GBPUSD trade ideas
GBPUSD's Potential Trend ChangeHi there,
GBPUSD currently shows bullish potential up to 1.34000, with 1.35113 open as a target, meaning the price could reach that level if the support area holds.
Potential bearish interest lies in a break below 1.32549, targeting the area around 1.29875. However, the price may drop further to 1.2800, with a bias toward 1.26000.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not a trading advice.
GBP/USD Buy Limit Strategy – Pullback Opportunity at Key BreakouThis trade setup proposes a Buy Limit at 1.3520, targeting a pullback entry after a strong bullish breakout visible on the M30 chart. The 1.3520 level aligns with a recent consolidation and breakout zone, offering a high-probability re-entry spot.
With a tight 45-pip stop-loss and a 100-pip take-profit, this setup delivers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.2. If the pullback holds at this level, price is expected to resume upward momentum toward 1.3620.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3434
1st Support: 1.3100
1st Resistance: 1.3767
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breaking above its previous swing high.GBP/USD Technical – Break of Structure, Liquidity Sweep, and Potential Downside Movement
The GBP/USD currency pair recently demonstrated significant bullish strength by breaking above its previous swing high, which resulted in a clear Break of Structure (BOS). This move indicated a continuation of the upward trend as the market pushed higher. However, the latest price action suggests a shift in sentiment that traders should be aware of.
Despite the earlier bullish momentum, the market has now swept the previous daily swing high—meaning it briefly moved above that level only to close back below it. This kind of price behavior often signals a potential liquidity grab rather than a sustained breakout. Such a move is frequently followed by a reversal or corrective move to the downside, as it indicates that institutional participants may have been targeting stop-losses or resting liquidity before driving the price in the opposite direction.
Given this, there is a growing possibility that the market may retrace further downward. A likely target could be the previously marked swing low, where additional liquidity may be resting. Moreover, beneath this level lies a Bullish Price Rebalance (BPR) zone, which could serve as an area of interest for a potential bullish reaction if the market taps into it.
At this stage, it's crucial to monitor price action closely and wait for further confirmations before taking any directional bias. Watching how the market behaves near the previous swing low and the underlying BPR zone can offer valuable insight into the next probable move.
As always, conduct your own thorough research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. This is not financial advice and is intended solely for educational and analytical purposes.
Cable at three-year highs$1.34684, 21 May’s intraday high, was the highest price for cable since the first quarter of 2022 and the culmination of a range of different factors from trade and political stability to monetary policy and economic data. The narrative of fear over the USA’s deficit has resurfaced within the last few days as American government bonds were downgraded, but stock markets haven’t seen a significant impact from this. The most likely scenario for the Fed now is next cut in September, and that seems to be possible for the BoE also after significantly higher British inflation.
The relatively limited reaction to British inflation on 21 May and quick retracement lower after the new high seem to suggest lower demand and possible profit-taking, so an immediate continuation upward is questionable. The slow stochastic signals overbought while volume remains low compared to the peak early last month. The next obvious target would be $1.35 while $1.32, the area of the 50 SMA from Bands, might be a support.
There’s not much major data coming up in the next few days for either currency, but the Fed’s minutes on 28 May might inform sentiment. 29 May’s American GDP could also drive movement if the result is significantly different from the advance figure.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
GBPUSD I Technical and Fundamental Forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Is GBP/USD's 1.3470 level a top or a new starting point?The GBP/USD pair retreated after hitting a three-year high of 1.3470, trading at 1.3405 during the European session, with daily gains narrowing to 0.1%. Although the hotter-than-expected UK April inflation data sparked concerns about a policy pivot by the Bank of England (BoE), the US dollar remained under pressure due to a sovereign rating downgrade, providing support for the British pound. The market is currently reassessing the divergence in policy paths between the UK and the US. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, the pound may maintain a high-range consolidation in the short term. In the near term, the 1.33-1.35 range is likely to be the focal point of multi-party and short-party contention. Traders need to closely monitor the UK retail sales data and US PMI data to be released on Friday, as evidence of economic resilience from either side could break the current equilibrium.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Pound steady as UK inflation surgesThe British pound posted gains earlier but has failed to consolidate. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3395, up 0.03% on the day. The pound has gained 1.1% this week and earlier today rose as high as 1.3468, its highest level since Feb. 2022.
UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in April, up sharply from 2.6% in March and above the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the highest annual inflation rate since Jan. 2024 and was driven by higher prices for transport, housing and energy. Monthly, inflation soared to 1.2%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 1.1%.
The news wasn't much better from core CPI, which rose to 3.8% from 3.4% and was higher than the market estimate of 3.6%. This was the highest reading since April 2024. Monthly, the core rate jumped to 1.4%, up from 0.5% and above the market estimate of 1.2%.
The rise in inflation can be partially attributed to the increase in the energy price cap and the Easter holidays, but is a disappointment for the government and for the Bank of England, as inflation had been trending lower.
The BoE will be concerned by the rise in core inflation, which will complicate plans to further reduce rates. The BoE trimmed the cash rate by a quarter-point earlier this month by 0.25%, but rates are still higher than other major central banks, with the exception of the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see attitude before it lowers rates again, especially with the uncertainty swirling around US tariff policy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said this week that even reduced tariffs would be "definitely economically significant" and said he favored one rate cut this year.
GBPUSD needs a catalyst. Could UK inflation be that?For now, FX_IDC:GBPUSD is struggling to overcome a key resistance barrier, at around 1.3440. Could the UK inflation numbers help move the pair?
Let's dig in...
MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD
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GBP/USD potential shorts back downMy analysis revolves around a possible bearish reaction from the 2‑hour supply zones. If price does respect these zones, I’ll look for a sell setup to drive price lower—though I’ll approach with caution because there’s liquidity resting just above those points of interest.
Should price push downward, my next target is the 10‑hour demand zone that triggered the recent change of character. This discounted area could spark a bullish response.
Confluences for GU sells are as follows:
- An unmitigated 4‑hour supply zone overhead.
- A “sell‑to‑buy” scenario fits: price sits closer to supply and still needs a retracement.
- Imbalance and untapped liquidity lie below, inviting a move south.
- Liquidity has just been swept above, leaving a clean supply zone behind.
P.S. If price punches through these supply zones and breaks structure to the upside, I’ll watch for the new zone that forms—there could be a nearer‑term long opportunity from there.
GBPUSD - Double Top Formation in Focus?The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3278, showing signs of consolidation within a well-established range after recovering from the early April lows near 1.2700. Price action over the past month has created a series of higher lows while repeatedly testing resistance in the 1.3400-1.3450 zone highlighted by the light blue rectangle. The higher probability scenario suggests that cable is likely to make another push toward this critical resistance area, potentially forming a double top with the early May peak around 1.3450. This technical formation would be significant for traders, as a successful breakout above this double top structure could trigger a substantial bullish move, while rejection might lead to a deeper correction. However, the current market structure and momentum favor an eventual upside resolution, with the green arrow indicating a potential target above 1.3450 if buyers can muster sufficient strength to overcome this formidable resistance level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
We can see 6K drop in the longs. closed on the Tuesday highs, if they want to take prices higher, they will build a poosition on the lower prices. Hence, I think we will see a bearish week.
Hey, what up traders, another week, another COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. I'm always trying to trade with the Big players, so knowing their positions is a good thing.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again, we as retail traders have a disadvantage, but there is the possibility to read between the lines. Remember, in the report is what they want you to see; that's why prices mostly reverse on Wednesday after the report, so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However, if the trend is running, you can read it and use it to your advantage.
📍Tip: If the level has confluence with the high volume on COT, it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Have a great trading week, see in the next report.
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GBPUSD 1H CHART PATTERNThe GBP/USD 1-hour chart shows the pair trading in a strong uptrend within an ascending channel. Price is nearing a key resistance area, where a potential reversal is anticipated. The chart highlights a possible sell opportunity as bullish momentum may be weakening near the channel's upper boundary. A clear rejection from this zone could signal the start of a bearish correction. This setup offers a high risk-to-reward ratio, especially if supported by further price action confirmation. Traders may watch for reversal patterns or signals before entering the trade to improve accuracy and minimize risk in this technical setup.
Entry: 1.34500
Target: 1.31500