Earn 18% While Waiting To Buy AMD At SupportHey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in AMD, the popular semiconductor company that often plays second fiddle to Nvidia (NVDA).
Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on AMD shares.
In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens.
Either;
A.) The stock price finishes above the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you make money.
B.) The stock price finishes below the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you will be forced to buy the stock at the strike price.
With the trades we publish, if the stock goes up, sideways, or down a bit, you'll make money. If the stock goes down a lot, then you'll be forced to buy shares.
In other words- either make money, or buy the dip!
The trick is finding the right stock at the right time.
Right now, AMD seems like a great candidate for this strategy.
Selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options yields more than 18% on an annualized basis, and 105 is a decent support zone, as you can see on the chart above. This is also a popular pivot area if you zoom out further:
The stock has also been in a bullish uptrend, and the recent, flat price action is a solid consolidation that should be perfect for selling puts:
But what about fundamentals? All of this means scant little if you're forced to buy a stock that will go down over the long term.
Fortunately, AMD is growing its top-line sales and bottom-line profits at a steady pace on the back of increased demand for semiconductors:
While the company is diluting shareholders somewhat, the valuation, at only 8x sales, seems reasonable when compared with peers and to the company's own multiple historically.
Plus, the trade has a 76% chance of earning max profit by expiry.
Overall, we think selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options is a great win-win trade for income-seeking traders.
Cheers!
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AMD trade ideas
AMD peak and valley vertical line time frame phase ideaI want to post a time frame analysis idea to get some constructive feedback, thoughts, and observations. Im new to trading, I'm on year two. I always look at the peaks and valleys of the market and think that buying 1-2 month options should be easily profitable. Im simply sticking vertical lines on the highs and lows and giving a general count of days between. THIS ONE IS DIFFICULT TO ENTER because AMD is in a choppy channel. A recent optimal entry was when it bounced off the 107 - 111 area. Will it retrace back off the immediate resistance to a better long entry? Or will it be off to the races, knowing AMD it is all possible?
AMD: advancing higher?An uptick in price above 114.00 is indicative of a potential bullish trend.
This trend direction is reinforced if the price breaks above the 121.00 threshold.
The target price is set at 129.00.
The stop-loss has been strategically set at 109.00 to manage the potential downside.
A volatility squeeze appears to be developing (see the lower panel).
Reward to risk 2.5 to 1.
AMD Still a buy as long as the 1D MA100 holds.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), still within the 10 month, maintaining its buy status. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be long and target the 165.00 All Time High (ATH). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will take the loss and open a sell, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 95.00, on a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) too, which is intact since March 02.
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Will $AMD gonna hit the trendline breakout? There are a few factors that could be contributing to the recent rise in AMD stock price. First, the company has been posting strong financial results. In its most recent earnings report, AMD reported revenue of $5.36 billion, which was up 62% year-over-year. The company also reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.57, which was well above analysts' expectations.
Second, AMD is benefiting from the strong demand for semiconductors. The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 10% in 2023, and AMD is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth. The company is a leading supplier of microprocessors for gaming consoles, personal computers, and servers.
Finally, AMD is also benefiting from the recent sell-off in tech stocks. As tech stocks have declined in recent months, AMD has become more attractive to investors. The stock is currently trading at a relatively low valuation, and it has the potential to rebound in the near future.
Overall, the outlook for AMD stock is positive. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the strong demand for semiconductors, and it is trading at a relatively low valuation. Investors who are looking for exposure to the semiconductor market may want to consider investing in AMD stock.
KalaGhazi | AMDThey reported a great quarter yesterday, so he expected share to rally $6 today, but because of the Fitch downgrade of the U.S. economy (sovereign debt) and the big sell-off, AMD was down $8 instead. Does this make sense?
AMDPrice consolidated since my last analysis. Right now, price is trapped between 2 POIs. My expectations remained unchanged, if price wants to continue higher, we should see price taking out the lows at 107.08 first. If price takes the external liquidity at 122.12 first, price could potentially continue lower. Right now, price created relatively equal lows at 107.08, so this could potentially get taken out first.
Beautiful bullish set upPrice target $160+
I am very bullish on microchips and AMD in general. There is still a huge shortage in supply. I also hope general market behavior will be bullish.
It can be very nice play. I would get out of AMD only if the whole market change direction to downtrend.
Not financial advice.
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day.
There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?"
Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head.
If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now.
If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden.
AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while.
You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order.
All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future.
Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back.
So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities.
So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things:
1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point
2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down.
On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings.
There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings.
Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot.
Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135.
While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD.
Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money.
Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year.
Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
AMD upside met. Now looking for $110-11This is pretty cool that I'm getting some consistency with the numbers on AMD. Typically, when a number is hit, (which had been 118 on my prior idea) we get a decent reversal.
My dowsing is suggesting a "breakdown". Like, it's given me that option every time I ask (3xs). Now, time frame can be an issue, but I do expect indexes to give it up after earnings later or the week, so AMD could have some decent downside.
I do get a potential for $107, but it might not be this week. $110 seems likely though.
Descending TriangleI could have sworn this was up at earnings on Tuesday afternoon or after hours yesterday. Now it is down.
Price hit the top line of this triangle which is a diagonal resistance level.
Descending triangles are neutral until broken. Top line slopes down (resistance) and the bottom line is virtually flat (support).
No recommendation.
One measure of intelligence is the ability to change.
AMD Share Price on the Rise After Financial Statement ReleasePositivity:
→ Advanced Micro Devices EPS of USD 58 cents (Wall Street Consensus = 57 cents);
→ Q2 revenue of USD 5.36 billion (Analysts expectation = USD 5.3 billion).
Negativity:
→ revenue from data centers decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year;
→ PC revenue fell 54% year-over-year: the pandemic is fading.
Particular attention of investors was attracted by the words of CEO Lisa Su regarding AI. According to her, by 2027 the market for artificial intelligence processors in data centers will exceed USD 150 billion. She also noted that in Q2, the company's AI business grew 7 times.
AMD's share price jumped up +3% after the report, which was published after the end of the main trading session. At the same time, the AMD stock chart shows mixed signals.
Bullish technical analysis arguments for AMD stock:
→ AMD share price continues to rise within the rising channel in 2023, acting significantly stronger than the S&P 500 stock market index;
→ AMD's USD 110 support level, originating from the May bullish gap, has confirmed its strength.
Bearish arguments:
→ After a jump related to reporting, the price decreases in the premarket. A long upper shadow is a sign that the first positive emotional reaction could be wrong;
→ AMD's share price is experiencing resistance near the USD 122 level, which originates from the low of the bear bar on June 13 (the day the NASDAQ exchange recorded the largest trading volumes for the spring-summer, which indicates selling pressure).
According to MarketWatch, the average target price for AMD shares is USD 137.50 — analysts are positive about the prospects, seeing the renewal of the historical maximum.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMD Earnings tomorrow AHearnings coming up tomorrow AH. It has been slowly creating a bull flag pattern. Leaning bulllish but earnings will determine that. Currently trading above its Daily 21 MA. I would like to see it pull back to around $113.75 or the 21MA before continuing up heading towards its earnings.
AMD AnalysisPrice consolidated since my last analysis. Right now, price is trapped between 2 POIs. My expectations remained unchanged, if price wants to continue higher, we should see price taking out the lows at 107.08 first. If price takes the external liquidity at 122.12 first, price could potentially continue lower.
AmdAmd 113-116 (To 125) We expect it to continue falling to the specified areas, then to complete the ascending stage to the 125 area
AMD next stop $118Since it's been working well, I asked and get that AMD is going to $118. Last week I had the $114, but it came short. It hit today so there could be a little dip into $112.60ish. I do dowsing, btw, so all this is from my pendulum that is liking AMD lately.
Bull Put Spread 108/106 8/18 Exp.Selling the 108/106 Bull Put gives you a 69% of Break Even at Exp with 48% return vs Risk.
Nice Double Bottom Support above the Spread.
AMD Earnings Bullish 31st July2023Make sure to understand the trade & then make your decisions. AMD looks bullish to me. Ultimately AMD should go to $140
NOTE: DO NOT TRADE OPTIONS
AMD breakout expected|31st July 2023Price has come down without touching any supplies. Price has also narrowed so much and price is initially from HTF DZ.
AMD Long will Go to 260$ or higher
New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case).
Bullish:
higher highs higher lows
poc uprising
volume increasing
capital flow rising
In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend.
I will only take profit 10% of the AMD portfolio and let the profit run.
Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal
The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run.
This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
AMD Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst's Cyclic AnalysisOverview: in the previous update of AMD I published on July 9th, I had AMD in wave (IV) of A, expected AMD to bottom on July 19th at 105, then continuation to the upside.
Update: the 40W cycle trough is in. This means I am extremely bullish on this name. Let's go through the details:
Analysis of the structure: AMD is definitely not easy to count. Not only because of my observations on the cyclic analysis of AMD, but also the structure is very bullish. I think we are in wave (3) of C of (III) of (a) of III.
Analysis of the cycles: I have enough confirmations to assume that the 40W cycle trough is in. This means we are in the second 40W cycle of the first 80W cycle of a 54M cycle.
