GBPUSD GBP/USD: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, and Upcoming Monetary Policy News (June 2025)
1. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield:
As of June 24, 2025, the UK 10-year government bond yield is 4.51%, having recently climbed as high as 4.73%—the highest since April—driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data.
Markets have scaled back expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts due to persistent inflation, particularly in core and services sectors.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield:
The US 10-year Treasury yield ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%.
2. Central Bank Interest Rates
Bank of England (BoE) Rate:
The BoE held its policy rate steady at 4.25% at its June 19 meeting, with a 6–3 vote to maintain rates. Three members favored a 0.25% cut to 4.00%.
Inflation in the UK slowed to 3.4% in May (from 3.5% in April), but core and services inflation remain elevated, making policymakers cautious about cutting rates too soon.
US Federal Reserve Rate:
The Federal Reserve kept its key rate in a range of 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting and signaled the possibility of two rate cuts later this year, but with ongoing uncertainty about the timing.
3. Upcoming Monetary Policy News (Late June–July 2025)
Bank of England:
The BoE is expected to remain cautious, with markets now pricing in only 34 basis points of cuts for 2025 (down from earlier expectations of two cuts this year).
Economists expect a possible rate cut in August if inflation and wage growth show clearer signs of easing.
Federal Reserve:
The Fed continues to signal a data-dependent approach, with two cuts still possible in 2025 if inflation moderates and growth slows as projected.
Key Data to Watch:
UK: Flash PMIs (Thursday) for signs of economic momentum or weakness.
US: PCE inflation and labor market data for Fed policy clues.
Summary Table
Metric/News UK (GBP) US (USD)
10-Year Bond Yield 4.51% (recent high: 4.73%) 4.38%
Policy Interest Rate 4.25% 4.25%–4.50%
Next Central Bank Decision Possible cut in August Two cuts possible in 2025
Key Drivers Sticky core/services inflation Inflation, growth, Fed outlook
Key Takeaways
The UK 10-year gilt yield remains above the US 10-year yield, supporting GBP/USD in the near term.
The BoE is holding rates steady but may cut in August if inflation data softens further.
The Fed is also on hold, with possible cuts later in 2025, making upcoming inflation and labor data crucial for both currencies.
Both central banks are in a wait-and-see mode, with markets closely watching economic data and policy signals for direction.
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