GBPUSD Analysis Update 4/14 10:18am, pending confirmationI've been closely analyzing GBP/USD this week, and here's my updated view based on all the technical indicators and fundamental data.
Price Action & Key Levels
Right now, GBP/USD is trading at 1.31537, after rejecting 1.320 resistance earlier in the session. The market made a strong attempt to break above 1.320, but sellers stepped in, causing a pullback. Given this rejection, I'm watching 1.317 closely—if price fails to reclaim that level, a bearish continuation toward 1.312–1.310 becomes increasingly likely.
Technical Indicators & Market Signals
Momentum & Trend Strength
RSI: Short-term signals suggest price is consolidating (RSI at 48.78), while the daily RSI (76.08) indicates overbought conditions, meaning a larger pullback may be ahead.
Aroon Oscillator: Weakening bullish strength, suggesting trend exhaustion.
ADX: At 10.1 (1-hour), showing weak trend momentum, meaning price might stay range-bound or reverse lower.
MACD: Mixed signals—some divergence appears, showing signs of a potential downward move.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From 1.320 High)
23.6% retracement: 1.3172 → Minor resistance zone.
38.2% retracement: 1.3158 → Current price zone.
50% retracement: 1.3143 → Potential short-term support.
61.8% retracement: 1.3129 → Stronger support level.
78.6% retracement: 1.3110 → Critical breakdown point.
If GBP/USD fails to reclaim 1.317, I anticipate further downside toward 1.312–1.311, where stronger support exists.
Bollinger Bands Confirmation
Upper Band (~1.320): Acted as resistance—price rejected this zone, confirming sellers stepped in.
Middle Band (~1.315–1.316): Price hovering here—neutral consolidation phase.
Lower Band (~1.312–1.313): If price breaks below 1.314, downward momentum is likely toward this level.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
GBP Weakness: Expected softer BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation Rate data, which could weigh on GBP/USD.
USD Strength: Strong Retail Sales figures and upcoming Fed Chair Powell’s speech might bolster the Dollar, adding further downside pressure to GBP/USD.
Trade Setup & Execution Strategy
Bearish Case:
If GBP/USD fails at 1.317, I’ll look to enter short below 1.3155, targeting 1.312 or lower.
Bullish Case:
If GBP/USD reclaims 1.317, buyers could push price back toward 1.320 resistance.
Conclusion
At the moment, GBP/USD is at a decision point—while short-term indicators suggest some consolidation, rejection at 1.320 confirms bearish pressure. If sellers hold control, I expect price to move toward 1.312–1.311 in the coming sessions, making a short setup favorable. However, if price reclaims 1.317, buyers may attempt another test of 1.320 resistance.
