Gold Market Analysis: Key Levels to WatchGold Market Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Gold is currently in a highly overbought state. Since April 10th, its price has surged past a strong resistance level, climbing up to 3245.
The price could now make a minor correction before continuing its rise, or a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. Let's examine two possible scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If gold rises above 3245, it could aim for higher targets at 3284 and 3300.
Bearish Scenario:
If gold drops below 3206, a bearish trend may unfold, with potential declines to 3167 and 3128. Both levels should be closely monitored, as a rebound from these areas could lead to a stronger upward wave. In particular, 3167 seems to be a solid support level with a higher chance of reversing the downward trend.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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GOLD trade ideas
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 4/19/2025Gold has been on the rise for consecutive 2 weeks. Currently it is at the final leg of Elliott wave. I am expecting serious correction to come next week.
Next week we should see price rise first and drop from around 3.4k. My optimal target next week will be 3172.
Take note gold is super volatile. It can easily move more than 1k pips one day.
Let's go down to smaller TF for better order next week.
Gold could potentially retrace back into this identified fvgGold could potentially retrace back into this identified fair value gap (FVG), and if it respects this zone as a point of interest, we may see a bullish reaction. This reaction could serve as a catalyst for the market to resume its upward trend and possibly form a new higher high in the process.
GOLD - SELL strategy 6-hourly chart Regression ChannelGOLD still remains on upside, and we have clearly seen this. However, I believe we will see a reasonable correction in the near term based on the fact we are way above the channel, and secondly we are heavily overbought for sometime. Yes, I can understand the fear that markets have, but is it this founded at any level is something I wonder. Anyway, it provides an opportunity to add to shorts we have.
Strategy SELL @ $ 3,325-3,365 or ADD (ensure leverage is manageable of course. I maintain for metals always a very low leverage). Profit on the way down @ $ 3,237 and follow by $ 3,178 for now.
Today's gold analysis strategyThe gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations and corrections. From a technical perspective, the overbought correction has already arrived. The price of gold has deviated significantly from its short-term moving average, strongly suggesting that a correction is needed to complete the technical adjustment. The current correction is not a simple unilateral decline.
From a fundamental perspective, the underlying support for gold remains rock solid. Geopolitical risks, especially the continued escalation of the tariff standoff, have maintained strong demand for safe-haven assets. Therefore, this price adjustment should be regarded as a typical correction following the previous sharp rise.
Buying price: 3290 - 3295
Target price: 3320 - 3330
Gold: Reversal Is Near
The impulse move in OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:GOLD TVC:GOLD AMEX:GLD appears to be complete. Several signals point to an imminent correction:
A five-wave structure is nearing its final leg
RSI is showing bearish divergence
Volume is surging at the top — a classic sign of distribution
The 3315–3350 zone is a risk area.
Expecting a pullback to 3200–3150, possibly deeper.
3382 , next ATH number today, GOLD⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a phase of consolidation on Thursday, trading within a narrow range near its all-time high reached during the Asian session, as investors digest conflicting market signals. Stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales figures and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have lent support to the US Dollar (USD), curbing some of gold’s upside momentum. Meanwhile, the upbeat sentiment across equity markets and mildly overbought technical conditions are prompting traders to remain cautious, limiting fresh buying interest in the precious metal for now.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price continues to increase today, the fomo still has no end, pay attention to the new ATH price zone 3382
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3381- 3383 SL 3388
TP1: $3370
TP2: $3355
TP3: $3333
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3302 - $3300 SL $3295
TP1: $3310
TP2: $3320
TP3: $3330
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold has a top signal, be wary of a retracement today!
On Wednesday, as the market waited to see whether Trump would reach a new trade agreement with trading partners, the US dollar index fell again and once fell to around $99.
Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the escalation of trade tensions, spot gold continued its record-breaking rise, refreshing its historical high to above $3,340, and soared by more than $100 during the day.
Today, Thursday, gold continued its bullish trend last night in the early trading, and once hit a historical high of 3,357 in the early trading.
But now we need to be extra careful, because tomorrow is Friday, Good Friday, and the market will be closed all day, which means that today, Thursday, is the last trading day of the week. Currently, long positions in gold are likely to be taken out of the market.
Once the long positions are taken out of the market, it is easy to have a large retracement, so we must be careful about this and must not be overly bullish.
Today's opening position is around 3342. In the morning, it retreated to around 3320, and then stretched up again.
However, it can be found that since it fell below the opening position of 3342, gold has not stood above 3342 again.
This is a strong signal of short-term retracement, especially when long positions are about to be profited.
Moreover, the hourly chart has a little ABC wave-shaped retracement. Once it comes down, I think it is not a problem to touch 3300-10, and it is not ruled out that it will be lower.
Currently, the ma10 moving average position below gold is also at 3300-3310.
Therefore, it is not recommended that you chase long orders today, and you should be prepared for the possibility of falling to 3300-3310 in advance.
In terms of operation, I suggest that you can enter the market and short near 3340, and the target can be 3300-3310.
Gold Is Forming a Bull Flag : Targeting a New ATH?Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3280 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3280 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Best Technical Indicator to Identify Order Block & Imbalance
Your ability to correctly identify Order Blocks on a price chart is essential for profitable trading Smart Money Concept.
In this article, I will show you a great technical indicator that will help you to spot Order Blocks on any financial market.
First, in brief, let me give you my definition of Order Block.
The problem is that in SMC trading there is no one single definition of that and many traders interpret it differently.
To me, an Order Block is a specific zone on a chart from where a strong price movement initiates and where a significant imbalance between supply and demand occurs .
This imbalance should strictly originate from a liquidity zone.
That definition implies that in order to identify an Order Block zone, one should learn to properly identify the imbalance and liquidity zones.
And again, there is no precise definition of an imbalance on a price chart. To me, a bullish imbalance is a formation of a bullish engulfing candle - the one that engulfs a range of previous bearish candle with its body.
Above is the example of a valid Order Block on GBPUSD.
A bearish imbalance is a formation of a bearish engulfing candle - the one that engulfs a range of a previous bullish candle with its body.
Above, you can see the example of an Order Block on USDCAD, based on a bearish imbalance.
There is one technical indicator that will help you to recognize such Order Blocks. It is called " All Candlestick Patterns" on TradingView.
Open settings of the indicator and make it show ONLY Engulfing Candles and choose "No Detection" in "Detect Trends Based on".
After that, hide the indicator and first, Identify the liquidity zones on a chart and wait for a test of one of these zones.
Here is a test of a liquidity zone on NZDUSD on an hourly time frame.
After that, turn on the indicator, and wait for its signal.
You can see that after some time, the price formed a bullish imbalance with a bullish engulfing candle. The indicator highlight that candle.
The Order Block zone will be based on the lowest low of 2 candles and the high of a bearish candle preceding the imbalance.
One more example. We see a test of a significant liquidity zone on EURAUD on a 4H time frame.
We turn on the indicator and look for a signal.
A bearish imbalance is formed and the indicator immediately notifies us.
An Order Block Zone in that case will be the area based on the highest high of 2 candles and the low of a bullish candle preceding the imbalance .
Of course, there will be the rare cases when the indicator will miss the imbalances. But while you are learning to recognize Order Blocks, this indicator will definitely help you a lot!
Thank you for reading!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Analysis April 17Another day of half-full D candle increase but today there is a bearish wave appearing
The h4 frame has shown signs of sellers jumping into the market and H1 also formed bearish waves.
The bearish wave formed with support 3322. Breaking 3322 is very easy to form a strong bearish wave but the necessary condition is that the 3315 zone will have to be broken. If 3315 increases, 3338 is the zone that the Sellers are also waiting for. 3354-3355 ATH zone will still have a reaction from the Sellers before creating a new ATH.
Trading zone when there is confirmation
Price zones to pay attention to BUY 3315, 3293, 3275
Price zones to pay attention to SELL 3337, 3354
Gold Price Rollercoaster: Is the Rally Just Beginning?The gold price has had a pretty crazy six days, jumping from 3,014 USD on April 9, 2025, to 3,357 USD on April 17 – that’s a solid 11%+ gain. So, what’s going on now? Is the gold rally over, or could we see even more upside? Let’s break it down.
🔥 What’s driving the gold price?
The big reason behind the recent surge is the trade war between the US and China. Trump has slapped new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, which has shaken things up in the markets. The Fed has also warned that these tariffs are bigger than expected, and could slow down growth and increase inflation.
When things get uncertain, investors tend to rush to safe havens like gold, and that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The demand for gold is up, and so is the price.
📉 What does the ECB rate cut mean?
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 0.25% today, dropping from 4.5% to 4.25%. They’re trying to help the economy out and ease inflation.
Lower rates mean fixed-income investments aren’t as attractive, which makes gold a better option. But, the US Fed has made it clear they won’t cut rates before June 2025, which could strengthen the US dollar and make gold a little less appealing.
🕊️ What if there’s a trade deal?
Now, imagine there’s a breakthrough – a trade deal, fairer tariffs, and everyone’s calming down. That could change things for gold:
📉 Less risk = less demand for gold: If things chill out, less capital will flow into gold.
💵 Stronger Dollar?: A trade deal could make the US dollar stronger, which isn’t necessarily great for gold. But Trump has made it clear that he doesn't want a strong dollar, since it makes US goods less competitive abroad. Even if the dollar does strengthen, it might put pressure on gold since it becomes more expensive for people using other currencies.
🔁 Money shifts: If things get calmer, investors might move away from gold and back into stocks or bonds for better returns.
So, a deal could definitely slow down or even end this gold rally.
🧭 What does this mean for investors?
Daytraders
For day traders, the current ups and downs can offer some good opportunities, but they also come with risks. The markets are super sensitive to news about the trade war and rate cuts. Quick gains are possible, but you’ve got to be careful. If a trade deal happens, expect the classic “Sell the News” scenario where the market cools off.
Medium-Term Investors (1 Month)
Over the next few weeks, we’ll see if more trade war news or central bank decisions impact the gold price. The rally could keep going, but nothing is guaranteed. If you’re in it for the medium-term, keep your positions flexible and manage risk closely. A trade deal could be bad news for gold, though.
Long-Term Investors
Long-term, gold is still a great way to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. The current trends could help gold prices, but keep in mind there could be some ups and downs. If the price drops due to a trade deal, it might actually be a good opportunity to buy.
📊 The Bottom Line
Gold has been on a hot streak lately, driven by the trade war and central bank moves. Whether this rally continues or cools down depends on what happens next. A trade deal could bring a correction. So, keep an eye on things and adjust your strategy accordingly.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Trading Smarter, Not Harder: Decoding Institutional MovesThere’s an old saying in trading: “Follow the smart money.” But how do you know where the smart money is going? The answer lies not in guesswork but in data—specifically, the kind of institutional-grade data that most retail traders overlook. If you’re serious about understanding market dynamics, it’s time to dive into the world of **COT (Commitment of Traders) reports** and **options flow data** from the **CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)**. These tools are like your personal radar, cutting through the noise to reveal what the big players are doing.
Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture – Why Market Sentiment Matters
Before we zoom into the specifics, let’s start with the basics. Markets are driven by sentiment—the collective mood of participants. When fear dominates, prices fall; when greed takes over, they rise. But here’s the catch: Retail traders often react to sentiment after it’s already priced in. By the time you see a headline screaming “Market Crashes!” or “Record Highs!”, the opportunity has likely passed.
This is where systematic analysis comes in. Instead of relying on emotions or lagging indicators, smart traders use raw data to anticipate shifts in sentiment. And two of the most powerful sources of this data are **COT reports** and **CME options flow**.
Step 2: The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – Peering Into the Mind of Institutions
The **COT report**, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides a breakdown of positions held by different types of traders: commercial hedgers, non-commercial speculators (like hedge funds), and small retail traders. Here’s why it’s invaluable:
- **Commercial Hedgers**: These are the “smart money” players—producers and consumers who use futures markets to hedge their risk. For example, a sugar producer might sell futures contracts to lock in prices. Their actions often signal future supply and demand trends.
- **Non-Commercial Speculators**: These are the momentum-driven players who bet on price movements. Tracking their positioning helps identify potential reversals.
- **Small Traders**: Often considered the “dumb money,” their positions frequently coincide with market tops or bottoms.
By systematically analyzing the COT report, you will discover your ability to identify patterns and positioning levels of participants that signal trend reversals or the onset of corrections. Seriously, this will blow your mind! The insights you gain will be so groundbreaking that they will change your trading game forever.
Step 3: Options Flow – Real-Time Insights Into Institutional Activity
While the COT report offers a macro view, **options flow** gives you real-time insights into institutional activity. Directly through CME data feeds, you can track large block trades in options markets. Here’s why this matters:
It will take some time, observation, and comparison with price charts to learn how to uncover insights that lead to trades with a risk-reward ratio of 1:10 or even higher. This isn’t about needing to make options trades; that’s not a requirement. It’s about being able to trade the Forex market much more effectively by using entry points highlighted by options and futures market reports.
For example, over the past few weeks, the USD/JPY pair has been in a downtrend. Long before this happened, major players were accumulating positions in call options on the futures for the yen (which is equivalent to a decline in the yen). We discussed this before the drop occurred (you can easily find those analyses on our page ).
What’s remarkable is that there are many such insights available. For certain instruments (like precious metals and currency pairs), these insights appear with a certain regularity and provide excellent sentiment for opening positions or reversing positions in the opposite direction.
Step 4: Connecting the Dots – From General Trends to Specific Trades
Now that we’ve covered the tools, let’s talk about how to apply them systematically. Imagine you’re analyzing the sugar futures market (a favorite among commodity traders):
1. **Check the COT Report**: In the precious metals market, commercials are often positioned short, hedging against the risk of a decline in the underlying asset's value. When their net position hovers around zero , it typically signals a bullish trend for gold prices in the vast majority of cases.
2. **Analyze Options Flow**: when filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider:
- Size and value of the option portfolio
- Distance from the central strike (Delta)
- Time to expiration
- Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset
Option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (iVERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. While "naked" options (PUT or CALL options) with above-average volume can signal that the price is encountering a significant obstacle at that level, leading to a potential bounce off that level (support or resistance).
3 **Combine with Retail Positions Analysis**: Look for opportunities to trade against the crowd. If retail sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consider a bearish position, and vice versa.
This layered approach ensures you’re not just reacting to headlines but making informed decisions based on valuable data.
Step 5: Why Systematic Analysis Sets You Apart
Here’s the truth: Most traders fail because they rely on intuition rather than evidence. They chase tips, follow social media hype, or get swayed by emotional biases. But markets reward discipline and preparation. By mastering tools like COT reports and options flow, you gain a competitive edge—a deeper understanding market breath! The path of least resistance!
Remember, even seasoned professionals don’t predict every move correctly.However, having a reliable structure allows you to maximize profits from transactions, eliminate noise and unnecessary (questionable) transactions.
Final Thoughts: Your Path to Mastery
If there’s one takeaway from this article, let it be this: The best traders aren’t fortune-tellers; they’re detectives. They piece together clues from multiple sources to form a coherent picture of the market. Start with the big picture (COT reports), zoom into real-time activity (options flow), and then refine your strategy with technical analysis.
So next time you open chart, don’t just look at price. Dive into the reports/data before. Ask questions. Connect the dots. Because in the world of trading, knowledge truly is power.
What’s your experience with COT reports or options flow? Share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to hear how you incorporate these tools into your trading routine!
**P.S.** If you found this article helpful, consider bookmarking it for future reference.
XAU/USD... SELL TREND 15M CHART PATTREN.im now selling GOLD at 3220, with a target of 3190.
Here’s the updated trade setup:
Trade Type: Sell
Entry: 3220
Target: 3190
Total Target Range: 30 points
If you're scalping or swing trading, here are a few suggestions:
Stop Loss (SL): Consider placing it around 3230–3235 to limit potential losses.
Risk-Reward Ratio: With a 10–15 point SL and a 30-point TP, your risk-reward is about 1:2 to 1:3 — solid setup.
Trailing Stop: Once the trade moves 10–15 points in your favor, trail your stop to breakeven.
Want help calculating exact profit or setting this up for a specific trading platform (like MetaTrader or TradingView)?
Gold Trade Plan 17/04/2025Dear Traders,
I believe we might see a correction down to the 3280 zone. If this level is broken, the next support area will be around 3240."
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
An extremely decent day on Gold with price doing what we wanted in the KOG Report. We tested the low, got the RIP, tested the high, got the RIP and then continued with the move point to point, level to level to completed the path and most of our bearish and bias target levels.
We're now in with runners protected with the immediate resistance level above at the 3220-25 region which will need to hold for price continue with the move downside. Based on a clean rejection, we should continue first into the 3195 level.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3265 with targets below 3220✅, 3210✅. 3197✅, 3190 and below that 3170
Bullish on break of 3265 with targets above 3276, 3280, 3285 and above that 3292
RED BOXES:
Break above 3250 for 3255, 3261, 3269, 3275 and 3290 in extension of the move
Break below 3230 for 3220✅, 3210✅, 3206✅, 3195✅ and 3180 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Lingrid | GOLD new All-Time HIGHS with Potential PULLBACK TradeThe price has perfectly fulfilled my previous forecast . OANDA:XAUUSD market has established another new all-time high and continues pushing toward higher levels. The price has now reached a resistance zone at 3300, potentially marking an area where we might see a rollback—creating an opportunity to go long. The price has formed a range zone around the 3225 level, and this support might serve as an optimal area to look for buy signals. Furthermore, an upward trendline sits below this range, having previously acted as both support and resistance. Given today's scheduled high-impact news, we should anticipate increased market volatility. My goal is resistance zone around 3390
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAU/USD) Flag Analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Analysis presents a bullish outlook for XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here’s a breakdown of the key elements:
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Key Analysis Points:
1. Order Block + Key Support Zone:
Price recently tapped into a bullish order block around the $3,166.74–$3,208.62 zone.
This area is also marked as a "key support level", suggesting a strong demand zone.
The confluence of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and order block gives this zone higher validity for potential reversal.
2. Bullish Market Structure:
The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend.
Price action broke above a small consolidation, showing bullish momentum is resuming.
3. Projected Target:
The target point is set at $3,283.01, suggesting about a 55-point upside from the current price.
This target sits above a previous high, indicating anticipation of a liquidity grab or breakout.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is at 57.94, which is a neutral-to-bullish zone. It supports the idea that there's still room for price to move up before being overbought.
5. EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average):
The price is well above the 200 EMA, confirming a bullish bias in the higher timeframe.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Possible Strategy:
Long (Buy) Entry Zone: Between $3,166–$3,208 (ideal near the order block/FVG).
Target: $3,283
Stop Loss: Below the order block, ideally below $3,166 to avoid getting wicked out.
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Final Thoughts:
This is a well-structured bullish setup based on institutional concepts like order blocks and FVGs. The price is aligned with the trend, and RSI supports more upside. However, watch for any major news catalysts (especially with those economic event icons shown).
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)