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GBP/USD_SPT - GBP/USD

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GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas

GBP/USD: Bearish Divergence Flags Pullback Risk Bearish divergence between RSI (14) and price should have GBP/USD traders alert to the risk of a potential partial reversal of the recent bullish move. Those contemplating the setup could look to sell around current levels or slightly higher, with a stop placed above the recent high of 1.3207 for protection. Bids may emerge around 1.3140—the high set last Friday—although 1.3045 screens as a more appropriate target, given the amount of price action seen either side of it over extended periods last year. While RSI (14) has diverged from price, MACD continues to generate a bullish momentum signal. If the rally extends beyond 1.3207, the bearish setup would be invalidated. Even though price and momentum signals favour upside, signs of stability in U.S. Treasuries and stocks—two markets that likely contributed to last week’s U.S. dollar weakness—may support the greenback in the near term. Good luck! DS
Short
by davidscutt
1
GBPUSD Analysis 4/14 at 7:11pm I've been closely watching GBP/USD, and as of now, the pair is trading at 1.31771. Based on my technical analysis and upcoming market events, I believe the best trade setup is a short position, but only after confirming a rejection near 1.316–1.317. Why This Short Trade Makes Sense Overbought Conditions The daily RSI is at 76.08, meaning the pair is in overbought territory. This increases the likelihood of a pullback rather than a continued rally. Other momentum indicators (like Stochastic RSI) show that buying pressure is weakening, further supporting the case for a reversal. Key Resistance at 1.320 Price has tested 1.320 multiple times but failed to break above it, reinforcing this area as strong resistance. The recent high at 1.31998 showed rejection, indicating that bullish momentum is struggling. Upcoming Fundamental Events The UK retail sales data exceeded expectations, providing some short-term support for GBP. However, upcoming major US economic releases—including Empire State Manufacturing and Retail Sales—could shift sentiment. With Fed Chair Powell speaking on April 16, volatility is expected, and I prefer to wait for these catalysts before fully committing to a position. My Trade Plan Entry: I’ll wait to sell GBP/USD after confirming rejection at 1.316–1.317. Final Thoughts I’m waiting for clear price rejection before entering. If GBP/USD struggles to break higher and starts reversing at 1.316–1.317, that’s my signal to short. At the same time, I’ll watch how the upcoming economic events influence market sentiment—especially the US retail sales data and Powell’s speech. This approach ensures I’m trading based on confirmation rather than speculation, reducing the risk of entering prematurely.
Short
by Sel_Ali
GBPUSD - Longs - Fundamental Analysis My trade idea for GBPUSD: DXY (USD) News: On 2nd April 2025, US president Donald Trump announced tariffs of 10% on most imports and up to 145% on Chinese goods. This has led to significant market volatility. Investors are increasingly concerned about the U.S.'s economic direction, prompting a shift away from dollar-denominated assets. This sentiment has been exacerbated by fears of a potential recession, as highlighted by JPMorgan Chase's forecast. Major foreign investors, including those from China and Japan, are reportedly reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds. This retreat diminishes demand for the dollar, contributing to its depreciation. ​ Conclusion: We can expect a further decline in DXY price. Possible opportunity to long XXX/USD pairs. BXY (GBP) News: The UK economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.5% in February, official figures showed. Conclusion: With US placing tariffs globally, we can expect USD weakness over the next 2-3 weeks. GBP holds its ground with strong economic figures from Q1. My trade position: Between 14 - 18 Apr, I will be monitoring price action. Looking to buy below 1.32 with the first target being 1.35. 1.29 offers strong support.
Long
by TheForexMessiah
1
GBP/USD Breaking Key Fib Level, Bulls Eye September HighsThe British pound surged through the 78.6% Fib retracement near 1.3149, extending its post-breakout rally with a +0.77% daily gain. Price is now on track to test the September swing high at 1.3440 — the next major resistance zone. 📈 Price has reclaimed both the 50- and 200-day SMAs 📊 MACD is showing bullish momentum above the zero line 📍 RSI sits at 64.98 — bullish, but nearing overbought territory As long as GBP/USD holds above 1.3149, the path of least resistance remains higher. A clean break above 1.3440 would confirm a major trend reversal and open the door to a broader bullish cycle. -MW
by FOREXcom
1
GBPUSD Analysis 4/14/2025 1:35pmI've been closely watching GBP/USD, and as of now (with the pair trading around 1.31808), I see it moving within a tight consolidation range—roughly between 1.307 and 1.320. Given that I'm near the upper end of this range, I feel that jumping in right away could expose me to potential reversals or whipsaw moves. My plan is to take a short position, but only after the market pulls back to around 1.316. I view that level as a more attractive entry point since it’s toward the lower side of the current consolidation. This strategy offers me a better risk/reward setup; I can tighten my stops (placing a stop loss above recent highs around 1.320) while aiming for a move down toward the support area, which I expect could be around 1.304–1.305 if the sell-off continues. In addition, there are several high-impact economic events coming up for both the UK and US—ranging from GBP retail sales and employment data to key US manufacturing, retail sales, and even a speech from Fed Chair Powell. With all that volatility on the horizon, I prefer to wait and see how the news plays out. This way, I can avoid being caught in erratic moves and let market sentiment become clearer before I commit to my trade. To sum it up: I'm planning to short GBP/USD by waiting for a pullback to about 1.316, with a stop set just above 1.320, and a target closer to the lower support around 1.304–1.305. This approach takes into account the current consolidation, technical signals (like overbought conditions), and the upcoming fundamental catalysts that could swing the market.
Short
by Sel_Ali
UPDATE ON GBP/USD TRADEGBP/USD 15M - Wow, as you can see price is playing out really well for us, as it approaches the last high its important that we manage our trade accordingly, I have gone ahead and taken a partial. I want to see price break the last high, once it does it will confirm that the low set where we have entered in on this market is seen as protected which as a result should mean our entry is safe. This trade is currently running + 56 pips. (+ 2.4%) 2.4RR A big well done to all involved, if you have any questions with regards to the trade or the analysis itself then please drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible. Ensure you are managing your running trades correctly, taking partials throughout the position and applying safety measures, a big well done to all of you!
Long
by Lukegforex
1
GBP/USD + Fair Value GAPOn GBP/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.30160. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. (FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
GBPUSD Analysis Update 4/14 10:18am, pending confirmationI've been closely analyzing GBP/USD this week, and here's my updated view based on all the technical indicators and fundamental data. Price Action & Key Levels Right now, GBP/USD is trading at 1.31537, after rejecting 1.320 resistance earlier in the session. The market made a strong attempt to break above 1.320, but sellers stepped in, causing a pullback. Given this rejection, I'm watching 1.317 closely—if price fails to reclaim that level, a bearish continuation toward 1.312–1.310 becomes increasingly likely. Technical Indicators & Market Signals Momentum & Trend Strength RSI: Short-term signals suggest price is consolidating (RSI at 48.78), while the daily RSI (76.08) indicates overbought conditions, meaning a larger pullback may be ahead. Aroon Oscillator: Weakening bullish strength, suggesting trend exhaustion. ADX: At 10.1 (1-hour), showing weak trend momentum, meaning price might stay range-bound or reverse lower. MACD: Mixed signals—some divergence appears, showing signs of a potential downward move. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From 1.320 High) 23.6% retracement: 1.3172 → Minor resistance zone. 38.2% retracement: 1.3158 → Current price zone. 50% retracement: 1.3143 → Potential short-term support. 61.8% retracement: 1.3129 → Stronger support level. 78.6% retracement: 1.3110 → Critical breakdown point. If GBP/USD fails to reclaim 1.317, I anticipate further downside toward 1.312–1.311, where stronger support exists. Bollinger Bands Confirmation Upper Band (~1.320): Acted as resistance—price rejected this zone, confirming sellers stepped in. Middle Band (~1.315–1.316): Price hovering here—neutral consolidation phase. Lower Band (~1.312–1.313): If price breaks below 1.314, downward momentum is likely toward this level. Fundamental Factors Supporting Bearish Bias GBP Weakness: Expected softer BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation Rate data, which could weigh on GBP/USD. USD Strength: Strong Retail Sales figures and upcoming Fed Chair Powell’s speech might bolster the Dollar, adding further downside pressure to GBP/USD. Trade Setup & Execution Strategy Bearish Case: If GBP/USD fails at 1.317, I’ll look to enter short below 1.3155, targeting 1.312 or lower. Bullish Case: If GBP/USD reclaims 1.317, buyers could push price back toward 1.320 resistance. Conclusion At the moment, GBP/USD is at a decision point—while short-term indicators suggest some consolidation, rejection at 1.320 confirms bearish pressure. If sellers hold control, I expect price to move toward 1.312–1.311 in the coming sessions, making a short setup favorable. However, if price reclaims 1.317, buyers may attempt another test of 1.320 resistance.
Short
by Sel_Ali
GBP/USD ANALYSISGBP/USD 15M - As you can see price has traded down and into the Demand Zone we have marked out above, this is after price has cleared and absorbed a level of Supply in the market. This tells me that there is more Demand in the market than there is Supply and price is still showing clear signs of bullish structure with it not breaking any protected lows. This trade is currently running + 17 pips. (+ 0.77%) 0.77RR Based on this I have gone ahead and placed a long position with my SL below the zone I have gone ahead and got involved from and my TP is set at a higher timeframe area of Supply where I feel it may shake price once it trades in. Well done to those of you who jumped in on this trade, if you have any questions with regards to the analysis or the trade itself drop me a message or comment below!
Long
by Lukegforex