Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy – July 1✅Yesterday, gold staged a strong “V-shaped reversal,” surging violently from the intraday low of $3247 to a high of $3309. The daily chart closed with a large bullish candlestick featuring a long lower shadow, initially confirming the validity of short-term bottom support and signaling a strong bullish rebound.
✅Fundamental Overview:
The U.S. Dollar Index recorded its sixth consecutive monthly decline, further falling today to 96.87—the longest losing streak since 2017. This reflects growing market expectations for future Fed rate cuts. A weakening dollar has strengthened non-U.S. currencies and reduced the holding cost of gold, providing upward momentum for gold prices.
✅Technical Analysis:
Gold is currently in a technical rebound phase. After reclaiming the key $3300 level yesterday, the short-term trend has returned to a bullish stance. A bullish consolidation structure is now confirmed. However, on the daily chart, prices are still capped below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages (around $3330–3340), while the RSI remains in a weak adjustment phase below the midline, suggesting medium-term direction remains uncertain. In the short term, bulls dominate. The 4-hour chart shows consecutive bullish candles breaking above the middle Bollinger Band, with a golden cross forming near the $3285 area. The 1-hour chart shows Bollinger Bands expanding upward, with prices riding the upper band and moving averages in bullish alignment.
🔴Key Resistance Levels: 3328 – 3335 – 3348
🟢Key Support Levels: 3305 – 3282 – 3271
✅Trading Strategy for Asia–Europe Session:
🔹 Long Positions:
🔰If gold remains firmly above $3300, consider entering long positions on pullbacks to the $3305–3308 zone. Set a stop-loss below $3300 and aim for a target range of $3328–3335.
🔰If the price breaks above the $3328 resistance with volume confirmation, consider adding to long positions near $3330, with upside targets at $3345–3350.
🔹 Short Positions:
🔰If gold rallies toward $3328 but fails to break through, and upward momentum weakens, consider light short positions. Set a stop-loss above $3335, with downside targets at $3310–3305.
🔰If the price unexpectedly breaks below the $3280 support, possibly triggering algorithmic selling, the correction may extend further toward the $3250–3260 range.
✅Currently, gold continues to show a moderately bullish trend, and the European session is expected to fluctuate within the core range of $3300–3335. Strategically, it's recommended to prioritize buying on dips, with shorts considered only on failed rallies. If upcoming U.S. data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, gold could break above the $3350 threshold. Conversely, if the data is strong or geopolitical risks ease, be cautious of a potential pullback, with key defense support at $3280.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
XAUUSD 30/6 – 4/7/2025: Selling Pressure Builds - In the past week, gold OANDA:XAUUSD has been under consistent selling pressure due to the following key macro factors:
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY surged, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and leading to widespread sell-offs.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered around 4.30%–4.35% , reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
- Core PCE data for June indicated that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
➤ As a result, these combined factors are applying downward pressure on XAUUSD, especially after price decisively broke the 3,300 USD support zone.
1. Technical Analysis of XAUUSD – Daily Timeframe
On the D1 chart:
- Price has broken below the key support zone 3,300 – 3,331 USD, confirming a short-term bearish structure.
- The Fibonacci retracement from the 3,399 peak to the 3,295 low has completed its pullback to the 0.5–0.618 zone (3,345 – 3,359 ) but was strongly rejected by sellers.
- Price is now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50, indicating strong bearish momentum.
- RSI has turned back under 50 and has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting further downside potential exists.
2. Key Resistance and Support Zones for XAUUSD
Technical Role ( 3,345 – 3,359 )
- Major confluence resistance (Fibonacci 0.618 + supply) ( 3,295 – 3,300 )
- Immediate resistance zone (post-breakdown retest) ( 3,260 – 3,235 )
- Short-term support and potential buy interest ( 3,223 – 3,205 )
- Strong medium-term support (Fibonacci 1.0 + April lows)
3. Trading Strategy for XAUUSD This Week (30/6 – 4/7/2025)
Strategy 1 – Favor Short Positions Aligned with Bearish Momentum
Entry: Sell near 3,295 – 3,300 (anticipating resistance retest)
Stop Loss: 3,304
Take Profit 1: 3,290
Take Profit 2: 3,285
Take Profit 3: 3,275
Strategy 2 – Countertrend Buy at Key Support with Confirmation
Entry: Buy near 3,235 – 3,240 only if bullish reversal candles (pin bar or bullish engulfing) appear on H4 or D1
Stop Loss: 3,230
Take Profit 1: 3,245
Take Profit 2: 3,250
Take Profit 3: 3,260
Ps : XAUUSD is currently in a downward correction phase, with the next target zone lying between 3,235 – 3,260 USD. The inability to hold above 3,300 confirms that sellers remain in control. The most favorable approach this week is to sell on rallies, especially near former support-turned-resistance zones.
Stay vigilant, follow updated price action closely, and strictly manage risk to protect your capital.
Follow for more high-probability strategies throughout the week – and save this idea if you find it valuable to your trading journey.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
WEEK PLAN|Will This Gold Rally Collapse Into a Liquidity Trap ? Gold remains trapped between high-liquidity resistance and a strong order block below. While short-term bullish structure is forming, the weekly outlook remains complex due to upcoming high-impact events from the Fed and US labour data. Expect volatility and traps in both directions.
🧠 Fundamental Context
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed 9 July): Market will look for rate cut clues.
Unemployment Claims (Thu 10 July): A stronger labour market = stronger USD = bearish for gold.
FOMC Member Waller Speaks (Thu 10 July): Any hawkish tone could cap gold upside.
📊 Key Zones
Zone Role Notes
3,387 – 3,439 Sell Zone High liquidity, weak highs, ideal reversal trap
3,240 – 3,260 Buy Zone Strong OB, liquidity sweep, aligned with trendline support
3,365 Weekly High May reject or break based on macro catalyst
🛠️ Trade Setups (Entry Zones as Requested)
✅ 1. BUY GOLD
Entry: 3,346 – 3,344
Stop Loss: 3,340
TP1: 3,356
TP2: 3,366
TP3: 3,376+ (Open Target)
Rationale: Scalping long off micro demand, aiming for a short-term spike above liquidity.
✅ 2. BUY GOLD SCALPING
Entry: 3,291 – 3,289
Stop Loss: 3,285
TP1: 3,299
TP2: 3,310
TP3: 3,320+ (Open Target)
Rationale: Buy on breakout momentum before hitting higher sell-side zones.
✅ 3. SELL GOLD
Entry: 3,389 – 3,391
Stop Loss: 3,396
TP1: 3,381
TP2: 3,371
TP3: 3,361 (Open Target)
Rationale: Fade the breakout — fakeout zone targeting liquidity void beneath.
✅ 4. SELL GOLD
Entry: 3,349 – 3,351
Stop Loss: 3,355
TP1: 3,339
TP2: 3,329
TP3: 3,319 (Open Target)
Rationale: Short off weak rally, playing potential rejection near intraday high.
📅 This Week’s Events
Date Event Likely Impact
9 July FOMC Minutes Fed tone → volatility spike
10 July Jobless Claims (233K) Strong number = gold downside
10 July FOMC Waller Speech Additional risk-on/risk-off flows
⚠️ Trading Strategy
Use H1–H4 confirmations (CHoCH, BOS, FVG) before entries.
Avoid entries 1h before and after red news.
Focus on 3,260–3,439 range as key decision area for the week.
6/7/25 Gold pre market outlook
as price showed a signs of bearishness (1H CHOCH)
short ideas as following:
the price managed to form a bearish flag. Therefore, what I want to see is breaking down the flag with 1H body candle close + Retest the lower trend line (on lower TF like 5M or 15M)
will enter the trade if getting a strong BOS targeting the lower bullish OB
If the price breaks up the flag, what I want to see after visiting the upper bearish OB is 1H body candle close below the bearish OB + Retest OB level on lower TF (5M or 15M) and will enter the trade after forming a strong lower TF choch targeting the lower bullish OB
Gold’s Bullish Range Holds – Is This the Dip to Buy?With tensions easing in the Middle East and risk appetite moderating, gold has settled into a bullish daily range. The metal recently broke a key high, confirming its upward momentum, but now appears to be consolidating. The central question is whether gold will break lower for a deeper correction or whether this is merely a pause before the next leg higher.
Reduced geopolitical risk has tempered the “risk-on” rally in gold, but the metal remains firmly within a bullish daily range. This indicates that the underlying bid has not disappeared—only short-term speculative flows have adjusted.
Gold recently breached a protected high—likely a higher high or significant resistance level—reinforcing the prevailing bullish momentum. A pullback into imbalance or demand zones is anticipated; however, if a catalyst emerges, price could resume its advance from current levels, with the 0.328 Fibonacci retracement acting as a strong support.
Meanwhile, the DXY is exhibiting signs of a pullback but lacks the fundamental drivers necessary to sustain a broader rally.
GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3335.9
Stop - 3338.8
Take - 3330.1
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Why is the 147k Beat in Payrolls Data Not as Strong as it Seems?Yesterday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in above expectations, but a closer look at the details reveals a less encouraging picture. Despite the headline beat, market reactions quickly faded. For instance, gold initially dropped from 3350 to 3311 in the first 15 minutes after the release but has since recovered more than 75% of that decline. So why is the June jobs report not as strong as it first appeared?
According to the BLS report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 147k in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 106k. However, when breaking down the numbers, private payrolls rose by just 74k, well below expectations. Most of the gains came from government and healthcare hiring. Government jobs accounted for 73k new positions, and 63k of those came from the education sector alone.
Some analysts suggest the high net hiring in education may be due more to a lack of firings, a consequence of a tight labor market in that sector. Meanwhile, the 59k increase in healthcare jobs is part of a long-term trend. Over the past two years, the U.S. has added an average of 70k healthcare jobs per month. This growth is largely driven by the needs of an aging population and reduced payrolls during and after the pandemic that have yet to fully recover.
If you exclude government and healthcare hiring, U.S. payrolls increased by just 15k in June.
The unemployment rate also came in better than expected, falling to 4.1% from 4.2%, while markets had anticipated a rise to 4.3%. However, this decline was driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.3% from 62.6% in just two months , a worrying sign that fewer people are actively participating in the labor market.
In the first 15 minutes after the data came, gold fell to 3311 from 3350. In the following 18 hours, gold recaptures 85% of the loss. Gold is still over the broken bearish trendline in 1-H timeframe. With tariff deadline in 9th July and incoming 10-12 tariff letters coming in from Trump in the next few days, gold could have potential to go upwards with market understands this jobs data is not strong as it seems.
Plan for London on NFP Day (03.07.2025)⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. It’s simply my personal trade plan and analysis.
I just want to share knowledge for free – that’s all.
My concept is: Keep it simple, stupid.
Life is already complicated enough thanks to the people around me, so I prefer to keep things simple… at least when it comes to my charts. 😆
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📈 London Session Trade Plan (only for London session)
Resistance Zones
Zone 1: 3422 – 3410
Zone 2: 3394 – 3380
Support Zone
Zone 1: 3334 – 3327
Entry Strategy – I’m watching for 4 main scenarios:
1. Blue Arrow:
If price reaches Resistance Zone 1 → wait for clear PA (Price Action) on M15 or M30 → then look to Sell
2. Black Arrow:
If price reaches Resistance Zone 2 → wait for PA on M15 or M30 → then Sell
3. Red Arrow:
If price drops to Support Zone 1 → wait for PA on M15 or M30 → then Buy
4. Pink Arrow:
If price breaks below Support Zone 1 → wait for price to pull back → then Sell
(In this case, I’ll use Fibonacci to assist with entries – key levels: 50.0 and 61.8)
But for today, I give this scenario a lower win rate compared to my other techniques. So I’ve decided not to use this strategy for the London session.
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‼️Scenario 5 – Sideways Market
If price just keeps ranging inside the green circle and there's no clear PA → I will not react at all.
This is common before big events like NFP. No signal = No action.
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✅ Reminders to Myself:
I'm an intraday trader who separates sessions by market behavior.
Today is NFP day, and price often moves wildly and irrationally.
It's okay to stay out of the market.
When in doubt
Focus on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls!Gold hourly chart;
Gold short-term analysis; Gold 4-hour analysis shows that the stochastic indicator is golden cross, which is a bullish signal; MACD indicator double lines stick together upward, which is a bullish signal; 4-hour bias continues to rise; 4-hour downward trend channel is temporarily suppressed, and the pressure position is near 3355, which is the only empty point today; the short-term support position is temporarily near 3320;
Gold breaks trend – bullish wave returnsIn the most recent trading session, gold (XAUUSD) has made a strong rebound from the key support zone around $3,263 and is now approaching a short-term resistance near $3,347 – signaling a potential continuation of the bullish momentum in the short term.
1. Price Structure & Market Behavior After reaching a local top around $3,347–$3,350, gold entered a clear downtrend.
However, the breakout of the descending trendline (yellow line) with solid bullish candles is a strong reversal signal.
The market has formed higher highs and higher lows with strong bullish candles, confirming a V-shape reversal pattern from the bottom zone.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels Immediate resistance: $3,347–$3,350 – previous rejection zone.
Short-term support: $3,308 – newly broken resistance now acting as support.
Major support: $3,263 – previous low with strong bullish bounce, highlighting significant buyer interest.
3. Suggested Trading Strategy Given the strong breakout and bullish trend structure, traders may consider a buy-the-dip strategy around $3,308–$3,315 on potential pullbacks.
Stop-loss should be placed below $3,263 to protect against false breakouts.
Short-term take-profit targets can be set at $3,350–$3,360. If this level breaks, extended targets could reach $3,375.
Volume & Momentum Volume is increasing along with price, confirming strong buyer participation.
Bullish candles are closing near highs, showing weak selling pressure and suggesting the uptrend may continue.
Conclusion: Gold has resumed a short-term uptrend after breaking its previous downtrend. Traders should favor bullish setups and look for pullbacks to enter at better prices. Watch the $3,347 zone closely – if gold breaks and holds above it, further upside is likely.
Gold technical analysis and operation suggestionsGold technical analysis and operation suggestions
Market review:
Yesterday, gold showed a bottoming-out and rebounding trend. It quickly dropped to 3250 in the Asian session and then stabilized and rebounded. It rose in the European and US sessions, reaching a high of 3296 before falling under pressure. After the US session stepped back to 3270 for the second time to confirm support, it accelerated to rise, breaking through the 3300 integer mark. The daily line closed with a bottoming-out and rebounding, indicating that the 3250 support is effective, and the short-term adjustment may come to an end.
Current trend:
Gold prices continued to rebound after opening today, and now hit the 3320 line. It is necessary to pay attention to the 3324 long-short watershed pressure. If it breaks through effectively, it will confirm the reversal, and you can step back and follow up with long orders; on the contrary, if it falls under pressure, consider arranging short orders at high levels.
Technical points:
4-hour chart: 3324 is the key long-short watershed, and the support below is 3295-3301 (yesterday's resistance conversion position).
Operation idea: high short and low long within the range, follow up after breaking through 3324.
Operation strategy:
Short order: 3321-24 light position short, stop loss 3332, target 3295-3301, hold after breaking down.
Long order: 3295-3301 stabilizes and goes long, stop loss 3287, target 3320-24, hold after breaking through.
Gold bulls rise, continue to go long after falling backBecause it broke through the key suppression of 3324, we can go long on the contrary. The upper long position target is 3348. Although many people insist on being bearish, we must grasp the trend of the market and analyze it with technical aspects as the main and news as the auxiliary. At present, long orders are already profitable. Be a person who makes comprehensive judgments and don’t be at a loss about market analysis because of stop loss. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me!
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper focus is on the 3345 line of pressure, the lower short-term support is around 3314-3316, and the key support is 3295-3301. The overall support is based on this range to maintain the main tone of low-multiple participation. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold is long at 3316-24, and it will be long at 3295-3303 when it falls back, with a stop loss at 3293 and a target at 3348. If it breaks, continue to hold;
Gold Breaks Key Resistance — Bullish Spike in FormationGold dropped to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, aligning with the long-term ascending trendline, where it showed a strong bullish rejection.
Currently, price is breaking out of the descending channel and the 200 SMA, and is beginning to form a potential bullish spike formation.
If this pattern completes and breaks to the upside, we would have three confluencing technical signals pointing to a possible target area around $3,425.881.
📌 I’ll wait for a confirmed breakout of the bullish spike to look for long entries.
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is trading near our sell entry at 33192, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 3297.07, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 3350.85, which is a swing high resistance.
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The latest analysis and layout of gold in July made a good start📰 News information:
1. Geopolitical situation
2. PMI data
📈 Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, we gave the idea of looking at the upper resistance of 3310-3320. The 4H pressure is still at 3327. As long as this key resistance level is not effectively broken, gold will fall again. On the contrary, if it stabilizes above 3327, the trend may reverse. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance of 3327. If it is not broken, you can short with a light position. If it falls below 3300-3290, consider going long.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3310-3320
TP 3305-3300
BUY 3300-3290
TP 3310-3320-3350
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD