Gold Buy- Go for buy if setup given
- just a small trade
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow
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GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSDGold (XAU/USD) has shown bullish momentum, maintaining higher lows and holding above a significant support zone around 3333. A clean breakout above 3335 with sustained volume suggests further upside potential, targeting resistance levels at 3345 and beyond. Risk-reward ratio remains favorable if price action sustaiXAU/USD Trade Analysis – Buy Setup
📌 Trade Idea: Long position on Gold (XAU/USD)
Bias: Bullish continuation after price action confirmation near support
🔹 Entry Zone:
3337 – 3333 (Ideal buy range within key support zone)
🔹 Stop Loss:
3323.00 (Placed below key support/structure to manage risk)
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3345
🎯 TP2: 3350
🎯 TP3: 3355
ns above the 3333 zone.
Report - 25, June 2025Ceasefire Fragility and Unprecedented Presidential Posture
President Donald Trump has publicly rebuked both Israel and Iran in an attempt to preserve a ceasefire brokered after 12 days of escalating conflict. His unfiltered criticism — including an unusually blunt quote characterizing both sides as having “fought so long... they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing” — signals rising frustration with maintaining stability in a region long considered a geopolitical powder keg.
While initially celebrating the ceasefire and claiming victory over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Trump’s stance shifted dramatically in response to renewed missile exchanges. Notably, after Iran fired three missiles post-ceasefire (causing no casualties), Israel retaliated by targeting an Iranian radar station, prompting a direct command from Trump via social media:
“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS… BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Despite ongoing minor violations, both sides have reportedly heeded Washington’s demands, with Israel claiming its military objectives were fulfilled. The ceasefire currently holds, but remains vulnerable to provocation or miscalculation.
Strategic Realignment: U-Turn on Iran Sanctions and Oil Trade
In a major policy reversal, Trump has authorized China to resume importing oil from Iran — effectively dismantling months of sanctions enforcement against Chinese refiners and shipping intermediaries. This shift is tied to two strategic aims:
Stabilize energy markets post-conflict to mitigate inflationary spikes.
Incentivize Iran's continued adherence to the ceasefire.
However, this decision directly contradicts Trump’s earlier "maximum pressure" stance and introduces credibility risk for U.S. sanctions policy. Analysts remain cautious, noting that formal sanction relief has not been legislatively confirmed. If sustained, this move could:
Provide Tehran with critical cash flow (~1.5M bpd exports)
Reduce U.S. leverage in future nuclear negotiations
Empower China in energy diplomacy as a balancing counterweight
NATO Dynamics: Trump Demands 5% Defense Spending
Trump’s NATO agenda has drawn both praise and backlash. In a leaked message, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte credited Trump with forcing European nations to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP:
“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”
While major powers like Germany, France, and the UK are reportedly complying, Spain has refused — risking a public rift. Trump has cast doubt on Article 5 commitments by questioning its interpretation, though he reiterated support for allies “as friends.”
This episode illustrates the dual nature of Trump’s strategy:
A transactional, cost-focused defense model
Willingness to weaponize public embarrassment for leverage
Market Response: Relief Rally, Oil Retreats, and Risk-On Rotation
Markets cheered the ceasefire with a strong rotation into risk assets and away from geopolitical hedges:
Brent crude fell 5.8% to $67.37/barrel, reflecting de-escalation and confidence in uninterrupted Strait of Hormuz access.
S&P 500 hit its highest level since February, rising 1.1%.
Nasdaq jumped 1.4% on renewed tech appetite.
Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1.1%, while FTSE 100 lagged (flat) due to energy exposure (BP –4.8%, Shell –3.7%).
Currency and bond markets responded accordingly:
USD Index –0.5% as safe-haven demand waned
GBP surged to $1.365, highest since 2022
Gold fell 1.6% to $3,314/oz — its sharpest drop in a month
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.30%, on stronger economic sentiment and Powell’s congressional testimony
GOLD. Daily Timeframe overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
Daily Timeframe
Market phase : sideways. Seller's initiative.
Boundaries marked with black lines.
Gold followed an alternative scenario from the previous review toward 3435. The buyer played out the 8-9 vector of the range on the daily timeframe, and now the initiative has shifted to the seller. The seller's targets are 3245 and 3201 — areas to watch for potential buy patterns aiming for a new ATH. The price might get stuck in the 3293–3271 zone. If a strong buyer reaction occurs, a reversal may happen in this range.
The ideal area to look for buy patterns is around 3201.
Selling is risky.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Report - June 24, 2025Geopolitical Flashpoint: U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Temporary Pause
After weeks of escalating military engagement, President Trump has declared a phased cease-fire between Iran and Israel, effective June 25. While Israel has not officially confirmed, both sides reportedly agreed to halt attacks if met with mutual restraint. Iran launched 14 missiles toward Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites; 13 were intercepted with no casualties. This symbolic attack was designed as a “face-saving” gesture, avoiding a broader conflict or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint.
Market Impact:
Oil dropped sharply (WTI -7.2%, Brent -6.8%) as war premium unwound.
Equities rallied (S&P 500 +1%, Dow +0.9%) on relief from escalation.
Risk-off unwound modestly with global equities rising in Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.8%).
Strategic Implications:
A durable cease-fire is far from guaranteed. Israel may not comply long-term.
Iran’s restraint signals desire for diplomatic off-ramp, supported by Qatari mediation.
U.S. avoided further retaliation, citing the limited scope of Iran’s action as justification.
Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and the ‘Powell Trap’
President Trump has intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding sharp rate cuts (targeting 1–2%). With inflation still near 2.6% Core PCE and tariffs starting to filter through consumer prices, the Fed risks its credibility if it yields to political pressure.
Fed Dynamics:
Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller (Trump appointees) support July cuts due to labor concerns.
Powell testifies before Congress this week, expected to defend central bank independence.
Market Reaction:
10-Year yield fell to 4.32%, 2-Year to 3.83%.
FedWatch: 22.7% chance of July cut, up from 14.5% pre-Iran strike.
Strategic Outlook:
Fed faces a no-win scenario: cut and risk inflation, or hold and face political firestorm.
Political pressure ahead of Powell’s February 2026 term expiry is rising—Trump may be shaping a post-Powell Fed regime.
U.S. Housing Market Update: Rising Inventory, Stalled Buyers
May existing-home sales rose +0.8% MoM (vs. -1.3% est.) but remain near record lows (4.03M annualized). Inventory rose +6.2% MoM, +20.3% YoY, yet affordability remains a major obstacle.
Median price: $422,800 (near record), +1.3% YoY.
Mortgage rates >6.5%, limiting buyer participation.
Price cuts surged (1 in 4 listings), showing seller capitulation.
Homes are sitting longer (27 days on market vs. 24 a year ago).
Implications:
Affordability gap persists: $100k income now affords just 37% of listings vs. 65% in 2018.
Selective regional strength: Midwest/Northeast stronger than Sunbelt/Southwest.
Energy Sector: Fragile but Stabilized for Now
Iran’s deliberate avoidance of energy infrastructure has led to a collapse in crude prices post-spike. However, risks remain:
Strait of Hormuz still vulnerable; closure would cut ~20% of global oil supply.
WTI pulled back to $75.67, Brent at $78.89—still ~10% higher than pre-June levels.
Trump publicly pressuring oil markets to keep prices low, signaling political discomfort with oil shocks during re-election year.
Energy Equities:
Exxon -2.6%, Halliburton -6.8% — oil-linked stocks lagged.
European oil names may rally if prices stay elevated: 7.8% EPS boost with +20% oil (Panmure).
Gold To Go In BuyGold prices tumbled early on Tuesday with safe-haven demand easing as the United States and Iran backed away from hostilities while Tehran reached a shaky ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$72.60 to US$3,322.40 per ounce, 3.8% below the June 13 record high of US$3,452.80.
Continue to short after the rebound on 6.24Judging from the current market trend, the upper short-term resistance is around 3343-48, the lower short-term support is around 3310-15, the short-term long-short strength watershed is 3300-05, the daily level is under pressure and continues to see suppression and adjustment, and the main tone should actually be rebound shorting.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold rebounds to 3343-48 and shorts, stop loss 3356, target 3317-3323, continue to hold if it breaks;
Gold Outlook: Navigating Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Mixed Technical Analysis
The gold spot price recently tested resistance near $3,451, marking a significant swing high. Following this, the price has pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $3,353, which currently acts as critical support. The daily chart shows gold holding above its 50-day weighted moving average (WMA) around $3,250, with an upward sloping trendline reinforcing near-term bullish support.
If gold decisively stays below the $3,353 support, it may test lower levels near $3,293 and potentially the trendline support near $3,228. Such a move could signal a short-term bearish phase, driven by easing geopolitical fears or strengthening US dollar sentiment.
• Support Levels: $3,353 (61.8% Fib), $3,293 (100% Fib retracement), $3,228 (141.4% extension).
• Resistance Levels: $3,451 (recent high), with a possible challenge above to $3,500 psychological level.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing neutral at 48, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram indicates weakening bullish momentum, while stochastic oscillators are trending lower but not yet in oversold territory, implying potential for further correction before resuming upward movement.
Conversely, a rebound above $3,451 could trigger fresh bullish momentum targeting $3,500 and beyond.
XAUUSD:Go long
The uncertainties in multiple dimensions such as geopolitics, US monetary policy and tariffs have significantly increased, which will bring more volatility to the gold price.
Today's market trend is still mainly volatile. During the Asian session, there has been a deep pullback. 3316 is the short-term support. It is expected that there will be a rebound in the future.
Trading strategy:
BUY@3325-30
TP:3345-50
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Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis - 24 June 2025📊 4-Hour Chart: Supply & Demand Structure
1. 📐 Market Structure & Bias
Gold has bounced off the $3,340–3,350 demand area multiple times—confirming a strong support structure on the 4H timeframe .
Following this bounce, gold made a higher-low, reinforcing a bullish trend.
Overall bias remains bullish, as long as prices hold above the $3,340 region. A break below this zone may bring deeper correction.
2. 🔍 Demand Zones (Buy Areas)
Zone A – $3,340 to $3,350
Comes with trendline support and prior consolidation.
Volume and price action confirm institutional buying interest.
Zone B – $3,300 to $3,310
A more significant base zone for deeper pullbacks or additional liquidity running.
3. ⚠️ Supply Zones (Sell Areas)
Zone C – $3,380 to $3,390
Shallow zone where recent rallies have stalled—ideal for supply fade strategies.
Zone D – $3,400 to $3,410
Major resistance zone—historical retracement area with institutional selling.
🔍 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Entry Zones (Aligned with 4H Bias)
Below are premium-level intraday buy setups made for quick execution within the bullish structure:
Entry Type Zone ($) Description
1. Buy the Dip 3,340 – 3,345 Touches 4H demand + trendline — watch for bullish rejection wicks or volume pickup.
2. Quick Dip Buy 3,350 – 3,355 Opportunistic entry higher in demand zone — quicker reentries with lighter pullback.
3. Deep Bounce 3,300 – 3,310 For deeper intraday swings only—requires strong confirmation from lower timeframes.
(Optional) Sell Supply Fade 3,380 – 3,390 Aggressive fade only if strong price rejection appears—caution advised.
Tips for Entry Confirmation:
Look for bullish pin bars, engulfing candles, volume confirmation, or trendline bounces within these zones. Only trade entries with clear price action confirmation.
Gold eased slightly as Middle East risk receded
Safe-haven demand for gold eased slightly as geopolitical risks in the Middle East subsided. However, the downside was limited by a weaker dollar. Market sentiment around a potential escalation in regional tensions also softened, particularly as the likelihood of a Strait of Hormuz blockade declined despite preemptive US strikes. Looking ahead, gold prices may exhibit heightened volatility depending on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming congressional testimony and the release of the May PCE inflation data.
XAUUSD failed to reenter the ascending channel and retreated below 3360. EMA21 is narrowing its gap with EMA78, signaling a potential shift toward a bearish structure. If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 3320, the price may decline further to 3280. Conversely, if XAUUSD reenters the channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 3400.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSD is bullishFrom the chart, you will understand that xauusd is about to buy
Reasons;
1; In daily timeframe, you will see a hammer candlestick
2; Falling wedge pattern breakout
3; In 4 hrs, Third trendline touch
4; In lower timeframe, you will see a double bottom before the falling wedge breakout
XAUUSD and USOILHesitation Geopolitical factors have led to the escalation of relations between several countries. The Middle East is in chaos. Although this is a trading market, the relationship between the two is too close. This is why the Asian market XAUUSD reached a high of 3400.
But it is not stable. Because after the news that stimulated the rise in gold prices over the weekend, there were some negative news. For example, peace talks, time differences, negotiations and other factors have eased the tense atmosphere. Then the gold price fell with the trend, reaching a low of 3347.
From the overall situation, the market still has the momentum to rise in the short term. But this depends on Iran's response. Including the impact of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the key factor in the rise or fall of oil prices. Investors with larger funds can arrange long orders in advance.
The view on XAUUSD is to buy at low levels. The impact of geopolitics is too huge. On the basis of interest rate cuts, buying is the key to profit. But everyone's financial situation is different, so when trading, remember to control the position ratio. Prevent trading errors from leading to account liquidation.