XAUUSD (Gold)Key Levels, Patterns, and Potential Price Pathways1. Wave Analysis & Elliott Wave Structure
Wave Labels: The chart shows multiple Elliott Waves labeled (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), and corrective waves (A), (B), (C).
Wave (B) Invalidation Point: This is marked at 2,703.88. If the price breaks this level, it invalidates the current (B) wave structure and suggests an alternative wave count.
Wave 3 Condition: For wave 3 to be confirmed, the price must close above the level marked as "wave 1" without returning below it, completing a 5-wave structure.
Divergence C: This suggests potential price divergence, indicating a probable reversal zone around this level.
2. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Levels such as 0.618, 0.66, and 0.786 are identified. These often mark key zones for potential reversals or retracements.
0.618 (2,668.76) and 0.66 (2,665.94): These levels suggest strong support in a possible reversal zone, labeled "LONG 2 SHORT 4," where buying interest could increase.
0.786 (2,657.48): This is marked as "SHARP 2 SHALLOW 4," suggesting a deeper retracement where the price could potentially find support if it fails at the higher levels.
Fibonacci Extension Levels: Extensions at 1.236 (2,666.65), 1.382 (2,662.25), and 1.618 (2,655.15) indicate probable projection levels for the continuation of waves, particularly wave 3.
3. Key Zones and Levels
Point of Control (POC): Marked at 2,657.29, this level represents a high volume zone where the market has previously shown significant interest. It may act as a magnet for price action or a pivot point.
Dealing Range: The range defined at the bottom of the chart, starting from 2,643.10, marks the most recent swing low. This is labeled as the "invalidation wave 0" level, meaning that a drop below this level could invalidate the bullish setup.
Weak High - Wave 1: At 2,710.28, the weak high level acts as resistance. Breaking above this could signal strength and continuation higher.
4. Projected Pathway & Red Line Scenario
The red line outlines a bullish scenario where price might initially bounce from the lower levels (around the Fibonacci 0.618 or 0.786) before forming a higher high.
Wave Progression: This scenario shows the potential development of waves 1, 2, and a projected wave 3 with higher highs. The sequence suggests that after a minor pullback, the price could complete the 5-wave formation upwards.
High Probability Zone for Reversal: Between 2,666.65 and 2,655.15, where both the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels overlap, suggesting a high confluence zone for potential support.
5. Strategic Points of Interest
Short-term Buy Zone: Around the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, indicating a favorable area for potential long entries.
Invalidation Points:
Wave 3 must hold above wave 1 level (2,710.28).
The invalidation wave 0 level at 2,643.10 would cancel the bullish setup if broken.
Protected Swing High: Near the 144M timeframe, this level suggests a strong resistance area where reversal could occur in the event of a failed high.
Summary of Analysis
This chart shows a high probability bullish setup for XAUUSD, with potential entry zones around 2,666 to 2,655. Key levels to watch include 2,710 for wave 1 confirmation and the 2,703.88 invalidation level for wave B. The red path suggests an upward continuation if support holds, with a clear invalidation point marked below 2,643.10.
