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GBP/USD_SPT - GBP/USD

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis 22 November 2024 - GBPUSD broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.2465 GBPUSD currency pair recently broke the support zone located between the support level 1.2620 (former monthly low from June) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from September. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (C) from the start of November. Given the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment seen today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2465, former monthly low from May and the target for the completion of the active impulse 3.
Short
by FxProGlobal
GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It’s great to have you all here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the like button and subscribe! Key Points - UK October CPI: Recorded at 2.3%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.2%. - Fed Uncertainty: Mixed statements from recent Fed officials have increased uncertainty about Fed rate policy. FedWatch now reflects a 52.3% probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the December FOMC, nearly equal to the likelihood of holding rates steady. - Ukraine Conflict: Ukraine, with UK-backed Storm Shadow missiles, launched another attack on Russian territory. However, reports of Russia signaling a willingness for a ceasefire have eased concerns over further escalation. - NVIDIA Earnings: NVIDIA outperformed market expectations in both revenue and net profit for Q3. Major Economic Calendar - November 21: U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - November 22: UK October Retail Sales, U.S. November Manufacturing PMI, U.S. November Services PMI GBP/USD Chart Analysis GBP/USD is showing a rebound from the 1.26000 level, climbing upwards. The pair is currently bouncing off the lower trendline of its upward trend, suggesting potential for further gains up to the 1.34000 level. However, if the price reverses and breaks below the lower trendline, it could signal a trend reversal. In such a case, a decline toward the 1.20000 level might be anticipated, necessitating a strategy adjustment.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Gbpusd setupGBP/USD declines toward 1.2650, erases UK CPI-led gains GBP/USD loses its traction and retreats toward 1.2650 on Wednesday. Although the stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK helped Pound Sterling gather strength, the risk-averse market atmosphere caused the pair to reverse its direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 50 early Wednesday, highlighting an increasing buyer interest. GBP/USD was last seen trading slightly above 1.2700, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the latest downtrend is located. In case the pair confirms this level as support, it could face next resistance at 1.2740-1.2750 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) before 1.2800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Short
by KingForex078
UK inflation expected to jump to 2.2%The British pound is steady on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP is trading at 1.2678 at the time of writing, unchanged on the day. On Monday, the pound ended a six-day slide, during which the currency lost 2.8%. The Bank of England has done an excellent job slashing inflation, which was in double digits for much of 2023. The September inflation report was a milestone as inflation eased to 1.7%, the first time it was below the BoE target of 2% since April 2021. Still, the BoE is under no illusions that the tenacious battle against inflation is over. Services inflation has fallen significantly but is running at 4.9%, more than double the target. The Trump election win has raised deep concerns that Trump’s trade policy promises, with threats of tariffs on US trading partners, could lead to higher global inflation. The BoE lower rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, marking the second rate cut in the current easing cycle. The September inflation report contributed to the decision to lower rates at that meeting and Wednesday’s inflation release will be closely monitored by the BoE, with the following inflation report coming out on Dec. 18, just one day before the BOE’s next rate announcement. BoE Governor Bailey said in a report to the House of Commons Treasury select committee that the BoE needed to keep a close eye on services inflation, which remained above a level that was compatible with “on target inflation”. Bailey also stated that he favored a gradual approach to cutting rates in order for the central bank to assess the effects of the government’s recent budget on growth and inflation. The BoE’s November forecasts indicate that the budget will result in higher growth and inflation in the near term, which could slow the pace of rate cuts. GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2707 and 1.2736 1.2629 and 1.2658 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USDOn Monthly, 200, 50 and 20 EMA are above the price and Bearishly going down to 1.2480 Support and 52 Weeks Low @ 1.2090. On Weekly, 200, 50 and 20 EMA are above the price created a solid Bearish candle . On Daily, 200, 50 and 20 EMA are above the price and it shows that has cut through 1.275 Support and Daily Trendline. on 1H chart, it has formed Morning Star for pull back / Correction and it shows 200, 50 and 20 EMA are above the price. It definityely show a confluence of a strong Bearish move.
Short
by Ha-Lion
Forex Trade Planning: USD Dominance and Potential CorrectionToday's trade planning session highlighted the USD as the strongest currency on the daily Currency Strength Index (CSI), while the EUR emerged as the weakest. General CSI Overview: Buy pairs: USD, CHF, GBP, JPY, AUD Sell pairs: CAD, NZD, EUR In our H1 timeframe market analysis, we anticipate a deeper correction in existing trends. The wave structure for major pairs versus the USD has reached momentum high and momentum low 5. From this level, a correction of the trend is expected. It is important to note that significant effort and time are required for a trend reversal. Nevertheless, there has been a notable decline, breaking key structures in USDJPY, which could indicate a more substantial downturn for the USD and potentially lead to a larger secondary trend. Trade carefully and happy trading!
by Charts247TradingAcademy
"GBPUSD: Decline Likely to Accelerate Post-Breakdown"The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward trajectory, signaling a sustained bearish momentum in the market. Currently, the price is testing a critical support level at 1.267, showing indications of a potential false breakdown. This pattern often precedes a short-lived recovery, misleading market participants before the broader trend resumes. While the U.S. dollar has slightly lost ground in recent trading sessions, the overall sentiment still leans in its favor, maintaining pressure on the pound. From a technical standpoint, the false breakdown around 1.267 could serve as a catalyst for a brief corrective move. Such movements are often seen as "bull traps" or manipulative price actions intended to shake out weak positions before resuming the primary trend. Key resistance levels that traders should monitor during this potential correction include 1.272, 1.277, and 1.280. These zones represent areas of interest where selling pressure might reassert itself, reinforcing the downward trajectory. On a fundamental level, the outlook for GBP/USD remains grim. The pound faces significant headwinds amid a broadly bullish U.S. dollar environment, fueled by factors such as economic resilience in the U.S., rising Treasury yields, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Simultaneously, the UK economy continues to grapple with subdued growth prospects, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties. These dynamics are creating a challenging backdrop for sterling, with downward pressure expected to persist in the medium term. A critical scenario to consider is the possibility of a breakdown below 1.267. Should this support level fail and the price consolidate beneath it, the bearish case would strengthen considerably. In this event, the next significant support levels to watch would be 1.261, 1.250, and potentially lower, as sellers might gain momentum and accelerate the decline. For traders, the key lies in observing price behavior at the identified levels. If the bears successfully defend the 1.267 mark and establish firm control below it, the likelihood of an intensified sell-off becomes much higher. Conversely, if the price stages a recovery, traders should remain cautious of the resistance levels mentioned earlier, as these could serve as turning points for renewed bearish action. In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is at a pivotal juncture, with the interplay between technical patterns and fundamental drivers determining its next major move. While a temporary correction remains plausible, the broader picture continues to favor a bearish outlook, with further declines anticipated in the medium term. As always, careful monitoring of key levels and market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this dynamic trading environment.
Short
by lonelyPlayer0
Navigating High Volatility Periods in TradingMarket volatility is a critical aspect of trading, and during certain periods—particularly around significant news events—this volatility becomes more pronounced. The graphic titled *"The Cycle of Market Volatility"* effectively captures the stages involved in how markets react and stabilize after major news events. These events, such as red folder news releases, economic reports, and elections, are pivotal moments that traders need to approach with both caution and strategy. The Cycle of Market Volatility 1. News Events Occur High-impact news, known as *red folder news*, includes economic data releases such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), central bank interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and major political developments like elections. These events are known for triggering swift market movements and increased volatility. 2. Market Reaction Once the news breaks, markets tend to react swiftly. Prices may shoot up or down as traders digest the new information and position themselves accordingly. The initial reaction is often driven by the big institutional players, and retail traders are frequently caught up in the momentum. 3. Media Amplification After the initial market response, the media plays a significant role in amplifying the event. Analysts, news outlets, and social media start discussing the potential ramifications, which often leads to further market movement. Speculation and public sentiment can magnify the volatility. 4. Trader Response As traders react to both the news and the media coverage, there can be an increase in trading volumes. Some traders might attempt to capitalize on the price swings, while others might exit their positions to avoid losses. Emotions like fear and greed tend to dominate in this phase, making it essential for traders to stick to their strategies. 5. Market Stabilization Eventually, after the initial surge in price movement and emotional trading subsides, the market begins to stabilize. Once the news has been fully priced in and the dust settles, the markets may find equilibrium, and normal trading conditions resume—until the next major event. Trading During High Volatility: Pros and Cons Trading during high volatility events such as red folder news releases and elections can be both rewarding and dangerous. Let's explore some of the **pros and cons** of trading during these periods: Pros Large Profit Opportunities Volatility creates sharp price movements, and for traders who can accurately predict market direction, these swings can translate into significant profits in a short period. For example, interest rate announcements or jobs data releases can cause currencies to move hundreds of pips in minutes. Increased Liquidity High-impact events often bring more participants into the market, leading to increased liquidity. This means trades can be executed more quickly, and spreads (the difference between bid and ask prices) may narrow, offering better trading conditions for short-term traders. Clear Trends Often after a red folder event, markets establish clearer trends. Whether it’s a sharp bullish or bearish move, traders may find it easier to follow the trend and capitalize on the momentum rather than dealing with the choppier markets typically seen in low-volatility periods. Cons Whipsaw Risk One of the biggest dangers of trading during high volatility is the potential for whipsaw movements. The market may initially react one way, only to reverse sharply after further analysis or new information comes to light. This can lead to traders being stopped out or suffering losses as prices swing unpredictably. Wider Spreads While liquidity can increase, the initial reaction to major news can cause spreads to widen dramatically. This can eat into potential profits and make it difficult for traders to enter or exit positions at favorable prices. Emotional Trading News events tend to stir up emotions in traders—especially fear and greed. These emotions can cloud judgment, causing traders to deviate from their trading plans, make impulsive decisions, or over-leverage themselves in pursuit of quick gains. Gaps in the Market High-impact news can cause gaps in the market, where price jumps from one level to another without trading in between. This can be hazardous for traders who are in open positions, as stop-loss orders may not be filled at the expected price, leading to larger losses than anticipated. Key Red Folder Events and How to Approach Them Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Perhaps the most influential news events, interest rate decisions by central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank can cause massive volatility in Forex markets. Traders need to watch not just the decision itself but also the accompanying statements and guidance for future monetary policy. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Released monthly, the U.S. NFP report often leads to sharp movements in the USD and related currency pairs. The NFP provides insights into the health of the U.S. economy and is closely watched by traders around the world. Elections and Political Events Elections, referendums, and major geopolitical developments (such as US elections last week) can cause sustained volatility in markets. Traders should be particularly cautious around these events as outcomes can be highly unpredictable, and market reactions may be extreme. Inflation Reports Inflation data can significantly impact market expectations for interest rates, which in turn influences currency values. Central banks tend to adjust their monetary policy based on inflation trends, making these reports crucial for traders. How to Trade Volatile Events Safely Have a Clear Plan Don’t enter trades during volatile periods without a well-thought-out strategy. Make sure to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels and be prepared for sudden market reversals. Consider Waiting for the Dust to Settle Instead of trading the immediate market reaction, some traders prefer to wait until the news has been fully digested. By waiting for clearer trends to form after the event, traders can reduce their risk of getting caught in whipsaw price movements. Practice Proper Risk Management With greater volatility comes greater risk, so it’s crucial to limit your exposure. Reduce your position sizes and avoid over-leveraging during these times. Risk management is vital to surviving and thriving in high-volatility environments. Stay Informed Understanding the context behind major news events is critical. Following economic calendars, staying updated on geopolitical developments, and listening to expert analysis can help traders navigate high-volatility markets more effectively. Conclusion Trading during high volatility periods can present both opportunities and risks. While the potential for quick profits is tempting, the unpredictability of the markets during these times requires discipline, a solid strategy, and strong risk management. Understanding the *Cycle of Market Volatility* can help traders better anticipate how markets react to red folder news and major events, allowing them to make more informed trading decisions.
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
GBPUSD Start thinking of buying. Will find support soon.The GBPUSD pair couldn't have given us a better sell signal last time we looked into it (October 09, see chart below) as it broke first below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) then the Bullish Megaphone and is very close to our 1.2550 Target: We are approaching the stage where selling becomes far riskier than buying as the pair is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the September - October 2023 fractal (that has been the basis of our previous sell strategy), formed the bottom and initiated a Channel Up to the (orange) 0.618 Fib. Even the 1D MACD indicates that we are probably a few days before this bottom is formed and will be confirmed with a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are prepared to take this long and target 1.3100 (the 0.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
GBPUSD - Macro Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GBPUSD has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in green. Currently, GBPUSD is in a correction phase, trading within the falling red channel. Moreover, the 1.255 - 1.6 zone is a strong support 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower green trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As GBPUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
GU imminent buys to sell idea?My analysis for GBP/USD (GU) is still bearish at the moment, as the DXY (Dollar Index) has been very bullish. Additionally, GU has broken structure to the downside, and there's a clean supply zone that aligns with this bearish trend. However, as price is currently in my demand zone, I will be looking for confirmation to buy temporarily for a retracement. If price does not respect the 1-hour demand zone, I expect it to accumulate slowly, approaching the demand zone below. In that case, I’ll wait for the price to reach this lower zone before looking to buy. If this scenario doesn't play out, I will wait for the price to rally up and then look for short opportunities to sell again. Confluences for a GU Long: - The market has been very bearish, and a pullback is likely. - There is a lot of liquidity to the upside, including Asia session highs and trendline liquidity. - A clean demand zone lies below a liquidity level, offering potential buy opportunities. - The DXY has left imbalances below due to recent news, suggesting the dollar could decline temporarily. Note: If price rallies up and breaks the current high, I would expect an upward continuation, as there's significant liquidity being built up above for GBP/USD. Wishing you a successful trading week ahead!
Long
by Hassan_fx
Understanding GBPUSDToday we will be taking a closer look at understanding GBPUSD . GBP -no global business -risk currency -more linked to the UK economy, politics, central banking USD -global business currency -safe haven globally -Petrodollar UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENCY PAIR -we have to understand that within this pair “ GBPUSD ” one is a “ risk ” currency ( GBP ). ( USD ) is a “ safe haven currency ” and is also known as the world reserve currency. During times of economic uncertainty our doubt , or during any periods of times where we have more $ strength, which can be induced by the FED central banking, interest rate hikes and so forth, we will always have the $ dominate, even if the other currency can have some short term strength. THE USD IS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY What does this mean? -this means that the majority of INTERNATIONAL business is denominated in USD. We can see this very relevant when we are looking at the OIL industry and how oil is always exchanged in USD. Hence the name “PETRODOLLAR”.
Education
by FxPocket