the failure to sustain above 1.3000 has led to a rebound downwards, indicating ongoing downward pressure. * The immediate outlook is cautious due to the ongoing bearish correction, and the pair may attempt to test the support area near 1.2975 before potentially continuing its decline. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The overall trend is bearish, and the pair is expected to maintain its downtrend. The technical analysis highlights the importance of watching key levels, and any significant movements will be influenced by upcoming economic data releases. * However, if the pair can break out above 1.2990, it could potentially lead to a bullish reversal. Nevertheless, this is not the primary expectation based on the current analysis. In summary, the GBP/USD pair is expected to decline in the short-term, with a potential target of 1.2900. In the long-term, the pair is expected to maintain its downtrend, but a bullish breakout above 1.2990 could potentially lead to a reversal. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the GBP/USD exchange rate: **Short-term (next few days):** The price is expected to go down. The current bearish setup targets 1.2900, and the recent decline in the pound due to the UK's new budget announcement supports this expectation. Additionally, the technical analysis suggests that the GBP/USD will test the support area near 1.2975, which could lead to further downward movement. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** The price is expected to stay the same or potentially go up. Although the current trend is bearish in the short term, the technical analysis mentions a possibility of continued growth after the support test at 1.2975. Furthermore, the GBP/USD rate had previously re-tested the 1.30 level, indicating that there is still some upward momentum in the market. However, this expectation is less clear-cut than the short-term expectation, and the price movement will likely depend on future market data releases, such as the PCE index. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the GBP/USD pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The price is currently attempting to break through the lower boundary of an ascending price channel, which suggests a potential short-term downtrend. * The bearish setup targeting 1.2900 and the expected trading range of 1.2914-1.3050 also indicate a possible short-term decline. * However, the higher linear regression channel indicating an upward tilt suggests that the downtrend might be limited. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down (targeting 1.2900) **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The ascending price channel and the higher linear regression channel indicating an upward tilt suggest a potential long-term uptrend. * The bullish breakout anticipated at 1.2990 also supports a long-term bullish outlook. * However, the UK budget and tax hike announcement may continue to influence the pair's direction, potentially leading to further volatility. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up (with potential for further volatility) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new market data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could srop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.2989 1st Support: 1.2915 1st Resistance: 1.3033 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
GBP/USD: PAT + VPA 11/02/2024Good morning, The GBP/USD currency pair continues to exhibit characteristics indicative of a sustained bearish trend, currently favoring the U.S. Dollar. Several analytical indicators support this assessment: 1. The weekly chart for GBP/USD has been in a downward trajectory since September 30, 2024. Candlestick patterns suggest that "Market Makers" are gradually entering the market, purchasing at lower price levels. The weekly low is established at 1.26650, with a demand zone identified between 1.26650 and 1.2815. 2. On the daily chart, GBP/USD appears to be approaching a support level at 1.28168, coinciding with an untapped supply zone in that vicinity. 3. Since September 30, 2024, the market has experienced a decline of approximately 600 points, characterized by minimal daily pullbacks. This downward movement occurred following the formation of a new weekly high. I project that prices will descend to the 1.28168 level, where support may be found on the daily chart. This area could serve as a critical juncture for a potential pullback. Should the 1.28168 level hold, targets may extend to 1.132, representing the last significant low breached prior to the bearish trend that commenced on September 30, 2024, and continues to the present date of November 2, 2024. Volume analysis indicates that market makers are incrementally entering long positions, although they are not yet prepared to fully influence the market direction. The overarching weekly outlook remains bearish, yet a corrective pullback appears necessary. OANDA:GBPUSD TVC:DXY ThePipAssassin
by ThePipAssassin