Gold Hits New Highs as US-China Tensions Escalate 📌 Gold Outlook: US-China Trade Tensions Fuel New Bullish Wave Amid Policy Uncertainty 🧨📈
🌍 Geopolitical Drivers Taking the Lead
On April 15th, President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on all critical minerals imported into the U.S. – a move seen as the latest escalation in his ongoing economic confrontation with global trade partners, most notably China.
This development has shaken overall market sentiment, prompting investors to rotate into safe-haven assets like gold, which has surged in response.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar weakened sharply, nearing 3-year lows last week, further increasing gold’s appeal for holders of other currencies.
🏦 Central Bank Uncertainty Adds Fuel to the Fire
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank would not intervene to “rescue” markets during turbulent periods, suggesting that volatility may persist as hedge funds unwind leverage and global investors remain cautious.
He emphasized that the current volatility may be driven by shifting trade policies and broader uncertainty — which he said is “too early to fully diagnose.”
With central banks showing no immediate intent to inject liquidity or cut rates, the bullish case for gold remains strong in the coming weeks.
📊 Technical Outlook: New Highs in Sight, But Volatility Will Be Sharp
Gold continues to print new ATHs, and the dominant strategy right now is to trade with the trend — which clearly remains bullish. In such an environment, sudden drops are normal and not necessarily tied to any single news event.
Rather than attempting to short the market near highs, we are focusing on catching bullish continuation setups after sharp intraday corrections. These will likely form at support zones or classic continuation patterns on M15/M30 timeframes.
🔍 Price Levels to Watch
🟢 Support Zones:
3314 – 3300 – 3284 – 3266
🔴 Psychological Resistance:
3380 – 3396 – 3410
💼 Trade Plan
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3300 – 3298
SL: 3264
TP Targets: 3304 → 3308 → 3312 → 3316 → 3320 → 3324 → 3330 → higher
SELL ZONE (Psychological Reaction Only):
Entry: 3396 – 3398
SL: 3402
TP Targets: 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370
⚠️ Final Thoughts
We remain firmly buy-biased, especially as gold continues to be driven by macro and political catalysts. Pullbacks should be welcomed — not feared — and seen as opportunities to scale into longs at structure.
While intraday drops may appear sharp and sudden, they often lack fundamental backing and provide the best entry conditions for continuation traders. Be cautious with shorts — unless reacting to extended psychological resistance zones.
Always trade with a clear plan and never forget to honor your TP/SL levels to safeguard your capital.
💬 How are you navigating gold during this surge in global tension? Are you buying dips or waiting for a deeper correction? Let us know below! 👇👇👇
GOLD trade ideas
"Gold Demand Zone Bounce – High R:R Long Setup!"📈 This is a bullish setup using a demand zone bounce strategy on the 15-minute timeframe.
Key Zones & Levels
🔵 Demand Zone:
The blue box is where price previously bounced strongly.
Buyers are likely to step in again here.
✳️ Entry Point:
3,292.38
Just above the demand zone – a safe place to catch the next bounce.
⛔ Stop Loss:
3,280.93
Below the demand zone to protect against a breakdown.
🎯 Target Point:
3,345.09
Near a previous resistance area.
Potential gain: +51.94 pts / 1.58%
Indicators
🟡 EMA (7):
Current value: 3,303.63
Price hovering around EMA = consolidation or setup for a bounce.
Risk-Reward Calculation
⚠️ Risk: 11.45 points
✅ Reward: 52.71 points
⭐ Risk-Reward Ratio: ~4.6:1
Very favorable!
Price Action Summary
📊 Strong uptrend into demand zone
🔁 Minor pullback = potential setup
✅ Ideal entry after bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish candle pattern)
Conclusion
This setup looks solid:
✅ Clear demand zone support
✅ High R:R ratio
✅ Clean target above
Just wait for a bullish signal inside the zone and ride it up!
GOLD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,305.34 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,336.25.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAU/USD... 4H CHART PETTERN..IM looking at a XAU/USD (gold) trade setup with the following parameters:
Sell Entry: 3300
Resistance (Stop Loss): 3340
Target (Take Profit): 3205
Here’s a quick breakdown of the risk-reward ratio and setup summary:
Trade Summary
Sell Entry: 3300
Stop Loss: 3340 (40 pips risk)
Take Profit: 3205 (95 pips reward)
Risk-Reward Ratio:
95 / 40 = 2.38:1 — which is a solid R:R ratio.
If you're already in the trade or planning to enter, it's a good setup technically — assuming price has shown rejection near 3300 and the trend or momentum supports downside.
Want a chart analysis or to set alerts for key price levels?
Gold - Chasing Parabolas is Hard to DoThere's a quote from legendary investor John Templeton that goes like this:
"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."
This is contrarian, of course, but there's also a lot to it if we try to unwrap it. But first I want to start off even broader than that. I try to often remind myself of just how uncertain the future is and just how pointless it is to try to predict. It can be hard, to be sure, especially if you're around the business of speculation. But, spend a long enough time and see enough 'sure things' turn out to be disappointments or backfires, and I think it becomes a bit simpler.
I don't look at analysis as predictive. I look at it as probabilistic. But even then those probabilities will have a degree of uncertainty because that future will always be vulnerable for some type of surprise. My aim instead is to seek out the prospect of asymmetry; ways to risk a dollar in order to make two, or possibly three.
In analysis, I largely lean technical because I tend to think that most of the 'known knowns' get priced-in fairly quickly and pretty well. Perhaps there is some edge in there somewhere, but my information flow isn't great enough to allow me to have an inside angle against investment banks. While I do think that fundamentals get priced-in fairly well I do not think that markets are perfectly efficient as there is a clear process of price discovery. The chart, however, is a pretty clear depiction of where price has moved and I don't need to concern myself as much for the reasons as to 'why,' if I can focus enough on the 'what.'
I think there are two tenets of technical analysis that are of importance: A) Trends exist, and there's often a reason for them. and B) Support and Resistance can mark inflection points in a market, because trends do not price in linearly. It's the higher-lows that show you bulls' response to pullbacks and that's what really allows for that next higher-high to show up. It's a clear illustration of shifting sentiment, shown perfectly on the chart.
And this is what takes us back to that quote from Mr. John Templeton...
It's when price is forming those highs that we tend to get most excited. Because we can see it - visually - with our own eyes, that trend or bias showing up in real-time. This is when we might get FOMO coursing through us, compelling us to buy even if it doesn't seem smart, even if we haven't thought about 'what if,' even if we haven't entertained the very rational idea that 'this may not last forever.'
It's just part of the human condition, really, and it's why a lot of retail traders end up buying tops as they let their excitement get the better of them.
Now, Mr. Templeton said the best time to buy is the time of maximum pessimism and that leans very contrarian. And taken to an extreme, this can be an excuse to fade every move that shows up or every breakout that takes place, and that can be a painful way to go about matters. But, there may be a way to hedge that statement in a trend-riding basis as saying the optimal time to establish longs is when the prospect of a reversal has started to rise. Or, to put otherwise, it's when that excitement isn't coursing on a fresh breakout; and instead, after a pullback that has shown that the trend is not infallible. It's when the uber bulls couldn't imagine anything other than continued rip in the trend grow silent, instead fearing that they may get caught holding longs from a top.
In gold the market has been ripping higher for more than a year. But when it seemed most quiet was when it was most opportunistic, such as the bull pennant that brewed in Q4, or the pullbacks that have shown up along the way. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago and it started to seem as though a larger reversal could take hold. But - a clean support hold at 2956 was followed by a doji on the daily chart - and then bulls crowded back in to rush up to another fresh all-time-high.
Again, on Monday of this week another pullback showed up, this time a slighter move with price tilting down to 3200. But bulls responded in a big way and then ran another fresh all-time-high just a day later.
Now, eventually one of these pullbacks could extend and turn into a multi-week or perhaps even multi-month type of event, similar to the Q4 triangle that made up the pennant. But, at this stage that bullish trend that has taken on a parabolic nature continues to press and there's no indication yet that it's over.
There remains support potential and this can be followed for pullback setups. The closest zone is the 3245-3250 area, and if this price comes into play and bulls come in to hold lows around that prior resistance, this could be an illustration of a building higher-low. Below that, 3150-3167 is of interest, as this was resistance earlier in April and, to date, hasn't shown much for support. And below that, there's 3050-3057 which was a point of resistance that also hasn't yet shown as support.
Even the 3k handle can be considered as the April lows rest around the spot of prior resistance, from the March highs, at 2956.
With a trend that's been this one-sided there's a lot of room for possible profit taking; but it's not until there's been a clearer shift of sentiment that we can say that the trend is dead.
Does this mean that we'll be able to predict anything? Because the trick of Mr. Templeton's quote is that predicting 'maximum pessimism' or 'maximum optimism' is just as pointless as trying to predict price. Because it is price itself that will denominate that sentiment! If price continues to tank then, yeah, people are going to get more and more pessimistic and that does not mean that it's automatically a great time to buy (nor sell)!
No, but waiting for pullbacks in clear trends is a way to take a risk-efficient approach towards speculation, while trying to keep our own emotions in check and allowing for us to stick to a plan. Which, for a trader, is one of the more pragmatic ways that one can go about the endeavor of speculation.
James Stanley
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly ANALYSIS: UNPRECEDENTED Rally ContinuesOANDA:XAUUSD market continues pushing to higher and higher levels. The market went up approximately 7% in a single week. This was a big upward move, if not the biggest upward move in one week this year. As the market approaches the 3250 level, we can see some price deceleration. This may lead to a corrective move. After such an impulse move, the market usually consolidates. Therefore Monday and Tuesday might be sideways move days.
On the daily timeframe, the price is creating an ABC move which potentially completes around the 3300 level. If Monday's candle opens with a gap up, this suggests the price may surge again. However, if we get a pullback, then we can look for buying opportunities below the 3200 support level or the previous day's low.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Gold short potentially under way.The highlighted area on the 1hr chart 2pm Friday 17th.
Price breaks and hold below the Kijun Baseline, with adequate volume. I took a small sell at this point which quickly moved 300 pips over the following hour, before pulling back slowly over the rest of the evening. If price fails to break back (and hold) above the baseline, I will be looking at heavy shorts, possibly Monday or Tuesday after the bank holiday.
Gold is strong and is adjusting today!The rise and fall broke the pattern of the morning cycle, which means that this wave of unilateral rising from 3211 to 3357 can temporarily come to an end. This time the whole increase was as high as 146 US dollars, and there was no correction throughout the whole process. This kind of extreme market situation is rare in history. The bold will die of overeating and the timid will starve to death. It is very suitable for novices who have just entered the market. Blindly chasing the long position will have a miraculous effect, which is the so-called novice protection period.
As the market will be closed tomorrow for Easter, gold is destined not to rise like yesterday, but will enter a period of shock correction. The price fell from 3357 to 3320 in the morning, reaching 37 US dollars. In the afternoon, we should focus on the pressure at 3342 and try to participate in the short position to see the decline. The strong pressure is at the high point of 3356-3357. If it does not break the high point during the day, we can still go short at night. The support below is 3320-3305. If it touches 3305, we can go long to see the rebound.
XAUUSD Technicals🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: ~ $3,345 – $3,360
Minor Resistance: ~ $3,330
Pivot Zone: ~ $3,305 – $3,310
Support: Around $3,290 (not shown but implied if break continues)
💡 Price Action Insights:
Strong bearish candle broke below the pivot with high volume (big red arrow). This could be a liquidity grab or a genuine breakdown.
The chart shows a possible fakeout scenario – price dips below pivot, sucks in sellers, then reverses to trap them and push higher.
Projection path suggests:
Bounce back above pivot
Break minor resistance
Push to resistance zone (~$3,360)
Confirmation needed: A strong bullish candle reclaiming the pivot on increasing volume.
🧠 Volume Clue:
Notice the volume spike on the break of pivot.
If this is absorption (buyers taking in sells), reversal is likely.
If follow-through selling comes next, expect deeper drop.
✅ What to Watch:
If price reclaims the pivot with a strong green candle, expect a push to $3,330–$3,345+; if it’s rejected with a weak bounce, it may drop back to $3,290–$3,280; and if it breaks below the pivot again on high volume, anticipate a bearish trend continuation.
Gold Price Rollercoaster: Is the Rally Just Beginning?The gold price has had a pretty crazy six days, jumping from 3,014 USD on April 9, 2025, to 3,357 USD on April 17 – that’s a solid 11%+ gain. So, what’s going on now? Is the gold rally over, or could we see even more upside? Let’s break it down.
🔥 What’s driving the gold price?
The big reason behind the recent surge is the trade war between the US and China. Trump has slapped new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, which has shaken things up in the markets. The Fed has also warned that these tariffs are bigger than expected, and could slow down growth and increase inflation.
When things get uncertain, investors tend to rush to safe havens like gold, and that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The demand for gold is up, and so is the price.
📉 What does the ECB rate cut mean?
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 0.25% today, dropping from 4.5% to 4.25%. They’re trying to help the economy out and ease inflation.
Lower rates mean fixed-income investments aren’t as attractive, which makes gold a better option. But, the US Fed has made it clear they won’t cut rates before June 2025, which could strengthen the US dollar and make gold a little less appealing.
🕊️ What if there’s a trade deal?
Now, imagine there’s a breakthrough – a trade deal, fairer tariffs, and everyone’s calming down. That could change things for gold:
📉 Less risk = less demand for gold: If things chill out, less capital will flow into gold.
💵 Stronger Dollar?: A trade deal could make the US dollar stronger, which isn’t necessarily great for gold. But Trump has made it clear that he doesn't want a strong dollar, since it makes US goods less competitive abroad. Even if the dollar does strengthen, it might put pressure on gold since it becomes more expensive for people using other currencies.
🔁 Money shifts: If things get calmer, investors might move away from gold and back into stocks or bonds for better returns.
So, a deal could definitely slow down or even end this gold rally.
🧭 What does this mean for investors?
Daytraders
For day traders, the current ups and downs can offer some good opportunities, but they also come with risks. The markets are super sensitive to news about the trade war and rate cuts. Quick gains are possible, but you’ve got to be careful. If a trade deal happens, expect the classic “Sell the News” scenario where the market cools off.
Medium-Term Investors (1 Month)
Over the next few weeks, we’ll see if more trade war news or central bank decisions impact the gold price. The rally could keep going, but nothing is guaranteed. If you’re in it for the medium-term, keep your positions flexible and manage risk closely. A trade deal could be bad news for gold, though.
Long-Term Investors
Long-term, gold is still a great way to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. The current trends could help gold prices, but keep in mind there could be some ups and downs. If the price drops due to a trade deal, it might actually be a good opportunity to buy.
📊 The Bottom Line
Gold has been on a hot streak lately, driven by the trade war and central bank moves. Whether this rally continues or cools down depends on what happens next. A trade deal could bring a correction. So, keep an eye on things and adjust your strategy accordingly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
3400 on markH4 TIMEFRAME
Gold is on Rising channel upto 3400 mark !
BEARISH scanario:
if the candle closes below 3320 support area ,then target will be 3300 in first round then 3280 milestone. Where we have again buying opportunities upto 3400.
BULLISH Scenario
On the other hand, candle closes above 3330-3335 Bos then this Rising will be again active and have again momentum towards 3380 then 3405 on mark.