gold 3270 13th june, and 3050 6th julyGold on its way. Patience.
Then 4400 ath imo. regardless, 3k ish on the table in the meantime
GOLDCFD trade ideas
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important supports & resistances for GOLD XAUUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
GOLD: Short Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3384.7
Stop - 3393.2
Take - 3368.8
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Gold delivering excellent opportunitiesTechnical analysis: Gold remains top tier safe-haven at the moment and prolonged weakness on DX isn’t going in Sellers favor. #3,357.80 (news aftermath) test way above #3,352.80 benchmark test sequence (Gold tests record High’s on Monthly basis) was quiet straightforward, where break of mentioned level has #3,400.80 psychological benchmark as an Buying Target to pursue. Gold didn’t appeared as underpriced since by my estimations, these are fair Technical values on Gold as this could be the first Month lately to close in hard gains. Downwards dynamics should start pressuring smaller charts however (Selling options will certainly appear) as current area should be Traded / Sold between local Top’s (what I successfully did).
My position: I have waited for Gold to Bottom out near #3,318.80 - #3,322.80 and aggressively Bought the Bottom which delivered spectacular returns (monitoring DX on Selling sequence which added significant Buying pressure). Keep in mind that Gold has #3,400.80 benchmark on the cards now as an decent possibility.
THE KOG REPORT - NFPQuick one today as we haven't had much time to put together the report.
Instead, the red box levels are shared below and the extreme red boxes are on the chart.
We have key level 3365 which needs to break as shown and key level 3345 which needs to break downside.
RED BOX TARGETS
Break above 3365 for 3366, 337, 3385, 3390, 3406 and 3420 in extension of the move
Break below 3350 for 3345, 3336, 3329, 3320, 3310 and 3298 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations for TodayYesterday, gold surged then pulled back in a washout move triggered by CPI data, before rebounding again in the evening on news-driven sentiment, closing the daily chart bullish. This morning's opening saw further rally breaking new highs, confirming strong bullish momentum. Today's strategy remains buying on dips with the uptrend.
On the 4H chart, gold stabilized at the mid-Bollinger band before rebounding with consecutive bullish candles. Moving averages are bullishly aligned and Bollinger bands are widening—all signaling strong bullishness. However, as the triangle consolidation range remains unbroken, chasing the rally is unadvised. Focus on dip-buying: key supports at 3,345–3,340 and 3,325; resistances at 3,385 and 3,400, where potential shorting opportunities may be considered based on price momentum.
XAUUSD
buy@3340-3350
tp:3370-3380
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Quick update: I announced #3,400.80 testAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have waited for Gold to Bottom out near #3,318.80 - #3,322.80 and aggressively Bought the Bottom which delivered spectacular returns (monitoring DX on Selling sequence which added significant Buying pressure). Keep in mind that Gold has #3,400.80 benchmark on the cards now as an decent possibility."
I have announced #3,400.80 benchmark test since #3,350's and even though I expected the upside extension, my Profit margin (over #200k EUR in #3 weeks) was more than enough and I observed Price-action from sidelines.
My position: Gold is Trading on Bullish extension due Middle East crisis escalation. I am looking at my calculated my re-Buy zones to Buy every dip on Gold and continue Scalping (Buy orders only) towards #3,452.80 benchmark potential extension. However if Gold closes the week below #3,400.80 benchmark, Gold will continue ranging and I will alter my perspective (less likely).
Gold bulls take control as geopolitical risk take center stage!Gold prices advanced during the Asian trading hours, touching a fresh daily high around the $3,317 mark. The move comes amid a combination of factors boosting demand for the yellow metal, notably dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions.
The US Dollar weakened following Friday's softer-than-expected inflation data, which has strengthened market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025. Investors are now positioning for looser monetary policy, which typically enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
In parallel, geopolitical risks continue to dominate market sentiment. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with renewed US-China trade tensions, have weighed on risk appetite and fueled safe-haven inflows into gold.
From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD faces immediate resistance in the $3,355–$3,375 supply zone. A sustained move above this area could open the door to further gains. Conversely, any near-term pullback might find initial support near the $3,300 psychological level, with stronger buying interest expected around the $3,280–$3,278 region.
Insist on shorting gold on ralliesToday we made a total profit of 350 pips in 2 short trades. First, we shorted gold near 3345, and when gold fell to around 3330, we manually closed the order to lock in profits; the second time, gold rebounded sharply with the help of CPI data, and we seized the opportunity to short gold again near 3360, and ended the transaction by hitting TP: 3340. We accurately grasped the profit of gold shorting.
At present, gold is in a narrow range of fluctuations near the 3330 mark. Relatively speaking, gold is still in a weak position. Although gold has rebounded sharply with the help of the positive CPI data, it has shown a long upper shadow in the candle chart due to the rapid retracement, which has strengthened the resistance above and limited the rebound space of gold in the short term. In addition, the morphological structure shows signs of building a head and shoulders top structure. The resistance area in the short term is 3345-3355; followed by 3360-3370. Although gold is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations near the 3330 mark, it does not show obvious signs of support. It is easy to fall below the area near 3330 in a weak situation. The relatively strong support is in the 3320-3310 area, followed by the area near 3300-3290.
So for short-term trading, I still advocate taking the 3345-3355 area as resistance first and continue to short gold!
Gold on the Rise – Will It Break New Highs?Hey traders! What’s your view on XAUUSD?
Yesterday, gold surged over 400 pips and the rally hasn't slowed down. Price is now hovering around $3,428, right below a key resistance above the all-time high.
Why the spike? US CPI came in lower than expected, boosting hopes for a Fed rate cut. The dollar weakened, tensions in the Middle East grew, and central banks are buying gold aggressively.
Personally, I expect a breakout. What about you – will gold pull back or continue its climb?
Drop your thoughts in the comments!
H1 pullback in bullish H4 marketThe market is at a point where we must sell, it's at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so prepare for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the lows, it will continue to go down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, that is, a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks; it is not an ABC, but 5 bearish waves.
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Stop Loss 🛑: "Thief’s SL hides at the nearest swing low (3H TF: 3250.00) OR below the last daily candle wick. Adjust based on your risk appetite & lot size!"
Target 🏴☠️: 3490.00 (or escape early if the cops—err, bears—show up!)
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GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends
#gold #dollar
Gold Trade Plan 12/06/2025Dear Traders,
Market is manipulated, and DXY broken last LL ,
i expect price continue upward movement to 3390-3392 then (looking for some small correction)
Regards,
Alireza
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 16 - Jun 20]The unrest in the Middle East this week has boosted safe-haven demand for gold, pushing it above $3,400 an ounce.
While gold has broken several recent technical resistance levels, it is unlikely that it will hit a new record high next week. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran provides safe-haven support, but historically, gold rallies driven by geopolitical events tend to be short-lived.
Gold is currently outperforming the US dollar, which has struggled to attract safe-haven funds.
Iran launched a retaliatory airstrike on Israel on Friday night (June 13), Reuters reported. Air raid sirens sounded across Israel and authorities urged residents to take shelter in shelters.
The Israeli military said Iran fired nearly 100 missiles, most of which were intercepted or missed their targets.
Israel's Channel 12 reported two people were seriously injured, eight were moderately injured and 34 suffered shrapnel injuries.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had carried out military operations against dozens of targets in Israel.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' news website released a message that evening saying the "powerful and precise" counterattack was in retaliation for Israel's "invasion" of many parts of Iran and the killing of many senior military commanders, nuclear experts and Iranian civilians, including children.
Wider Middle East Conflict Could Erupt
Israel destroyed Tehran's military command system early Friday and struck key Iranian nuclear facilities. The Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards, cited data saying the Israeli attack killed dozens of people in Iran and wounded more than 300.
Israel has carried out large-scale airstrikes on multiple locations in Iran since early Friday, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets.
Reuters said Israel's attacks on Iran during the day and Iran's retaliation have raised concerns about a broader conflict in the region.
All Eyes on the Fed
While gold will continue to be affected by geopolitical developments, market attention will also be on the Federal Reserve, particularly Chairman Powell, who will speak after next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Economists generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. However, expectations are growing that Powell could begin paving the way for a rate cut later this year.
The latest inflation data and signs of a slowing US economy have given the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. However, growing geopolitical uncertainty may prompt some market participants to adjust their expectations.
Overall assessment of the basic environment
The gold market in particular will still receive absolute support when there are too many risks appearing, from geopolitical developments to interest rate prospects, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Therefore, in general vision, gold is considered the top safe-haven asset in the global unstable environment and it tends to increase in price in the current context.
Economic Data to Watch Next Week
Monday: State Manufacturing Survey, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
Tuesday: US Retail Sales
Wednesday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday: US Markets Closed for Black Lives Matter Day, Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Meeting, Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting
Friday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has almost achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in last week's weekly issue, initially at $3,371, then at the full price point and finally at $3,435. Gold can still continue to increase in price as technical conditions still absolutely support the short-term trend channel, while the long-term trend channel and the nearest support is the EMA21.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping up after receiving support from 50 and is still far from overbought territory, indicating that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead.
To sum up, as long as gold remains within/above the price channel, it remains bullish in the short term. Any dips that do not break below the price channel should only be considered as short-term corrections or a new buying opportunity.
Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3497 - 3495⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3501
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3374 - 3376⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3370
Gold: Monitor Middle East Developments Over the WeekendAmid escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk-off sentiment surged,
sending gold soaring past the 3414 resistance and peaking near 3450,
before retracing and rebounding off the 3414 support zone.
⚠️ While this was a high-volume breakout, it was news-driven,
so keep in mind:
📌 If tensions ease over the weekend, a pullback on Monday is highly likely
📌 If tensions escalate, another bullish run would be expected
—
🔍 Technical Outlook:
🧭 4H chart: 9-count nearing completion — overbought signals building
🧭 2H chart: MACD showing early signs of a bearish crossover; potential divergence forming
🧭 1D chart: Breakout with volume confirms bullish trend, but risk of short-term correction remains
—
📌 Key Price Zones:
🔺 Resistance: 3468 – 3487 – 3500
🔻 Support: 3414 (critical) – 3400 – 3392
⚠️ If broken, next downside targets: 3378 – 3367
—
📈 Strategy Suggestions:
As we head into Monday:
✅ Consider selling on rallies if geopolitical tensions ease
✅ If tensions worsen, follow the momentum — but watch for reversal signs
SELL XAUUSDXAUUSD bulls are exhausted and price will start falling from this supply area. The cannel further explains the current trend XAUUSD price is trading in. Price may sink even deeper.
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,622 (VIDEO UPDATE)A much needed video update on Gold bull’s & how buyers will be targeting $3,622 - $3,700 in the coming months.
Confluences👇
⭕️Wave 4 Complete (3 Sub-Wave Correction).
⭕️Pending Liquidity Above Wave 3 High.
⭕️Sellers Failing to Close Below 0.618% Zone.
Gold V-shaped reversal still has room to rise In the morning, the market was under pressure at 3328, and two consecutive big negative lines fell to the low of 3302, breaking through the lower track of the descending flag consolidation channel, forming an effective break. 3317 was originally the confirmation point of the channel counter-pressure, and it was also the 618 split resistance at the time. Then the middle track was lost, and the trend was bearish, so it tried to rebound but continued to fall under pressure.
But the market immediately made a V-shaped reversal, breaking through the morning high of 3328, and had attacked to 3342 before the US market. The European session was volatile and strong, and with the help of a pullback before and after the U.S. session to lure short sellers, there is still hope for a second rise
The focus of the support for the retracement is on two positions: one is the 3322 line, corresponding to the middle track and 50% split support; the other is 3318, corresponding to the 618 split support. If it stabilizes after touching it, it will most likely point to the 3348 counter-pressure position.
If the pressure of 3348 cannot be broken, there is still a possibility of repeated fluctuations in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the secondary low point appears when it pulls back to further consolidate the support structure. If the market directly breaks through and stands above 3348, 3293 may have been confirmed as a short-term low.
The recent trading strategy ideas are all realized, and all the points are predicted accurately. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with us!
Gold: down on jobs dataThe price of gold had a mixed week, with around 1% drop on Friday's trading session, after better than expected US jobs data. The non-farm payrolls added 139K new jobs in May, which was a bit higher from anticipated. The strong US jobs market suggests the possibility that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the coming period.
The highest weekly level of gold was at $3,4K, however, it is ending the week at the level of $3.310. The RSI continues to hold levels modestly above the 50 level, which suggests that the market is still not clearly ready to start the path toward the oversold market side. Gold daily lows found a supporting line at MA50. Both MA50 and MA200 continue to move as two parallel lines with an uptrend.
The uptrend of the price of gold is still holding on charts. Despite the recent correction, there are two consecutive higher highs on charts, as occurred at the end of May and the one from the previous week. This formation in the technical analysis suggests the probability that the price of gold is heading toward the next peak, probably around $3.430, which was the highest level reached at the beginning of May this year. However, this scenario is for a longer time period. For the week ahead, there is a probability that the price of gold will test the $3,3K level but there is no clear indication that this level might be breached toward the downside. On the opposite side, charts are pointing toward the $3.350, with some lower probability that these levels might be pushed further to the upside.
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the strategy of going long on gold at relatively low levels was once again precisely fulfilled. The morning strategy clearly suggested opening long positions within the range of 3400 - 3410. As expected, the price of gold once again surged to around the 3445 level, and profits were successfully secured once more.
The hourly chart of gold shows a volatile upward trend. Driven by risk aversion in the early morning, it surged rapidly but fell back for correction after hitting resistance at 3444 during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it stabilized at 3412 and rallied again. The previous large bearish candlestick was more of a minor shakeout—after washing out floating chips, it has now regained its upward momentum.
Maintain a strongly bullish approach for now. The 3415-3410 range forms a key support zone, and long positions can be continued above this level. Upper resistance remains at 3445-3450; a valid breakout could lead to further gains toward 3475 and beyond. However, be aware that a sustained rally may trigger a pullback due to overbought indicators or divergences. For operations, consider going long near support and exercise caution when chasing highs near resistance
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3315
tp:3430-3450
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
