Gold May See Minor Pullback After Testing $3400📊 Market Development:
Gold surged to approach the $3,400 mark after U.S. Unemployment Claims came in higher than expected. The weak labor data increased speculation of an earlier rate cut by the Fed, pressuring the USD and bond yields, which in turn supported gold prices.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,400
• Nearest Support: $3,365
• EMA: Price remains above EMA 09 → bullish bias intact
• Candle/Volume/Momentum: Long upper wick on H1 suggests profit-taking near $3,400; declining volume may signal weakening momentum.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term pullback if it fails to break above $3,400 and the USD strengthens in the New York session.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,395–$3,400
🎯 TP: $3,375
❌ SL: $3,406
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,365–$3,370
🎯 TP: $3,390
❌ SL: $3,355
GOLDCFD trade ideas
POSSIBLE SHORT AND LONG POSITION Hi traders.
🥲 no one is listening but I’m still going to post 🥺🥺
Anyway, a new session trade. This is what’s happened:
I’ve opened a short position around the short mark, if you look closer 👀 this isn’t exactly on the high of the tick or the high of the wick in the highest of the London session. This is because I entered in a bit late.
But late enough I was.
I saw a small dip then the spike which nearly caused me to hit my stop loss.
The stop loss hasn’t hit yet, and it’s now on a rally going down, hopefully it doesn’t bounce back up.
The 3 drawings that I have set out the session high and low, and future position and one more drawing marking out the bullish movement.
Short position has been entered and not is going down to TP, I have an alert on the TP and the SL and I also have alerts on new highs and lows
Have fun traders
GOLD hits $3,435 target, Middle East tensions rise againOANDA:XAUUSD rose to a one-week high as weak U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, while conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD recently hit a fresh one-week high, extending its rally. Spot gold had risen to $3,435 as of press time, after hitting its highest level since June 5.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation “will continue until this threat is eliminated.” Iranian state TV reported that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hussein Salami, had been killed. Iran vowed a “harsh counterattack” against Israel and the United States, while other countries said they were not involved in the operation. Gold is trading near an all-time high of $3,500.10, just shy of $60.
Netanyahu said the operation “will last for days to eliminate this threat.” Israel believes the strike killed at least several Iranian nuclear scientists and senior generals, according to a military official. Iranian state TV said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hussein Salami may have been among the dead.
Israel's attack on Iran comes after Netanyahu repeatedly warned of attacking the OPEC oil producer to cripple its nuclear program. US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to hold a new round of talks on Tehran's nuclear program in Oman on Sunday, but Trump said this week he was less confident a deal could be reached.
OANDA:XAUUSD extended its recent two-day gains as weak U.S. inflation and jobs data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. A report on Thursday showed U.S. producer price inflation remained subdued in May, while another showed jobless claims continued to rise, hitting their highest level since late 2021.
OANDA:XAUUSD has gained 30% this year as investors increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and geopolitical tensions, including in Ukraine. Strong demand from central banks and sovereigns has also supported gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continues to reach the target of $3,435 after reaching the previous upside target at the base of $3,400.
Currently, the base of $3,400 becomes the nearest support, while other than the resistance of $3,435, there is no resistance ahead to prevent gold from heading towards the all-time high of $3,500.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping upward, still far from the overbought zone, indicating that there is still plenty of room for further upside ahead.
There are no factors that could cause gold to decline during the day, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3480 - 3478⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3384
→Take Profit 1 3472
↨
→Take Profit 2 3466
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3373 - 3375⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3369
→Take Profit 1 3381
↨
→Take Profit 2 3387
Middle East Tensions Drive Gold Back to $3,400Today, after pulling back to around $3,340, gold broke through $3,380 and has since fluctuated in a narrow range of $3,370-$3,400. With the Middle East tensions escalating, Iran has stated that even if its current nuclear facilities are damaged, it will continue to build new sites and is determined to rebuild them to safeguard its security. Israel will by no means tolerate this, dimming the hopes of the Trump administration's peace initiative.
Short positions are now infeasible. Although rallies to new highs are often followed by pullbacks, the risk of wiping out accounts entirely makes shorting too dangerous.
We recommend gradually building long positions near $3,350-$3,370, setting stop-loss orders 10-15 dollars below the entry price to avoid heavy losses from major shifts in the situation.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
The US CPI data is coming soon
💡Message Strategy
During the New York trading session on Tuesday (June 10), spot gold staged a "high diving" trend, with the price of gold falling sharply by about US$30 from its high.
Regarding the Sino-US trade negotiations, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Tuesday that the negotiations were progressing "very, very smoothly." He said he hoped the negotiations could be concluded on Tuesday night, but if necessary, they would continue on Wednesday.
📊Technical aspects
Yesterday's gold trend was still in line with my bearish thinking. In the short term, due to today's CPI data, we remained cautious yesterday and the trend was volatile and bearish. Today's heavy CPI data will break the volatility.
Today's idea is still to follow the trend and be bearish. Pay attention to the support near 3340. If it can still rise to 3350-60 during the day, it will be a good opportunity to open a short position.
If the data performance meets our bearish expectations, gold is likely to generate a profit margin of $100. Always pay attention to trading signals.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3340-3355,3355-3365
XAU/USD – Bullish Outlook (15M Chart)📈 XAU/USD – Bullish Outlook (15M Chart)
Gold is reclaiming intraday demand zones and showing signs of a short-term bullish continuation. Structure suggests possible movement toward the next supply area:
🔹 Key Breakout Zone: 3313.43–3316.85
🔹 Next Target: 3221–3224
🔹 Final Target: 3339.3–3345.6
📍 Price reacted cleanly from the 3314–3320 demand zone, forming higher highs. If the recent breakout zone holds, bullish momentum may take price into the upper supply.
⚠️ Look for bullish confirmation on lower timeframe retests before entering longs.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #FXFOREVER #SmartMoney #PriceAction #MarketStructure #BullishBias
XAUUSD LONG ITGreetings traders this is my analysis on XAUUSD and it is Long
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
Head & Shoulders Formation:
A clear Head and Shoulders pattern is visible, with:
Left Shoulder forming around April 14–15,
Head peaking on April 18–19,
Right Shoulder forming April 23–24.
This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, which played out as expected.
Elliot Wave Structure:
An Elliot Wave impulse followed by a corrective wave appeared right after the head formation.
The market then entered a downtrend, completing a retracement toward the support zone (3172).
Previous Idea Target Hit:
The price reached the previous target area, confirming the validity of earlier projections (noted in blue rectangle on May 7).
Current Market Structure:
After bouncing from support, the market entered a consolidation phase (early June), signaling indecision.
A short-term dip toward the minor support at 3290 is possible before a projected bullish move.
🔮 Forecast:
Expect a short-term pullback to the support zone around 3290.
If buyers step in at that level, we could see a bullish continuation toward the resistance/target level of 3441.
Confirmation will depend on how price reacts at the minor support and if a breakout from consolidation occurs.
🛠️ Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
🔴 3172 (Major)
🔵 3290 (Minor – Potential bounce zone)
Resistance/Target:
🟢 3441 (Target from consolidation breakout)
✅ Trade Plan (Not Financial Advice):
Bullish Scenario: Look for bullish reversal candlesticks at 3290 for long entries.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 3290 invalidates the idea — watch for potential retest of 3172.
Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
XAUUSD İmpulsive wave continuationWe have started our next impulsive wave. Elliot Wave is not some magic tells us future but eliminating all the possibilities while market pricing fundementals and clear patterns. so when we have left with only very limitided posibilities we know how to position ourselves.
here is one of thoose handful of options left in the hand. short term targets : 3469-3531
Will gold surge and then fall after CPI?Judging from the 4-hour gold chart, gold maintains an overall volatile upward trend, so I think the data may be an opportunity to arrange short orders at highs. Although the price of gold has risen rapidly after the data was released, it should be noted that it has shown obvious signs of pressure in the volatile trading concentration area of 3380-3390. Since the current bullish momentum is not enough to effectively break through this key resistance level, the decline of gold prices after rising is in line with technical logic. Specific operation suggestions are to follow the trend of low-long and high-short trading strategies. From the current situation, I suggest that gold rebounds to around 3380-3385 to arrange short orders.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3380-3385, with a stop loss at 3393 and a target of 3360-3340;
Gold Hits Resistance on UptickThe gold market continues to exhibit a range-bound oscillation rhythm. During the Asian session, prices quickly dipped from the 3,302 level before rebounding to around 3,335 in the short term. This "volatile seesaw" movement is a typical feature of a ranging market—characterized by discontinuous fluctuations, repeated ups and downs, and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears within a limited range.
The current oscillation is not a signal of trend weakening, but rather a consolidation period for bulls following the sharp rally in March and April: the previous rapid gains required time for the market to digest profit-taking and adjust its pace, building momentum for the next upward push. From a macro perspective, the 3,500 level is by no means the endpoint of this rally. After completing this consolidation phase, gold is highly likely to witness a more definitive upward move.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
buy@3310-3315
TP:3335-3345
Is there more than $100 room for gold to fall?
💡Message Strategy
Gold is under the dual pressure of risk aversion cooling and dollar strengthening in the short term. As the high-level negotiations between Asian powers and the United States entered the second day in London, the market was optimistic about reaching an agreement in the field of export controls, which improved the overall risk sentiment and safe-haven assets such as gold were under obvious selling pressure.
At the same time, the US non-farm payrolls report last week far exceeded expectations, further suppressing expectations of a rapid rate cut this year, pushing up the US dollar index, and putting pressure on gold at the $3,340 mark.
Recently, the gold price has failed to effectively break through the 200-hour moving average, reflecting the lack of bullish momentum, and the short-term trend is likely to be consolidated or further adjusted.
📊Technical aspects
From a technical perspective, gold prices fell again after failing to test the 200-hour moving average and are currently fluctuating below $3,340. Hourly chart indicators (MACD, RSI) show that bearish momentum continues to increase. If the price falls below the previous trading day's low of $3,290, it will further open up space to fall back to the May 29 low of $3,245 or even $3,200.
The first support is in the 3340 area. After breaking through, it may accelerate the decline to test 3290; if this position is lost, it may re-test the 3200 integer mark.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3340-3355,3355-3365
GOLD Relationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields
1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY)
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY).
When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down.
Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts.
2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive.
However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.
Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields.
3. Gold and Bond Prices
Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall.
Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge.
Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation .
4. Macro and Market Drivers
Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields.
Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support.
Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term.
Conclusion
Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields.
#gold #dollar
Continue the bearish trend.After the opening of gold, bullish and bearish forces fiercely contended, with prices falling first and then rising. After finding support at the key level of 3293, they rose again. During the Asian session, prices broke through the early session high of 3320 and surged toward 3330. However, the rally significantly slowed down after reaching this area, exposing signs of fatigue in bullish momentum. Technically, a top divergence signal has emerged. It is recommended to use the 3333-3343 range as resistance and lay out short positions on rallies. The first support below to monitor is 3305. If this level is breached, it may retest the early session low of 3293 from which the rally originated. During the US session, special attention should be paid to the risk of a breach of 3293, which could trigger a new downward trend.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@3330-3340
TP:3305-3310
Toward $3,500? Gold Faces Key Policy DecisionsGold is currently trading around $3,438 and continues to show positive momentum. After a week focused on inflation data, the gold market is now shifting its attention to interest rate decisions and policy guidance from major central banks.
The week begins with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of economic activity in the New York region. Following that, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision, and investors are closely watching to see whether the BoJ will continue normalizing its interest rates.
Next comes U.S. retail sales data for May — a crucial gauge of consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Any signs of weakness in consumer activity could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, the main focus remains the upcoming Fed meeting. While markets widely expect rates to be held steady, investors are awaiting clear signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the path and timing of potential rate cuts ahead.
According to Kitco’s weekly gold survey, professional analysts remain optimistic about gold’s outlook, while retail investors are showing more caution.
With central bank decisions approaching and geopolitical tensions lingering, investors need to stay alert. Risks such as rising social unrest in the U.S., escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and ongoing de-dollarization trends are all fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Given expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, gold maintains its defensive appeal. In my view, the precious metal may soon retest its highs near $3,500, as its role as a global safe haven becomes even more pronounced amid mounting uncertainty.
GOLD
GOLD complete sell on lock zone
check previous post
Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
GOLD H1 Intraday Chart Update For 12 June 2025Hello Traders
First of all we have US CPI High Impact event due today
now market is try to testing 3400 Psychological level once it will pass 3380-86 strong resistance zone and once market will break 3400 it will move towards 3423
3350 Psychological level remains in focus for a while due to retesting RBS zone
overall 334050 zone remain solid Buying Zone for now
Also keep an eyes on US CHINA Tariff news
Middle east tensions are remains watchable for now
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
The short-term tug-of-war for gold is starting
Gold prices continued their decline last Friday and stabilized and rebounded. Yesterday, gold prices fell back to the 3,300 mark, then slowly rose to the 3,338 mark, and fell back after encountering resistance, which is in line with the technical consolidation rhythm.
- China-US trade negotiations: The US has released signals that it is willing to relax export restrictions, and the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations, which may affect risk sentiment.
- US May CPI data: Inflation changes will provide key guidance for the Fed's policies.
- The current trend is weak, but the downside is limited. Buy on dips and avoid large-scale shorting.
- Today, it is recommended to wait and see, and wait for the negotiation results to become clear before entering the market to reduce volatility risks.
🔥Sell gold area: 3330-3348 SL 3352
TP1: $3320
TP2: $3310
🔥Buy gold area: $3295-$3305 SL $3290
TP1: $3320
TP2: $3330
XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**## 🟣 **XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**
### 🔹 **Entry Zone:** 3320–3323
Price is entering a short-term **supply zone** or resistance band — potentially a previous H1/H4 reaction point.
---
### ✅ **Reasons for the Sell:**
1. **Resistance Retest (H1/H4)**
* 3320–3323 acted as support-turned-resistance earlier.
* Price bounced off this area previously → now offering a clean retest zone.
2. **Wick Rejection / Exhaustion Signs**
* On lower timeframes (M15–M30), price shows wicks and slowing bullish candles near 3320, suggesting weakness.
3. **Bearish Divergence Potential**
* Possible divergence on RSI or MACD if price spikes above 3320 while momentum slows.
4. **Short-Term Overbought Conditions**
* Following a rally into 3323, price may correct downward to clear liquidity below.
---
### 🎯 **Target Zones (TPs):**
| TP | Level | Logic |
| ------- | ----- | --------------------------------------------- |
| **TP1** | 3317 | Minor intraday low / structure break zone |
| **TP2** | 3312 | Pre-breakout base from earlier H1 candles |
| **TP3** | 3305 | Key demand zone — possible reaction area |
| **TP4** | 3299 | Stronger support, possible daily bounce level |
---
### ❌ **STOP LOSS: 3328**
This is a solid SL zone:
* Just above the local highs and outside most false breakouts
* Keeps your R\:R clean (1:2 to 1:4 range depending on TP)
---
### 📊 **Summary:**
| Element | Value |
| -------------- | ----------- |
| Direction | **Sell** 📉 |
| Entry Zone | 3320–3323 |
| Stop Loss | 3328 |
| TP1 | 3317 |
| TP2 | 3312 |
| TP3 | 3305 |
| TP4 | 3299 |
| R\:R Potential | Up to 1:4 |
---