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GOLD Spot (XAUUSD) (OANDA EU Clients)GOLD Spot (XAUUSD) (OANDA EU Clients)GOLD Spot (XAUUSD) (OANDA EU Clients)

GOLD Spot (XAUUSD) (OANDA EU Clients)

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BEAR TRAP! - PULLBACK - 3000We've seen gold demand increase in China despite price showing rejection just under 2800 (at 2791). US Elections uncertainty is what's causing smart money to secure profits for now, hedging with short positions to compensate possible sell-off. Long-term trend is your friend: BULLISH. No US presidential candidate is going to save the world from what's happening, and, sadly, is only going to get worse... FED rates are starting to drop TOO MUCH TOO FAST. .. and that has only and always led to a recession and a big correction in the markets. The US bank unrealized LOSSES are 7% HIGHER than the 2008 housing bubble. The US stock market's greed indicator is HIGHER than before the 2008 collapse. ... We could go on with a bunch of economic, geopolitical, social, and humanitarian statistics, that are only pointing south for the world's health and stability. Gold has always and will always be the true product of value on the planet and it has finally broken through to its true worth in the market; which, by the way, is WAY MORE than just $3,000 per Oz. Do NOT fall for the pull-back, and buy the dip to what's only getting started. ... I am not a financial advisor. Every post I make is for my personal use with educational purposes. You are responsible for your own trading decisions. Trading the financial markets involves a high risk of loosing all of your money.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by PersaGold
GOLD: Trend is still bullishHi Traders! Gold futures rise 0.3% to $2,763.30 a troy ounce. The precious metal is close to its all-time high of $2,772.60/oz, set on Wednesday. Gold is maintaining its strength despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and slightly easing geopolitical tensions, says Pepperstone research strategist Dilin Wu. The driving force appears to be bets on a potential Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election, Wu says in a note. This is coupled with growing concerns over the escalating U.S. debt crisis. While both candidates advocate for expansionary fiscal policies, a sweep for Trump could see U.S. debt skyrocket by $7.5 trillion over the next decade, Wu says. This is more than double the $3.5 trillion expected under a Harris administration. Given the "Trump trade," the path of least resistance for gold seems to be upward, she adds. From a technical point of view, the trend is still bullish and on the intraday chart we have something like a bullish harmonic structure with a potential Target around 2773. The Trendline bearish breakout is negative, because it could trigger the Harmonic Pattern failure. Please support this idea for future updates below. Thanks for watching.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
Gold's rising momentum continues unabated, continue to focus on As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is often favored during periods of geopolitical turmoil. So far this year, gold prices have risen 35% and are expected to record their best annual performance since 1979. The intensified conflict between Israel and Lebanon has led to tensions, further boosting market demand for gold. Israel's recent air strikes have caused a large number of civilian casualties, attracting widespread attention and condemnation from the international community. The Lebanese Prime Minister said that the two sides may reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few days. Although this news may ease short-term tensions, market concerns about the future situation remain. The release of US third-quarter economic data showed that GDP grew 2.8% month-on-month, and consumer spending grew 3.7% at the fastest rate in a year and a half. Despite the strong economic performance, inflation has slowed, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising only 2.2%. These data provide new clues to the Fed's policy path. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Despite strong economic growth, gold remains the first choice for investors in an uncertain environment. As the election approaches, the market is full of doubts about the future direction of US economic policies, and the safe-haven demand for gold may rise further. The supply and demand of gold also affects the price. Uncertainty in the global economy has prompted investors to increase their allocation to gold, especially in a low-interest rate environment, where the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset has increased. At the same time, the loose policies of central banks around the world continue to support gold prices. In response to the economic slowdown, many central banks have generally adopted measures such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, which has further boosted demand for gold. On Wednesday, it hit a record high of $2,789.89 per ounce. On Wednesday, mainly driven by the uncertainty of the US presidential election and geopolitical tensions, investors' demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly. Gold hit a record high again on Wednesday. Today, investors continue to pay attention to the 1-hour support area below 2,778, and go long on gold after the correction stabilizes. Thank you for your likes, thank you
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Yuliya1l11
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce. Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand. Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market. It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year. Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year. Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week. Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant. Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel. In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels. Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price. During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below. Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2807 →Take Profit 1 2796 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2791 BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2752 →Take Profit 1 2763 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2768 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2756 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2761
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold can continues to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago started to grow inside the upward channel, where it at once rose to the resistance line and then made a correction movement. Next, the price continued to grow and later reached the resistance line of the channel again, which coincided with the current buyer zone, after which rebounded to the support line of the channel. Then Gold rebounded from this line to the resistance line of the upward channel, thereby breaking the 2605 support level, and also later exited from the channel. Price little grew and then started to decline, and in a short time fell to the support level. After this, Gold started to grow inside another upward channel, where it bounced from the support line and rose to the 2730 level. Price long time traded between this level, trying to break it, and later finally broke the 2730 level. After this, Gold rose to almost the resistance line of the channel, but not long time ago turned around and fell to the support area. At the moment, I think that the price can correct to support the line of the channel and then continue to grow inside the channel. For this reason, I set my TP at 2825 points, which coincides with the resistance line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
1
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ForexMasters2000
Gold looks shaky for a short Gold will tumble on a breach of the triangle its currently situated. Here is the trend line in red. The Gold Price for the past 2 hours has been stationary much of the time at the bottom of a 1 hour triangle. Waiting to be shorted and trapped down lower. Will you join me? There was very recently a 1 to 3m chart head n shoulders pattern so price was on the move upwards and around 2733 now. For educational purposes as trading can be risky. The chart has details of a stop loss and 2 profit targets for the Short. Idea is to short Gold with a waiting Limit order at 2735. Now, if you find that price gets close to 2735 but does not trigger your order, then that will mean that price is heading lower and they don't want you getting liquidity to sell your order and possibly profit from the short. That is when you sell on Market near 2735 or just below. Stop Loss is 2739.39 (tight) or for a wider but less Reward, place stop at 2744.78, a fair bit of room. I did that because the gold price does retrace and move around a bit pre New York. 2713.76 is TP1 and TP2 is 2682.62 or take profits when and where you feel comfortable.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
GOLD prices fall under the weight of yields and exchange ratesWorld gold prices fell in the trading session on Friday (November 1) under pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. However, the need to hedge risks ahead of the US presidential election next week helps limit the decline in gold prices. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 7.9 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29%, to 2,736.5 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. World gold prices decreased by 0.44% this week. On Thursday, spot gold prices set an all-time record at more than 2,790 USD/oz. The main source of downward pressure on gold prices this week is the increasing trend of US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased nearly 10 basis points on Friday, reaching 4.382%, the highest in the past 4 months - according to data from CNBC news agency. Yields increased due to falling bond prices as investors strongly sold US Treasury bonds ahead of the US presidential election next Tuesday. The reason leading to investors selling US debt is concerns about the increasing federal budget deficit whether Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris are elected. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.33%, closing Friday's session at 104.32 points - according to data from MarketWatch. This week, the index increased by 0.06%, bringing the total increase in the past month to 1.75%. The USD is increasing in value because this currency is also promoting its role as a safe investment channel in the context of the approaching US election.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Gold Approaching Critical Turning Point Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Subwaves and Final Leg In this chart, the Elliott Wave structure appears to be at the latter stages of a complex Wave 5. The following points summarize the current wave count and structure: Wave V (5th Wave Completion): The market is nearing the completion of Wave V in the higher-degree structure, which consists of five smaller waves (denoted as 1 through 5). The upper resistance zones (around 2,750 - 2,779) signal the end of the impulsive move and the onset of a potential correction. Wave (5) is subdivided into minor sub-waves, with the final minor sub-wave likely pushing the price slightly higher before reversing. Corrective ABC Pattern Expected: Post Wave V, a corrective ABC pattern is anticipated. The chart already shows the ABC structure, and the final leg C could soon begin. The corrective structure might target levels near 2,605 - 2,653, as indicated by the Fibonacci retracement levels (50% at 2,653.535 and 61.8% at 2,649.894). Price Targets and Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci levels between 2,605 and 2,653 act as significant retracement zones, providing a roadmap for potential price pullbacks once the 5th wave completes. A price correction to these levels could confirm the start of the ABC correction phase. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key resistance remains around 2,750.091 and 2,779, indicating a potential topping zone for the final wave push. If the market fails to push past these levels, it would reinforce the corrective outlook. Wyckoff Analysis: Distribution and Signs of Weakness In conjunction with Elliott Wave, the Wyckoff Method emphasizes market psychology and supply/demand dynamics. The following insights are derived from Wyckoff's perspective: Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The chart identifies a potential Upthrust (UT) in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution. This marks the final push higher before supply begins to exceed demand, typically leading to a price reversal. The distribution phase is a period when large market participants offload their positions, leading to increased selling pressure as the market tops out. Break of Structure (BOS) and Signs of Weakness (SOW): Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) indicate a waning bullish momentum, as prices begin to struggle to maintain higher highs. The Sign of Weakness (SOW) noted on the chart further emphasizes the potential for a bearish reversal, as this is an early signal that supply is overcoming demand. This supports the Elliott Wave view that a correction is imminent. Creek and Testing: The Wyckoff Creek represents a major price trend, and failure to hold above it could result in a return to lower levels, potentially retesting the breakout levels around 2,650. The chart’s suggestion of a Secondary Test (ST) in the distribution phase indicates the market is testing previous highs to assess the strength of the resistance. Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook Final Upward Push: There may still be a minor upward push as Wave V completes. Expect price action to challenge the 2,750-2,779 resistance zone before reversing. Corrective Phase Likely: A correction is likely to unfold over the next 2 weeks, targeting the 2,605-2,653 zone. This aligns with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff’s distribution phase indicators. The corrective move could evolve into a larger ABC correction over the coming weeks. Key Support Levels: Should the market correct, the 2,653.535 (50% retracement) and 2,649.894 (61.8% retracement) levels will serve as the first significant support areas. Deeper retracements could target 2,605.868 or even lower levels in case of strong selling pressure, with the 2,421.241 level acting as a major historical support. Conclusion: Both Elliott Wave Theory and the Wyckoff Method align to suggest that the current bullish momentum is losing steam. Traders should watch for a potential top around 2,750 - 2,779, followed by a corrective phase that may take the market back to the 2,600-2,650 area. Short-term opportunities may still exist for upside movement, but the medium-term outlook suggests downside risk as the market enters a correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
3
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Correction Near CompletionElliott Wave Analysis The chart appears to be utilizing Elliott Wave Theory, which breaks down market movements into impulsive and corrective waves. Here's how it plays out: Impulsive Wave (1)-(5): The first wave count indicates that XAU/USD completed an impulsive five-wave structure (labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves align with the primary trend direction. This likely represents the upward movement, suggesting that the broader trend for gold has been bullish over the last few trading days. Corrective Wave A-B-C: After the impulsive wave, the market appears to be entering a corrective phase, labeled as Wave A-B-C. Corrective waves typically move against the main trend, so this correction is likely part of a retracement before another impulsive wave could develop. In the short term, a potential Wave C (the third wave of correction) could unfold, which typically retraces a portion of the impulsive move. This means that a temporary pullback in XAU/USD prices is expected. Break of Structure (BOS) The chart highlights a Break of Structure (BOS), which is a key price level where the market shows a significant reversal or shift in trend. This BOS likely aligns with key levels of support or resistance being broken, suggesting that sellers might have temporarily gained control, causing a retracement or consolidation. BOS on a High Timeframe (H): This could indicate that the long-term bullish structure remains intact, but short-term corrections might occur as the market consolidates around this level. Wyckoff Phase & Accumulation/Distribution The mention of Wyckoff Phase B suggests that the market could be in an accumulation or distribution phase, based on Wyckoff’s methodology. Accumulation typically occurs when large institutions (Smart Money) are quietly buying during periods of low volatility, pushing prices higher afterward. In contrast, distribution is when institutions sell during periods of relatively stable prices, signaling a potential downturn. Since it is labeled "Phase B," it could mean that gold is undergoing an accumulation or consolidation process. Watch for a breakout above the current range, which could lead to another impulsive wave upward. Harmonic Pattern Zones The shaded areas on the chart might indicate potential harmonic pattern completion zones, such as a Gartley or Butterfly pattern. These patterns typically signal reversal points based on Fibonacci ratios. The purple zone might represent an important Fibonacci retracement or extension level where a reversal or continuation of the trend could occur. This zone serves as a critical area for price reaction, either providing a reversal back up or a continuation to the downside. Support and Resistance Levels Several key price levels are noted in the chart that traders should watch for potential entry or exit opportunities: Buy Stop Level at 2,681.565: This could be a planned buy-stop order that triggers when the price breaks through a resistance level, possibly indicating a continuation of the upward movement if the corrective wave concludes and the impulsive trend resumes. Current Price around 2,673.096: The current price level represents a near-term point of decision. If the price breaks above, it could continue upward, confirming a bullish trend. Conversely, if it breaks below key support levels, we could see further downside as the corrective phase continues. Stop-Loss and Leg Protection: There are additional stop-loss recommendations around 2,645.655 and lower protected swing points that align with the previous structure. These stop levels likely coincide with recent lows or key Fibonacci levels, providing protection against adverse movements. Market Sentiment and Key Risk Events Gold’s price movement will likely be influenced by key economic data and Fed speeches next week. Here’s what to watch for: Hawkish Fed Commentary could pressure gold downward as the U.S. dollar strengthens and yields rise. Conversely, dovish signals or weak U.S. data (like disappointing retail sales or softer inflation data) could lead to a weaker dollar, making gold more attractive and pushing prices upward. Next Week’s Plan Short-Term View (Corrective Phase Completion): Expect XAU/USD to complete the current corrective A-B-C pattern, with a potential pullback before resuming the upward trend. This correction could offer buying opportunities around key Fibonacci levels or after price interacts with the identified support zones. Look for Breakout Confirmation: If the price breaks above 2,681.565, it could confirm the end of the correction and the start of the next impulsive wave up. Watch for any breakouts from the current consolidation range, especially if prices start closing above resistance levels. Risk Management: Manage risk by placing stop-loss orders below recent swing lows (like around 2,645.655) to protect against deeper corrections. Consider using the buy-stop setup noted in the chart to catch upward momentum. Long-Term View: If the upward impulsive trend continues after the corrective phase, the next significant price targets could be above 2,700 and potentially higher depending on the broader macroeconomic outlook. In summary, the next week’s outlook for XAU/USD focuses on the potential completion of a corrective wave, followed by a resumption of the bullish trend. Key levels to watch are 2,681.565 for breakout confirmation and 2,645.655 for potential downside protection. Stay updated on U.S. economic data and Fed speeches to gauge any shifts in market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Gold H1 Chart BreakdownElliott Wave Progression: The chart indicates a completed 5-wave Elliott Wave progression. Wave 3 had peaked at 2,702.967, and a corrective phase has begun, following the completion of Wave 5. An ABC corrective wave is likely in progress, where price will retrace toward support levels before resuming its next move. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The retracement is expected to hit key Fibonacci levels, which act as support areas during corrective waves: 0.34 level at 2,698.043 0.5 level at 2,681.565 These levels act as potential reaction points where buyers could step in for the next bullish wave. A further critical support lies at equilibrium (2,645.655), which represents the 50% retracement of a prior bullish leg. Break of Structure (BOS): On a higher timeframe, there was a Bullish BOS, indicating that despite the current corrective phase, the overall bias remains bullish in the long term. The corrective move should be seen as a retracement, where price seeks equilibrium before continuing its trend. Order Blocks & Liquidity: A bullish order block is identified just below 2,645.655. If price reaches this level and holds, it could serve as a solid base for another bullish leg. Short-term Outlook: A correction toward 2,645.655 is likely before resuming the uptrend. However, if price fails to hold above 2,604.390, deeper corrections could occur, invalidating the bullish setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
1
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Key Resistance in Focus.1. Elliott Wave Theory: Wave Analysis Wave 5 Completion (Top of Impulsive Move): End of Wave 5 marks the peak of the bullish phase, followed by a corrective move (ABC correction). Wave 5 Targets and Invalidations: Expected completion around 2,749 - 2,750 (resistance zone). Further upward movement could trigger profit-taking, invalidating further upward thrusts if price breaks below 2,742. Wave 4 Retracement Level: Key Fibonacci levels: 0.34 (2,707.143) and 0.382 (2,707.749). Price reversal after Wave 5 could retest these levels as a critical buy zone. 2. Wyckoff Method: Distribution and Range Structure Distribution Phase: Smart money is preparing to offload positions, leading to markdown in prices. Phase A to Phase B: Phase A (Initial Selling Pressure): Signs of distribution occur; strong resistance met. Phase B (Distribution): Establishes a range with Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) leading to false breakouts. Preliminary Supply (PSY): Key resistance area where institutions sell, creating initial downward pressure. Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds within the range, marked around 2,718.091 (support line if market turns bearish). Sign of Weakness (SOW): Early indication of the distribution phase completing; marked near Wednesday or Thursday. Phase C (Expected Breakout): Final test or false break of resistance (UTAD) before a sharper decline. 3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Market Structure and Liquidity Change of Character (CHoCH): Potential shift from bullish to bearish expected next week after breaking highlighted structure level near AR. Market Structure Break (MSB): Expected below PSY and AR levels, confirming distribution. Liquidity Grab & Trap Setup: Areas highlighted for liquidity grabs around upthrust points (UT), likely early in the week with potential sharp reversal around 2,750. 4. Key Technical Levels & Patterns Upper Resistance Zone: 2,742 - 2,750 area serves as strong resistance; potential for false breakout (upthrust). Strong sell-off expected if price fails to hold above 2,742. Support Levels: 2,718.091 (AR Distribution Line): First significant support; break confirms markdown phase. 2,707 - 2,700 (Wave 4 Retracement Levels): Critical support for bullish bounce; breach leads to significant decline. Lower Target Levels: Expect price to reach 2,645.655 and potentially 2,638.105 after markdown. 5. Time-Based Projections Monday-Tuesday (Range-Bound, Liquidity Grab): Price may test liquidity above the UT area, hitting 2,742-2,750 range with potential false breakout. Wednesday (Sign of Weakness in Phase B): Price expected to weaken, testing AR levels, signaling a bearish market structure. Thursday-Friday (Bearish Breakout Expected): Anticipate a decisive break lower, entering Phase C and marking clear distribution. 6. Risk Management Strategy Invalidation Point: Bullish scenario invalidated if price breaks and closes below 2,707. Stop-Loss Placement: For short positions, place stop-loss above 2,750 to avoid traps. Take-Profit Zones: First target at 2,718, further downside at 2,645. Next Week’s Trading Plan Short Setup: Look for selling opportunities around 2,742-2,750, especially after false breakouts or upthrusts. Use SOW and CHoCH to confirm bearish entries. Target Levels: Expect price drop to 2,718, followed by 2,707 and possibly 2,645 if markdown is strong. Timing: Watch for reversal around midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) when bearish momentum likely takes control.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
2
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Brace for Bearish Momentum Current Market Structure and Phases Primary Phase: We’re in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase moving from Phase B (Testing of supply) towards Phase C (Market confirmation of weakness). Phase B: This phase contains a SOW (Sign of Weakness), where the price has broken support levels, indicating a strong selling interest. Phase C: Expected to confirm this distribution phase as prices break further down, suggesting continuation of bearish momentum. Key Levels Resistance Line (BC Distribution Line) at approximately 2,740.6 - This acts as a ceiling for price; any rally towards this level is likely to encounter significant selling pressure. Support Line (AR Distribution Line) at around 2,714.9 - A key level to watch; if breached, it signals further downside. Elliott Wave Structure Wave 5 Completion: The chart suggests the end of Wave 5 in multiple timeframes, which often leads to a corrective phase. ABC Correction Pattern: Following the Wave 5 peak, an ABC corrective wave is anticipated. The chart projects Wave A downwards with expected retracement up to Wave B around 2,713.32 level, followed by a further drop in Wave C. Harmonic and Smart Money Concepts Bearish Order Block (1H): A sell zone established from previous bearish action, likely to restrict upward movements and signal more sell-offs if revisited. CHoCH (Change of Character): A shift in price behavior from a bullish to a bearish trend, observed in this distribution structure. Retail Stop Loss Zone (4H): Located around 2,705, this is a liquidity zone where retail traders are likely to have stop losses. A move below this level could trigger more selling. Indicators and Oscillators MACD: Currently showing bearish momentum with potential for continued downside pressure. Bearish Divergence: Observed on the oscillator, aligning with the end of Wave 5 and confirming a potential downtrend. Weekly Outlook Summary (Mon-Fri) Monday (M): Expect a potential retest of the resistance line near 2,740.6 before a further drop. Tuesday (T): The beginning of Phase C should confirm bearish momentum with a breakdown below 2,714.9 if selling pressure persists. Wednesday (W): Continuation of the downtrend as the market completes Wave B correction, with a downward bias toward Retail Stop Loss zones. Thursday (T): Expect some consolidation before another leg down to complete Wave C. Friday (F): A probable low for the week as Wave C reaches completion around 2,695-2,700. In summary, the overall sentiment for XAU/USD next week leans bearish, with key levels providing resistance and support cues.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Market Dynamics Unveiled Analysis for October 29-31Wyckoff Structure and Market Analysis The chart illustrates the Wyckoff Distribution with phases A, B, C, and D, each representing distinct price movements and volume dynamics according to the Wyckoff methodology. Phase A highlights the initial Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Automatic Rally (AR) levels, indicating the onset of selling pressure and potential exhaustion of upward momentum. In Phase B, characterized as the consolidation phase, the Buying Climax (BC) and Secondary Test (ST) establish the trading range boundaries, with the Upthrust (UT) acting as a false breakout. Phase C typically marks the Spring or Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), representing the last effort to achieve higher prices before a reversal occurs. Finally, Phase D initiates the markdown, signaling the beginning of a downtrend. Key price levels in this analysis include a major Resistance Line at approximately 2,758.525, which the price has struggled to surpass, and a Support Line around 2,716.905, historically an area of demand. Current range markers indicate a Strong Invalidation Point near 2,765, suggesting that a break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, and a Weak Low of a Range (PWL) at 2,740.640, marking the lower limit of potential re-accumulation or distribution. In terms of wave analysis, the chart depicts a 5-wave structure in line with Elliott Wave Theory, indicating an impulsive move. Each wave is sequentially marked, displaying initial bullish momentum, with Wave 5 culminating at the peak of the distribution phase. Following the impulsive 5-wave move, a corrective a-b-c pattern suggests a potential downward correction. Smaller sub-waves within each major wave indicate minor price fluctuations, with the note “NO TRADES ABOVE” around 2,758 marking a crucial resistance level confirming a bearish bias. Key signals, such as the Change of Character (CHoCH) marked during the transition from Phase A to Phase B, indicate initial weakness in the upward trend. The Market Structure Break (MSB) visible in Phase C signifies the conclusion of the upward structure and the potential onset of a downtrend. The analysis also highlights supply and demand zones. The Supply Zone at 2,758.525 represents where selling pressure overtook buying interest, while the Demand Zone (AR Distribution) at 2,716.905 historically provided demand that could either support prices or be breached in a downtrend. In terms of trade setup and triggers, there is a sell setup noted with “OPEN SELL ABOVE BUY BELOW” around 2,740, suggesting a sell signal if the price breaks below this level. A critical Weekly Close (W Close) is marked in red near 2,716, as a close below this level would confirm further downside. Projected price movement is indicated by red lines and anticipated downward movement, with labels like i, ii, iii, iv, v denoting expected minor waves within the projected downtrend. Minor resistance during the downtrend is identified around 2,740, with support areas during the decline at 2,716 and potentially lower levels if further distribution occurs. The analysis includes significant high and low points in the distribution process. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) marks the initial high before Phase A distribution, while Buying Climax (BC) and Upthrust (UT) indicate peak points in Phase B. Additionally, levels that acted as support, such as 2,716, may become resistance if the price breaks below them. Regarding timeframe and events, various date markers, including October 29, 30, and beyond, provide an estimated timeline for each phase and price movement, alongside indicators for major economic events such as FOMC and NFP that could affect price dynamics. In summary, this chart outlines a complex interaction between Wyckoff Phases and Elliott Wave Theory, indicating a Wyckoff Distribution pattern that suggests a bearish outlook. The completed Elliott Wave impulse indicates a corrective wave is currently in progress, with key Resistance around 2,758 and Support around 2,716 acting as critical decision points. A Sell Trigger at 2,740 is noted, with confirmation of a bearish outlook contingent upon a weekly close below 2,716. Additionally, potential harmonic patterns have been identified, including a Bearish Butterfly Pattern and a Bearish Gartley Pattern, aligning with the anticipated bearish reversal. The Bearish Butterfly Pattern consists of an XA Leg from 2,685 to 2,758, an AB Leg retracement to around 2,734, a BC Leg upward extension potentially reaching the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension of XA, and a CD Leg aligning with a reversal zone below 2,716. The Bearish Gartley Pattern suggests a retracement from the Tuesday high of the week, where the final price point aligns with support between 2,685 to 2,700. A key harmonic confluence occurs around the 2,758 reversal zone, where both harmonic patterns converge as a high-probability area for bearish entries, targeting down to 2,685. Following the ICT Weekly Template, the high of the week is anticipated to form on Tuesday or Wednesday in a bearish outlook, establishing a peak before a decline. The projected Tuesday high around 2,758 serves as an optimal area for confirming the week’s high and a trigger for bearish trades. A stop-loss could be placed just above this high or slightly above the strong invalidation point at 2,765 to manage risk. The ideal scenario involves a push to this Tuesday high, confirming it as the week’s peak and triggering bearish positions. Once Tuesday's high is established, a downward movement is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, aligning with the forecasted wave structure and distribution pattern. This price action should lead towards lower support zones around 2,716 and ultimately 2,685 if the downtrend continues. In conclusion, the strategy revolves around using the Tuesday high as a sell signal, in alignment with the ICT weekly template and leveraging the Wyckoff Phase B Upthrust (UT) around 2,758 as a potential high for the week. The harmonic confluence of patterns such as the Bearish Butterfly or Gartley aligns with this level as a final reversal point. Trade management includes short positions at the Tuesday high (around 2,758–2,765) if bearish confirmation is observed, with a stop-loss above 2,765 and profit targets set at 2,716, 2,685, and potentially lower based on harmonic and Wyckoff markdown targets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil