NFP data is positive, the bullish trend remains unchanged#XAUUSD
The current market, influenced by data such as NFP, remains bullish, even briefly pushing towards the 4H upper limit of 3350, reaching a high near 3354.📈
In the short term, gold still has upward momentum and could even reach the previous high resistance level near 3375.🐂
Currently, gold is undergoing a technical correction and needs to begin a pullback to accumulate more bullish momentum, giving traders who previously missed the opportunity to get on board.🚀
As resistance continues to rise, support below will also rise. 📊If gold retreats below 3335-3315, consider going long.📈
🚀 SELL 3335-3315
🚀 TP 3350-3375
GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 1, 2025
Yesterday's trading session, gold prices recovered to the 3315 area and then continued to decrease to the 3281 area. Currently, gold prices are fluctuating quite unpredictably due to the impact of tariff news and investor confidence.
Basic news: The Federal Reserve FED continues to maintain the federal funds benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with policy since 2025. Chairman Powell did not give any signal about the next interest rate cut on September 16 - 17.
Technical analysis: After falling sharply to the 3269 area, gold prices are showing signs of recovery. In the current downtrend channel, there has been a higher bottom than the bottom at H1. We can see that if the bullish pattern at H1 is confirmed, combined with the reversal candlestick appearing at H4, the possibility of gold bouncing back to reach the resistance area of 3330, even 3350 is completely possible. In the weekend trading session, we will wait at the support zones to trade.
Important price zones today: 3280 - 3285 and 3269 - 3274.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3283 - 3285
SL 3280
TP 3288 - 3300 - 3310 - 3330.
Plan 2: BUY XAUSD zone 3269 - 3271
SL 3266
TP 3274 - 3284 - 3300 - 3320.
Wish you a safe, favorable and profitable trading day.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
Non-farm payrolls are coming. Will it trigger the market?On Thursday, the US dollar index briefly rallied after the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, crossing the 100 mark for the first time in two months. This marked the sixth consecutive trading day of gains and the first monthly gain since 2025.
Spot gold rebounded as risk aversion lingered amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff deadline, reaching a high of around $3,315, but its intraday gains narrowed after the release of the PCE data.
The dollar has already firmly established itself above the 100 mark on the daily chart, so the next target is likely to be between 101.5 and 102.0. Currently, support levels on the daily chart are visible at 99.5 and 99.0.
The gold market is currently consolidating in the 3315-3275 range. However, if the dollar rises again, Quaid believes gold prices could fall below 3275.
On the daily chart, if it falls below 3275, the price would likely be around 3250. If 3250 falls below, the market could test 3200. However, the possibility of a consolidation between 3315 and 3275 remains undisputed.
Before the release of the non-farm payroll data, scalping within this consolidation range is advisable. However, the risk is relatively high, so please take profits in time.
Will gold prices continue to fall on August 1st?
Core Logic Analysis
Negative factors dominate
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance: keeping interest rates unchanged and Powell suppressing expectations of a rate cut have weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Strong economic data: ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the upcoming PCE and non-farm payroll data, market expectations of an early Fed rate cut have cooled.
Technical Breakdown: Gold prices fell below the key support level of $3,300, hitting a new monthly low. A large weekly bearish candlestick chart indicates bearish dominance.
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 3315 (hourly rebound resistance), 3333 (previous high and daily resistance).
Support: 3280-3290 (short-term), 3250-3245 (strong monthly support).
Potential Risks
Unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data or escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger a short-term rebound, but a break above 3330 is required to reverse the downward trend.
Today's Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trading
Primarily short at highs: Short lightly on a rebound to 3310-3315, stop loss at 3325, target 3290-3280.
Aggressive Short: Add to short positions if the price reaches 3330-3333, stop loss at 3340, target 3280.
Cautious Long: Try a long position on the first touch of 3250-3245, stop loss at 3235, target 3270-3280 (quick in and out).
Mid-term Strategy
If the monthly line closes below 3250, shorting at high levels can be continued in August, targeting the 3150-3100 range.
If the gold price rebounds above 3350 after the non-farm payrolls, the trend needs to be reassessed.
Events to Watch
Data:
Non-farm payroll report on Friday (if the data exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall further).
US June PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve inflation indicator).
Technical Signal:
A daily close below 3250 would confirm a medium-term downtrend.
Observe the recapture of the 3300 level, which serves as a dividing line between bulls and bears.
Summary
Gold is currently in a bearish phase. Prioritize shorting on rallies, but be wary of unexpected data fluctuations. If the mid-line breaks below 3250, the market could target the 3000-3100 range. Conversely, if it holds above 3330, strategy adjustments will be necessary. Strictly stop loss and control risks.
XAUUSD GOLD The XAUUSD Gold price is approaching our target zone, where it will find strong support in EMA 100 if it does not comply with LSOB in small timeframes. In the 4H timeframe, the price has been making lower lows so far, so I recommend waiting a little and entering based on the daily timeframe from the lower zone.
GOLD: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,328.24 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,318.05..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
gold trading strategy for todayThe price is 3,400 USD/ounce. The main reason is believed to be due to the weaker-than-expected US labor market, increasing the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates, thereby promoting the increase of this precious metal as investors seek gold as a safe haven.
Some analysts note that, since reaching a historical peak of 3,500 USD on April 22, 2025, the gold price has fluctuated in a narrow range from 3,180 to 3,400 USD/ounce. Based on macro assumptions, analysts predict that the gold price may reach 3,850 USD/ounce in the second quarter of 2026 and the current period is like "compressing the spring" - preparing for a strong increase in gold prices in the near future.
Meanwhile, Citigroup (a US multinational financial group) has just raised its forecast for world gold prices to $3,500/ounce in the next 3 months, $3,300/ounce for 6-2025, $3,300 - $3,600/ounce. The main reasons include concerns about US economic growth, high inflation due to US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and a weakening USD.
Gold Holds the Trendline - Eyes on the Range HighGold remains range-bound but is climbing off the range low with strong bullish momentum. Price is respecting the trendline and could stage a move toward the top of the range. A minor pullback may offer the best entry opportunity before momentum takes it higher. This setup favors buying the dip as long as the trendline holds.
XAU
Gold (XAU/USD) – Bullish Breakout and Key Resistance Zones Ahead
Gold has recently broken out of a descending channel on the 4H timeframe, indicating a potential shift in market structure. The breakout was strong and clean, suggesting momentum is building up for further upside.
Price is now approaching a series of key resistance zones, which I’ve marked as potential short-term targets:
3387.025
3406.948 – 3409.846
3421.203
As long as price holds above the breakout zone and maintains support around 3318–3330, the bullish scenario remains intact. A rejection from the 3271 demand zone also supports this move.
I'll be watching price action closely near each resistance for signs of continuation or reversal. This idea is based purely on technical analysis and market structure.
ATH - Not in my watch for nowAs mentioned in my last post, Gold won't be pushing to break ATH unless there's an unusual catalyst that attracts it. Range bound trading is still the play, especially as we're coming into August. Save your ammunition for the Fall season, reduce your position and trade conservatively to build your equity safely. The USD has some room leg room to push higher in the short term that should hinder the yellow metal to go full bore.
XAU/USD 01 August 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart: