Gold MarketThe Trump administration's "steel tariffs" caused gold to surge to around 3390. Yesterday's bottom of the correction touched around 3330. The current trend analysis shows that there are bullish protection actions at 3340 points. Today, you can go long based on 3344 as the support point.
The ADP data will be released tonight. The 4-hour US dollar fell and went out of the five-wave decline. The typical five-wave decline may have to rebound. If the US dollar surges, the gold 3340 support level may not be able to protect.
Today's strategy is still mainly long. However, if it fails to break through 3370 and falls below 3340, then you must pay attention to stop loss.
BUY: around 3350
SL: 3340
TP: 3370-3400
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
Gold delivering excellent returnsTechnical analysis: As expected yesterday’s session local Higher High’s rejection pushed Gold aggressively towards my take Profit of #3,381.80 to form #1-session Low’s. Traders witnessed Technically driven slide after Fundamentally driven uptrend which I always look to utilize as Shorting is excellent way to make Profits on Gold (mostly Technically on the way down lately from Fundamental upside spikes) since there is lot’s more Technical pointers and traffic in Selling than Buying, as said Bull leaps are usually Fundamentally driven on Gold. Hourly 4 chart is approaching #7-session old Neutral Rectangle however Hourly 4 chart may shake off the last of it’s Neutral values and align with semi-Bullish Fundamental perspective which is approaching #3,400.80 benchmark and local Low's rejection may deliver Buying signal. DX rebounded strongly off it’s local Low’s and is now in the process of seeking the Resistance. (#1W) Weekly chart’s candle is near a (# +1.91%) close, effectively limiting the losses / however on the other side, Buying pressure is not so strong as it was past few Months and that’s why you witness such Low Volume movements and aggressive Bearish reversals. Monthly candle is now at (# -0.59%) and the goal is to rise further by closing, extending the Bullish continuity. That is why Traders should observe their gains / losses on a Monthly basis, as despite the Volatility on smaller timeframes as this one, the Medium / Long-term patterns always prevail.
My position: I have Sold Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,395.80 towards #3,382.80 Support after #3,400.80 benchmark rejected the Price-action and that order delivered biggest Profit on single position in my entire Trading career if I may say (#124.000 Eur). I have re-Bought Gold twice on #3,342.80 and #3,346.80 and closed both orders on #3,354.80 which was excellent way to finish a session. Keep in mind that NFP is ahead on the calendar and keep in mind that I do expect upside surprise which may fuel more Selling action on Gold. However if NFP delivers downside surprise, I am confident that #3,400.80 benchmark will be tested on news aftermath.
XAUUSD (GOLD)XAUUSD Technical Analysis – 1H Timeframe
According to the Elliott Wave structure, wave 5 appears to have completed, and price is now entering a corrective phase. The break of the rising trendline and resistance zone signals the possibility of a new downward move. Key support levels lie around 3299 and then 3165 USD
Gold Consolidation Formed as Strong moveGold is currently supported by the weakness in the US Dollar, driven by rising trade tensions. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium are coming into effect today, and President Trump's ultimatum to trade partners is set to expire, increasing uncertainty in global markets.
From a technical perspective, there is a possibility of a false breakout near the 3366 level. If this level fails to hold, gold may test the 3370 liquidity zone, where significant buy-side interest could emerge.
Resistance zone 3400 / 3420
Support Levels 3365 / 3350
you can find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more better analysis Thanks Traders.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 6Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3412, support below 3322
Four-hour chart resistance 3367, support below 3350
One-hour chart resistance 3374, support below 3360
Gold news analysis: Gold fell sharply during the US trading session on Thursday. Although the slight rebound of the US dollar limited the upside of gold, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, lower US bond yields, US fiscal concerns, and trade and geopolitical risks still supported the strong gold price. The market is in a wait-and-see mood, with the focus on the upcoming NFP employment report. Technical indicators show that gold still has short-term upside potential, and breaking through $3385 will open up further upside space. The instability of the global economic environment, especially the unexpected contraction of the US service industry, the sluggish employment data and the impact of the Trump administration's new tariff policy, has provided strong impetus for the rise of gold. At the same time, the tension between major powers, the progress of EU-US trade negotiations, and the market's expectations of Fed rate cuts have further ignited the enthusiasm of the gold market, and the possibility of gold prices rising to the 3400 mark has increased.
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the first-line support of 3350-3322, and the pressure above focuses on the one-hour level 3374 and the four-hour level 3412. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line is 3350. Before the four-hour level falls below this position, continue to maintain the rhythm of buying on dips and look to 3412-3450-3500.
Buying strategy after breakthrough:
Buy: 3375near SL:3370
Buy: 3388near SL:3383
Buy: 3400near SL:3395
Trading Signal for GOLD sell below $3,387 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)Early in the European session, gold traded around 3,368, showing signs of exhaustion after reaching the weekly high of 3,403. We could expect a technical correction to occur in the coming hours toward the 21SMA or the 7/8 Murray EMA at 3,355.
If the bearish momentum is maintained, gold could continue its decline. To do so, we should wait for confirmation below 3,350, then the price could reach the 200 EMA at 3,277. Around that area, gold left a gap on May 29, and it is likely that it could be filled.
On that other hand, if bullish strength prevails, we could expect a technical rebound around 3,35. This area has provided gold with a good rebounding point in the past, and this time the price reach the 8/8 Murray at 3,437.
This week, US employment data will be released, which could trigger strong volatility. This, in turn, could cause the price of gold to reach 3,437 or fall towards 3,270.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 3,387 with a target at 3,359. Around this area, we should wait for a breakout or a technical rebound to occur before making a new decision.
GOLD (XAU/USD) TRADE IDEA Buy Now at: 3365GOLD (XAU/USD) TRADE IDEA
Buy Now at: 3365
🎯 Target 1: 3375
🎯 Target 2: 3395
🎯 Target 3: 4010
🎯 Final Target: 3450
📉 Stop Loss: Set tight based on your risk profile
⚠️ Risk Management is Key
🧠 Always use proper lot sizing
📊 Don’t risk more than 1-2% of your capital
🛑 Avoid revenge trading
⏳ Be patient — let the trade play out
💬 Monitor price action around key levels
📈 Bullish momentum expected above 3365
🔍 Look for confirmation candles on the lower timeframes
🔒 Secure profits at each target if needed
📆 June 2025 Setup
#XAUUSD #GoldTrade #ForexSignals
📢 Trade smart, not emotional 💡
GOLD: Bullish Outlook - Nothing ChangedGOLD: Bullish Outlook - Nothing Changed
Based on our analysis, gold has reached the first target near 3,378.50 and has already made a small correction, establishing a base near 3,362.
From a fundamental perspective, no significant changes occurred yesterday, meaning there is no clear reason for gold to shift direction under normal conditions. The price may continue its slow ascent toward 3,390, 3,400, 3,425, and 3,450.
However, caution is advised, as these movements appear to be driven more by market manipulation rather than purely technical factors.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Previous analysis:
GOLD Long From Rising Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in an
Uptrend and the price is
Making a local pullback
But as we are bullish
Biased we will be expecting
A rebound from the rising
Support line and a move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD The higher-than-expected US Unemployment Claims (247K actual vs. 236K forecast) suggest emerging softness in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Here’s how this data impacts the Fed’s policy outlook:
Key Implications for the Fed
Labor Market Cooling:
The uptick in claims aligns with recent trends of slowing payroll growth (Q1 2025 average: 152K jobs/month vs. Q4 2024: 209K) and a stagnant unemployment rate near 4.2%.
Fed projections already anticipate unemployment stabilizing around 4.3% in 2025, but persistent claims increases could signal risks to their "maximum employment" mandate.
Rate Cut Probability:
The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% since May 2025 but emphasized data dependence. Weak labor data strengthens the case for cuts, with markets now pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut (up from ~50% pre-data).
The Fed’s March 2025 projections flagged rising unemployment as a risk, with some participants favoring earlier easing if labor conditions deteriorate.
Inflation Trade-Off:
While unemployment claims rose, wage growth remains elevated . The Fed will weigh labor softness against sticky inflation,
A cooling labor market could ease wage pressures, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight and enabling cuts without reigniting price spikes.
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to weaken further as rate cut expectations rise. Immediate support at 98.40, with a break targeting 97.00
Equities/Gold: Potential gains as lower rates boost risk assets and non-yielding gold.
Bond Yields: 10-year Treasury yields may retreat below 4.40% if markets price in dovish Fed action.
What’s Next?
June 6 NFP Report: A weak jobs number (<150K) would solidify rate cut bets.
June 11 CPI Data: Lower inflation could give the Fed confidence to cut sooner.
Fed Decision (July 31): Odds of a cut rise if labor data continues to soften.
Conclusion
The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over inflation concerns if unemployment claims persist above 240K. While a July cut remains possible, September is the most probable start date for easing, contingent on confirming data.#GOLD
Gold at a Turning Point – Are You Ready for This?Important Note
These two scenarios will only remain valid if 3402 holds as the top in gold. If gold breaks above 3402 before Scenario 1 plays out, both scenarios will be considered invalid.
Scenario 1:
Gold is expected to retest the 3330–3323 zone — a significant Break of Structure (BOS) area. A sweep of this zone could initiate a bullish wave, potentially pushing gold towards the 3624–3650 range.
However, I personally see a low probability for this scenario, as I believe gold may have already formed a major mid-year top around 3500, making an early break unlikely and limiting the potential for this wave to fully develop.
Scenario 2:
If gold does not follow Scenario 1 and breaks below the 3330–3323 zone, it’s likely to retest its major demand area at 3200–3166. A sweep of this zone would very likely trigger a strong bullish move toward the 3475–3500 range.
Why I Favor Scenario 2:
It aligns with a deeper market structure test.
It allows gold to revisit and confirm a major demand zone.
From a higher time frame perspective, it helps complete a broader structural move.
In my opinion, Scenario 2 carries a higher probability based on current market behavior and structure.
Final Thoughts:
These are the two possible scenarios I currently foresee for gold — but remember, I could be wrong. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Intraday traders can use these scenarios to frame their levels and plan scalps accordingly.
Swing traders have a complete setup here to work with based on structure and key zones.
God bless you all — trading isn’t as easy as it looks, especially in gold. Stay sharp and trade smart. Thank you! 🙏
Is gold going up or down?Gold trend analysis:
Technically, gold seems to be fluctuating upward for the time being, and there is no room for a unilateral surge. However, through this week's slow rise, it can be seen that gold is still in an absolute bullish trend. Therefore, no matter how it adjusts, the decline is an opportunity for bulls to enter the position. Gold will first remain in the range of 3332-3392 to see an increase. If it rises above 3400, the upper side will be 3440-3500. If it falls back and breaks through 3330, the lower side will be 3280.
Gold operation strategy:
It is recommended to go long near 3360, stop loss at 3350, and target 3380-3390;
XAU/USD.2h chart pattern..From your XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) 2-hour chart, im showing a bullish channel breakout with a clearly marked target level.
📊 Observations:
The chart displays an ascending channel with price breaking above a key resistance zone (~3412).
The projected target is explicitly marked at:
🎯 3,500.641
This is likely derived from a measured move using the height of the previous consolidation range added to the breakout point.
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🔍 Summary:
Breakout Zone: ~3,412
Target Zone: 3,500.641
Support Zones:
Near-term: 3,370 – 3,390
Channel bottom: ~3,337
Key invalidation: Below 3,320
Would you like help with setting a stop-loss or trailing exit plan to lock in profits as price moves?
GOLD THE dollar index found support at the neckline of double bottom from April price action at 98,450 demand floor and immediately gold started tanking ,dollar crossed another majors supply roof and if it keeps the part to recovery into NFP and we get a favorable data print report ,GOLD will face sell pressure into 3200 or more.
on a flip side ,GOLD bulls could keep gains regardless of NFP data.
stay cautious on NFP.
Gold Faces Key Resistance: Potential Bull Trap Before bearish 🟢 Big Picture – What’s Happening on the Chart?
This is a 1-hour chart of XAU/USD (Gold), showing the recent trend, key levels, and a forecasted movement.
At a glance, you can see that Gold has been in a bullish recovery since the drop on May 29. The market is currently testing a key resistance zone (around $3,400), which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel and a previous consolidation area.
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🔍 Technical Breakdown (Experienced View)
1. Trend Structure
The market formed a higher low after a recent dip (around May 29), suggesting bulls are gaining control.
Price is respecting an ascending trendline, showing a short-term bullish channel.
However, the price is approaching an area of confluence resistance (horizontal resistance + channel top).
2. Chart Patterns
The current setup hints at a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
The chart shows projected arrows suggesting a breakout to the upside (short-term) followed by a pullback, which matches how wedges often behave: false breakouts before the real move.
3. Fib and Zone Analysis
The color bands behind the chart likely represent Fibonacci retracement zones or volume profile levels.
Notice how the price interacts with the green/yellow zone—it’s a clear area where price historically reacts.
If price rejects from here, a pullback to the 3,350 or even 3,300 zone is possible.
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🧠 Experienced Interpretation
If I were trading this:
Scenario A (Breakout Trap): I’d be cautious about chasing a breakout above 3,400. This could be a liquidity grab, where market makers push price slightly above resistance to trap breakout buyers, then reverse.
Scenario B (Short Setup): After the false breakout, I’d look for bearish confirmation (rejection candle, bearish engulfing, or RSI divergence) to enter a short targeting 3,350–3,300.
Scenario C (Long Continuation): If price breaks out strongly and retests the 3,400 level as support, I might switch bias and go long toward 3,450. But I’d need a clear break and hold above this level first.
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🧭 Trading Psychology Reminder
This chart reflects anticipation. The trader behind it expects a fake-out before a drop. As an experienced trader, I wouldn’t blindly follow arrows—but I’d use them to prepare “if-then” scenarios, like:
If price breaks above resistance but closes back inside → look to short.
If price holds above breakout → ride momentum long with tight risk control.
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✅ Summary
Current bias: Bullish short-term, bearish correction expected.
Key zones: Resistance at $3,400–$3,420; Support at $3,350 / $3,300.
Strategy: Wait for confirmation of either breakout or rejection; prepare for both outcomes.
Risk Management: Crucial at resistance zones like this—false breakouts are common traps.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 4Gold technical analysis
Weekly chart resistance 3500, support below 2955
Daily chart resistance 3412, support below 3350-22
Four-hour chart resistance 3390, support below 3322
One-hour chart resistance 3378, support below 3322
Gold news analysis: On Tuesday (June 3) in the NY market, spot gold accelerated its decline, falling to around $3333/ounce, a sharp drop of $59 during the day. Mainly affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rebound in risk sentiment. Affected by the rise of risky assets the day before, the demand for safe-haven assets was weakened, causing some gold bulls to choose to take profits. However, the market remains vigilant about the global situation. The continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the escalation of trade tensions between Asian powers and the United States, and the failure of the second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have made the market risk aversion still support gold.
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the support of 3350-3322. The pressure above focuses on the suppression near the one-hour level 3378 and the four-hour level 3390. The short-term long-short strength and weakness watershed 3322. Continue to buy on dips before the four-hour level falls below this position.
Buy: 3322near SL: 3317
Buy: 3350near SL: 3345
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