Gold Gaining Strong Bullish MomentumHello Traders,
Let's talk about Gold. Here is what I see for its next moves.
I use these tools to help me:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
Fib Ret. & Ext. (Fibonacci Retracement and Extension)
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Volume Profile
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Looking at the big picture, it looks bullish for Gold. I see an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. Also, the EMA and VWAP are below the price, which is a bullish sign. Gold also broke out of falling wedges and then moved back a little (a retracement), which is another bullish signal.
There is an important area I call the critical zone. This zone is between $3344 and $3364. It's important because it has a Fibonacci extension (between 2 and 1.618), a small FVG (Fair Value Gap) from the 1-day chart, and a resistance level from the 4-hour chart (at 0.618). This critical zone is important on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
My idea is this: If the price of Gold goes above $3344, we can expect it to move higher into that critical zone, maybe up to $3364.
But, if you look very closely, there is also an ascending triangle pattern. This means we need to wait. It's best to wait until the price clearly breaks out (moves up strongly) or breaks down (moves down strongly) from this triangle before you open any trade.
Fundamental analysis:
FOMC Meeting Minutes (July 9):
Impact on Gold: Stronger (less rate cut chance) = Negative/Neutral for Gold. Weaker (more rate cut chance) = Positive for Gold. Volatility expected.
Trump's Tariff Deadline & Announcement (July 9 onwards):
Impact on Gold: New/higher tariffs = Strongly Positive for Gold (safe haven demand). This is the biggest risk/opportunity.
US Dollar ($) Trend:
Impact on Gold: US Dollar is downtrending = Positive for Gold.
US Bond Yields:
Impact on Gold: If yields fall = Positive for Gold. If yields stay high/rise = Neutral/Negative for Gold, but other factors (tariffs, central bank buying) might reduce this negative impact.
GOLD trade ideas
gold Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.3% 0.4% —
Non-Farm Employment Change
147K 111K 139K
Unemployment Rate
4.1% 4.3% 4.2%
Unemployment Claims
233K 240K 236K
Interpretation and Implications
Average Hourly Earnings m/m:
Rose by 0.3%, slightly below the forecast of 0.4%. This suggests wage growth is steady but not accelerating, which may ease some inflation concerns.
Non-Farm Employment Change:
The US economy added 147,000 jobs, beating both the forecast (111K) and the previous month (139K). This indicates continued, though moderate, labor market expansion.
Unemployment Rate:
Fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and down from 4.2% previously. This points to a modest improvement in labor market conditions.
Unemployment Claims:
Dropped to 233,000, lower than both the forecast (240K) and last month (236K). This signals fewer new layoffs and continued resilience in the job market.
Market Impact
Dollar (USD):
The combination of stronger-than-expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate is generally supportive for the US dollar, as it suggests the labor market remains robust. However, slightly softer wage growth may temper expectations for aggressive Fed tightening going forward.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
These figures reinforce the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance. Solid job creation and falling unemployment reduce urgency for immediate rate cuts, but the lack of wage acceleration may allow the Fed to maintain a cautious approach.
In summary:
The US labor market in July 2025 shows moderate strength, with job gains and a falling unemployment rate, while wage growth remains steady but not excessive. This mix supports a stable outlook for the dollar and gives the Fed flexibility in its upcoming policy decisions.
Today's bearish target for gold prices: 3300Today's bearish target for gold prices: 3300
Technical analysis:
Short-term support: $3330-3320 (5-day and 10-day moving averages),
Short-term resistance: $3360-3374 (61.8% retracement).
If it falls below $3330, it may fall to the $3306-3320 range;
If it breaks through $3374, it may challenge the previous high of $3450.
The daily chart shows that gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the MACD red column has expanded, but the RSI (60-65) shows a good bullish momentum.
2. Main influencing factors
Federal Reserve policy and non-agricultural data:
The market focuses on the US non-agricultural employment data for June released tonight (July 3) (expected to increase by 106,000, and the previous value was an increase of 139,000).
If the data is weak (for example, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%), it may strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in September, which is good for gold;
On the contrary, if the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back.
The unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (a decrease of 33,000 jobs) has pushed up the expectation of a rate cut in advance.
Geopolitics and safe-haven demand:
If the situation in the Middle East (such as the Iranian nuclear issue) escalates, it may push up the price of gold, but the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has weakened the short-term safe-haven support.
The continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world (net purchase of 289 tons in the second quarter of 2025) constitutes long-term support.
The US dollar and interest rates:
The US dollar index has weakened recently, but if the Fed postpones the rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in September is currently 75%), it may suppress the price of gold.
3. My views and market forecasts:
In the short term, the price of gold will fluctuate, and the trend depends on the non-agricultural data.
If the data is weak, the price of gold may rise to $3370-3400;
If the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back below $3300.
I think the possibility of a fall is high.
In the short term, I prefer the strategy and trading ideas of shorting at high prices below 3360-3370.
Suggestions:
Short-term trading: Pay attention to the breakthrough opportunities after the release of non-agricultural data. You can go long at the support level (3330-3320 US dollars) and try to go short at the resistance level (3360-3374 US dollars).
Flexibly adjust the strategy.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD, March 7, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 chart, wave 3 appears to have completed, and price is now entering a phase with an unusual structural behavior.
Wave 3 previously showed strong momentum, moving steeply and continuously, with no clear internal pullbacks – a classic impulse wave. Following this, we observed a corrective abc pattern in black, suggesting the end of wave 3.
Interestingly, although yesterday's ADP report was extremely bullish, gold only managed a mild breakout above the wave 3 high before pulling back this morning. Notably, the upward move followed a 3-wave abc structure in green, and price action is now showing overlapping waves with no clear directional momentum.
🧩 These signs suggest a high probability that:
🔹 Wave 5 is forming as an Ending Diagonal – a 5-wave structure with a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern.
🔹 This is typically seen at the end of a bullish cycle and often precedes a sharp reversal.
Although it's too early to confirm, we should patiently observe the upcoming price action. If the ending diagonal completes, it may present a strong sell opportunity.
🎯 Target for wave 5: around 3395, provided all 5 sub-waves within the diagonal complete.
⚠️ If price breaks below 3324, we must consider that the full 5-wave structure is already done, and a new abc corrective phase may have begun.
🔍 Momentum Analysis
Daily (D1): Momentum is about to turn bearish from overbought territory → suggests a weakening uptrend.
H4: Momentum is turning upward → likely a mild rally or sideways movement today before H4 reaches overbought again.
📌 Trading Plan
Given the current wave behavior and overlapping structure, it is best to remain patient and wait for confirmation before taking a strong position. If the Ending Diagonal structure is confirmed, it could signal a major reversal.
SELL Zone: 3392 – 3395
Stop Loss: 3403
Take Profits:
• TP1: 3368
• TP2: 3340
• TP3: 3324
Gold is Ready For The Next Bullish Run- Taking a Long Trade HereAfter a series of bearish structures on 4Hour time frame, which is actually a bullish retracement on higher time frame, Gold has now broke the bearish structure with series of bullish candles which turned the trend from bearish to bullish trend.
After the bullish break of structure, Gold retrace into a fair value price level, formed a swing low plus a bullish price action which further confirmed the bullishness of Gold, which is were I took an entry for a buy long trade.
My target for this trade is for Gold to reach the price level of $3,436 which is a 5.36RR return.
I will be monitoring price and manage my trade accordingly as price move in my direction.
Gold bulls and bears compete for non-agricultural dataTechnical aspects:
Currently, gold is in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole maintains a range of $3250 to $3400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range.
The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator runs around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shocks and consolidation.
XAUUSD Daily Analysis – Bearish BiasGold tapped a key level at 3,339, sweeping liquidity above before showing signs of exhaustion. A Change of Character (Choch) confirms potential reversal. If price respects this Bearish POI, we could see a drop back to 3,248 support. Watch for a TS (tap and shift) before continuation.
I will update you with trade setup so stay update
#Gold #xauusd #Forex #Dailyanalysis #bias #Goldbias
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)We've seen s sharp move back up overnight which is no surprise considering we are at the start of a new month & quarter. Markets will be spiking to both sides for monthly liquidity, before moving in the direction of the trend.
We're still holding below our yellow support zone & below 'Minor Wave 2'. If this continues to hold, then it'll be a good sign for sellers.
XAU / USD 30 Minute Chart Hello traders. All I can say is KABOOM. 100 pips in profit on this microlot sell trade. I am, as of this writing closing 75% of the trade's profit, moving my stop loss to my entry point (break even) and leaving a runner ( the remaining 25% of the trade) running. What a day. Big G gets all my thanks. Be well and trade the trend. I am very thankful that my analysis was pretty spot on.
XAUUSD_1WWorld Gold Analysis
Long -term frame time
Eliot wave analysis style
The market is in five waves of climbing and we are expected to be in the 4th wave, with the main and important number being $ 3333, and if the price is maintained as a resistance, it will continue to reform and move to $ 3000, which can be modified for up to 3 months and enters the next wave on October 5, 2025. As a wave 5 and move toward $ 3888.
The original number $ 3333!
GOLD SHORT TRADE IDEA ! Gold Looking For Sell On Order Block Zone 3331/3334 Target Will Be 3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish Engulfing + Fresh Supply Target Will Be 3275
Gold Sell First Zone OB H1 (3331/3335
Stoploss - 3345
Tp Levels - 3325,3320,3310,3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish EG + Fresh Supply (3338/3344)
Stoploss - 3350
TP levels : 3330; 3322; 3314; 3330, 3290
XAUUSD Market Maker Playbook – Learn How the Game Is Rigged🎓 XAUUSD Market Maker Playbook – Learn How the Game Is Rigged
Traders—if you think this market is some pure, fair supply/demand mechanism, you’re getting played.
Market makers run sophisticated pump and dump cycles designed to trap you.
Today, I’m going to break down exactly how they do it, so you can start trading like a sniper, not a sheep.
🔍 Understanding the 3 Manipulation Zones
🟢 GREEN ZONE: Accumulation Range (3286–3300)
Purpose:
Market makers quietly build positions.
They create an illusion of neutrality—small candles, tight ranges.
Signs:
Repeated tests of the same level.
Volume stays steady (not exploding).
Wicks in both directions (so nobody knows who’s in control).
🟡 YELLOW ZONE: The Pump Phase (3300–3330)
Purpose:
Trigger breakout traders.
Induce FOMO buying.
Clear out short stops above the range.
Signs:
Quick impulsive candles with LOW RELATIVE VOLUME.
Price blows through resistance but struggles to hold.
Social media and news start calling “Bull Run.”
🔴 RED ZONE: Distribution & Dump (3330–3350)
Purpose:
Offload large positions into retail buying.
Leave traders trapped at the highs.
Signs:
Spikes of huge volume as price stalls.
Rejection candles (long upper wicks).
Big delta shifts negative (sellers hitting bids hard).
⚔️ How the Market Maker Sequence Works
Here’s how the trap gets set:
1️⃣ Accumulate in Green Zone
Build inventory while convincing everyone “nothing is happening.”
2️⃣ Pump into Yellow Zone
Push price up just enough to trigger momentum traders.
Keep volume deceptively low—so it looks sustainable.
3️⃣ Sell in the Red Zone
Dump big positions into the buying frenzy.
Flip the tape bearish—fast.
Watch as the herd gets stopped out or bag-held.
🎯 Tomorrow’s Possible Plays
✅ Scenario 1 – Classic Pump & Dump
Phase 1: Grind in 3286–3300.
Phase 2: Spike to 3335.
Phase 3: Dump back to 3260.
✅ Scenario 2 – Fake Breakdown Reversal
Phase 1: Slam price to 3250, triggering panic selling.
Phase 2: Accumulate aggressively.
Phase 3: Rip price back to 3320, trapping shorts.
✅ Scenario 3 – Slow Grind Liquidation
Phase 1: Drift up in low volume toward 3330.
Phase 2: Distribute over several hours.
Phase 3: Liquidate longs into NY close.
📚 How YOU Can Spot This Manipulation
Here’s your checklist—save this:
✅ Volume vs. Price Analysis
Big price moves WITHOUT proportionate volume = FAKEOUT.
Big volume at tops/bottoms = Institutional distribution or accumulation.
✅ Delta Confirmation
Positive delta = buyers aggressive.
Negative delta = sellers slamming bids.
Watch for divergence (price up but delta down = hidden selling).
✅ Candlestick Clues
Rejection wicks.
Engulfing candles at key zones.
Multiple failures to break past a level.
✅ Timing
London open and NY open are prime manipulation hours.
Thin liquidity in Asia can exaggerate moves.
💡 Pro Tip:
“The crowd chases price. The professionals track volume, delta, and timing.”
— Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
🚀 Stay sharp. Think like a market maker. Trade like a predator.
#XAUUSD #MarketMakerEducation #ForexTrading #PriceAction #LearnT
Gold's rally has not reversed yet? The consolidation pattern hasTechnicals:
Short-term risks remain skewed to the downside as the momentum of the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) weakens. The RSI hit a new low below the neutral 50 mark. If short pressure intensifies in the next few trading days, gold prices may retest the upper track of the previous falling channel at 3215, followed by the rising support line from October 2024 at 3150. If it falls below this level, the decline may accelerate towards the psychological level of 3000, or even lower to 2970.
On the upside, if a strong catalyst pushes gold to rebound above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (currently 3320-3350), the next resistance level may appear in the 3400-3435 range. A decisive close above this boundary may pave the way for gold prices to move towards 3500, or test resistance near 3530, and then may target the 3600 level.
Overall, despite the weakening technical indicators, gold has not completely lost its bullish reversal potential. As long as the price remains within the sideways structure above 3150, the downward pressure may still give rise to a "buy on dips" strategy.
Bullish bounce off major support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,265.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 3,121.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold 30Min Engaged ( Reversal Entry's Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Reversal 3285 : 3272 Zone
🩸Bearish Reversal 3326 : 3334 Zone
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Reversal Entry's Detected )
Gold shorts may continue to 3280 or even 3255Gold started to fall from around 3342 in the Asian session, and currently hit a low of around 3305. This is completely consistent with my prediction: "Before gold stabilizes at 3340, it is still in a short trend. Gold shorts may counterattack at any time and look at the target area in turn: 3315-3305." Currently, gold has reached the target area as expected.
There is no doubt that gold is still in an obvious short arrangement at present, and gold shorts may have just begun. For the next short-term trading, we still focus on shorting gold, so what we are most concerned about now is where gold can rebound and where is the most suitable short entry? ! From the current structure of gold, gold is under pressure from the short-term head and shoulders technical structure. This resistance structure compresses the rebound limit in the short term to the 3335-3340 area; and the short-term resistance area is located in the 3320-3330 area; once gold is under pressure and falls again, I think it is very likely that gold will fall to the 3295-3285 area again, and may even extend to the 3365-3355 area.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading; you can consider shorting gold in the 3320-3340 area, looking at the target area of 3290-3280-3270
Weekly range to be continued, gold short and long this weekLast week, gold opened high at 3280.9 at the beginning of the week and then fell back. The weekly low reached 3245.8, and then the market was strongly pulled up by the support of this round of trend line and fundamentals. On Thursday morning, the weekly high touched 3366, and then the market fell strongly under the strong influence of non-agricultural data. On Friday, the market consolidated in the range due to the holiday, and the weekly line finally closed at 3337.2. The weekly line closed with a medium-sized positive line with equal upper and lower shadows. After ending in this pattern, today's market continued to move in the range. In terms of points, the stop loss was still at 3346 after the short position at 3342 last Friday. Today, it first rose to 3342 and the short stop loss was still 3346. The target below is 3330 and 3322. If it falls below, the support of 3310 and 3300-3292 will be targeted.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Monday, 7th July 2024)Bias: Bearish
USD News(Red Folder):
-None
Notes:
- Strong bearish momentum
on market open
-Looking for price to retest
4hr structure
- Potential SELL if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3345
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.