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MICROSOFT On 4th largest correction in 15 years. Buy or trap?Microsoft (MSFT) has corrected by -26.50% from its All Time High (ATH), representing the 4th biggest correction since June 2010, which was the first pull-ack after the historic 2008 Housing Crisis. At the same time the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold limit for the first time since that low of June 2010! Not even the Housing bottom didn't exhibit such low 1W RSI. All while the current Tariff War correction stopped a little before testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the long-term Support since 2011 and was last hit (for the 2nd time during that time span) in December 2022 during the previous Inflation Crisis. As a result, this is a unique long-term buy opportunity for such a tech giant. The 2010 rebound hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level before pulling back while the rally that was initiated after the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom reached +117.45%. Based on the above, we have a medium-term Target on MSFT at $440 (Fib 0.786) and a long-term at $700 (+100%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NLong
by TradingShot
MSFT at a Key Inflection Point! Will This Breakout Hold?Technical Analysis (1H): * Trend Structure: MSFT is trading within a clean ascending channel. Price is currently hugging the upper trendline resistance, with higher lows confirming strong intraday buyer interest. * Volume: Buying volume picked up significantly during the breakout on April 10 and has since stabilized as price consolidates near resistance — a healthy sign of continuation if bulls hold. * RSI: RSI is trending above the midpoint and gradually rising, but not overbought — signaling room to move higher without immediate exhaustion. * Key Resistance: * 392.92 — Local high. If broken, potential to run toward 400 and 405. * Gamma Wall sits at 405, which aligns with highest positive NETGEX and may act as a magnet for price. * Support: * 377.50 — Nearest support from HVL (High Volume Level) and Gamma Support. * 367.80 / 348.29 — Stronger downside zones if price fails the channel. GEX & Options Flow Insights: * GEX Walls: * 405 = Highest Positive NETGEX / Gamma Wall. * Multiple call walls layered at 400, 405, and 410 — creating a strong bullish magnet above. * Put walls concentrated below 377.5, but gamma intensity is lower until 355. * Options Oscillator: * IVR: 64.8 — moderately elevated. * IVx avg: 46 — showing increasing volatility expectations. * Put Positioning: 44.9% — almost evenly balanced with calls, slight lean toward downside hedging. * GEX Sentiment: 🟡🔴🟢 — Mixed, but still slightly favorable for upside as long as 377.5 holds. Trade Scenarios: 📈 Bullish Setup: * Entry: Break above 393–395 with strong volume. * Target: 400 → 405 (gamma magnet zone). * Stop: Below 386 (channel midline break). 📉 Bearish Setup: * Entry: Breakdown below 377.5 support. * Target: 367.8 → 348.2 * Stop: Above 386 to avoid getting trapped by a bounce. Option Trade Suggestion: * Directional Call Debit Spread (Apr 17 expiry): * Buy 395c / Sell 405c * Risk-defined setup aligned with gamma wall targets. * If bearish: Consider 375p / 360p put spread if MSFT rejects 393 and breaks below 377.5. Final Thoughts: MSFT is sitting on a powder keg of potential. Price is coiled under a resistance zone where gamma exposure aligns with bullish targets. If macro sentiment aligns, the breakout toward 400–405 could trigger a short-term momentum rally. But failure to hold the channel would mean a quick retest of 377–367 range. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
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by BullBearInsights
$MSFT Potential Bull wave targeting 428 SL at 370Bullish daily candlesticks , RSI breakout and back tested, but there are strong resistance at 393-396 , if breakout then it will target the upper gap and fib golden at 428 but there are real overhead resistances. Above 396 , minor targets at 408 and 416 .The latest news of tariffs exemptions may push it higher but needs carful risk management. NASDAQ:MSFT Earning report by 30th April . i would like to to take 395 Call expiry before earning but with protection Put or some type of hedge. Good luck . please boost and share. Gracias
NLong
by WinnerTrader99
Margin Meltdown & the Golden Surge: How Tech Cracks Fueled Gold?Margin Meltdown & the Golden Surge: How Tech Cracks Fueled Gold’s Breakout in April 2025 Fear-Driven Flight to Gold is Real If margin calls continue and top stocks like Microsoft and NVIDIA keep showing weakness: • Expect more bond market stress • A persistently weak dollar • And a sustained gold rally Gold is the cleanest beneficiary of the current chaos. Every chart, every data point, every political move validates it. ////////=====//////// What’s Happening in the Stock Market and Trump’s Tariffs – Simple Summary (Updated & Validated) 1. Margin Loans: Many investors borrowed money using their stock portfolios as collateral. For example, if someone owns $100,000 in Microsoft stock (now trading at $388.45), they could borrow up to 90% of that value — $90,000 — and use it to buy other stocks like NVIDIA ($110.93). 2. Margin Calls: When the market fell earlier this month, Microsoft and NVIDIA dropped sharply. Brokers issued margin calls, forcing investors to either deposit more funds or sell off assets to cover their positions. 3. Forced Selling: As stocks fell further, more investors were forced to liquidate. This increased selling pressure pushed prices down even harder. 4. Vicious Cycle: The deeper the drop, the more margin calls got triggered, which led to even more forced sales — a self-perpetuating loop of destruction. 5. Bond Selling Instead of Stocks: Some investors didn’t want to sell their stock positions and instead began selling bonds to raise cash — including even U.S. Treasuries. 6. Bond Market Shock: This rare, broad-scale bond selloff shook up the entire fixed-income market — everything from corporate to government bonds dumped. 7. Rising Yields: As bond prices fell, yields spiked. But this wasn’t due to strong growth — it was pure fear-driven liquidation. 8. Unexpected Dollar Weakness: Usually, during times of crisis, the dollar strengthens. But not this time. The U.S. dollar fell, while currencies like the euro and Swiss franc gained. The Chinese yuan stayed weak under its own pressures. 9. Trump’s Reaction: In response to the chaos, Trump’s administration paused tariffs for 90 days — a political move under pressure. But the damage to market psychology was already done. 10. Tax-Loss Harvesting by Smart Investors: During the crash, savvy investors sold declining stocks like Microsoft to lock in tax deductions, then bought similar alternatives like NVIDIA to stay in the market while writing off losses. Impact on Gold (XAU/USD) – Real-Time Validation As of April 12, 2025, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at: $3,235.91 (+$60.13 for the day | +12.02% over the past month) Let’s validate the theory with what actually happened: 1. Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds: While Microsoft and NVIDIA were collapsing earlier this month, gold surged. This shift confirms a flight to safety — gold became the preferred hedge during equity and bond volatility. 2. Falling Dollar = Bullish for Gold: With the dollar under pressure, gold became cheaper in foreign currencies — driving international demand and pushing prices even higher. 3. Rising Yields – But Driven by Panic: Normally, higher yields compete with gold. But this time, yields rose because bonds were being dumped, not because of economic strength. That fear drove even more capital into gold. 4. Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s late response and inconsistent trade policies fueled further market unease. That pushed more investors toward gold as a non-political store of value. 5. Liquidity Crunch Risk: Some gold may have been sold during the panic to raise quick cash, but overall, the trend shows that gold held firm and then broke out even harder — a textbook crisis hedge move. Real Example: Microsoft and NVIDIA Margin Trap Let’s walk through the actual setup: • An investor owns $100,000 in Microsoft (MSFT at $388.45). • They take a $90,000 margin loan to buy NVIDIA (NVDA at $110.93). • Early April: • MSFT dropped below $320. • NVDA fell under $100. This triggers: • Margin calls. • Forced selling of both positions. • Possibly even bond liquidation. • And systemic panic across portfolios. Result? • Tech sold off. • Bonds dropped. • Yields rose. • Dollar weakened. • Gold exploded. ///////======////// Impact on Gold (XAU/USD): Real Events, Real Movement • Microsoft & NVIDIA Down: Confirmed panic in tech. • Bond Selloff = Higher Yields: But from fear, not confidence. • Weaker Dollar: Confirmed. • Gold Breakout: Real. • RSI above 70 • ADX shows trend strength • Volume surging • Price broke $3,200 and held Gold moved exactly how a textbook safe haven asset should behave in this //////======/////// XAUUSD market behavior and trader mindset: 1. Monday: Continuation After Breakout (Euphoria Phase) Psychological Insight: Traders and institutions are chasing momentum. After a clean breakout, FOMO kicks in, especially for those who missed the first leg. They buy pullbacks aggressively, creating a bullish Monday. Projection: Bullish continuation Range: 3,230 – 3,270 Bias: Buy dips Reason: Momentum from last week’s breakout still pushing higher. RSI >70 but not topping, and no reversal pattern on daily chart. Weak USD persists. 2. Tuesday: Pullback from Overextension (Reality Check) Psychological Insight: Once price pushes too far, short-term traders start locking profits. This creates a dip. But smart money (institutions) sees the pullback as cheap entry — especially with no bearish reversal confirmation. This is textbook reaccumulation psychology. Projection: Intraday pullback, then bounce Range: 3,250 – 3,280 Bias: Buy on VWAP pullback Reason: Small retracement likely due to overextension. Support at VWAP (~3,219). Bullish engulfing pattern might trigger dip-buyers. 3. Wednesday: Retest / Breakout (Conviction Phase) Psychological Insight: After a healthy pullback and hold, traders regain confidence in the trend. Breakout traders load in here — and weak shorts get squeezed. This is where bullish conviction peaks, triggering high-volume moves. Projection: Breakout attempt Range: 3,265 – 3,310 Bias: Scalpers can long breakout Reason: If momentum holds, this is likely the day gold retests highs and pushes through short-term resistance (~3,300 psychological + fib extension zone). 4. Thursday: Sideways Chop (Indecision / Distribution) Psychological Insight: Market participants are split. Some want to hold into the weekend; others fear a Friday sell-off. You see hesitation, tighter ranges, and volume drop-off — classic signs of short-term indecision and distribution by early buyers. Projection: Consolidation / Sideways Range: 3,280 – 3,310 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish Reason: After a breakout, price typically stalls for distribution/re-accumulation. Expect reduced volatility unless triggered by macro news (watch bond yields). 5. Friday: Final Move (Greed vs. Fear Showdown) Psychological Insight: End-of-week decisions are all about book-squaring. If the week was strong and the narrative holds, we get greedy breakouts into the weekend. If uncertainty creeps in (e.g. Fed noise, geopolitical tension), profit-taking overrides conviction, leading to a dip. Projection: Second leg breakout or profit-taking Range: 3,270 – 3,330 Bias: Depends on Thursday’s behavior Scenario 1: If Thursday consolidates tightly, breakout possible. Scenario 2: If extended already, profit-taking dip possible into close. /////=====///// Weekly Summary: • High probability: Gold hits $3,300 – $3,330 this week • Support zones: $3,219 (VWAP), $3,175 (previous breakout zone) • Resistance zones: $3,298 (fib cluster), $3,330 (round number magnet) This projection isn’t just TA — it’s behavioral trading at its core, based on how traders actually react: • FOMO, • profit-protection, • fear of reversal, • and end-of-week positioning. Every day’s move is driven by human emotion wrapped around market structure.
NLong
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
1
Microsoft's Downtrend Poised for Deeper RetracementsMSFT 4D TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 📉 OVERALL TREND 📉 DOWNTREND — Confirmed by the descending pivot structure, cluster of recent lower highs, and bearish rejection from the 430–455 zone. The downtrend is confirmed with a moderately confident score of 23.8%, with a Trend Score of -0.50. 🔴RESISTANCE ZONE 🔴 468.3500 — SELL STOPLOSS | PIVOT HIGH 🔴 455.7494 — SELL ORDER 2 🔴 430.2472 — SELL ORDER 1 🎯ENTRIES & TARGETS 🎯 381.6944 — SELL ORDER & | TP 1 🎯 340.8905 — SELL ORDER & | TP 2 | MID-PIVOT 🎯 310.8399 — SELL ORDER & TP 3 🎯 264.4180 — EXIT SELL & TP 4 🟢SUPPORT ZONE 🟢 253.2621 — BUY ORDER 1 🟢 226.1769 — BUY ORDER 2 🟢 213.4130 — BUY STOPLOSS | PIVOT LOW ✍️STRUCTURAL NOTES Major lower high rejection seen near 455–468 zone—clearly defined by the last bullish failure to break above Recent candles show moderate bullish defense near 380, but unable to create a higher high All key short-term MAs (10–50) are bearish, with crossover confirmation stacking downward Longer-term moving averages (100–200) show mixed signals; short-term selling strength remains dominant Oscillators show mixed-to-weak bearish signals, with MACD and Awesome Oscillator suggesting negative momentum 📉TRADE OUTLOOK 📉 Bearish Continuation Bias with potential downside continuation toward TP3 @ 310.84 and TP4 @ 264.41 📈 Temporary bounce possible at 381.69–340.89 range, but expected to be corrective unless higher highs are confirmed 🔍 Watch for retest and rejection at 430.24 or 455.74 zones to validate reentry setups on the short side 🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Trend-Following): — Entry: 381.69 (on rejection confirmation) — TP: 340.89 / 310.84 / 264.41 — SL: Above 430.25 AGGRESSIVE REVERSAL PLAY: — Entry: 253.26 (Buy Order) — TP: 310.84 / 340.89 — SL: Below 213.41 “Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
NShort
by ProfessorCEWard
MSFT at a Decision Zone – Bulls Trying to Take Control!Options GEX Outlook (04/22/2025): * Current Price: $373 * IVR/IVX: 55.6 / 39.4 * Options Sentiment: PUTs 19.4% (moderately bearish but not extreme) * GEX Walls: * Support (PUT Wall): $352.50 (Highest negative NETGEX) * Resistance (CALL Wall): $380 (69.1% GEX) – this is the most meaningful upside wall * Implication: MSFT is hovering just under a high-interest gamma zone at $377.5–380. Option sellers may defend this area, making it sticky and resistant. However, if bulls can break and hold above $380, gamma flip pressure could fuel continuation toward $390. Technical Analysis + Scalping Bias (1H + SMC Co-Pilot): * HTF SMC Bias (15min): Bullish structure forming, but not fully aligned. * Trend Strength: Weak to Mixed — price is reacting, but structure lacks full confluence. * Market Structure: No clear BOS or CHoCH yet, indicating the need for a clean break before committing. * Volume: Strong Momentum Spike (1.25x) supporting this bounce. * RSI, MACD, BBP: All Bullish, indicating price strength, but no defined setup yet. * EMA/VWAP Reaction Zone: Currently testing EMA9 and watching for confirmation. * Strength Meter: ⚠️ Mixed bias — 2/5 score. Trade Thoughts: * Above 374–377.5: This is the short-term battleground. If MSFT can hold this area with volume support, it may move toward the 380–385 gamma wall. * Below 367.5: Breakdown of this level would invalidate bullish bias and shift momentum back toward 360–355. * No Clear Trade Yet: You're in a zone of indecision. Scalpers should wait for CHoCH + BOS or break of EMA support to lean into a direction. Action Plan: * ⚠️ Stay Patient — Wait for a clean structure shift (BOS/CHoCH) above 377.5. * ✅ Watch Volume — Sustained volume could confirm a breakout. * 🔁 Key Levels to Monitor: 367.5 (support), 377.5–380 (gamma wall resistance) Conclusion:
MSFT is testing resistance near key option gamma walls. Structure is building, but lacks confirmation for a clean entry. If it clears 380 with volume and structure support, the breakout could get legs. For now, manage risk and wait for confirmation. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
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by BullBearInsights
Microsoft Wave Analysis – 18 April 2025 - Microsoft falling inside impulse wave 5 - Likely to test support level 360.00 Microsoft continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 5, which started recently from the key resistance level 392.50 (which also reversed the price at the end of March) standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January. Impulse wave 5 is a part of the strong multi-month downward impulse sequence (C) from last December. Given the clear daily downtrend, Microsoft can be expected to fall to the next support level 360.00, which reversed the price at the start of April.
NShort
by FxProGlobal
MSFT GEX Breakdown: Heavy PUT Signals Danger Below 380!🔮 Options GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights – MSFT: 🟥 PUT Domination Increasing * Highest negative GEX sits around 380–375, making this a critical gamma support zone where dealers are heavily hedged long gamma. * If MSFT breaks below 380, expect amplified sell pressure as dealers adjust hedges, possibly triggering a quick flush to 360, where another GEX wall sits. 🟩 CALL Walls Stack at Resistance * CALL Walls are stacked between 395, 397.5, and 400, forming a firm gamma ceiling. * The highest positive net GEX resides near 395–400, making upward movement difficult unless IV spikes and hedging flips. 📉 GEX Sentiment Summary: * IVR: 50.3 → Volatility expectations remain moderate. * IVx: 35.3, trending –7.75% lower, suggests option pricing is cooling — but this can rapidly reverse if support fails. * PUTs dominate at 35.8%, implying dealers are short gamma and could accelerate moves if price breaks either direction — especially down. 🎯 GEX Game Plan: * Below 380: Watch for a sharp selloff toward 375, then 360 if flow intensifies. * Above 390: Limited upside until 395–400 clears — CALL resistance is thick, expect rejection unless news or volume surge. 🕰️ Technical Analysis – 1H Chart (Supports the GEX View) * Trendline Breakdown: Price has slipped below a rising wedge, and EMAs are flattening out — bearish. * VWAP Rejection: Price is struggling under VWAP, showing institutional sell pressure. * MACD: Flat but negative, trending under zero — no momentum shift yet. * RSI: Below 45 and falling — still no divergence or strength building. Support/Resistance Key Levels: * Support: 380 (first GEX wall), 375 (heavy PUT support), then 360 (final wall). * Resistance: 390 (VWAP area), 395–400 (dense CALL walls). 🧠 Final Thoughts: MSFT is coiling near a high-risk gamma zone. With dealers holding heavy short gamma below 380 and no clear bullish reclaim on the chart, downside remains open. Bulls need to reclaim 390+ fast — or risk a gamma-led liquidation flush to 375 or lower. This is a GEX-driven chart — the technicals merely confirm what options flow already warns: the path of least resistance is likely down, unless a surprise reversal ignites above 390. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk and confirm setups with price action.
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by BullBearInsights
Elliott Wave Analysis Signals Gains in Microsoft (MSFT)The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Microsoft (MSFT) paints a bullish picture, suggesting the stock has room to climb after a key low at $338 on April 7, 2025. This level marked the end of a corrective phase, known as wave (II), following a decline that began on July 5, 2024. That selloff unfolded in a three-wave pattern, a hallmark of a correction rather than a bearish trend. Notably, the final leg of this decline, starting from the December 12, 2024 high, didn’t reach a typical Fibonacci extension (1.618), reinforcing the idea that the market remains bullish on Microsoft. Since hitting the $338 low, Microsoft has rallied in a five-swing pattern, a structure called a motive sequence, signaling potential for further gains. The rally’s first leg, wave (1), peaked at $373.65, followed by a dip to $346.75 in wave (2). The stock then surged to $393.23 in wave (3), with a brief pullback to $367.80 in wave (4). Now, Microsoft is likely nearing the end of wave (5), completing a larger wave ((1)). Looking ahead, a wave ((2)) pullback is expected to correct the rally from April 7, but as long as the $338 low holds, any dips should find support in a three-, seven-, or eleven-swing pattern, setting the stage for more upside. This suggests short-term pauses but a continued upward trend for Microsoft, making it a stock to watch for bullish opportunities.
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by Elliottwave-Forecast
Microsoft MSFT - What`s next?I mentioned a month ago this is a short for me, well dynamics changed in a very quick way, yes went went to a recession before tarrifs were done. But with the tarrfis the dynamics changed quickly. If tarrifs are resolved a huge uptrend is possible, if not resolved then it is not clear what the market will do so what`s the answer where we are going? At the moment NOWHERE. No hedgefunds are shorting at the moment due to high risk of liquidation if Trump posts something new, but also nobody wants to buy at this moment a lot because if he continues after the 90 days (except china) the gloabal tarrifs market drop is possible. But important to say there is much less risk on the downside than on the upside at this moment. Biggest risk was that europe punishes the American IT industry which would hit MSFT and AAPL the hardest, but this risk is now very low. So at this moment. Nobody wants to buy and nobody wants to sell until time comes and if nothing important happens I do think only then we will see what will happen. Slightly more bullish than bearish atm but only minimal. No data, no trade.
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by bullishnr1
Microsoft Regains Top Spot as Most Valuable Company Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) has reclaimed its place as the world’s most valuable public company. The tech giant now holds a market capitalization of $2.64 trillion, surpassing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ), which fell to $2.59 trillion. Apple’s sharp decline followed a major 23% sell-off over four days. This came after President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs. These tariffs hit countries like China, India, Vietnam, and Brazil. Apple’s heavy reliance on these regions for manufacturing intensified investor concerns. Meanwhile, Microsoft appears less exposed to tariff risks. Analysts say the company remains a stable large-cap stock during ongoing market volatility. Microsoft previously held the top spot briefly last year but was overtaken by Apple and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ), now ranked third at $2.35 trillion. Technical Analysis Microsoft’s stock is trading at $383.15, up 8.06%, with a high of $387.07 so far today. The price rebounded sharply from the support level near $345. This zone had previously acted as resistance in late 2021 and early 2022. It now serves as strong support. The volume spike confirms buyer interest at this level. The projected path shows a potential bounce toward $468, the recent high. If the trend holds, Microsoft may attempt a new all-time high.
NLong
by DEXWireNews
Consider Long Position on MSFT Amid Strategic Partnerships - KeyMicrosoft's resilience in the tech sector is supported by strong liquidity and quality. Strategic partnerships in data centers, like its link with AMD, enhance its stability against market downturns. Watching reversal signals is crucial for identifying recovery phases. - Price Targets: For a long position, consider Target 1 (T1) at $368 and Target 2 (T2) at $370. Use Stop Levels at $325 (S1) and $310 (S2) to manage risk and define exposure. - Recent Performance: Microsoft has been affected by a downturn, similar to other tech firms, though it remains relatively stable given its strategic positioning and strong market presence. - Expert Analysis: Analysts observe potential reversal signals, pegging Microsoft's strength on partnerships and its role within the tech ecosystem. This could cushion the company amidst broader market challenges and provide potential recovery. - News Impact: Geopolitical developments have temporarily affected MSFT due to tariff-related fears. However, sentiment around Microsoft's 50th anniversary might spur speculative interest, adding nuanced layers to investor sentiment this week.
NLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
MSFT Teetering at Breakdown! Options Say THIS Might Be Next🔥 MSFT Teetering at Breakdown! Options Say THIS Might Be Next 👀 Post-crash volatility could offer traders a pivotal edge. Let’s dig in. 🔍 Technical Analysis (SMC & Price Action) – 1H Chart MSFT is trading inside a clear descending channel and just printed a Break of Structure (BOS) below 367.22, confirming bearish dominance. A supply zone sits between 367 and 385, where prior price rejections occurred. Immediate support is now around the 355–359 area, aligned with the lower channel and prior BOS zone. MACD remains bearish, with no bullish crossover in sight.
Stoch RSI is deep in oversold territory, beginning to hook upward — this suggests a possible relief bounce or minor consolidation incoming. 📊 Options Sentiment (GEX, IVR, Oscillator) * The highest negative NET GEX sits at 365, acting as strong PUT support and a short-term magnet. * Below that, heavy PUT Walls stack up at 355, 350, and 340 — setting up a staircase for potential bearish continuation if bulls fail to hold 359. * CALL resistance walls lie at 380, 400, and 405 — difficult levels for any rally to reclaim without a sentiment shift. * Gamma exposure (GEX) remains solidly red, reflecting strong dealer hedging activity to the downside. * IVR is elevated at 138.2, with IVx at 58.3. * Options flow is bearish with only 14.7% CALLS — confirming traders are not bidding up upside bets this week. 🧠 Market Thoughts & Outlook MSFT, like much of tech, is absorbing post-crash stress from Trump tariff news. Institutions are defensively positioned. Options data suggests strong gamma pressure and dealer hedging — a sign that bounces may be sold into. Unless the macro narrative improves, MSFT is at risk of further drawdowns. 📉 Trade Scenarios Bearish Setup (Primary Bias):
Entry around 359–360 if price gets rejected at this zone.
Targets are 355 → 350 → 340.
Stop above 365 (which is also where the highest negative NET GEX sits). Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability):
If MSFT reclaims 367 with strength, look for moves toward 380 and possibly 385.
This would need strong volume and macro improvement. ⚠️ Investor Suggestion For long-term investors, this may be a watchlist zone, not a buy zone — yet. Wait for bullish divergence in MACD/Stoch RSI, reclaim of 367, or an improvement in the options positioning and news sentiment. Key Levels to Watch: * Immediate support: 355–359 * Key resistance: 367 and 380 * Breakdown targets: 350 and 340 * Gamma wall: 365 (Put Support), 405 (Call Resistance) 🧭 Final Thoughts MSFT is teetering at a major level. The market is not showing confidence yet, and options sentiment suggests downside still has fuel. Trade reactively, not emotionally — and size down in volatility. 🔻 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
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by BullBearInsights
MSFT Under Pressure: Will Gamma Support at $370 Hold? 🧠 Market Context: Following the Trump tariff announcement, risk-off sentiment is dominating tech. MSFT, while usually defensive within mega-cap tech, has cracked below its short-term HVL and is now testing a key gamma pivot zone at $370, right where the PUT Support is clustered. 📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) Structure: * Price has formed a lower high and broke down from the $377.50 HVL area. * Multiple rejections near $387–390, which aligns with GEX call resistance. * It's now hugging $370, a key support level that could turn into a breakdown zone if breached. Levels: * Support: * 🔹 $370 = PUT Support (Gamma Cluster) * 🔹 $367.24 = recent low * 🔹 Below $367, air pocket to $360 zone * Resistance: * 🔺 $375 = minor supply & failed bounce spot * 🔺 $377.50 = HVL * 🔺 $385–390 = heavy call resistance Indicators: * Elevated selling volume on each lower high suggests distribution. * If $370 fails to hold, expect continuation toward $367 and possibly $360. 🔥 GEX & Options Flow Analysis GEX Map: * GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 → Dealers short gamma below $375 * Put Support: * $370 = Highest Gamma PUT Support * $367.24 = Real market low from March 28–29 selloff * Call Walls: * $385–390 = Dealer sell zone * $392 = Gamma ceiling * $396 = Major rejection level from recent highs Options Oscillator: * IVR 71.2 → Traders are buying volatility, indicating fear. * IVx avg 32.3 vs IVx 3.32% → Still rising vol, near-term bearish bias * PUT$ 10% → Surprisingly low, but this could reflect late hedging, not bullishness. 🧭 Trade Scenarios 🐻 Bearish Breakdown: * Entry: Break and close below $370 * Target: $367 → $360 * Stop: $374 (tight risk control) * Confirmation: Watch SPY and QQQ breakdowns in sync. 🐂 Bullish Gamma Bounce: * Entry: Hold above $370 + reclaim $375 * Target: $385 → $390 (scalp target) * Stop: Close under $369 🧠 Summary: MSFT is hanging by a thread — the $370 zone is the battle line. GEX shows it as a PUT-heavy support, but with dealers short gamma, any break could cascade into forced sell hedging. A bounce could trigger a dead cat rally toward $385, but bulls will need to reclaim $377.50 to make that happen. ⚔️ Trade Idea: Buy $365P (1-week expiry) if $370 breaks with volume
Buy $385C only on confirmed reclaim of $377.50 + strength in QQQ This is a dealer-controlled zone, so price will likely whip around until gamma flips. Disclaimer: This breakdown is for educational purposes only. Always trade with proper risk management and do your own research.
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by BullBearInsights
MSFT Looking at a possible bottoming outNASDAQ:MSFT is looking at a potential bottoming out after the Microsoft has formed a bullish morning star pattern above 123.6% Fibonacci extension level of 383.73-455.48 range. Furthermore, the strong bullish bar was seen closing above the gap and the previous resistance turned support low of 377.16. Ichimoku has yet to show a clear bullish trend but the slight closure above the 9-period conversion line may see a strong signal. MACD is still bearish over the longer-term period Mid-term Stochastic showing oversold crossover signal 23-period ROC is showing a bullish divergence Volume remain healthy. Wyckoff analysis - Larger range from 8 Jul 2024 (Buying climax) is looking at a distribution. Hence, current rebound is likely to be in a sign of weakness phase. Recommend to buy swing in 1-week to a month.
NLong
by William-trading