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XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal Zone FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025 Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to: 🔻 ADP NFP Miss: ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears. 📊 Oil Inventory Surplus: Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts. 📰 Trump Tariff Headlines: Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam. Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal. 📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec): CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility 🧠 Market Sentiment Summary: Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FaithdrivenTrades
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound. 📉 Operational ideas: Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area; If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term. 📌Key position reference: Upper pressure: 3295, 3311 Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255 Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
XAUUSD – Gold at a Key AreaGold is now in a crucial zone with short potential. If the market provides a valid bearish signal, I’ll take the short. But if this zone breaks and confirms with a pullback, I’ll switch bias and go long. 💡 Remember: We don’t control the market — we just try to profit using structure, setups, and solid risk management. 📌 Always risk max 1% per trade. If the market goes against your bias, you only lose 1% — not your whole account. 🧠 One trade won’t make you rich, But one reckless trade can destroy everything. No gambling. Just discipline, structure, and smart execution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ForexCSP
Gold: Smart Money or Trap Money? Long Setup with a twistDescription > Gold – Long Setup Breakdown After a clean break to a new Higher High, price pulled back aggressively on volume. A lot of traders will label that red spike as bearish — but let’s unpack what’s really happening. 1. Structure Held Despite the drop, the move respected the previous demand zone — a classic smart money move to test liquidity before continuation. 2. Volume Spike (Red Candle): Could be: A shakeout of late buyers, or Aggressive shorting that got absorbed just above the key structure. 3. Quick Reclaim + Tight Base: Price reclaimed the zone fast and started building a tight consolidation just above the reclaimed zone — that’s usually a sign of pre-expansion energy. 4. Buy Stop Cluster Potential: The current compression hints at stops above being used as fuel for the next impulsive leg. I'm positioning long here — not because of the breakout, but because of the retest that held above demand with signs of absorption and continuation. But I want your take: Is this absorption by smart money or a bull trap? Would you wait for a second retest, or is this the real deal? How do you interpret that red volume spike? Drop your thoughts 👇 Let's build sharper analysis through debate.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by theeOperator90
Gold Retests Ascending TrendlineGold has pulled back to a key technical level, despite a mix of conditions that would usually support higher prices. This signals a potential shift in how investors are positioning for risk, inflation, and growth. Gold Ignores the Playbook You’d be forgiven for expecting gold to be higher. The past week saw softer US dollar action, rising bets on interest rate cuts, and inflation numbers that nudged uncomfortably higher. On paper, these are the sort of developments that traditionally give gold a boost. But the metal barely blinked. The May core PCE figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose more than expected to 2.7%. Yet bond markets took it in their stride, with rate futures continuing to price in a strong chance of easing by September. At the same time, the US dollar lost ground, with the dollar index down over 1% on the week. That sort of move would usually feed straight through into dollar-denominated commodities like gold. This time, it didn’t. Part of the answer lies in geopolitics. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has cooled tensions that previously underpinned gold’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, equity markets keep printing new highs, led by tech and growth stocks. Investors are shifting from protection to participation, favouring assets that benefit from improving trade flows and global demand. The latest US-China trade deal, focused on rare earth exports, only adds to that narrative. For now, risk-on is winning. All Eyes on the Trendline While the macro backdrop has turned more complex, the technical picture for gold remains clearly defined. After a strong rally into April, the market has entered a period of consolidation. A lower swing high formed in May, which was retested and rejected in June. That rejection triggered the most recent two-week slide, bringing the precious metal back to its rising trendline. This trendline, in place since December 2024, has guided the broader uptrend and held firm on three previous tests. Once again, it finds itself under pressure. Whether it holds this time is an open question. Trendlines are only as good as the demand that supports them, and in a consolidation phase, that support can often be patchy. The nature of consolidation is a kind of controlled drift, plenty of movement, but not much commitment. If the trendline does give way, that doesn’t necessarily spell the end of gold’s bull cycle. But it would likely open the door to a deeper correction, with the May swing lows in play. That area also aligns with the volume-weighted average price anchored to the December 2024 lows which is a key reference point for longer-term participants. For now, gold is in wait-and-see mode. It is still above support, but no longer behaving like a market in control. If the broader risk-on mood continues, we may see further rotation away from safe havens. But if the growth narrative starts to wobble, don’t be surprised if gold finds its voice again. Gold Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by Capitalcom
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. I still have my runner running from yesterday's trade. Saying that, I am waiting to see if we move up , stay in the consolidation range, or push down some more. It is mid week, and I am in no hurry to rush or force a trade. Just need to wait to see what Pre NY volume brings in an hour from now. 3 hours until the NY open. BIg G gets a shout out. Be well and trade the trend. Let's see how the current 1 hour and 4 hour candle close, I will update or post another chart in a bit. Thank you so much for checking out my chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by musclemilk0075
XAU/USD (GOLD) H1 Chart Outlook – Supply & Demand PerspectiveGold is currently consolidating in a tight range near the 3355–3358 zone, showing indecision ahead of a potential breakout. Based on supply and demand dynamics, here’s what to watch: --- 🔼 Bullish Scenario If the H4 candle closes above 3365, this would confirm a bullish breakout above the immediate supply zone. In that case, expect upside momentum to target key resistance levels: 🎯 3385 – Minor resistance 🎯 3400 – Major resistance and potential reversal zone A confirmed breakout with strong volume could open room for a short-term bullish rally. --- 🔽 Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if the H4 candle closes below 3340, it would signal weakness and a possible rejection from the current range. This breakdown could shift the momentum to the downside, targeting the following support levels: 🛑 3320 – Near-term support 🛑 3300 – Critical demand zone Failure to hold 3300 could indicate further bearish pressure in the coming sessions.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by FX_Mark0
1
Gold (XAUUSD) – FRL Classic Double Bottom After CorrectionGold forms a clean double bottom after a correction within an upward channel. The neckline aligns precisely with the 100 MA – a classic Fractal Reversal Law (FRL) setup, indicating a phase shift back into the bullish structure. Why This Setup: ✅ Trend Structure: Gold remains inside its upward channel, respecting each phase with corrective trends that end with clear reversal patterns. ✅ FRL Double Bottom: • The corrective downtrend completes with a double bottom. • The neckline is strictly horizontal, matching the start of the last impulse (FRL principle). • Alignment with the 100 MA confirms the phase and scale. ✅ Confirmation: We wait for a full H4 candle close above the neckline for entry confirmation. Trade Plan: 📈 Entry: After H4 confirmation above the neckline or on a retest of the neckline. 🎯 Targets: Take Profits are aligned with the key levels from the chart: • TP1: First resistance in the mid-channel zone. • TP2: Next resistance level within the channel. • TP3: Upper channel boundary. 🛑 Stop Loss: Placed just below the smaller low of the double bottom, maintaining a clean and logical risk structure. FRL Key Notes: Every correction is also a trend that ends with a reversal pattern. The neckline = the beginning of the last impulse, always horizontal. The 100 MA is used to align the timeframe with the market phase.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by borschenkovitc
XAUUSD/GOLD Geopolitical conflicts have escalated again. Next week is a week of heavy news. How will the gold price focus next week? How to trade? Look at the news preview first. 1. Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Palestine-Israel conflict, Iran-Israel conflict. 2. ADP data, NFP data. 3. Tariff deadline. The above three news are enough to cause drastic fluctuations in the gold price. On Friday, the New York market followed my expectations. After rebounding around 3282, it fell back. Finally closed around 3274. The impact of the weekend news is huge. From the news perspective, the opening price of next Monday will be higher than the closing price on Friday. In terms of operation, you can pay attention to buying at a low price after the market opens.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ludvig_Band_King
XAUUSD Nears Key Rejection ZoneHello all dear traders! Currently, XAUUSD is still in a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows – a characteristic of a market controlled by sellers. Now the price is rebounding to an important resistance zone – which was previously a demand zone but was broken. It coincides with the EMA cluster and falls right into a technical confluence area. This is a very typical "retest" before the price continues to fall. If you have experience, you will know: there is nothing more dangerous than buying in a downtrend, just because the price is recovering. On the macro side, the current context is not favorable for gold: Middle East tensions have temporarily subsided, the USD is recovering slightly, US bond yields are still high, and US inflation data is showing signs of cooling down. That is: gold is losing its role as a haven and a hedge against risks – money will gradually withdraw from gold if there are no more unexpected fluctuations. Given the convergence of these technical and fundamental factors, I am leaning strongly towards a continuation of the downside, with the possibility of a further decline towards the lower boundary of the channel. Traders should wait for a clear price reaction at the resistance zone – if they see a strong rejection signal (e.g. pinbar, engulfing candle, or exhausted volume), it is a very good opportunity to enter a position.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGlobal
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Just a quick post with a revised area of interest on the 4 hour chart. I will check to see how the overnight charts do for gold's direction. I will post during the end of the London session or when the Pre NY volume comes in tomorrow morning. Be well and trade the trend. Big G gets a shout out and all my thanks. Thank you so much and don't get caught trading in the range, wait for a break and close and if the lower time frames match up, see if the set up plays out. DYOR and never try to force or rush a trade. I did all that years ago and just lost money and / or blew threw the account.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by musclemilk0075
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Taking a look at the 4 hour chart, I have marked the potential scalp sell / buy trade set ups. Lower time frame confirmation is a must. I am not trading today as the NY market is closed. I am not trying to do any range trading. Be well and have a great weekend. Today is a holiday here in the USA. We are celebrating breaking away from England, which we see today is George Orwell's 1984. Shout out for freedom and to Big G. Be well and trade the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by musclemilk0075
Excellent opportunities on GoldAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have engaged #4 Scalp orders throughout yesterday's session (all in Profit) and will continue to do so however on the other side (Buying) from my key entry points. Keep in mind that overall trend remains Bullish and Trade accordingly." As I expected upside extension as per above, I have waited for #3,352.80 - #3,357.80 my local Top's for the sequence and started aggressively Selling Gold from #3,348.80 first, then #3,352.80 #4 aggressive Selling Scalps and #3,357.80 final two Scalps which I held all the way towards #3,345.80 Support for the fractal (cca #130k Profits Intra-day). My position: Since #3,337.80 was neckline for upside Bull structure, I was aware if it gets invalidated to the downside, it will open doors for #3,327.80 extension (which held twice throughout late U.S. and Asian session). I don't expect much Selling action today however Bulls need another Fundamental push to invalidate wall of Resistances at #3,340's and #3,350's. I will continue Scalping as opportunity arise / no Swing orders.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for July 1.Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3400, support 3250 4-hour chart resistance 3374, support 3300 1-hour chart resistance 3355, support 3330 4-hour chart bearish, but 1H chart has reversed bullish. Technically, gold formed a double bottom support near 3247 and has entered the B wave rebound, but beware of the C wave decline that may start at any time. Gold price accelerated upward after breaking through the key resistance of 3300. 3300 is the 0.50 position of the previous decline. Today's market rose slowly by 50 dollars without a callback. The bullish rally will continue at least until the second half of the NY market before a callback occurs. The risky approach is to follow the trend and buy at the current price. The safe way is to wait for the callback to around 3325~3330 before buying. BUY: 3350 BUY: 3330
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold (XAUUSD) short trade idea based on 1H chart 🪙 GOLD (XAUUSD) SHORT SETUP – Liquidity Grab Play 📉🔥 Here’s a potential short setup forming on Gold (1H timeframe): 🔹 Liquidity Sweep: Price just tapped into a key supply zone after an aggressive bullish move, grabbing liquidity above recent highs (marked $$$). This is a classic setup for a potential reversal or retracement. 🔹 Premium Zone Entry: The short position is taken right after price tapped the supply zone between 3340–3354, showing early signs of exhaustion. 🔹 Trade Setup: Entry: Near 3341.30 SL: Just above supply at ~3354.13 TP: Down near the recent demand/imbalance at 3263.42 RRR: High reward potential with minimal risk. 🔹 Confluence Factors: Price filled imbalance with strong momentum. Reversal likely if no continuation above supply. Key psychological levels and liquidity engineered below price. 📊 Execution Plan: Watch lower timeframe confirmations (M15/M5 rejection or engulfing). Manage stop based on how price behaves around 3350. ⚠️ As always, risk smart. Let the market confirm your bias before committing fully. Note: wait for confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Solidwealth
1
Gold on relief rallyAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: Quick update: No Swing orders today, only aggressive Scalps similar to Scalp orders I mentioned above from my key re-Buy points. If #3,300.80 is recovered, newly formed Bullish structure will push for #3,313.80 and #3,327.80 test. If #3,300.80 benchmark is preserved, I will still keep Buying (Scalp only however). I will have Gold's major move revealed after today's session." Technical analysis: I have been aware that another failed attempt to invalidate #3,272.80 - #3,278.80 local Support zone will most likely result into firm rejection and yet another push towards #3,302.80 psychological benchmark and ultimately the #3,327.80 level which represents Short-term Resistance line which is now invalidated to the upside (as discussed above already). Keep in mind that the current Bullish Short-term set-up can offer a great opportunity for those who missed the last rally to enter at almost (# +1.00%) of the Price so many Sellers which were liquidated will now engage multiple Buying orders so Buying pressure will be significantly Higher. Gold is extending the Trade nicely inside the healthy Hourly 4 chart's Ascending Channel and after failed Support zone reversal. Price-action has even more probabilities now to test #3,352.80 psychological benchmark. Gold is Fundamentally Bullish as well due Tariffs announcement. My position: I have engaged #4 Scalp orders throughout yesterday's session (all in Profit) and will continue to do so however on the other side (Buying) from my key entry points. Keep in mind that overall trend remains Bullish and Trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]OANDA:XAUUSD opened the week at $3,246/oz due to low summer liquidity, easing recession fears and easing geopolitical tensions. However, they later recovered to $3,365/oz due to concerns about a possible re-escalation of the trade war, as some countries faced obstacles in negotiations with the US ahead of the July 9 tariff delay deadline. By the end of the week, prices had adjusted to $3,311/oz and closed at $3,335/oz. In addition, the US Senate has passed the OBBBA tax cut and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump. While it helps prevent the risk of a short-term default, the bill could increase the US public debt by more than $3,000 billion over the next 10 years, putting pressure on the bond market and raising concerns about the increasing supply of government bonds while demand is weakening. However, US economic data over the weekend put downward pressure on gold. Specifically, the June employment report showed that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) reached 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. At the same time, NFP data for April and May were also adjusted up to 158,000 and 144,000 jobs, respectively. These positive numbers almost erased the expectation that the FED would cut interest rates in July. The FED also reaffirmed its stance on maintaining the current policy due to rising inflationary pressures. Overall, gold prices are still stuck in a range, and a clearer prospect of interest rate cuts from the FED is needed to make a strong breakthrough in the near future. 📌Technically, the $3,310/oz level is now acting as an important support zone for gold prices next week. If this level is broken, prices may continue to fall further to the $3,245/oz area or even lower. On the other hand, the $3,365/oz level is a strong resistance. If gold prices break through this area, there is a high possibility that they will approach the $3,400/oz mark. However, the upward momentum may be restrained afterwards due to profit-taking pressure from investors, especially when the US-China trade negotiations are still ongoing and have not reached a final agreement. Investors tend to be cautious, waiting for clearer signals before opening new positions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3401 - 3399⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3405 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Is Gold Ready for a Breakout or Pullback? | Weekly ForecastIn this video, we dive deep into the gold market analysis for the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025. I break down everything you need to know from last week’s price action — including the surge to $3,360, the impact of the U.S. tax cut and spending bill, and the 2.2% weekly gain despite consolidation. We also look ahead at what to expect this week, including: 📅 July 9 Trade Tariff Deadline 📉 Key U.S. labor data (Initial Jobless Claims) 🏦 Market sentiment around Fed rate cut speculation 📊 Strategic insights based on technical and macro confluence 👉 If you find this content valuable, don’t forget to Vote, Comment, and Subscribe for weekly market breakdowns. 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments: Do you think gold will break above $3,360 this week? Or are we gearing up for a deeper pullback? Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by darcsherry