GOLD trade ideas
XAU/USD 26 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD - Potential Breakout/Rejection at Trendline ResistanceXAUUSD is currently consolidating within a potential ascending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, supported by an upward sloping trendline (in green). Price is nearing a critical juncture as it approaches a downward-sloping resistance trendline (in red).
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: A decisive break above the red resistance trendline could signal a continuation of the upward trend. Look for confirmation with strong bullish candle closes and increased volume. Potential targets could be previous highs.
Bearish Rejection: A rejection at the red resistance trendline, confirmed by bearish candle patterns, could indicate a potential move back down towards the green support trendline.
Risk Management:
Always use proper risk management.
Only risk what you can afford to lose.
Adjust position size according to your account size and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Economic data released. Start of a new trend?The international gold market suffered a sharp sell-off, and the spot gold price once fell below the key psychological mark of $3,300/ounce, reaching a low of $3,392.59, as the US dollar index rebounded from a low of more than a month and concerns about the international trade situation cooled down.
The gold price is currently in a short-term recovery phase, and the downside risk is temporarily lifted. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit may support the gold price; but in the short term, according to the latest data released by the United States, it is conducive to the long operation of gold, and the gold price will rise briefly.
Gold is strong in the short term, but traders need to take profits in time to avoid unexpected events that cause trend changes.
Overall, the short-term trend of gold prices is still subject to the US dollar, interest rate expectations and economic data, and the competition for the $3,300 mark will become the key.
The US economic data is within the expected range, and gold has a short upward trend.
Operation strategy:
Buy near $3290, stop loss at $3280, profit range at $3320-3330.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold Outlook – Weekly Commentary 01-06-2025Gold continues to struggle in maintaining downward momentum, likely due to ongoing global uncertainties—particularly the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
On the weekly timeframe, gold has consistently retreated whenever it approached the descending trendline. However, a newly formed rising trendline, established last week, temporarily halted the metal’s decline.
A decisive break below this rising trendline—followed by a possible retest—could signal a sharp sell-off in gold prices.
Alternatively, gold may attempt another move toward the descending trendline before any significant drop occurs. In either scenario, we anticipate a bearish outlook for gold this week.
Important Reminder: This is NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) week. Volatility is expected, so traders are advised to manage risk carefully and protect their positions.
— From the Trading Desk of InvestmentLive
XAU/USD 02-06 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
XAUUSD LEVELSBased on this chart, here are the potential **Buy** and **Sell** levels for a **swing trade**:
### **Buy Levels:**
1. **3,240.00** – This appears to be a support zone where the price has previously held. If the price retests this level and shows a bounce, it could be a good buying opportunity.
2. **3,200.00** – A stronger support level where the price may reverse upward. If the price touches this level and rebounds, consider entering a long position.
### **Sell Levels:**
1. **3,520.00** – This seems to be a resistance zone where the price has faced rejection before. If the price reaches this level and shows signs of reversal, it could be a good sell opportunity.
2. **3,560.00** – A stronger resistance level where the price may reverse downward. If the price tests this level and gets rejected, consider a short position.
### **Stop Loss:**
- **For Buy Trades:** Below **3,180.00** (just under 3,200.00)
- **For Sell Trades:** Above **3,580.00** (just above 3,560.00)
### **Take Profit Targets:**
- **For Buy Trades:** **3,400.00** & **3,520.00**
- **For Sell Trades:** **3,320.00** & **3,240.00**
This analysis is based on visible **support & resistance** levels from the chart. Before taking any trades, confirm with additional indicators (like RSI, MACD) and market conditions. Always manage risk appropriately.
Gold’s Golden Reaction — Respecting the 4H FVG Like a Pro Gold is showing a classic ICT-aligned reaction after tapping into a clean 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), which acted as a high-probability point of interest (POI). The rejection wick and immediate bullish reaction suggest algorithmic interest has returned, hinting at a potential short-term bullish continuation.
🧠 Key Confluences:
✅ 4H FVG respected cleanly — often signals institutional accumulation when coupled with high volume and immediate pushback.
✅ COT Report Overlay: Institutional longs on gold outweigh shorts significantly (81% long), while retail is skewed bearish (69% short). This adds confidence to the long-side thesis — smart money likely pushing the upside.
✅ Price displacing higher after sweep of local liquidity — textbook liquidity grab before directional move.
🎯 Targets:
First Buyside Liquidity: 3,366.95 — this is the initial level where we may see some profit taking and possible rejection.
Second Buyside Liquidity: 3,433.85 — high-timeframe clean highs likely resting with unmitigated orders, making this a strong target.
However, due to the impulsive nature of gold, a retracement or pullback from the first target is very likely before continuation to the next liquidity level. This could present a second entry opportunity if the FVG zone holds support again.
⚠️ Risk Note:
A break and close below the FVG invalidates the bullish bias and could push price toward the prior sell-side zone near 3,257 or lower.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 28th May 2024)Bias: Bearish
USD News(Red Folder):
-None
Analysis:
-Strong bearish closure on daily POV
-Looking for price to retest 4hr structure high
-Potential SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3350
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
GOLD BULLISH TO $3,620 - $3,730Here's a breakdown video of how I used my EW strategy to identify the next bullish target for Gold towards a new ATH.
⭕️Wave 3 Peaked at $3,500.
⭕️Simple 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) Correction Complete for Wave 4.
⭕️Strong Support Zone at Wave 4 Low of $3,122.
⭕️Fibonacci Retracement Used to Target Wave 5 Target.
GOLD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,335.28
Target Level: 3,136.44
Stop Loss: 3,467.43
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short term is still dominated by short positions!Although the easing of trade tensions in the short term has led to a correction in gold prices, the three core factors supporting the strength of gold still exist: expectations of loose global monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks, and the long-term weakening trend of the US dollar. In particular, the market expectation that the Federal Reserve may maintain loose monetary policy will continue to provide momentum for gold to rise.
From the daily chart, the price of gold has shown a clear upward trend since this year. Although there have been several corrections in the middle, the bulls still control the medium and long-term market. After the previous rise in the H4 cycle, it is not so strong now. Instead, it is a volatile trend. The Bollinger band is closed, and the trend strength still needs market stimulation to rise again.
The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn, so the rising strength of gold bulls has been suppressed. The high point of the 1-hour rebound of gold has been getting lower and lower, and the low point has also begun to fall. The 1-hour gold has begun to fluctuate downward. The downward trend of the gold rebound is suppressed near 3340. Gold rebounds near 3340 and can still be shorted.
Gold Rejection in Focus – Will Bears Take Control?As anticipated from recent price action, gold’s latest movement may be signaling weakness and could act as a key trigger for short sellers. This is why I anticipate increased short-selling activity ahead. The bearish outlook is still intact. However, a rebound from resistance followed by rejection could once again attract sellers, setting the stage for a move toward the 3,180 support zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel.
That said, failure to stay below this level could invalidate the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the upper line of the channel.
Before considering any short positions, look for clear bearish confirmation signals—such as a bearish engulfing candle, strong wick rejections from resistance, or rising sell volume.
Please note, I will not get involved without proper confirmation.
XAU/USD 1H CHART PATTERNThe XAU/USD 1-hour chart shows a bullish trend supported by a strong ascending trendlinPrice has recently broken key resistance levels, indicating potential continuation to the upside. Multiple "Change of Character" (ChoCh) signals and bullish price action suggest increasing momentum. The market structure indicates higher highs and higher lows, with Ichimoku cloud confirmation supporting the bullish bias. A breakout above the previous supply zone could drive price toward the projected targets. The setup aims to capitalize on this momentum while managing risk through a well-placed stop loss below structural support and trendline confluence.
Entry: 3320
Targets:
1st – 3347
2nd – 3365
3rd – 3415
Stop Loss: 3291
Lingrid | GOLD bullish BREAKOUT from Downward ChannelOANDA:XAUUSD is retesting the broken trendline from above while consolidating just above the key $3,300 level. A successful bounce from this zone could ignite a rally toward the next resistance at $3,382, breaking the recent lower high structure. However, the market remains sensitive to any fake breaks, as seen multiple times in the current structure. Bulls need to defend the trendline to keep the upward momentum alive.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: $3,300 – $3,310
Buy trigger: bounce from upward trendline
Target: $3,382
Sell trigger: close below $3,300
💡 Risks
Another fake breakout could trap late buyers.
Bearish rejection from the red resistance trendline may stall upside.
U.S. macro data surprises could inject volatility.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – May 22, 2025 Structure Wins. Noise Gets Trapped. Let’s Get Paid.Only Snipers Survive.
Hey traders, GoldFxMinds here! Big day for gold tomorrow, with major USD news set to trigger volatility. Here’s how to stay ahead of the crowd — and not get hunted.Here’s your big picture, bias, and every level that matters.
📈 Macro Structure (D1/H4)
Bias: Bullish-to-neutral as long as 3290 holds.
Trend: Higher highs & higher lows. Price is in accumulation, not distribution, waiting for a real breakout.
News:
• USD Unemployment Claims
• Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
• Existing Home Sales
— All high-volatility triggers!
🕹️ SCENARIOS & SNIPER PLAYBOOK
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
News comes in weak for USD, gold holds 3320–3313 or sweeps 3302–3292 and instantly reclaims.
Action: Long only on M15–M30 confirmation
Targets: 3357–3362, then 3380–3388, with runners possible up to 3408 or even 3427 if the squeeze goes wild.
🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO
Data is USD bullish; gold breaks & holds below 3302–3292.
Action: Sell rallies into 3320–3313 (now resistance) or on M15/M30 rejection at 3357–3362/3388 ONLY if you see a hard reversal
Targets: 3287–3282 (first), then 3266–3258, finally 3238–3230 if selloff accelerates.
🟠 FAKEOUT/WHIPSAW
Expect first move after news to be a liquidity hunt – stop run above 3357 or below 3292.
Sniper move: Wait for the fake, then take the reversal with confirmation – not the first spike.
🎯 TRADE EXECUTION GUIDELINES
Never chase news. Let the stops get hunted, then strike with confirmation only at key levels.
Use the level context:
Reversal/fakeout = wait for rejection, don’t front-run.
Sweep and reclaim at demand = sniper buy.
No confirmation = no entry.
Plan for volatility windows: 2:30pm – 4:00pm is where the traps are set.
👀 EYES ON TOMORROW
BUY ZONES: 3320–3313, 3302–3292, 3287–3282
SELL ZONES: 3357–3362, 3380–3388, 3400–3408, 3420–3427
Control pivot: 3320–3313 decides intraday bias after news
Gold doesn’t care about your FOMO. Structure tells the truth.
Drop a comment if you want this style daily, smash like & follow for sniper-level clarity, and stay patient — the real trade comes when everyone else gets trapped.
Stay sharp!
GoldFxMinds 🚀
XAU/USD Outlook: Will Gold Open with a Bullish Gap?XAU/USD Outlook: Will Gold Open with a Bullish Gap?
Date Range: 26th – 30th May 2025
Timeframe: H4 (4-hour chart)
Market Bias: Short-term bullish
🔍 Fundamental Analysis
US–China Trade Tensions:
China halting imports of US goods puts pressure on the dollar (gold tends to move inversely).
Escalating tensions support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Tariff Threats to the EU:
Trump proposes 50% tariffs on EU products → potential retaliatory measures raise global uncertainty.
Risk-averse sentiment may push capital into gold.
Physical Gold Demand:
High seasonal demand from India and China ahead of festivals.
Inflation fears globally increase gold's appeal.
🌍 Macro Overview
Monetary Policy:
The Fed may face pressure to cut rates if trade tensions weaken the economy → bearish for USD, bullish for gold.
PBOC could devalue the yuan in response to trade friction, boosting gold prices in USD terms.
Market Sentiment:
A potential rise in the VIX (fear index) may drive investors towards safe havens like gold.
Strong demand for physical gold and ETFs, particularly in Asia, continues to support price.
Key Events This Week:
US Core PCE (inflation indicator)
US Consumer Confidence
EU and China responses to recent US trade policy
📊 Technical Analysis (H4)
Trend: Clear ascending channel
Current Price: 3,407.554
Key Resistance Levels:
3,407 – 3,444 (major resistance zone)
3,444.436 = potential all-time high
Support Zones:
3,361.648 (channel midpoint)
3,325.347 (lower channel boundary)
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
FVG 1: 3,361 – 3,407
FVG 2: 3,325 – 3,340
Price Action Note:
A doji candle near resistance suggests a possible short-term pullback before continuation
🔄 Possible Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
Break above 3,444 with momentum could trigger a bullish gap and extend toward 3,500
Strong fundamental and technical support for upside
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from 3,444 may lead to a pullback toward 3,361 or even 3,325 for buy setups
💡 Trade Plan
✅ Long Setup:
Entry: 3,361 – 3,370 (pullback into FVG or mid-channel support)
Take Profit: 3,444 (TP1), 3,500 (TP2)
Stop Loss: Below 3,325
❌ Short Setup (only on confirmed rejection):
Entry: On clear rejection at 3,444 (e.g. bearish engulfing or head & shoulders pattern)
Take Profit: 3,361
Stop Loss: Above 3,444
⏰ Optimal Trading Times
Monitor market open (Sunday, 26th May) for confirmation of a potential bullish gap
Best liquidity during London and New York sessions
📝 Summary:
Gold is well-positioned for a bullish move amid escalating trade tensions and USD weakness.
Watch closely for a breakout above 3,444 or a retracement to 3,361 as a strategic buy zone.
Stay updated on US inflation data and trade policy developments to adjust accordingly.
XAU/USD Weekly analysis 2-June-2025-Gold has been in a range for some time on the weekly time frame
-By the end of the month, a Doji candlestick formed. This is the result of equal power between buyers and sellers
-On the daily time frame:
Lower highs and lows have formed
And a downtrend and channel (purple line) have formed
-Meanwhile, on the 1H time frame, the lower highs and lows are seen within a channel (green line)
And the price tried to break through the resistance level but failed to break through it
On the other hand, given the steepening of the decline in the last trend (orange line), I expect the price to continue to decline to the next support level
*Be profitable
Thank you for expressing your opinion by liking and commenting
XAUUSD[GOLD]: Bearish Correction Is Happening! Gold rejected at 3350, dropping almost 600 pips to 3290. We can expect the price to drop further to around 3250, potentially reversing from there. A possible entry point is 3304, followed by a drop from there.
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can assist us:
- Like our ideas
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- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey everyone,
Please see update on our 1h chart idea.
After completing our Bullish targets yesterday, at 3236 and 3278; we stated that we would look for ema5 to lock above 3278 to open 3308.
- We got the lock above 3278, confirming 3308, which was hit perfectly today. We now have a ema5 cross and lock above 3308, opening the range above. Any rejections in this zone and we may see a retest of lower Goldturns for the usual weighted level bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3236 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3236 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3278 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3278 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3308 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3308 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3343
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3373
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3373 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3418
BEARISH TARGETS
3184
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3184 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3146
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3146 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3103
3069
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3069 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3030
2981
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
It seems calm, but there are actually undercurrents!Today, the monthly, weekly and daily lines closed simultaneously. At the same time, the PCE data will be released during the US trading session, and the market volatility may intensify.
From a technical point of view, 3285 is also the key to long and short today. If gold does not break 3285 today, the strength of gold bulls is expected to continue, and there is still room for gold to move upward. If gold continues to fall and falls below 3285, then gold may begin to fluctuate in a large range. The upper resistance is in the 3320-3330 area, and the focus is on the 3335-3340 line of suppression. Pay attention to the 3290-3285 line of support below, and the key position below is in the 3280 area. If it breaks below the 3280 area during the day, the market is expected to fall again to the 3265-3250-3240 area.