check the trendA correction to the support zone is expected. Then there is a possibility of a trend change, and an upward and fluctuating trend is likely.
GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas
Possibility of correction The price is expected to consolidate above the current support level. Then, a continuation of the uptrend is likely. Otherwise, a continuation of the downtrend to the specified support levels is possible.
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Sterling Bulls Wrestle 2024 HighsThe British Pound has rallied more than 11.1% off the yearly low with GBP/USD trading into uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. Building momentum divergence highlights the risk for exhaustion here and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term while below this slope.
Initial support rests with the objective weekly open at 1.3313 and is backed by the April opening-range high (ORH) at 1.3207. A break / close below the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered this week / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support seen at 1.3111 with broader bullish invalidation raised to the 1.30-handle.
A topside breach / close above the upper parallel would expose subsequent topside objectives at the 2019 high at 1.3515 backed by the 1.36-handle and the 2022 high-day close (HDC) at 1.3705- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
The British Pound rally off the yearly lows has extended into uptrend resistance at the yearly highs on building bearish momentum divergence- mounting risk for exhaustion here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 1.32 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
Trading balanceTrading balance The price of the asset has rebounded from the balance zone. With the prospect of growth into the resistance zone.
GBPUSD pays attention to buying opportunities on pullbacksIn the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD broke through the triangle consolidation and bulls are currently in the lead. Currently, we can pay attention to the support around 1.335. If it falls back and stabilizes, we can consider continuing to buy. The upward target is 1.350-1.364.
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 1.3431 which is a swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.3294 an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.3558, above the 161.8% Fibo extension.
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GBPUSDKey Central Banks and Interest Rate Outlook
Bank of England (BoE) Governor: Andrew Bailey Expected to maintain a cautious stance; markets price in a 25 bps rate cut in May 2025 and possibly three cuts by year-end, reflecting downgraded UK growth forecasts and inflation concerns. Rate cuts tend to weaken GBP, but cautious BoE tone and market overpricing of easing provide some support to GBP.
Federal Reserve (Fed)Chair: Jerome Powell Under political pressure; markets expect Fed rate cuts if U.S. inflation cools amid trade war fears and recession risks. Fed easing weakens USD, supporting GBP/USD upside.
Summary of Influences on GBP/USD Direction
US Dollar Weakness: Political turmoil, trade tensions, and recession fears are driving USD lower, benefiting GBP/USD.
UK Economic Outlook: Slower growth and inflation uncertainties prompt expected BoE easing, which could limit GBP gains.
Trade War Impact: US tariffs and global trade tensions add uncertainty but have limited direct impact on the UK economy so far.
Technical Factors: Bullish patterns and strong support levels favor further GBP/USD appreciation in the near term.
Conclusion
GBP/USD’s directional bias is bullish for the short to medium term, supported by a weakening USD amid political and economic uncertainties in the U.S., and technical signals favoring upward momentum. However, expected monetary easing by the Bank of England may cap gains, so traders should watch BoE’s May meeting and U.S. inflation data closely for shifts in interest rate expectations that could influence the pair’s trajectory.
GBPUSD - April ReviewThere is a chance that we close bullish inside of the higher time frame 3-month SIBI @ 1.34826 - 1.38384 for this month but i am seeking a short-term retracement into lower timeframe PD arrays before a continued expansion higher.
1.31356 is in the cards.
Sell a gbp/usdPromise the indicator show down trend. Beside the price already break support. Take profit in fibo 261
GBP Gains as Tariff Risk Stays LowThe British pound rose to $1.332, near its highest level since February 2022, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Sterling gained 3.2% in April, its best month since November 2023. The UK is seen as less exposed to U.S. tariffs, which President Trump has delayed until July. In 2024, the U.S. ran a $12 billion goods surplus with the UK, unlike its deficits with China and the EU, reducing trade risk. The pound also benefits from expectations that the Bank of England will be more cautious than others in cutting rates. Markets expect about 85 basis points of easing this year, which is in line with the Fed. Investors now await key U.S. jobs and inflation data for dollar direction.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, the next resistance levels are 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support levels are at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
The Day Ahead Macroeconomic Data Releases (Market-Moving Potential):
US Data
ISM Manufacturing Index (April): A key indicator of manufacturing health; impacts USD, equities, and bond yields.
Total Vehicle Sales: Reflects consumer demand and manufacturing strength.
Construction Spending (March): Signals strength in real estate and infrastructure sectors.
Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly indicator of labor market health; influences Fed policy expectations.
UK Data
Net Consumer Credit & M4 (March): Provides insight into consumer borrowing and money supply growth; can affect GBP and BoE policy outlook.
Japan
Consumer Confidence Index (April): Influences sentiment on domestic consumption; impacts JPY and Nikkei index.
Canada
Manufacturing PMI (April): Indicator of economic activity; affects CAD and TSX.
Central Bank Activity:
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Decision:
Key focus on any adjustments to yield curve control or forward guidance. High impact on JPY, Japanese equities, and global bond markets.
Corporate Earnings (High-impact, broad sector exposure):
Mega-cap Tech & Consumer:
Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, Roku, Wayfair, Reddit: Major influence on Nasdaq and sentiment in growth/tech stocks.
Financials & Payments:
Mastercard, Block, Blue Owl Capital, KKR: Insight into consumer spending and credit trends.
Healthcare:
Eli Lilly, CVS Health, Moderna, Stryker, Amgen: Updates on drug pipelines and healthcare services; influences biotech sentiment.
Industrials & Energy:
McDonald's, Linde, Harley-Davidson, Dominion Energy, United States Steel, Targa Resources, Howmet Aerospace: Read-throughs for global demand, input costs, and supply chains.
Other Key Sectors:
Estee Lauder (Luxury/Consumer), Duolingo & Twilio (Tech/EdTech), Live Nation (Services), Maplebear (Instacart), Cameco (Uranium/Nuclear): Diverse sector insights.
Other Notable Events:
UK Local Elections:
Though local, outcomes may indicate broader political sentiment, especially ahead of a potential general election. Moves in GBP, UK equities, and gilts possible if results hint at political instability or changes in economic policy outlook.
Trading Implications:
Equities: Expect high volatility due to major earnings releases and macro data. Sectors like tech, healthcare, and consumer discretionary could see significant moves.
FX: USD, JPY, and GBP in focus due to data and central bank developments.
Bonds: ISM, jobless claims, and BoJ decision may affect global yield curves.
Commodities: Vehicle sales and construction data may influence oil/metals demand expectations.
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The Day Ahead Wednesday April 30
Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, April ADP report, MNI Chicago PMI, March core PCE, personal income and spending, pending home sales, China April official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany April CPI, retail sales, import price index, unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, France April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Q1 GDP, Italy April CPI, March PPI, Q1 GDP, Eurozone Q1 GDP, Canada February GDP, Australia Q1 CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Muller speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Iberdrola, Santander, UBS, KLA, Equinix, GSK, Tokyo Electron, MediaTek, Equinor, Mercedes-Benz Group, Credit Agricole, Barclays, Volkswagen, CaixaBank, Deutsche Post, Haleon, Robinhood, Societe Generale, Humana, eBay, GE HealthCare, ArcelorMittal, Evolution AB, Repsol, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, Etsy
Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPUSD(20250430)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank expects prices to rise 2.9% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in February, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. This is the highest level since April 2024. The three-year indicator rose slightly to 2.5%. The ECB's first five-year forecast was 2.1%.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3409
Support and resistance levels:
1.3471
1.3448
1.3433
1.3385
1.3370
1.3347
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3409, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3433
If the price breaks through 1.3385, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3370
Where market reverse?Hello all. I consider 2 important situations. one of them will be end of correction. can you guess which one is correct? and why? Plz CM me. I wanna hear your ideas.
Pound Pressured by BOE Cut ExpectationsGBP/USD dipped to approximately 1.3425 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, as a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar put pressure on the pair. The dollar was supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, following China’s decision to exempt certain U.S. imports from tariffs, despite its denial of ongoing negotiations.
Meanwhile, expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in May continue to weigh on the pound. Markets are now focused on an upcoming speech by BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, with any dovish remarks likely to add further downside pressure on the GBP.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
GBPUSD: Eyeing a Bullish Structure Shift - A Wyckoffian ApproachGBPUSD 🚦 Technical Analysis & Trade Plan
📊 Current Market Structure
The GBPUSD 4-hour chart is currently consolidating just below a set of equal highs, indicating a potential liquidity pool above. Price action has shown a series of higher lows, suggesting underlying bullish pressure. The market is in a range, with buyers and sellers in equilibrium, but the clustering of highs signals a likely stop-hunt or breakout scenario.
🧠 Wyckoff Perspective
From a Wyckoff standpoint, the market appears to be in the late stages of accumulation. The equal highs represent a classic “creek” or resistance, where smart money may engineer a breakout to trigger stops and induce breakout traders. A successful breakout, followed by a retrace to retest the broken highs (now support), and a subsequent bullish structure break, would confirm the presence of strong demand and the start of a mark-up phase.
🌍 Fundamental Backdrop
Fundamentally, GBP has been supported by resilient UK economic data and a slightly hawkish tone from the Bank of England, while the USD faces headwinds from softer inflation prints and dovish Fed rhetoric. However, geopolitical risks and global risk sentiment remain key drivers, so any sudden shifts could impact the pair.
📰 Current Sentiment
Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic for GBPUSD. CFTC positioning shows a reduction in net GBP shorts, and recent price action reflects a willingness to buy dips. However, the presence of equal highs suggests that many traders are watching for a breakout, increasing the likelihood of a stop-run before a genuine move higher.
🏦 Trade Idea
Entry: Buy on a confirmed break above the current equal highs (around 1.3340), wait for a retrace to retest the broken highs, and enter long on a bullish structure break (e.g., a higher low and bullish engulfing candle).
Stop Loss: Place stops below the retracement low (e.g., below 1.3300).
Take Profit: Target the next significant resistance zone (e.g., 1.3400–1.3450), scaling out as price approaches these levels.
Risk Management: Risk no more than 1–2% of your trading capital on this setup.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The analysis and trade idea provided are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
GBPUSD Rejected at Key Resistance – Bearish Outlook StaysLast week, in my GBPUSD analysis, I highlighted that the pair had reached a major resistance area – a level that has acted as both support and resistance over the past few years. I mentioned that a correction from this zone was very likely.
The market reacted perfectly: GBPUSD dropped from that resistance, and after the initial move, it entered into a consolidation phase.
The key question now: Is the correction finished or will the downside continue?
My outlook remains the same – I still expect further downside towards the 1.3000 level.
Here’s why I stay bearish:
- Strong historical resistance rejected the price.
- No real bullish momentum above 1.34 zone.
- Consolidation after the drop looks more like a pause, not a reversal.
Trading Plan:
I will look to sell rallies, staying bearish as long as the 1.3400 area (recent high) is not broken.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
GBP/USD 28/4/25 - Signal PrepGBP/USD Trade Setup
- Bullish Signal We are anticipating bullish momentum on GBP/USD with the following levels in focus:
Entry Price: 1.3308
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.3323
TP2: 1.3343
TP3: 1.3368
Stop Loss: 1.3254
This setup suggests a potential upside move as the pair shows signs of strength. Traders may look to enter around the specified entry point and scale out at the marked take profit levels, while maintaining a controlled risk with the stop loss in place. As always, manage your position size appropriately based on your trading plan.
