GOLD trade ideas
Weekly outlook #XAUUSD #GOLDprice took IRL (Internal Range Liquidity) beautifully from that monthly FVG zone. That was a key rejection area and it played out with a strong bullish bounce.
Now if this momentum continues and we get a clean break of recent highs (especially around 3260–3346 zone), then yes — ERL (External Range Liquidity) at All-Time High (ATH) could be next in line.
It’s all aligning:
Price respected monthly demand
Formed bullish structure on lower timeframes
Pullbacks getting shallower (sign of strength)
Volume picking up with each leg up
Next target — ATH liquidity sweep and as you said before, maybe even Fibonacci extension to 4000 isn’t crazy if the higher timeframe structure allows it.
#DYOR.
#XAUUSD
#GOLD
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 3,181.51 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3,217.79 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAU/USD (Gold) – 2H Chart Analysis (May 16, 2025)🔍 Key Observations:
1. Descending Channel (Bearish Trendline)
Price has been respecting a downward-sloping parallel channel (red lines).
It recently broke out above the upper trendline of the descending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal or at least a corrective move upward.
2. Retest of Broken Structure
After breaking the channel, the price retested the previous structure area (highlighted grey zone) and showed rejection.
This structure overlaps with a previous support-turned-resistance zone, giving more weight to its importance.
3. Bullish Impulse and Pullback
A strong bullish candle broke out of the channel followed by a minor pullback.
The latest pullback seems to be retesting a demand zone, indicating possible bullish continuation.
4. Risk/Reward Setup
A long position has been marked:
Entry: Around $3,171
Stop Loss: Near $3,112.58
Take Profit: ~$3,435.91
This represents a high R:R trade, approximately 1:4.5 to 1:5.
🧠 Interpretation & Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Bias (Primary)
Breakout from descending channel.
Retest of structure and rejection.
Demand zone holding.
Targeting previous swing highs near $3,435.
🟢 A close above $3,200+ could confirm bullish momentum continuation.
⚠️ Bearish Contingency
If price fails to hold $3,170 zone and breaks below $3,112, the setup would be invalidated.
Could resume downward trend inside the original descending channel.
🔄 Confluence Factors Supporting Bullish Trade:
Break and retest of descending channel.
Structure + demand zone convergence.
Strong bullish price action and volume during breakout.
Good risk-to-reward ratio.
Weak US economic data is new impetus for gold's rally🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold is struggling to build on the solid rebound seen the previous day from its lowest level in over a month, consolidating below the $3,250 mark during the Asian session amid optimism surrounding a U.S.-China trade deal. Meanwhile, signs of easing inflation in the U.S. and weaker consumer spending data have strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. This outlook has pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower and weakened the U.S. dollar, providing support for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Personal opinion:
➡️ When the information about the US-China trade negotiations has calmed down, gold found new momentum when the US economic data was not good, so in the short term, the gold price may maintain its upward momentum
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support levels and Fibonacci combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell Gold 3281 - 3278
❌SL: 3285 | ✅TP: 3272 - 3268 - 3263
👉Buy Gold 3203 - 3206
❌SL: 3199 | ✅TP: 3210 - 3214 - 3219
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Bulls Reloading from 3239 | Break-and-Retest Long SetupGold (XAUUSD) is still riding a solid bullish wave after yesterday's strong move. The price surged sharply and is now setting up a classic break-and-retest pattern around the 3239 demand zone on the 30-minute chart.
After hitting a local peak, the price pulled back to the previous breakout level, creating a potential re-entry point for buyers. This movement fits well with the intraday structure and momentum, making it a high-probability continuation setup.
As long as the 3231 support level holds, the bullish outlook stays intact. The rejection wick from this area shows early signs of buyer interest, and a small bullish candle confirmation from here could spark another upward move.
🔹 Trade Plan:
Entry: 3239 (retest of broken structure)
Stop Loss: 3231 (below rejection wick & minor support)
Take Profits:
TP1: 3248 – minor resistance
TP2: 3255 – price imbalance fill
TP3: 3264 – extended target / top liquidity zone
Gold Wave Analysis – 15 May 2025
- Gold reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3300.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support zone located between the pivotal support level 3155.00 (former top of the impulse wave 3 from the start of April), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support zone stopped the C-wave of the previous medium-term ABC correction (4) from the middle of April.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the oversold daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3300.00.
XAU / USD 4 hour chartHello traders. My last analysis was pretty spot on. I missed the trade as I was away from the charts. Saying that, I have marked the current area of interest. Although it is later in the trading day than when I normally sign off, I at least wanted to show the area we need a break and close out of to see if we push up a bit more, or reject and push down. Volume is not huge at this time of the day. Trade the trend, Big G gets my thanks. Happy Thursday and thanks for checking out my chart.
Gold buyWhile most are zoomed into noise, I’m zoomed into structure.
After a sharp selloff into a key demand zone (look left), price is now showing signs of absorption below a major support line (3,166.805).
This is a textbook example of a Spring :
Stop Hunt + Structural Reclaim + Demand Holding
I’m watching for a 4H bullish break + retest within this compression wedge.
If buyers step in, we could see price reclaim 3,300+ and aim for 3,490 short-term, with a possible continuation higher if momentum sustains.
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What I’m Looking For:
Break above descending trendline (red)
Retest + bullish engulfing OR accumulation pattern on 1H
Targets: 3,400 to 3,490 zone
Invalidation: Clean close below 3,110 zone
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Higher timeframes show strong historical buying interest around this level.
We’re either early… or we’re the liquidity.
I know which side I’m choosing. I'm already long!
XAUUSD Analysis – Gold Bears Might Take Over Soon!Gold has shown strong bullish momentum in recent months, but it looks like the bulls may be losing steam. Here's a detailed breakdown of the current technical setup:
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Key Zones to Watch:
Major Supply Zone (Resistance): 3314.60 – 3400.00
Gold got rejected multiple times at this level, forming a solid resistance and visible supply area. Strong bearish candles are forming after testing this zone.
Immediate Support: 2976.00
Price previously bounced off this level, but if the bears maintain control, we could see this level tested again soon.
Major Demand Zone: 2614.36 – This zone provided a strong base for the last bullish rally. If 2976 breaks, this could be our next target zone.
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Bearish Signals:
Multiple rejections at the supply zone
Bearish engulfing and momentum candlesticks forming
Lower highs starting to form
Breakdown potential towards 2976 and possibly 2614
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Possible Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation:
A daily close below 2976 could trigger a sharp drop toward 2614, especially with upcoming U.S. economic data (highlighted by the icon on the chart).
Look for volume confirmation and retest before entering shorts.
2. Bullish Defense (Invalidation):
If bulls defend 2976 strongly and reclaim 3314 with volume, we might see another run at the highs.
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My Bias: Bearish below 2976
Trade Idea:
Short on pullback if price closes below 2976
SL above recent highs
TP at 2614 zone
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What’s Your Take?
Are you buying the dip or riding the bearish wave? Drop your analysis or chart in the comments!
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #PriceAction #Forex #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold Price at Critical Resistance – Will the Downtrend ContinueTechnical Analysis of the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-Hour Chart
1. Current Trend:
The price is moving within a descending channel, indicating a dominant bearish trend.
This pattern reflects consistent lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained selling pressure.
2. Resistance Zone (3,150 - 3,175):
The price has just touched the upper boundary of the channel, aligning with a significant resistance area around 3,150 - 3,175.
This zone is reinforced by previous price reactions, making it a critical decision point for traders.
3. Potential Rejection and Continuation:
The dotted blue path on the chart suggests a possible pullback from this resistance.
If the price fails to break above this level, it may trigger another wave of selling, pushing the price toward the lower channel boundary.
4. Key Support Levels:
Immediate support lies around 3,125, with a more substantial floor at 3,100 if the bearish momentum continues.
Gold outlookGold is expected to remain range-bound between 3160 and 3400 in the near term. A decisive breakout above the 3400 resistance level could signal the start of a new bullish phase, potentially establishing a higher high. However, if price action is rejected from this resistance zone, we may witness a retracement toward the next support level, suggesting a continuation of the current consolidation pattern.
XAUUSD Bearish Pennant Breakdown | Retest in Play – 3090 TargetGold (XAUUSD) has been in a corrective phase after reaching the resistance zone around 3370–3420 USD, where the price was previously rejected with strong selling pressure. Over the past sessions, price action has developed into a Bearish Pennant pattern, typically seen as a continuation pattern in a downtrend.
Following a sharp drop from the highs, the price consolidated between converging trendlines, creating lower highs and higher lows. This structure resembles a pennant or triangle formation, which traders often interpret as a pause before the next leg down.
🔍 Key Technical Features:
1. Resistance Zone (3370–3420 USD):
Strong institutional selling observed here.
Multiple rejections confirm this zone as a significant supply area.
This area also serves as a risk management reference point for stop-loss placement.
2. Support Zone (3210–3230 USD):
The price bounced multiple times from this level, making it a key demand area.
A clean break below this zone would confirm bearish continuation.
3. Trendline Resistance:
A descending trendline has been respected consistently since May 8.
Price recently retested this trendline after a minor pullback, aligning with the bearish pennant structure.
4. Bearish Pennant Pattern:
Forms after a strong downward impulse.
The consolidation is narrowing within converging trendlines.
A breakdown with high volume typically leads to a continuation of the prior trend.
5. Breakout & Retest:
Price has already broken below the pennant's lower boundary.
The current move is a retest of the broken trendline—a classic setup for entering a short position upon rejection.
🎯 Bearish Target Projection:
The measured move from the pole of the pennant suggests a target around 3090 USD.
This level is derived by taking the height of the initial drop before the pennant and projecting it downward from the breakout point.
🛑 Stop Loss Strategy:
A conservative stop loss can be placed just above the 3370 USD resistance zone.
Alternatively, a tighter stop could be placed slightly above the trendline (~3240–3250) for aggressive entries, though this increases the risk of a false breakout.
✅ Trading Plan Summary:
Aspect Level / Detail
Entry Zone After retest & rejection (near 3230–3240 USD)
Target 3090 USD
Stop Loss Above 3370 USD
Risk-Reward Approx. 1:3 or higher
Pattern Type Bearish Pennant
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This is a textbook bearish continuation setup with strong confluences:
Trendline resistance
Bearish pennant formation
Breakdown with retest
Clear resistance and support zones for managing risk
If momentum sustains to the downside after the retest, we could see a swift drop toward 3090 USD, offering a favorable shorting opportunity for swing and intraday traders alike.
Always confirm with volume and candlestick confirmation before execution. Stay updated with fundamental drivers such as CPI, PPI, or FOMC comments, which can inject volatility.
Don't panic, gold will continue to fall.
Don't worry, dear traders, gold is still falling.
Two views remain unchanged:
1. After the trade talks between the United Kingdom and the United States and China are eased, Europe, the United States, Japan, the United States and Canada will follow suit, and the short-term tariffs will be eased. This wave of gold rise is actually affected by the increase in tariffs, so the ebb is also affected by the ebb of tariffs.
2. This agreement is only 90 days. In the long run, the tariff talks are only temporarily eased. Trade frictions have not been eliminated and will become more and more serious, so the logic of long-term gold rise has not changed.
From a technical point of view, it has been cyclical recently:
The cycles we often talk about have three forms, time, price, and trend.
Look at the recent market yourself:
1. The opening is a retracement.
2. The continuity of the European market is not high and the rebound is the main one.
3. The volatility of the US market did not continue.
4. It will retrace around noon.
I didn't say it, you didn't feel it, I said it, you can see if it is going this way recently.
The same is true today. The market fell in a cycle around the opening, and the hourly line was in a continuous negative trend. The rebound continued to be short.
1. A correction in a weak situation, a single positive line is enough.
2. If the low point of yesterday's noon is broken, it means that the retracement will continue.
3. In terms of position, this kind of continuous decline pattern can be shorted by referring to the continued decline position in 5 minutes or the hourly line turning positive and pulling back. The first resistance level is 3232-33.
4. The morning continuous decline, the watershed morning high.
5. Whether the European session can break the previous low point is the key to weakness.
6. Still pay attention to the cycle. The European session is weak, and the US session continues to be short after the rebound. If the 3200 line is broken, the European session will fluctuate, and the US session will still fluctuate, and it will be weak in the early morning.
7. In any case, it should be noted that the possibility of gold's short-term retreat is very high, and it is not the right time, especially for long-term, short-term does not matter.
Gold Intraday Buy Setup | Targeting $3,272 ZoneGold is forming a bullish intraday setup with price attempting a rebound from Ichimoku cloud support on the 30-min timeframe. A strong reaction near the lower boundary suggests buyers are stepping in.
🔹 Technical Highlights:
✅ Price bouncing from support
🎯 Defined Risk-to-Reward with SL at $3,216 and TP at $3,272
🔄 Bullish structure forming higher lows intraday
🔹 Fundamental Backdrop:
🏦 Weaker Dollar outlook and lower yields boosting gold
📉 Risk sentiment & geopolitical uncertainty add demand for safe havens
📌 Plan: Long above $3,234, SL at $3,215, TP around $3,270 — solid R:R setup for scalpers/day traders.