GOLD trade ideas
Gold 8H – Probable Scenario Until the End of May 2025Briefly today!
Greetings, let’s take a look at the current situation for gold.
Technically, we can see a classic symmetrical triangle forming on the 8-hour chart, with a support zone established in the 3291–3300 range.
I'm expecting a move towards the 3440–3450 area, followed by a retest and an upward push toward the 3833 level.
Fundamentally, we take into account Trump's policy stance and the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – 1H🏛 1. Current Market Structure
📈 After a strong upward impulse, gold has now pulled back into a Bull OTE zone, aligned with a key trendline acting as a dynamic support.
📐 This setup could indicate a potential bullish rebound, especially if the market views this pullback as a healthy retracement before a larger continuation.
🌍 2. Bigger Picture Outlook
🔍 The recent rejection at the Bear OTE highlights the presence of strong supply at higher levels.
⚠️ However, the current bounce from the Bull OTE could either be the start of a larger bullish leg targeting the Bear OTE again – or just a technical bounce before a deeper correction, especially if the FED hints at rate cuts in June or July.
🔍 3. Key Technical Observations
🟦 Bear OTE: Clear rejection, confirming this as a key resistance for now.
🟦 Bull OTE: Providing initial support, coupled with a trendline bounce, adding confluence for a potential move up.
📐 Trendline Support: Critical for maintaining the current bullish structure, a break here could signal a deeper retracement.
🎯 4. Short-Term Expectations
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from the Bull OTE
Break below the trendline
Deeper pullback towards the Supply Zone or even the 50% retracement level
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Clean break above the Bull OTE
Retest of the Bear OTE (~$3,500)
Possible breakout if volume supports the move
🔥 5. Upcoming Catalysts
🕰 FED rate decision in June/July – potential rate cuts could shift sentiment.
💰 Inflation and economic data: Key drivers for gold’s short-term direction.
🔎 Volume and order flow: Crucial to confirm any true breakout.
✅ Conclusion
👉 Gold is at a critical junction, testing a Bull OTE with a supporting trendline – a key moment for determining the next major leg.
📍 Key levels to watch:
Bear OTE (~$3,500)
Bull OTE (~$3,300 - $3,320)
Trendline support – a break here could invalidate the bullish thesis
⏳ As always, stay alert for fakeouts and liquidity grabs around these levels.
Lingrid | GOLD structure BREAKOUT. Potential BULLISH RallyThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . OANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of a descending triangle and bearish channel, signaling a short-term reversal. After printing a Lower Low near the support area, price surged past the downward trendline and is now forming a consolidation above it. This suggests bullish strength, but a retest of the breakout level may occur before a continuation.
📌 Key Levels
Support Zone: 3,219 – 3,321
Breakout Target: 3,435
Invalidation Level: Below 3,219 (re-entry into previous bearish structure)
⚠️ Risks
Rejection near 3,435 or failure to hold above the trendline could trigger a correction.
Bearish divergence or strong resistance at 3,487 may cap upside.
Upcoming economic news (e.g., NFP, CPI) could lead to volatility.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
View on the short-term trend of gold!📌Fundamentals:
Gold prices fell sharply. After Trump announced a "breakthrough" trade deal with the UK, market expectations for more similar deals increased, weakening gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
📊Technological aspects:
Gold quickly fell in the Asian session and then quickly stretched back up. As of now, it has stood above 3320. So the possibility of gold falling again is relatively small. And there is a possibility that gold will further hit Thursday's high of 3360-70. If 3202 to 3435 is regarded as wave a, then 3438 to today's low of 3275 is wave b. So the current rebound from 3275 will go up in wave c. The first suppression position above is 3360-70, the high point of yesterday's rebound. At present, gold has stabilized above 3320, so the next bullish target for gold is to test 3360-70. After the pressure appears, follow the trend and go short.
Gold (XAU/USD) Breakout Confirmed – Bulls Eye Higher TargetHello guys!
Gold has successfully broken above the key resistance level marked as the breakout level, confirming bullish momentum. This breakout follows a clear bullish divergence, indicating a reversal from the recent downtrend. The strong upward movement suggests increased buyer interest and continuation potential.
Two bullish scenarios are in play:
Scenario 1: Price continues upward from the current breakout zone without a retest, targeting the next resistance area around $3,440–$3,470.
Scenario 2: A pullback to the breakout level or the demand zone near $3,325–$3,340, followed by a bullish continuation.
What I see:
✅ Bullish divergence identified at the recent low
✅ Breakout from a significant resistance level
📈 Momentum favors continued upside
Scalping Trade – Technical Analysis on Gold (1-Minute Timeframe)
In this brief analysis, we examine a scalping opportunity on Gold (XAU/USD) using the 1-minute chart, focusing on a short-term technical setup supported by both price action and indicators.
The chart displays a well-defined downward trend, confirmed by two descending red trendlines. These trendlines have been respected consistently by the price, indicating a strong bearish structure. At the time of analysis, the price action approached a key resistance zone around the 3,319 level.
This resistance is notable for two reasons: it represents a horizontal level tested multiple times, and it coincides with a descending trendline, forming a confluence that increases the probability of a price rejection. This dual-resistance scenario presents a compelling case for a short entry.
A sell position was initiated near this resistance area. The stop loss is placed above the resistance zone, near 3,325, to protect against a breakout. The take profit is set around 3,301, targeting a recent support level established by a strong previous low. This provides a clean technical target within the current structure.
Supporting this trade idea, both the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator are showing overbought signals and have begun turning downward, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish reversal.
The trade offers a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.97, which is considered favorable in scalping strategies, where precision and timing are critical.
Bullish Gold: Ride the Wave with Pullback BuysOn the daily gold chart, there was a sharp upward surge on Monday, and the price rebounded above the $3300 mark. Normally, the upward movement on the daily chart could potentially drive the price towards the high point near the upper Bollinger Band at around $3500. This also means that the monthly chart recovers the upper shadow and forms a second upward thrust. So, there is ample upside potential. We should focus on the sustainability of this upward momentum.
On the 4 - hour chart, another wave of strength is needed. A significant rally is required to widen the upper Bollinger Band and establish an absolute one - sided bullish trend. Therefore, although the bullish outlook is clear for now, there is still a possibility of some adjustments. Currently, the support below is around the $3340 - $3350 range, with the dividing line being near the early - morning low of $3330. If there is an opportunity for the price to pull back to the support area, one can go long and bet on the upward trend. Today, keep an eye on the resistance levels at $3385 - $3395 - $3400.
XAUUSD
buy@3350-3355-3360
tp:3370-3380-3400
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GOLD The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has resumed buying and strengthened recently due to several key factors:
Widening Interest Rate Differential and Economic Outperformance
The U.S. economy is growing faster than many other major economies, projected at around 2.7% in 2025, while Europe and Japan face weaker growth and deeper rate cuts by their central banks.
This growth divergence has widened the gap between U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and those of key trading partners to the highest level since 1994, making the dollar more attractive to investors seeking yield.
Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Due to Tariff-Driven Inflation
U.S. tariffs, especially on Chinese goods, are expected to keep inflation elevated, delaying the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. Higher U.S. interest rates relative to other countries support dollar strength.
The Fed’s cautious stance after the May 7 meeting, holding rates steady and signaling a wait-and-see approach, reinforces the dollar’s yield advantage.
Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and tariff uncertainties drive investors toward the dollar as a safe haven during periods of global uncertainty.
Positive Carry Trades and Positioning
The dollar benefits from carry trades where investors borrow in lower-yielding currencies (yen, euro) to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. Long-dollar positioning is not yet saturated, leaving room for further gains.
Technical Support and Market Sentiment
The DXY has found strong technical support near key levels with bullish price action and momentum building, suggesting continued upside potential in the near term.
Summary Table
Widened interest rate differential Higher U.S. yields draw investors
Tariff-driven inflation delays Fed cuts Sustains dollar yield advantage
Safe-haven demand amid uncertainty Boosts dollar as global risk-off asset
Positive carry trades Encourages long-dollar positioning
Technical support near key levels Reinforces bullish momentum
In essence:
The DXY’s resumed buying reflects a combination of strong U.S. economic fundamentals, delayed Fed easing due to tariff inflation, safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks, and technical factors supporting the dollar’s near-term rally. This momentum is expected to continue into mid-2025 unless global growth stabilizes or the Fed signals more aggressive easing.
Gold fluctuates and waits for interest rate decisionAfter gold quickly rose and fell in the morning today, it basically began to fluctuate sideways. Of course, this is also in preparation for the heavyweight data of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The early pullback of gold at the hourly level has double-needle support near 3360, followed by yesterday's Asian session pullback near 3350. The U.S. session mainly focuses on the range of this position. In general, the short-term idea before the interest rate decision is to focus on the high-selling and low-buying operations in the range of 3350 to 3400. If it falls below the support of 3350, it is recommended to directly chase the short position and pay attention to the key support of 3290 below. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold is to mainly short on rebounds and to go long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3400-3405 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3350-3300 line of support.
GOLD - Sell Setup📉 GOLD - Sell Setup
🔹 Date: 07 May 2025
🔹 Pattern: Double Top + Break of Trendline
🔹 Entry Zone: 3387 - 3397 (Strong Resistance Rejection)
🔹 Confirmation: Clear rejection from previous supply area (highlighted in red), with break below ascending trendline.
🔹 Target 1: 3350
🔹 Target 2: 3337
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 3400
🔹 Risk/Reward: Solid setup with favorable RRR.
XAUUSD – 30m Precision Buy from 79% Fib + Liquidity Grab📈 GOLD LONG CONTINUATION – May 7, 2025 | Smart Money Masterclass
Here’s a 🔥 textbook entry on XAUUSD, showing exactly how Smart Money engineered liquidity, tapped into the Fair Value Gap, and launched the price from deep Fib levels.
Let’s break this down like a true Chart Ninja:
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES IN THIS SETUP:
🧠 FVG Respect: Perfect reaction from the imbalance zone (gray box)
💰 Liquidity Sweep: Triple low fake-out → "Buy-side Engineered Liquidity" ($ symbols)
📉 Descending Trendline Break: Acting as a final bear trap
🧲 Fib Retracement: Entry from deep golden pocket zone (between 70.5% and 79%)
📊 50% EQ Magnet Above: Price reacting towards premium inefficiency
🚀 Risk-Reward Setup: ~1:6 RR targeting imbalance fill around $3435
🏗️ Structure: Price built a base with multiple accumulation candles before break
📈 Trade Details:
🟢 Entry Zone: $3,388 – $3,393 (limit filled within FVG + Fib zone)
❌ SL: Just below 79% zone at $3,386
✅ TP: $3,435 (0% Fib level / top of the range + inefficiency)
📈 RRR: ~1:6 sniper level precision
⚙️ Execution Strategy:
Confirmation entry after inducement wick
FVG + Fib overlap = High probability zone
Optional scaling in across zone: 70.5%, 75%, 79%
First partials around $3,412, full TP at $3,435 zone
💬 Chart Ninja Quote of the Day:
"The best trades don’t chase price—they wait for price to chase them."
🔒 SETUP SUMMARY:
Timeframe: 30m
Bias: Bullish
Entry Type: Limit
Confluences: FVG + Fib + Liquidity Sweep
Trade Type: Reversal from Demand
Confirmation: Structure shift + Clean W bottom
💾 Save this setup and study it frame-by-frame.
📲 Share it with your trading crew who still think breakouts are reliable 😉
Gold maintains gains near new record highsTechnically, gold's recent rally was remarkably rapid, in search of 3,420 and 3,500, leaving few clear entry points for new buyers. Now, with prices slightly correcting, traders may see this as a potential opportunity for a comeback. The 3,350-3,360 area stands out as a critical support zone. If prices remain above this area, the market may consolidate before attempting to move toward its recent highs. However, a break above this area could lead gold to test 3,330, a pivotal technical support level that could serve as a starting point or signal the beginning of a deeper correction.
Gold 15min Breakout After Falling Wedge | Potential Upside Setu
Gold 15min Breakout After Falling Wedge | Potential Upside Setup
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Description:
After forming a clear falling wedge pattern, Gold (XAU/USD) on the 15-minute chart has broken out to the upside. The breakout is supported by increasing volume and a strong bullish push. Entry was taken just after the breakout confirmation, with targets near the 3367 and 3420 zones. Risk is managed below the recent low at 3292.
This setup is purely based on technical analysis for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and follow your trading plan.
Gold is expected to pull back, short gold!Fundamentals:
Focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech;
I think the Fed will keep the interest rate decision unchanged this time, at least it will not announce a rate cut this time, which may suppress the gold market;
Technical aspects:
Before the Fed's interest rate decision, gold is currently in a volatile state. However, relatively speaking, it is currently in a volatile and bearish state, with short-term resistance in the 3395-3405 area; and gold has repeatedly tested the 3370-3360 below during the retracement process. After multiple tests, gold may be more likely to break through this support area; the key support below is in the 3360-3350 area, followed by the 3320-3310 area.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold in the 3395-3405 area, TP: 3370-3360
[ TimeLine ] Gold 5-6 May 2025📅 Today is Friday, May 2, 2025
📌 Upcoming Signal Dates:
May 5, 2025 (Monday) or
May 5 & 6, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has undergone a significant reversal of over 2000 pips, from its ATH of 3500 down to 3200
⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide, consider reversal entries or setups based on Fibonacci retracement levels
✅ I will personally be trading both signals as part of my research and ongoing strategy
⚠️ If you're risk-averse or uncertain, it’s okay to skip the May 5–6 signals
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart)
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, including a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If SL is hit, cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x/C5zZyXar/
Gold Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3300 zone, Gold was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 3300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.