FL Hedged Options StrategyEveryone knows Foot Locker. While athletic footwear sales were down during the pandemic, they're back with a vengeance as work-from-home and the athleisure aesthetic have only grown in popularity (estimated to be a $77 billion business by 2025.) To consumers, sneakers hit many of these elements: practical necessity, recreation and exercise, personal style, luxury fashion, status symbol, political statement. "Sneakerheads" will wait hours in line for new shoe releases and Foot Locker is positioned as the top destination for launch parties. It also partners with official sports teams to sell licensed merchandise, and recently acquired Tokyo-based specialty footwear store Atmos as well as Warehouse Shoes (WSS). New CEO Mary Dillon has also promised to help the company grow its e-commerce division, something she did for Ulta quite successfully.
Technically, it looks like a rising wedge is forming... but how can investors be certain share prices will fall with so much talk of a Santa Claus rally into the holiday season and stocks rising from the Fed's confirmation of a gentler rate hike this week?
Here's an example of a hedged options strategy that can make up to 17% -- capped at slightly above the top of the rising wedge. In exchange, it allows FL room to fall up to 38% before losing any of the investment.
Buy 1 $35 call
Sell 1 $42.5 call
Sell 2 $22.5 puts
Exp 1/19/24
Capital requirement: $4473
WOO trade ideas
Footlocker - Stomping lower?Foot Locker - Medium Term - We look to Sell at 38.81 (stop at 40.86)
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (30.02 - 40.00) although we expect a break of this range soon. Short term momentum is bearish. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 30.34 and 24.10
Resistance: 38.81 / 40.20 / 45.59
Support: 37.88 / 33.19 / 30.02
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
FL - Gap ShortFL has had an enormous earnings pop completely against the market on a very bearish day to end the week.
It has tagged 0.5 fib retracement which is also an area of key resistance.
RSI is the highest since 2018.
But what is really attractive is the enormous double gap both down and up.
And considering I am confident indexes are now bearish in the mid term, this looks like a great short.
Indexes are still potentially in distribution I think and so they may open bullish which would perhaps provide a good entry.
Not advice.
FL: Correction due?Foot Locker
Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 37.95 (stop at 42.06)
This stock has recently been in the news headlines. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. A break of 38.00 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Further downside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 28.32 and 24.00
Resistance: 42.00 / 48.00 / 58.00
Support: 28.00 / 24.00 / 18.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Can Foot Locker Fill the Gap?Last week had a couple of days that will live in infamy for retailers like Walmart , Target and Ross Stores. But not Foot Locker.
The shoe retailer managed to beat earnings forecasts despite revenue missing. That suggests margins were strong and management handled inflationary pressures better than larger peers.
Prices briefly jumped above $32.50 after the report but soon retreated. That level is potentially important because it’s near the high following the sharp drop on February 25. Can prices now fill the gap to the upside?
Second, notice how FL is now trying to hold support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Third, a trendline along the recent highs could now be turning from resistance to support.
Fourth, the lows of February and May represented successful tests of the longer-term low of $26.58 from August 2020.
Finally, FL trades for less than 10 times earnings. That could make it potentially attractive to value investors.
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Foot Locker USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Foot Locker USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
FL 15 min breakdonwFL 15 min breakdown after missed earnings Shorting into the 2/5/15 min opening range break using the high of the breakdown candle pivot to manage risk against
Can also manage risk against high of day Stock must be breaking the range down on increased RVOL with the negative catalyst
The increased volume on the range when it is breaking down and expaninding in the desired direction is the cause that helps create the effect we are looking for in this play.
(In this case, guidance was lowered, and stock broke the down range on increased volume cause = effect )
Want to see sellars agressivly selling the stock at vwap
Earnings watch 2/25 pre-marketEarnings watch 2/25 pre-market:
FL
EOG
LI
NOG
MGI
OCGN
DSX
VST
TREE
IEP
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
Lock it in, Foot Locker. FLBullish outlook for gains at 44.10, then 46.62 and 48.92. Invalidation at 36.19.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Foot locker is undervalued with growth potential Key takeaways:
- Undervalued at the moment.
- Analysts growth estimates at 39% over the next 5 years.
- Aggressive share buy back by the company over the last 5 years. According to Gurufocus, FL's 3 year share buyback ratio is higher than 98% of companies in the retail/cyclical industry.
- Dividend stock. (I am not dividend focused, as I believe more money can be made in capital appreciation, having said that, dividends are like the icing on the cake on an undervalued company where growth is expected.)
The Bear argument:
- An argument for stagnant growth is that foot locker has lagged the industry in moving their online e-commerce presence.
- A concern I found is that the total equity growth rate had been stagnant over the last 5 years with an overall growth of 1%. Although, aggressive share buyback may cause this to happen.
Fundamentals:
PE ratio: 5.16 (significantly lower than others)
"The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.0. This is 90% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.3 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This suggests that the market is Strongly Overvalued." (currentmarketvaluation.com)
Div yield 2.85%
In the last set of earnings:
Total assets at 8.2 billion up from 7 billion.
Total current liabilities sitting at 1.7 billion
Total liabilities at 4.8 over 4.3
FL's total revenue has been growing since 2005 and is sitting at an all time high for 2021. The company is producing more revenue, however, the stock price is not reflecting that, as the stock price was higher at period of time where revenue was lower.
In 2011 the company had 155.7 million shares outstanding, today, the company only has 104 million shares outstanding.
Valuation:
Trailing 12 month earnings per share (TTM EPS)
8.71
Estimated growth rates
The estimated analyst growth rate for FL is 39.21% which is extremly significant.
The total equity growth rate over the last 5 years was 1%, likely due to share buy back.
I decided to use an estimated growth rate of 12% which is very conservative compared to analysts, in order to leave toom for error.
Future P/E value
To estimate the future PE value (what investors are willing to pay) I will take the average
of the high and low PE ratio over the last 5 years.
High: 16.16
low: 8.40
Average: 24.56
What will the EPS be in 5 years?
(1+growth rate)^5 x TTMEPS
1.762 x 8.71
= 15.3
What will the future value of shares be =
5 year EPS = 15.3
15.3 x Future PE ratio =
15.3 x 24.56= 375$
At current growth rate, $375 is an estimated 5 year share price.
At a 15% annual return, I am looking to double my money every 5 years.
This puts the fair value for FL at this moment at 375/2
= $187
Whereas the stock is trading at $45 at the moment, it accounts for being undervalued, and also presenting a desirable margin of safety.
Analyst reports:
The average Foot Locker price target is $63.36 which implies over 42% upside potential.
Desired ROI:
At this time, the share price seems to have the support of being undervalued with room to run.
A risk in this trade is stagnation, otherwise, the share price may move sideways over long periods of time.
Whereas the share price fluctuates, even for lengthy periods of time AND whereas the fundamentals are not changed, or are improving, AND whereas there is a dividend being paid out during the holding period. The stock is justified as a strategy to store money with lesser exposure to risk, compared to the rest of the market where stocks are overpriced.
It is like putting money into savings, without the undue risk of losing the money. And also enjoying the Dividend payouts as well.
If I were to take the previous ATH as a price target. I would be looking at an over all return of just about 45%.
At a return of 15% per year, which is quiet desirable, this trade is justified as a holding position for 3 years, where as price levels of $40 or lower, without changes in fundamentals make the trade worthy.
This research was inspired by Daniel Pronk on Youtube, see his video here:
www.youtube.com
resources:
www.currentmarketvaluation.com