XAUUSD 1H1. Elliott Wave Analysis
The chart includes Elliott Wave labels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and corrective wave structures (labeled as (A), (B), (C)).
Impulsive Waves: Waves labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent an impulsive movement downward, suggesting a bearish trend. These waves are likely within a larger cycle, suggesting this phase is potentially coming to an end or transitioning.
Corrective Waves: After the initial 5-wave downward movement, a corrective wave is shown, which could signal the end of a downtrend or a temporary consolidation before further declines.
2. Wyckoff Phases
Phase A to Phase D: Wyckoff phases are used to map out accumulation or distribution. The labeling suggests this could be a distribution schematic with phases as follows:
Phase A: Preliminary Supply (PS) and Automatic Reaction (AR) indicate the start of potential distribution.
Phase B: "Secondary Test" (ST) in Phase B, showing re-testing of support levels and additional consolidation.
Phase C: This phase typically includes a “Spring” or “Shakeout,” but here it seems to correspond with a minor test lower before reversal.
Phase D: Suggests the possibility of a trend continuation based on the larger context, especially if the price moves into Phase E, indicating markdown.
The final phase or Phase D shows a Last Point of Support (LPS) and an upward test which could indicate a bullish or bearish breakout soon.
3. Key Levels
Highs and Lows:
Swing High at ~2790.08 USD: Marked as an invalidation point for a bearish outlook if the price breaks above.
POC (Point of Control) at 2737.39 USD: This level acts as a key area where significant trading volume has occurred.
PQH at 2685.41 USD and PQH 2 at 2689.41 USD: Likely indicating a previous high and resistance levels.
Key Support Levels:
2589.50 USD and 2569.73 USD are identified as support areas.
1.618 Extension at 2578.51 USD aligns with potential end of Wave 5 down.
Resistance Levels:
A Bearish Order Block (OB) around 2744.78 USD acts as a key resistance area. If the price reaches this level, a reversal may occur.
Long and Short Levels are plotted at 2709.22 USD and 2744.78 USD, respectively.
4. Chart Patterns
The chart shows a harmonic pattern (likely a Gartley or Bat pattern based on structure), suggesting a potential reversal at key Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically at 0.618 and 0.786 levels.
Bearish OB (Order Block): Marked as potential resistance, with a return to fill the gap in this area.
5. Volume Divergence and Fibonacci Extensions
Volume Divergence at 1.236 level (2609.63 USD): This area has volume divergence by Wave 5, which could signal weakening momentum in the downtrend.
1.618 Extension at 2578.51 USD aligns with the end of Wave 5, supporting the idea of a potential reversal from this level if it holds as support.
6. Projected Price Movement
The Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Method combined suggest a complex, multi-phase outlook:
If price respects the current support around 2578-2589, it could enter a corrective rally toward resistance at 2685-2745.
A breakdown below the invalidation point (2569.73 USD) could imply further markdown.
The price movement is shown with hypothetical pathways marked in red, indicating potential price structure depending on whether it respects resistance or breaks above the bearish OB.
Summary of Key Levels and Potential Moves
Resistance Zones:
2790.08 (swing high/invalidation wave 0)
2744.78 (Bearish OB / Potential Reversal Area)
2685.41 - 2709.22 (Previous High Levels)
Support Zones:
2589.50 - 2578.51 (Wave 5 bottom / Fibonacci level)
2569.73 (Invalidation Point for further downside)
Trade Outlook
Bullish Scenario: If price respects the 2578-2589 area, we may see a corrective rally up to resistance levels around 2685-2745.
Bearish Scenario: A break below the invalidation point at 2569.73 could indicate further downside with potential markdown continuation.
