GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Gold closing the week below our 'premium resistance zone', running roughly 170 PIPS in profit. Hope you all are in sells & running in profit like my Gold Fund investors as this was called live for you.
Don't forget we could also have a possible liquidity zone sitting just above $3,400 like I told you all earlier this week. Just something to be careful of & stay prepared in advance.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. Although I didn't take the trade, you can see the analysis was spot on. A shout out to Big G. I am not trading today, but I will post another chart in a bit. We have the NY open in half an hour or so, let's see how that plays out. Most of the news was good for the US dollar. If you wonder where to watch the numbers to trade spot gold, I use forex factory calendar. Be well and trade the trend.
Gold Trade plan 03/07/2025Dear Trader,
On the 4H chart of XAU/USD, a rising wedge pattern is forming, which is typically a bearish reversal signal. After a significant upward movement, price is currently testing the 3360–3365 resistance area. If the lower boundary of the wedge breaks, the price is likely to drop toward the key support zones:
First support zone: 3330–3340
Second support zone: 3305–3315
If buyers defend these areas, a rebound to the upside may occur. But if the second support also breaks, deeper bearish pressure is likely.
Scenarios:
Bullish: If the price holds above 3365, it may rally toward 3380–3400 resistance.
Bearish: A breakdown from the wedge and loss of 3330 support could trigger a move down to 3310 or lower.
Regards,
Alireza!
GOLD drops sharply to 3300 and found important support areaThe recent bearish momentum on GOLD has met a good support zone and at present we started to see early signs of bullish interest returning, right after we got a beautiful rejection from the zone.
Currently I’m expecting for the price to bounce to the target near 3,390 . If this bullish push continues with strong volume and momentum, I’ll be locking in that bias and planning my entry accordingly. I could get involved right here for a more aggressive entry. It’s a bit riskier, but if the structure confirms, I’m more than happy to take the shot, as sometimes the best trades come when you trust your setup.
This is not financial advice.
Still short gold before breaking 3355After the release of NFP yesterday, gold began to fall sharply from 3352, reaching a low of around 3312; although it has gradually rebounded above 3340, the time span is not short, so the rebound is not strong; and the double top structure successfully constructed by gold in the 3365-3360 area in the short term still plays a technical suppression role in the short term, greatly weakening the rebound potential; and with the decline of gold yesterday, I think before gold recovers the 3352 starting point, gold will also be under pressure in the 3345-3355 area in the short term. If gold cannot successfully break through this area during the rebound, gold is expected to retest the 3330-3320 area again.
Because of the US Independence Day, the gold market will be closed in advance today. It is expected that gold will not have a breakthrough today, so it may be difficult to break through the 3345-3355 area in the short term, so we can still continue to maintain the trading rhythm of shorting gold in terms of trading.
So I think shorting gold still has a lot of profit potential. We can short gold with 3345-3355 area as resistance and look to the target area: 3335-3325-3315.
Failed Breakout Sets the Stage for Bullish Continuation"Boost it, if you like it (Thanks)"
Gold is showing resilience after a failed breakout attempt, bouncing strongly off the 3,250 support zone. This 4H chart suggests bulls are regaining control, with momentum building toward the next key resistance.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Failed Breakout (Failed MTR Structure): Price briefly dipped below the trendline but reversed sharply, invalidating the bearish move.
Dynamic Support: The ascending trendline near 3,250 has held firm, reinforcing bullish structure.
EMA Structure:
15 EMA: 3,323.84
60 EMA: 3,331.61 Price is now trading above both EMAs, signaling bullish momentum.
Current Price: 3,339.0
Target: 3,434.34 – the first major resistance zone before ATH retest.
🧠 Market Psychology:
This setup reflects a classic “shakeout” – weak hands were flushed out below support, only for price to reclaim the level with strength. This often precedes a strong directional move as confidence returns.
🎯 Trade Setup:
Entry: On a confirmed break above 3,345–3,350
Stop Loss: Below 3,325
TP1: 3365
TP2: 3385
Final TP(x): 3,434.34
⚠️ Watchlist:
Monitor price action near 3,360–3,370 for signs of rejection or continuation.
A clean break above 3,434 opens the door for an ATH retest.
#MJTrading
#Gold #XAUUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #FailedBreakout #SupportAndResistance #EMA #BullishSetup #PriceAction #ForexTrading #GoldBulls #MarketPsychology
GOLD 1H – Breakout Retest or a Fragile Bullish Hope?👆🚀Boost it if you like it... (Thank you) 🚀👆
Gold has finally broken out above the descending trendline that has capped price for weeks. We’ve already seen Leg 1, an impulsive rally from the strong support zone, and a textbook retest of the broken trendline.
If bulls hold this level, a Leg 2 continuation could unfold.
Key Factors to Watch:
✅ Strong demand zone fueling the first leg up
✅ Clean breakout and retest of descending resistance
✅ Price still hovering around EMAs (15/60)
⚠️ However, the structure is fragile – lack of follow-through could trap late buyers
⚠️ If price loses the retest area decisively, sellers may reclaim control
Trading Insight:
This is a fascinating setup for bulls—but don’t fall in love with it. Stay adaptive. The market doesn’t owe us a second leg higher. Manage risk carefully and remember: probabilities, not certainties.
Trade Safely...
#MJTrading
#Gold #XAUUSD #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutTrading #SupportResistance #PriceAction
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great day on the markets once again. This is an update on our 4H chart idea from Sunday, also playing out perfectly.
We started with our bullish target hit at 3375 with no cross and lock confirming the rejection into completing our bearish target at 3306. We will now need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3375 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3236
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2995
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day?📘 EDUCATIONAL POST: Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day? Let’s Break It Down
Alright, traders—before you start thinking the sky is falling, let’s look this chart straight in the face and get real.
⸻
🔍 The Setup Right Now
Here’s what’s showing up:
✅ A bullish pennant forming up top (potential continuation higher).
✅ A big head and shoulders pattern in the middle (bearish).
✅ VWAP bands ranging from ~3,257 to ~3,392.
✅ Volume is underwhelming—426k vs 582k average.
✅ A big target line all the way down near 3,000.
This mix of signals can be confusing. Let’s separate the hype from what’s actually possible.
⸻
🎯 Q: Can the market collapse to 3,000 tomorrow?
Short Answer:
No.
Here’s Why:
1️⃣ Move Size:
• Current price is ~3,357.
• Target is ~3,000.
• That’s a -357 point drop (~10.6%) in one session.
• For gold CFDs, this would be an extreme event only seen in major crises (think 2008 or March 2020).
2️⃣ Volume Context:
• Today’s volume is below average.
• Big crashes are usually preceded by heavy distribution—this isn’t showing yet.
3️⃣ VWAP Anchors:
• The lower VWAP band sits at 3,257.
• Reaching 3,000 would require breaking through 3,257 support, 3,100, and months of prior buying interest.
4️⃣ Market Environment:
• It’s the July 4th holiday in the U.S.—liquidity is thin.
• Thin markets can gap lower but rarely hold a massive drop without a big catalyst (e.g., credit crisis, war headlines).
5️⃣ Pattern Confirmation:
• Yes, the head and shoulders pattern is visible.
• But to confirm it, you need:
🔹 A clear break of the neckline with double average volume.
🔹 Follow-through that pushes below 3,257.
• None of this has happened yet.
⸻
✅ What’s Realistically Possible Tomorrow?
If sellers show up, here’s what a big bearish day might look like:
1️⃣ First Move:
• Rejection at 3,357–3,392 resistance.
• Pullback toward ~3,324 (mid VWAP).
2️⃣ Continuation:
• Drop down to ~3,257 (VWAP lower band).
3️⃣ Extreme Scenario:
• Retest of 3,200–3,150 zone.
But a flush all the way to 3,000?
👉 Highly unlikely unless there’s a major global shock.
⸻
💡 Trading Tip: Stay Tactical
If you want to position short:
✅ Wait for rejection at 3,357–3,392.
✅ Short targeting 3,324 first.
✅ Scale profits there.
✅ Only hold runners for 3,200–3,150 if momentum accelerates.
⸻
🔑 Key Takeaway
3,000 is a structural target—this means it’s a price objective that might play out over weeks, not hours.
Trying to catch that in one day is chasing a black swan.
Stay patient. Trade levels, not headlines.
⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This post is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before trading.
⸻
✅ If you found this helpful, share it with someone who panics every time a red candle shows up.
Gold sell ideaGold is rebounding after sweeping Friday's low liquidity, driven by a weak dollar. Despite the upside move, the 1-hour structure remains bearish. We anticipate a potential false breakout above $3,307.00 followed by a sell-off back to the $3,271.00 lows. If the bulls can regain control, gold may bounce back and resume its growth. However, failure to do so could lead to a decline towards the $3,245 support level
7.1 London gold rebounds and rises, gold market trend analysis aGold rose to 3295 in the Asian session on Monday and was blocked. It fell in the European session as we expected, but the decline was not strong. After the lowest price of 3274.57, it rose again in the US session and stood firmly at the 3300 mark. The monthly line closed with a cross Yang K. The gold price continued to rise at the opening today. After the market on Monday, the 3247 below can be used as a reference for the bottom rebound position. Now the short-term trend belongs to the bulls, so we will continue this trend today and look at the upward trend first, wait for the European session to see the strength of the decline and then formulate the idea of the US session.
From the market point of view, after the gold price stood above the 3300 mark again, it is used as a short-term support level reference for the bulls. The Asian session can rely on this position to arrange long orders to see the continuation of the upward trend; the initial pressure on the upper side focuses on the 3328 position, followed by 3345. Now that the idea is established, the idea for intraday operations is: wait for the gold price to pull back to around 3308 in the Asian session and then go long and bullish, protect the 3300 mark, and target around 3328; if there is pressure at 3328 in the European session, you can arrange short positions with a downward trend, wait for the US session, and then decide whether to go long again based on the pullback position and target around 3345.
Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen # Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
🔸 **Instrument:** Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD)
🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min
🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure
🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup
---
## 🔍 Market Context:
- **Structure:** Bullish on LTF (MSU)
- **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean & Efficient Delivery
- **Recent Activity:** Reverse H&S completed + double BOS + CHoCH confirmed
- **Price Level:** Trading near key Supply zone (3300–3315)
- **Monthly Context:** July begins with bullish momentum & previous session showed aggressive buy-side pressure
---
## 🧠 Technical Breakdown:
1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone)
2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed
3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315**
4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet
5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB
---
## 📌 Trade Plan:
| Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) |
|----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------|
| Long | Above 3,303–3,310 (structure hold) | Below 3,294 | TP1: 3,325 / TP2: 3,340 / TP3: 3,348 |
| Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 |
---
## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
- 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview)
- 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk
- 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses
---
## ✅ Summary:
> **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum.
> The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**.
> Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting.
**Structure:** 🟢 Bullish
**Trend:** 📈 MSU
**Efficiency:** ✅ Clean
**Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL
---
📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
XAUUSD on Falling swingH4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding falling pattern and Drop on Fundamentals .
ISM news is comming just after 5 mins.
What's possible scanarios we have?
im expecting that gold needs one more drop correction at atleast 3315-3305 area market will join the 3290 then 3280 milestone.
Exceptional case:
If the H4 candle remains above 3345 then keep your eyes at 3365 then 3380.
#XAUUSD