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GBP/USD_SPT - GBP/USD

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 31, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair continued to decline to the 1.29550 level in the early Asian session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is declining following the UK budget announcement. Later on Thursday, attention will shift to US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. The UK's New Labour government released its first budget on Wednesday, which includes a GBP 40 billion tax hike to plug a hole in public finances and allow investment in public services, CNBC reported. One of the measures that is projected to bring the most revenue to the UK's coffers is an increase in the amount employers pay in National Insurance (NI), a payroll tax. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter came in below expectations. ADP's October employment change report showed that private companies hired more people than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut at the November meeting at nearly 95.2%. The release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday may provide some hints on the size and pace of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September, while core PCE for the same period is expected to rise 0.3% m/m. The softer-than-expected result may raise hopes for deeper rate cuts and put pressure on the US dollar. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.29500, if the level is fixed below we consider Sell positions, if the level rebounds we consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GbpUsd- Preparing for reversalAs I mentioned last week, I’m closely monitoring the GBP/USD pair for a potential upside reversal. This expectation is based on the recent overlapping decline, which is contained within a channel, as well as the proximity to a significant support level. In recent days, the pair hit a local low of 1.2912 before reversing toward 1.3000 and beginning a consolidation phase. I believe it’s only a matter of time before GBP/USD clears the 1.3000 mark, potentially accelerating toward a target around 1.3150.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6
GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - Preliminary German CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and the previous month's figure. - U.S. Q3 GDP grew by an annualized 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of market expectations. - U.S. ADP private employment increased by 233,000, surpassing both market expectations and the previous month's revised figure, raising anticipation for this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate data. - ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated that the fight against inflation continues, and a gradual approach remains appropriate to remove policy constraints. - The Fed has entered its blackout period, and the CME FedWatch tool reflects a 96.1% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the November meeting. Economic Indicators -October 31: Bank of Japan rate decision, Eurozone October Consumer Price Index, U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. - November 1: U.S. October Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate. Chart Analysis GBP/USD appears to be rising, supported by the trendline, suggesting potential growth up to the 1.34000 level. However, if Trump wins the election, there may be an adjustment to the Fed’s rate cut pace, which could impact market direction. If the lower trend support breaks, GBP/USD is likely to retreat toward the 1.26000 line. If market direction shifts downward due to various factors, we will promptly adjust our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Falling towards pullback support?The Cable (GBP/USD)n is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.2908 1st Support: 1.2866 1st Resistance: 1.3024 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing Support Hello Traders In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
GBP/USD: High-Probability Strategies Based on Classic Reversal We're looking at an interesting technical setup on the GBP/USD daily chart, where a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern has formed, signaling a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Here’s a breakdown of the context and two trade strategies based on this pattern and key levels. Trend and Context Analysis The Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern suggests a possible bearish reversal, particularly after the formation of the right shoulder. There’s an ascending channel marked by yellow dotted lines, which represents a long-term dynamic resistance level. The 50 and 200 moving averages are positioned to act as potential support and resistance levels, while the TDIGM indicator is helping us spot momentum highs and lows, providing additional context for price movement strength. Strategies 1. Sell on Neckline Break Confirmation of the H&S Pattern Rationale: A break of the neckline in an H&S pattern typically provides a strong sell signal. This setup is often a reliable trend reversal indicator, and a confirmed break would likely lead to a sharp decline in GBP/USD. Risk-Reward: .Stop above the right shoulder; target before the harmonic pattern’s point C for a favorable risk-reward ratio. The probability of success is high if the neckline break confirms, as H&S patterns often lead to significant moves. .Entry: Sell at 1.2910 after confirming the neckline break. .Stop Loss: 1.3070 (above the right shoulder). .Take Profit: 1.2400 (just above the harmonic pattern’s point D). .Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3. 2. Buy at Lower Channel Line Support Rationale: If the price doesn’t break the neckline and instead dips to the ascending channel's lower boundary, a buy setup may be considered. This lower channel line has historically acted as solid support, providing a controlled-risk entry point. Risk-Reward: Place the stop below the channel, and aim for the upper channel line as the target. This strategy is more conservative, given the overall bearish H&S structure. .Entry: Buy after a confirmed rejection of the H&S pattern and confirmation that price respects the ascending channel. .Stop Loss: 1.2810 (below the nearest resistance). .Take Profit: Between the left shoulder and head of the H&S pattern. .Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2+. Final Thoughts These strategies leverage both the reversal patterns and dynamic supports, as well as indicator signals. For each strategy, it’s recommended to monitor key support and resistance zones closely and confirm breakouts on lower timeframes before entering. Price action is key .
Short
by MrVNpt
The UK's £40 Billion Budget: What Does it Mean For GBP Traders?For traders following GBP/USD and GBP/EUR, today’s UK budget rollout might be impactful. The Labour government’s plan introduces a £40 billion tax increase and invests in infrastructure—moves that could shape the pound’s trajectory. While the fiscal measures aim to strengthen public finances, they may exert near-term pressure on GBP, potentially affecting growth rates. Watching these shifts will be key for traders. GBP/USD Potential Historically, GBP/USD has been sensitive to fiscal news, and today’s budget may stir some extra volatility. Currently, GBP/USD sits around key support at 1.30—a level it’s held onto in recent dips. Should today’s announcements apply downside pressure, GBP/USD could test support around 1.28, with 1.25 being the next significant marker. On the upside, if the market views these tax increases as beneficial for stability, the pair might target 1.3150 resistance. Strong consumer or growth data could provide further support toward this level, but breaking above it may require more robust economic updates. GBP/EUR Potential With GBP/EUR, there’s a bit of a balancing act at play. While tax hikes could weigh on GBP, ongoing eurozone challenges might stabilise the pair. GBP/EUR remains in a defined range, with support around 1.14 and resistance at 1.16. Any shifts in ECB policy—especially if hawkish—could nudge the euro higher, influencing the pair’s movement. Macro & Technical Balancing Act On a broader scale, the Bank of England’s rate path will be essential here. If rates rise to keep inflation in check, this could add support for GBP. However, tax hikes could dampen consumer demand, potentially easing pressure on the BoE for further rate hikes in the short term. In summary, today’s budget introduces potential volatility for GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Watching 1.28 or 1.3150 on GBP/USD, and the range in GBP/EUR, will provide useful signals. With both the BoE and ECB in play, staying tuned to macro updates and watching price action around key levels could help traders stay ahead. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone