GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas
GBPUSD D1 LongD1 Long GBPUSD
Based on trend and candle structure
80% probability
TP on next PSYchological level not far at all
GBP/USD – Macro Outlook & Why It’s a Top Pick This WeekMacro Fundamentals (ENDO):
The UK macro backdrop remains inflationary, with solid growth data and resilient employment figures, supporting further GBP strength. Conversely, the US shows increasing deflationary signals and a softer macro pulse.
COT Positioning:
Institutional positioning is highly supportive, with a 74% long bias and strong “flip percentile.” This shows that “smart money” is increasingly positioned for further GBP/USD upside.
Z-Score (Positioning Extremes):
There are no extreme positioning imbalances in Z-Score for GBP or USD, suggesting the trend can continue without risk of a mean-reversion squeeze.
EXO Signals (Risk/Reward, Bias, Interest Rate Outlook):
Risk/reward metrics and bias signals favor the long side. The current risk-on sentiment in global markets also acts as a tailwind for GBP.
FX Sentiment:
The broader sentiment is risk-on, supporting currencies like GBP that tend to outperform in such environments.
Summary & Trading Plan:
Bias: Long GBP/USD
Conviction: High (9.5/10, all key signals aligned)
Ideal Holding Period: 1–3 weeks, as long as risk-on sentiment persists. Exit immediately if risk-off conditions emerge.
Why This Pair?
Because GBP/USD is the rare case where macro, institutional positioning, and market sentiment all support the same direction. This reduces “crosswinds” and increases the probability of a clean swing move. Watch for sustained risk-on flows and monitor for any macro or sentiment shifts.
30.06.2025 #GBPUSDSELL 1.37300 | STOP 1.37900 | TAKE 1.36600 | Downward local corrective price movement.
GBP/USD Testing Resistance at 2022 HighsSterling marked an outside weekly-reversal through slope resistance last week with the rally trading just below resistance into the close of the month at the 2022 swing high at 1.3749. Look for support at the June high at 1.3633 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close higher exposing the 61.8% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.4003. Weekly support rests with the 78.6% retracement at 1.3414 with media-term bullish invalidation now raised to the April high-week close (HWC) at 1.3270.
-MB
GBPUSD My analysis on GBPUSD not a financial advice do your due diligence. Thank you
Feel free to hop on this
GBPUSD bullishExpecting GU to continue bullish after clear rejection from the 1H support. We wait for a bullish confirmation candle before entry.
The Day Ahead A packed data slate and central bank commentary will shape market sentiment today. Key focus will be on China’s official PMIs for June, offering the first major insight into the health of the global manufacturing cycle as Q3 begins. A soft print could amplify global growth concerns, while a surprise to the upside may support risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
In the US, attention will turn to the June MNI Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for further clarity on the state of US industry after mixed regional data earlier this month. The consumer credit and M4 money supply data, along with Q1 current account figures, could influence the USD via their implications for domestic demand and external balances.
The UK sees the release of the Lloyds Business Barometer, which will provide a gauge of corporate confidence amid sticky inflation and persistent BoE rate cut speculation.
In the Eurozone, eyes will be on Germany’s June CPI flash estimate, retail sales, and import prices, all feeding into inflation expectations ahead of the ECB’s July policy meeting. Italy’s CPI and Eurozone May M3 will also be watched closely for signs of disinflation and liquidity trends.
From Japan, May industrial production and housing starts will help assess whether the domestic economy is managing to maintain momentum amid a weak yen and global headwinds.
On the central bank front, the ECB Forum in Sintra kicks off, running through July 2. President Christine Lagarde is due to speak, and any remarks on the rate path or inflation outlook will be closely parsed. Markets will also hear from Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee, potentially offering clues on the FOMC’s stance amid rising speculation around a September cut.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPUSD... timing, shakeout patterns...allowing a minimum 15 to 28 days market shakeout sets up suitable timing and good r:r.
GBPUSD ANALYSIS After seeing that the previous candle closed really bullish on the week we could expect that momentum to continue since the daily and the 4hr structure are not showing any signs of reversal
GBPUSD July Playbook: Bearish Setup at Channel High GBPUSD just printed a CC SELL signal right at the top of its rising channel — setting the stage for a potential July pullback.
📌 Breakdown using Vinnie’s Trading Cheat Code System:
✅ RSI Overbought zone triggered
✅ CC Sell + Confirm Sell combo at channel resistance (~1.38)
✅ Price stretched far above the mean with no higher timeframe support nearby
✅ MACD histogram rolling over — momentum shift in play
🎯 Targets:
1.3500 (channel median / recent base)
1.3280 (deeper support / previous Confirm Buy area)
This looks like a textbook trap-the-buyers setup. Patience on the entry — I’ll be stalking rallies to sell into.
🧠 Tools Used:
Vinnie’s Confirm Alerts
CC Trend Indicator
RSI OB/OS Scanner
MACD HPS Screener
Following this closely — could be one of the cleanest short opportunities of the month.
GBPUSD Daily Timeframe Analysis – Bullish Continuation SetupTechnical Analysis:
On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD maintains a bullish bias in the long term.
During the previous week, price action formed an impulsive bullish leg, confirming continued demand and momentum to the upside.
Currently, I expect a retracement to a key support zone (previous resistance), which is marked on the chart (red rectangle)
This zone could act as a potential entry point for buyers targeting higher levels.
A short-term retracement is expected toward the highlighted zone (red rectangle).
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📌 Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: 1.35900 – 1.36100
Take Profit (TP): 1.37500
Stop Loss (SL): 1.35250
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🔎 Outlook Summary:
This setup aligns with the broader trend, and I’ll be watching price reaction at the retracement zone closely. A bullish confirmation (like a bullish engulfing candle or pin bar) could validate the entry.
📌 Conclusion
I’ll be watching the retracement closely for confirmation before entering. A bullish candlestick setup in this area will strengthen the bullish continuation outlook.
GBPUSD Trend IdeaThe Daily timeframe shows a strong engulfing bullish candle, indicating a bullish trend in building up.
at 1Hr timeframe, a bullish flag formation is creating a retracement, possibly till 50/61.8% Fib level, before breaking the flag and continue up.
Let's look at these AOIs and check for a candle confirmation to take long trade.
Good Luck!
GU Friday Bearish ReviewHi everyone,
GBP/USD played out exactly as per forecast (link below if you'd like to revisit):
It was fairly simple price action to forecast, price sweeped 1.375 initially, taking out the Asian highs and the similar equal highs (liquidity)
Before then creating its bearish leg towards the next liquidity zone of 1.37.
I was able to jump onto a few moves throughout both London & NY (have thrown in those screenshots onto the chart for you guys)
Regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
1-1 student onboarding is currently open (website in my signature & profile)
Gbpusd Daily_TF Analysis within the bearish flag GBP/USD Daily Timeframe Analysis
1. The price is still trading within a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart.
2.Currently, the price is in a significant high on the higher timeframe.
3. There has been a recent breakout of resistance on the Daily Timeframe.
4. The breakout occurred at the same spot as the trendline breakout.
Expectation: We can anticipate a potential move to the downside for a retest of the previous resistance breakout level and the broken trendline. After a successful retest, the overall bullish trend may continue.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 27, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair held positive momentum near 1.3735 during Asian trading on Friday.
Concerns over the Fed's future independence continue to undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he is considering selecting the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, which has spurred fresh controversy over U.S. rate cuts. Trump said the list of potential successors to Powell had shrunk to “three or four people”, without naming any finalists.
In addition, weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data also sent the dollar lower. The U.S. economy contracted faster than expected in the first three months of this year, falling 0.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was below the previous estimate and the market consensus of -0.2%.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. At its June meeting, the UK central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, although three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3750, SL 1.3690, TP 1.3865
Possible GBPUSD LONG TradeTargeting bullish imbalance Order block for a long trade.
Expecting a sweep of the 4H CRT, then a reaction from the bullish order block.
GBPUSD Bullish SetupGBPUSD is currently bullish and printing a HH so we can take an instant buy entry by making last HL as SL, TP is also mentioned
Market next target 🔁 Disruption of the Current Bullish Analysis
1. Resistance Rejection Likelihood
The chart suggests a breakout above resistance will turn the red box into support.
Disruption: The price is currently at a key resistance zone, and multiple rejections in this area previously suggest selling pressure.
We could see a double top formation or a false breakout trapping bulls.
Look for wicks or long upper shadows indicating weakness.
2. Volume Divergence
Recent bullish candles show declining or inconsistent volume.
Disruption: A strong bullish breakout requires rising volume. If volume doesn't confirm price action, this move may lack conviction and reverse sharply.
3. Overbought Conditions
After a strong uptrend, RSI or Stochastic indicators (not shown, but implied) could be entering overbought territory.
Disruption: This suggests limited upside and a potential for mean reversion or correction.
4. Bearish Candlestick Pattern Watch
Watch closely for a bearish engulfing, shooting star, or evening star at this resistance zone.
Disruption: Any bearish reversal pattern here would strongly contradict the bullish breakout thesis.
GBP USD LONDON BREAKOUT as it was a war going on in my country iran i couldnt post till today ... this was the trade that i initiated eraly today fortunatly it hit the profit .. i try to analyse june at the end and post a sepreate analyse on lodon breakout strategy for now . be safe love you all from iran
Short #GBPUSD at 1.37489🚨 Shorting #GBPUSD at 1.37489 🚨
This is a financial freedom short. We're in the last quarter of the year, and it's time to move with precision. Every candle forms with the high, low, open, and close—the yearly candle is no exception. The endgame is near. 💼📉
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GBPUSD INTRADAY sideways consolidation breakoutThe GBPUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Level: 1.3600
This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.3600 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at:
1.3825 – Near-term resistance
1.3865 – Minor swing high
1.3900 – Longer-term bullish objective
On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.3600 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
1.3550 – Initial support
1.3500 – Key downside target
Conclusion:
As long as 1.3600 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
