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GOLD trade ideas

XAUUSD – Clear Sideways Movement in a Narrow Price ChannelXAUUSD is moving within a parallel price channel, fluctuating between the 3,320–3,345 zone. Both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are running flat and close together, indicating a balanced market with no strong momentum in either direction. Recent highs and lows have formed within a narrow range, reflecting indecision from both buyers and sellers. The latest bounce also stalled at the channel resistance, lacking the strength to break out. As long as price remains below 3,345 and above 3,320, the sideways trend is likely to continue. During this phase, a range-trading strategy is preferred – selling near the top, buying near the bottom – while waiting for a clear breakout to determine the next directional move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Rocky_trade_
Final Trading Day Outlook for GOLD – Friday Bias and Trade PlanAs we head into the last trading day of the week, here's my outlook for GOLD ( CAPITALCOM:GOLD ): Bias and Expectation I was expecting a retracement from the 75% Draw on Liquidity (DRT) level — not just because of the level itself, but also due to its confluence with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a Bearish Order Block. And that retracement did occur. Thursday delivered that deep retracement, courtesy of economic data and news releases. That pullback tapped into a Daily FVG and is now trading above its Consequent Encroachment (CE) at the time of this analysis. ✅ If today’s candle closes above the midpoint of that FVG, it will further confirm my bullish bias. ✅ Even more convincing will be a close above the upper boundary of the FVG, suggesting strength and possible continuation. Market Structure Across Timeframes 🔸 4H Chart: Price has raided sell-side liquidity and formed relative equal highs, a sign that the market may seek to attack that zone next — possibly as a liquidity target. 🔸 1H Chart: The market is currently trading in the premium zone of the FVG, and shows a clear inability to trade lower, further supporting the bullish outlook. Trade Plan My trade idea for Friday is as follows: Wait for a purge (liquidity sweep) on the sell-side, ideally during a Kill Zone (London or NY). Look for confirmation and confluence based on my model (e.g. displacement, market structure shift). Enter long positions targeting the next liquidity pool, particularly the equal highs formed on the 4H timeframe. ⚠️ Reminder: Trade with due diligence. This is not financial advice. Always align entries with your personal model and preferred session. 📌 Final Note Today may present strong opportunities — but patience, timing, and context are everything. Let the market show its hand, then act. Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or insightful, please drop a like 👍 and leave a comment — I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Follow me for more daily price action insights and trading strategies on XAUUSD and other key markets. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈 ⚠️ Disclaimer This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All trading involves risk. You are solely responsible for your own decisions, so always conduct proper research and due diligence before taking any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly. May your final trades of the week be precise and profitable.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by AbdulMujibOnimisi
Don’t chase shorts when gold is at a low level, wait for a rebou From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper short-term resistance focuses on the hourly top and bottom conversion position near 3318-24. The intraday rebound relies on this position to go short once and look down. The lower short-term support focuses on the vicinity of 3280. The overall support relies on the 3280-3325 area to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. In the middle position, watch more and move less, and follow orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy: Gold 3285-3287 line long, stop loss 3277, target 3315-23 line, break and continue to hold
TVC:GOLDShort
by jiqeu1
Gold Trading Strategy | July 7-8✅ Key Resistance Zone: $3340–$3345 🔴 Daily Resistance: $3345 is the neckline of a typical “M-top” pattern. On July 7, gold prices surged to $3342 before quickly retreating, indicating strong selling pressure at this level. A valid breakout has not yet occurred. 🔴 4H Chart Resistance Band: The $3338–$3340 zone overlaps with both the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, forming a confluence with the daily resistance. This creates a key short-term ceiling, and unless it's broken, further upside will likely be capped. ✅ Key Support Zone: $3300–$3310 🟢 Weekly Pivot Zone: $3311 is a medium-term pivot level. A daily or weekly close below this level could confirm the start of a broader downward trend. 🟢 Psychological Support: $3300 is a major round-number support and also represents the average cost basis for many short-term long positions. On July 7, the price rebounded after touching a low of $3306, showing that buyers are still active around this level. 🟢 Major Support Band: The $3290–$3295 zone includes the 60-day moving average and previous horizontal support. A breakdown here could trigger technical selling, opening the path toward $3280–$3260. ✅ Trading Strategy 🔰 Break above $3345: Go long, target $3365–$3370, stop loss at $3330. 🔰 Break below $3295: Go short, target $3280–$3260, stop loss at $3310. 🔰 If price stays in $3300–$3340 range: Focus on selling at highs and buying at lows. Favor short-side setups unless resistance is broken. Stop loss at $3350. ✅ Gold remains within a $3300–$3340 trading range, with a short-term technical consolidation pattern. A breakout could be triggered by upcoming policy headlines or geopolitical events (e.g., trade negotiations). ✅ Suggested approach: Use a “light position + key-level stop-loss” strategy. Watch for a breakout above $3345 or a breakdown below $3295 to shift from range trading to trend-following. ✅ Bias remains bearish unless the $3345 resistance is convincingly broken. Until then, rebounds are likely to be short-lived technical corrections—prefer to sell into strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingMasterHub
Gold’s Last Push🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD 1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold) Central Bank Meeting Probable Move Cut Probability Hold Probability Fed Jul 30 Hold 4.7% 95.3% ✅ RBA Jul 8 Cut 94% ❗ BoE Aug 7 Cut 80.8% ❗ ECB Jul 24 Hold 9.3% 90.7% ✅ BoC Jul 30 Hold 26.5% 73.5% ✅ RBNZ Jul 9 Hold 16.9% 83.1% ✅ ✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly ❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold 2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025) Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLD Sep: 73.1% chance of CUT Oct: 55.9% chance of CUT Dec: 69.9% chance of CUT 🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold ⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD) Implied Volatility: 14.09% Range Estimate Value 1SD High 3355.38 2SD High 3385.78 3SD High 3414.87 🔺 1SD Low 3267.56 2SD Low 3237.73 3SD Low 3209.36 ✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415 🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209 Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish 📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD) Date NFP Actual vs Forecast Gold Reaction Jul 3 144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥 -200 ticks Jun 6 139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥 +36, -104 ticks May 2 177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥 -105 ticks 🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness 🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC) Index Buy Sell Net NASDAQ 345M -86M +258M ✅ MAG7 113M -41M +72M ✅ S&P 500 1055M -1041M +13M DOW 30 106M -168M -62M ❌ 🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows 🟡 Caution on S&P 🔴 DOW weak This supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite. ✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders) 🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week): Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflows Rate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July) Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists 🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025): Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upside Key upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FaithdrivenTrades
XAUUSD: New-Week Technical Bias (Market Open)Multi-Timeframe Structural Outlook: Higher Timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily): Broad structure remains bullish within an Ascend Sequence, though notable Monthly Price Cap Rejections indicate overhead resistance slowing momentum. Daily & 4H Technical Picture: Value Compression Phase (VCP): Price compresses within 3500 – 2956, with consolidation occurring above mid-range, favoring upside continuation probability. 4H Internal Structure: Aligns with daily compression, showing structural respect of higher lows, maintaining bullish pressure. Above mid-range VCP compression typically signals a breakout potential above 3500. Liquidity Mechanics & Risk Zones: Upside: Early-week bullish lean remains valid, targeting a break and sustained acceptance above 3500, confirming continuation of the Ascend Sequence. Downside Invalidations: A decisive breakdown below Order Clustering Zones (OCZ) and anticipated Trap Vectors (TV), leading price into/below the VCP range low (2956), would signal bearish vulnerability and invalidate bullish continuation. Summary: Early-week bullish bias preferred while price holds above mid-range compression. Breakdown below OCZ & VCP range low triggers trend deterioration signals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Olamitrades1
Market next target 🔄 Disruption Analysis: 📌 Current Scenario: Price is trading around 3,336.400, just below the identified resistance zone (~3,340-3,343). A range-bound structure is visible with repeated rejections at resistance and support. --- 🚨 Disruption View: ❌ Invalidating Bearish Bias: The chart assumes a bearish move toward the 3,320 target, but there are early signs of strength near the mid-range (3,335 area). Failed breakdowns and higher lows indicate buying pressure below 3,330. --- 🟢 Alternative Disruption Outlook (Bullish Flip): If price breaks and holds above 3,343 resistance, we may see: 🔼 Upside breakout toward 3,355–3,360 zone. 📈 Continuation of the larger uptrend from July 1st rally. --- 🔁 Key Disruption Levels: Support: 3,328–3,330 (interim zone to watch before full drop) Resistance: 3,343–3,345 (bullish breakout point) Invalidation of Bearish Bias: Closing above 3,345 on strong volume.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Gold continues to short Life is like a thread. As long as today continues and as long as there is hope for tomorrow, we will always be at the starting point and on the road to running. Don't be afraid of the long road, don't complain about the lack of scenery on the roadside, don't despair at any time, just keep running, the bumps under your feet are the cornerstones of our life, and perhaps the turning point is just around the next corner! Gold, on the eve of the US market yesterday, the shorts repeatedly touched the lower support of 3282, but ultimately lacked the momentum to make a final push, which led to a reverse reversal in the US market and a continuous rebound effect. As of the morning of the day, the highest reached near 3326, and the daily line also closed at the bald small positive line of the lower lead. The current upper pressure is maintained at the previous 3330 line. This position will also be related to the continuity of the long and short positions in the later period, and the highest in the morning will also be maintained near this position. For the European market, this position is even more important. Once it continues to break through, the US market will likely continue to rise, and it can also be used as the position of the long and short watershed in the short term, and the recent trend continuity is extremely high. , most of them are maintained in the range of shock operation, and the support below will be maintained at 3310, which is also the key defensive point of the European session. Although the daily line is currently closed at a small positive line, it is still obviously insufficient in power, and the multi-hour line is also maintained in the downward channel without a breakthrough. In the short term, it is still in a bearish situation overall. If there is no breakthrough for a long time, it may continue to fall in the later period. If gold rebounds near the morning high, it can continue to short. If the European session breaks through strongly, it needs to adjust its direction before the US session. If gold rebounds near 3325-26, it can be shorted. The target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335! Gold rebounds near 3325-26 during the day, and the target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335.
TVC:GOLDShort
by jiqeu1
Gold prices converge, 3300-3330 range breaks?Gold prices converge, 3300-3330 range breaks? The following current events may become catalysts for gold price changes: Trump announced on social media that August 1 is the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" and mentioned that he plans to impose a 200% tariff on medicines and a 50% additional tax on copper. The market quickly digested the expectation of escalating trade conflicts. The market expects that Trump may threaten to increase tariffs to force other countries to make concessions, but may eventually extend the deadline. If the breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, gold prices may hit $3,400; if a small agreement is reached, gold prices may fall back to $3,300. Focus: July 11 US CPI data: will verify inflation stickiness and affect the direction of real interest rates. If CPI is lower than 2.8%, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; if it is higher than 3.0%, it may suppress gold performance. Fed policy signal: The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on July 11 may provide more details about the internal differences in the interest rate decision. In addition, Powell's recent statement shows that he is cautious about interest rate cuts. If this position continues, gold prices may temporarily fall into a volatile pattern. Optimistic scenario (probability 30%): The United States and Japan reach a small agreement, and the price of gold falls back to $3,300; Pessimistic scenario (probability 50%): The breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, and the price of gold hits $3,400; Extreme scenario (probability 20%): Trump restarts tariffs on China, triggering the price of gold to hit the previous high of $3,450. Technical analysis: As shown in the figure: 4-hour cycle Gold prices converge, range oscillation: 3,300-3,330 This range will determine the direction of the next trend of gold prices. As the oscillation space becomes narrower and narrower, it is expected that a new round of market will break out today or at the latest this Friday. The author believes that if the bullish tone of the macro trend remains unchanged, the price of gold may still break upward. There is a high probability that the high of $3,400 will be hit again this week. Of course, we must respect all possible scenarios. Intraday trading strategy: Long strategy: Buy: 3310-3315 Stop loss: 3295 Target: 3330-3350-3400 Short strategy: Sell: 3325-3330 Stop loss: 3335 Target: 3315-3310-3300-3285-3250 The market is currently volatile, but the focus of gold price trading is on trends rather than prices. When emotions strike, the direction of making money is the key.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
GOLD PULLS BACK TO TREND LINE AND RE-ENTERS BUY ZONE!Hey Traders so looking at Gold right now seems like we are consolidating at 3310 looking for direction. However I think the trend is still up because if you look close at support levels 3240 it has rejected that level twice. Of course markets can flip on a dime when something unpredictable happens in this tariff driven environment so we still need to be cautious. Seasonally Gold Rises in the Summer from a historical standpoint. But watch out to see what happens at todays FED meeting. So if your Bullish this is the place to buy cautiously consider small position on an aggressive entry and put stop below 3230 which looks like it could be good level. Or if conservative wait until after FED meeting to see how market reacts off this level and they buy again on a pullback if market reacts positive. However if Bearish I would wait for a daily close and break below 3215 or 3200 before considering selling. Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTheIndex
Gold’s Bullish Range Holds – Is This the Dip to Buy?With tensions easing in the Middle East and risk appetite moderating, gold has settled into a bullish daily range. The metal recently broke a key high, confirming its upward momentum, but now appears to be consolidating. The central question is whether gold will break lower for a deeper correction or whether this is merely a pause before the next leg higher. Reduced geopolitical risk has tempered the “risk-on” rally in gold, but the metal remains firmly within a bullish daily range. This indicates that the underlying bid has not disappeared—only short-term speculative flows have adjusted. Gold recently breached a protected high—likely a higher high or significant resistance level—reinforcing the prevailing bullish momentum. A pullback into imbalance or demand zones is anticipated; however, if a catalyst emerges, price could resume its advance from current levels, with the 0.328 Fibonacci retracement acting as a strong support. Meanwhile, the DXY is exhibiting signs of a pullback but lacks the fundamental drivers necessary to sustain a broader rally.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Austin_Palmer
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar - 1h Analysis (OANDA)Price Overview Current Price: 3,286,190 24h Change: +15,525 (+0.47%) Recent High/Low: High: 18,286,420 Low: 12,284,465 Order Block (OB) Analysis Profit Targets: Multiple profit levels are identified, with the highest at 3,339,000 and the lowest at 3,279,000. The price is currently between the 3,286,190 (current) and 3,279,000 (next profit level), suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. Entry & Stop-Loss: Entry: 3,270,000 Stop-Loss (S/L): 3,270,000 (same as entry, indicating a break-even or tight risk strategy). Key Levels (USD) Resistance: 3,350,000 (major) 3,339,000 (immediate) Support: 3,286,190 (current level) 3,279,000 (next profit target) 3,270,000 (critical support & entry) Market Sentiment Bullish Bias: Price is above the entry point (3,270,000) and showing a 0.47% gain. Caution: Profit-taking may occur near 3,330,000–3,339,000. A break below 3,270,000 could invalidate the bullish setup. Actionable Insights If Long: Hold for targets up to 3,339,000, but monitor for rejection at resistance. If Neutral: Wait for a break above 3,330,000 (confirmation) or below 3,270,000 (reversal signal). Risk Management: Tight stop-loss at 3,270,000 protects against downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tdawly_Official