Go long on dips and short on rallies📰 News information:
1. Gold market liquidity at the end of the month
2. Impact of geopolitical situation
📈 Technical Analysis:
Last week we predicted that gold would rebound. Today, after gold rebounded as expected, we gave a short trading strategy. Gold fell precisely at the point we gave, 3295, and successfully hit our TP3280-3270. The result confirmed the correctness of our trading strategy. Next, we will focus on the long trading opportunities below 3270-3260.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3270-3260
TP 3290-3300
SELL 3295-3300-3310
TP 3280-3270
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
GOLDCFD trade ideas
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great day on the markets once again. This is an update on our 4H chart idea from Sunday, also playing out perfectly.
We started with our bullish target hit at 3375 with no cross and lock confirming the rejection into completing our bearish target at 3306. We will now need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3375 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3236
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2995
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Again, just like yesterday, we completed the long trade into the red box, RIPPED then played red box hockey before swooping the low and coming back up. What madness on the markets with continuous whipsawing which is not allowing traders to hold positions without huge stop losses.
For now, we have support at the 3325-8 level which if held should give us a move upside towards the red box. What we want to see here is do we get a lower high or not?
MA's still drawn together and more choppy price action expected in the sessions to come.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a breakdown of your XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) Buy trade setup:
---
🟢 Trade Type: Buy (Long)
Entry Price: 3321
---
🎯 Take Profit Levels:
1. TP1: 3330 (9 pips gain)
2. TP2: 3340 (19 pips gain)
3. TP3: 3350 (29 pips gain)
---
🔴 Stop Loss:
SL: 3305 (16 pips risk)
---
📊 Risk-Reward Ratios:
TP1: ~1:0.56
TP2: ~1:1.19
TP3: ~1:1.81
---
✅ Analysis:
The setup shows a moderate risk with potential for compounding gains.
Ensure there's enough momentum or support confirmation at or around 3321.
Your stop loss is fairly tight (16 pips) — consider volatility during news hours (like NFP or Fed announcements).
---
Would you like a chart analysis, help with position sizing, or automating this setup (e.g., for MetaTrader/TradingView)?
Gold Breakout Done New Short Entry Valid To Get 200 Pips !Here is my opinion on gold at he moment , in 15 mins T.F wr have a fake breakout but 3343.00 forced the price to go down which is a great res for this pair and we have avery good bearish price action and good closure below my res level 3341.00 so it`s my num 1 place to enter a sell trade if the price go back to retest it , and if not , 3383.00 will be my best place to sell it .
GOLD → Within range. Retest resistance at 3347FX:XAUUSD continues to correct after a false breakdown of support at 3300. Due to uncertainty, the price may remain in the range of 3300-3340 for some time.
Gold is fluctuating amid a weak dollar and uncertainty over Fed rates. Gold is struggling to hold on after rebounding from weekly lows, despite the US dollar falling to multi-year lows. Pressure on the dollar has intensified due to Trump's criticism of the Fed and rumors of a possible replacement for Powell. However, gold is limited in its growth due to a pause in geopolitical tensions and hawkish signals from the Fed chair. Investors are awaiting key macro data from the US (e 12:30 GMT Durable goods orders, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims) and especially the PCE inflation report on Friday.
Technically, the focus is on key areas of interest: 3300, 3306, 3340, 3347. Until strong news emerges, an intraday trading strategy should be considered.
Resistance levels: 3347, 3357
Support levels: 3320, 3307, 3300
Technically, a false breakout of resistance at 3347 and a retest of the local liquidity zone at 3320-3307 are possible before growth continues for the reasons mentioned above. Targets could be 3347, 3364, 3372, and 3396.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Weekly Recap – Week 27 (30 Jun – 04 Jul)🟡 XAUUSD | MJTrading
Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) staged a significant recovery this week after retesting a critical support zone. Price action reflected strong buying interest at lower levels, followed by consolidation near mid-range resistance.
🔹 Key Levels:
Strong Support Zone: 3,246 – 3,250
Weekly Low: 3,246.35 (30 June)
Weekly High: 3,365.77 (3 July)
Closing Price: ~3,343
🔹 Price Action Summary:
✅ Early Week Retest & Reversal
After the prior week’s decline, gold opened the week near the major support area around 3,246. This zone acted as a strong demand pocket, triggering a swift rejection and initiating a bullish reversal.
✅ Sustained Rally to Resistance
Price climbed steadily, riding the 15-period EMA to reach the weekly high of 3,365.77 on 3 July. This move represented a nearly 4% recovery off the lows, fueled by renewed safe-haven flows and short covering.
✅ Midweek Consolidation
Following the rally, gold entered a sideways consolidation phase between 3,340 and 3,365. EMA flattening reflected a pause in momentum as traders assessed the next directional catalyst.
✅ Late-Week Pullback
Toward the end of the week, price tested the 3,310–3,320 area before modestly bouncing into the Friday close. Overall, the market maintained a cautiously bullish tone while holding above the prior support.
🔹 Technical Perspective:
🔸 Bias: Cautiously Bullish
Price defended the strong support and printed a higher low structure.
Sustained closes above 3,300 maintain the bullish outlook.
🔸 Near-Term Resistance:
3,365–3,390 remains the immediate supply zone to monitor for breakout attempts.
🔸 Key Support:
The 3,246–3,250 area continues to be the primary downside line in the sand.
🔹 Special Note – 4th July US Bank Holiday
Trading volumes were notably lighter on Thursday, 4th July, due to the US Independence Day holiday. This contributed to reduced liquidity and muted volatility, with many traders and institutions off desks. The thinner market conditions likely influenced the late-week pullback and consolidation, as participation was limited heading into the weekend.
🔹 Sentiment & Outlook
The decisive rebound from support suggests that buyers are defending value zones aggressively. However, failure to close the week above 3,365 leaves gold vulnerable to another retest of mid-range levels if fresh catalysts don’t emerge.
Traders should watch for:
A clean breakout above 3,365 to confirm continuation higher.
Any sustained weakness below 3,300 as a signal of fading bullish momentum.
🧭 Next Week’s Focus:
Monitoring whether the consolidation evolves into accumulation or distribution.
Watching for a breakout or deeper pullback
Reactions to upcoming economic data
EMA alignment: If the 15 EMA continues to track above the 60 EMA, it supports a bullish bias.
Chart Notes:
The main chart highlights this week’s action, while the inset provides a fortnight overview of the broader decline and recovery for context.
Thank you for your time and your support...
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GOLD → Declining interest. Retest of supportFX:XAUUSD experienced significant volatility toward the end of the US trading session. This was due to developments in the Middle East. The de-escalation of the situation is leading to a decline in interest in the metal.
The announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while falling oil prices have reduced its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in July. The focus is on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress and further developments in the Middle East.
Technically, the price confirms the local bearish structure. A continued assault on the 3340 support level could trigger a further decline.
Support levels: 3343-3340, 3320
Resistance levels: 3360, 3366
Focus on the trading range (consolidation) 3340 - 3400. De-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to a decline in interest in gold as a hedge asset, which may cause the price to break down of consolidation. If the retest of 3340 continues, the price will begin to contract before the level, in which case the chances of a breakdown and decline will only increase. The target will be the liquidity zone of 3320 - 3306
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold (XAUUSD) – July 1 Analysis📍 H4 Key LH Zone: 3348.500 – 3350.500
This is a major decision zone.
Current market structure:
🔸 M15 is in an uptrend with confirmed ChoCh + BoS
What to watch:
We’re approaching the H4 LH supply zone — now we observe how price behaves here.
🔹 If price breaks above this H4 LH zone:
→ HTF and LTF trends align to the upside
→ Potential continuation of the bullish move
🔹 If price respects and stays below this LH zone:
→ Then this recent up-move could be a pullback
→ We may see a new low forming — so be cautious
📍 M15 Zones for Long Setup (if confirmed):
• 3309.500 – 3312.500 (Order Block Zone)
• 3302.500 – 3304.600 (Demand Zone)
We will watch these levels closely.
If price respects these zones and gives M1 confirmation (ChoCh + BoS) — we’ll plan for long entries accordingly.
📖 Let structure guide your decisions. Let price speak first.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Author of The Chart Is The Mirror — a structure-first, mindset-grounded book for traders
Market Recap & Forecast – Egyptian EditionMarket Recap & Forecast – Egyptian Edition
Yalla ya shabab—before you run off to Sahel or your cousin’s mashwi, let’s break down the market moves. Bring your tea—we’re about to see how they played us like a baladi tabla.
🗓️ 3-Day Recap (June 30 – July 2)
✅ Monday (June 30)
Market woke up strong—“Ana mesh hayemny!” like Adel Emam in El Irhab Wel Kabab.
Closed above 3302—bulls were flexing harder than Mekky in El Kabeer Awy saying “Eh da? Eh da? Enta betgannen ya basha?”
Momentum nearly maxed out—like your cousin after 3 Red Bulls.
RSI ~54, climbing.
Volume big and bold.
Translation: Bulls controlled everything—“El gameya di beta3ty ana!”
✅ Tuesday (July 1)
Tried to smash 3360–3394—market replied with Adel Emam’s classic:
“E7na benedhak 3alek!”
Closed near 3330, confused like a tourist in Sayeda Zeinab.
Volume dropped—enthusiasm disappeared faster than konafa on the table.
Market Maker Move:
“Ta3ala ta3ala, khod fake breakout we yalla salaam!”
✅ Wednesday (July 2)
Price stuck in a boring tight range—like someone waiting for their turn at the Mogamaa.
RSI still climbing but exhausted—“Khalas ya basha, malhash ta3ma,” as Mekky would say.
EMAs clustering—“Mafeesh haga hte7sal.”
Volume low—everyone thinking about the holiday.
Conclusion: The market was basically on vacation already.
📊 What’s Coming July 3rd (Cairo Time)
Set your alarms if you’re not too busy watching El Kabeer Awy reruns:
2:15 PM Cairo: ADP Jobs—could send the market spinning.
4:00 PM Cairo: ISM Services PMI—maybe some drama.
4:30 PM Cairo: Oil Inventories—“keda ya basha, haga sadeema.”
Early close because Americans have fireworks and kebab to grill.
🔍 Levels to Keep an Eye On
Fib Retracements:
38%: 3355
50%: ~3320
61%: 3302–3310
Zones:
🟥 Sell Zone (Habibi, Calm Down): 3394–3433
🟨 Chop Zone (El Malaal): 3330–3360
🟩 Buy Zone (Inshallah Bounce): 3246–3302
Above 3394? “Eh da? Enta betla3 3aleena?”
🕵️ Market Maker Tactics
Step 1: “Yalla, ne3mel rally zay el aflam el mosalsalat.”
Step 2: Sell into your excitement.
Step 3: “Yalla salaam,” as Adel Emam would say.
Step 4: Leave you staring at your screen, thinking:
“Ana mesh fahim haga!”
⚡ Forecast for July 3rd
Liquidity? “Ra7et fein?”—basically gone.
Early spike to 3394? Maybe—but “ma tesdaa2sh!”
By the afternoon, expect the market to drift back to 3300 for a nap.
🎲 Chances:
70% sideways boredom.
30% quick stop hunt to ruin your mood before mashwi.
📈 Hypothetical Trade Setup (Just for Education—Khalas ya basha)
Sure—here’s a clean, actionable rewrite that keeps the exact meaning, instructions, and flow but is tighter, clearer, and direct:
🟡 ENTRY PLAN
Scenario 1 – Sell the Trap
Setup: Price spikes into 3394–3430
Entry: Sell Limit at 3390
Confirmation:
✅ 1-minute Delta turns negative
✅ RSI fails to hold above 62
✅ Footprint shows absorption
Stop Loss: 3435
Target 1: 3330
Target 2: 3310
Execution: Place limit order. No chasing.
Scenario 2 – Buy the Clean Break
Setup: Sustained buying above 3430
Entry: Buy Stop at 3432
Confirmation:
✅ 5-minute close over 3430
✅ Volume >250% of 5-minute average
✅ Delta +1000 or higher
Stop Loss: 3395
Target 1: 3465
Target 2: 3480
Execution: Stop order to catch breakout momentum.
Scenario 3 – Fade into Reversion
Setup: Price fails to hold above 3368 intraday Fib
Entry: Market Sell below 3365
Stop Loss: 3390
Target: 3331 (POC)
🛡 Risk Controls
Max risk per trade: 1–2% of total equity
If price stays between 3360–3390 on low volume, do nothing.
Why?
Resistance stubborn—like Adel Emam yelling “Ana la!”
Market makers cashing out before the holiday.
Pre-holiday rallies disappear faster than mekka7a in Ramadan.
❓ Q1: What should you do while waiting for 3390?
Answer:
Absolutely nothing.
You do not:
❌ Short below 3390 without confirmation
❌ Flip bias every 15 points
❌ Chase 1-minute candles just to feel busy
Why?
Because 3360–3390 is the trap zone. Market Makers churn liquidity here, run stops, and create noise to bait impatient traders.
✅ Instead, you watch:
Does price consolidate under 3390?
Is volume drying up?
Is delta divergence building?
Your role is simple:
Sit on your hands until price enters your control zone.
Trading is 90% waiting. The other 10% is precise execution.
❓ Q2: What if price never hits 3390?
Answer:
If the setup doesn’t trigger, you do nothing.
Example:
Price never reaches 3390
No volume spike
No delta confirmation
Result:
✅ No trade
✅ No regret
✅ No FOMO
You are not throwing darts in the dark. You are running a clear plan:
If your criteria are met, you act.
If they’re not, you stay flat.
Example No-Trade Scenario:
Price stalls between 3350–3380 all day
Volume stays low
No stop sweep or breakout
You wait and protect your capital.
🔥 Pro Tip
If you feel you must do something:
Tighten your watchlist
Set conditional orders
Check correlated markets (Silver, DXY, yields)
Watch VWAP and ATR for shifts
Update your bias at each session open (London, NY)
But never force a trade out of boredom.
Here’s the reality:
Most of your profit will come from 2–3 clear, high-quality trades a week—not from taking 50 random entries.
✅ Quick Cheat Sheet
Trend: Bullish but exhausted.
RSI: ~56 and losing steam.
Levels: 3355, 3368, 3394
Zones:
🟥 Sell: 3394–3433
🟩 Buy: 3246–3302
Liquidity: “Mafeesh!”
Market Makers: Already on holiday.
⚠️ Reminder:
This is for learning, not for throwing your salary in the market. As Adel Emam said:
“Elly yetgawwez emra2a te7tag el falas.”
(He who marries a woman needs money—same with trading. Don’t blow your budget.)
GOLD XAUUSD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for today showed a surprising decline of 33,000 jobs, well below the forecast of a 99,000 forecast and down from the previous month’s modest gain of 29,000 jobs.
Key Details:
This negative figure indicates that private businesses in the US shed 33,000 jobs in June, marking a contraction in private-sector employment—the weakest report since March 2023.
The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, which uses anonymized payroll data from about 26 million workers to estimate private-sector employment changes ahead of the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The decline reflects ongoing uncertainty among employers amid policy and economic challenges, including tariff impacts and consumer caution.
Market Implications:
The unexpected job losses may raise concerns about the health of the US labor market and the broader economy.
This data could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts or a more dovish stance, potentially weighing on the US dollar and boosting safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
However, the ADP report often diverges from the official NFP, so markets will closely watch the upcoming government jobs data for confirmation.
In summary:
June’s ADP report revealed a contraction of 33,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations, signaling caution in US labor market hiring and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook ahead of the official payrolls release.
#gold #xauusd
Bullish rise for the Gold?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 3,302.57
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 3,403.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A ranging day and honestly, very frustrating for traders due to the up and down which hasn't allowed us to really hold without ridiculous stop losses. We hit the target yesterday, we're still not retesting that low so those entries are still active, but we really need to see this break above the 3335 level to go higher.
For that reason, we will say if red box active continues to support the price we can look for this to go a little higher but that 3340-45 level is the one to watch. The daily has flipped for lower pricing so tomorrow a high may be put in before further declines.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Under Pressure As Dollar StrengthenGold remains under pressure after a false breakout at $3,350, as the dollar's sudden strength dominates the market. Despite Powell's slightly dovish tone, Tuesday's PMI and JOLTs job data favored the dollar, keeping the market in limbo. Technically, gold has established a new range between $3,350 and $3,300. A drop to the lower end of this range could spark short-term buying opportunities. With the ADP numbers on the horizon, the market awaits further cues.
XAUUSD 15min – Bearish Setup | Short Trade Plan Below 3328Price action on Gold (XAUUSD) is showing signs of exhaustion near the 3,328 resistance zone, where we anticipate potential bearish rejection. A short opportunity may unfold once confirmation occurs below the key structural level of 3316.
Sell Trade Setup:
🔹 Primary Entry (Sell Entry 1):
📍 Zone: Around 3,328.29
📌 Reaction expected near major supply & resistance zone.
🔹 Confirmation Entry (Sell Entry 2):
📍 Below 3,316
📌 Break below structure may trigger bearish momentum.
Targets:
🎯 TP 1: 3,296.97 (Initial reaction zone)
🎯 TP 2: 3,276.64 (Mid support/EMA cross zone)
🎯 TP 3: 3,259.88 (Key structural support)
🎯 Extended TP:
3,243.94 (Re-entry confirmation level)
3,225.53 (Prior base structure)
3,202.45 (Final target if strong momentum follows)
3,159.31 (Ultimate low if sellers dominate trend)
Re-Entry Plan:
🔄 If price retraces after TP 3, watch for rejection at 3,243.94 to re-enter short toward the next levels.
Confluence Factors:
✔ 45° TPC angle supports bearish path
✔ Structure break expected below 3316
✔ EMA resistance and trendline rejection from upper zone
✔ Volatility cluster observed near 3,328 – ideal for trap setup
Bias:
Bearish below 3,316 – Expecting a downward continuation if structure confirms breakdown.
Author:
📅 1 July 2025
📊 Chart: XAUUSD – 15min
🧠 Shared by: @THEPATELCRYPTO
XAU/USD Analysis – June 30, 2025✅ Primary Scenario (Bearish Bias):
Short-term move up expected:
Price is expected to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3,305 – 3,306.
This level aligns with a key resistance zone and also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, making it a strong area for a potential bearish reaction.
Downtrend continuation:
If price reacts from the resistance zone, we expect the downtrend to continue, targeting:
📍 3,256 – liquidity zone
📍 3,245 – additional liquidity below
📍 3,228 – unfilled FVG
Gold Remains Bullish, But Market Needs Correction Before New ATHGold continues to trend upward with consecutive higher highs and higher lows, but a deeper correction may be necessary before the next major bullish leg can begin with conviction.
Price action on gold remains firmly in a bullish structure. The market has consistently produced strong impulses followed by shallow pullbacks, signaling aggressive buyer interest. However, from a technical trading perspective, current levels may not offer ideal long entries without a corrective move first. A deeper pullback toward support would reset momentum and offer higher probability setups for trend continuation.
Key Technical Points:
- Support Zone at $3,177: Daily support with swing low and 0.618 Fibonacci confluence
- 50 MA + 51 EMA Support: Dynamic moving averages guiding the higher low structure
- Potential Liquidity Sweep: A dip below daily support could trap bears before continuation
Gold’s current uptrend is well-defined, with a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows. Each dip has been aggressively bought, and the market has continued climbing with little resistance. However, this type of trend often leads to overextension, and traders are beginning to look for a corrective pullback to create a more sustainable setup.
The $3,177 support level is the key zone to watch. Not only does this level represent a daily horizontal support, but just below it sits a key swing low and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent leg higher. This area could serve as a prime candidate for a liquidity sweep—where price briefly dips to trap breakout sellers before reversing back upward.
Adding to this, the 50-day moving average and the 51-day exponential moving average are both supporting the trend and aligning with the higher low formation. These moving averages have been providing dynamic support throughout this rally, acting as a technical guide for buyers.
While there is always the possibility that gold continues higher from current levels, a pullback toward the $3,177 area would provide a healthier setup. It would allow the market to reset, rebalance, and potentially attract sidelined buyers who missed the initial move. Such a correction would preserve the higher low structure while maintaining bullish integrity.
What to Expect in the Coming Price Action:
If gold holds above the $3,177 support zone, the bullish trend may resume without deeper retracement. However, a brief dip below that level to sweep liquidity could offer the best long opportunity. Until a corrective move confirms, traders should remain cautious of chasing highs without a valid structure reset. Long bias remains intact as long as the higher low structure holds.
XAUUSD📉 The Setup: Bullish Divergence on XAUUSD (15m/30m)
Buy only on Breakout
🔍 Observation:
On the 30-minute timeframe, price made a lower low while the RSI indicator printed a higher low — classic sign of bullish divergence 🔄.
💡 Translation: Bears are losing steam! Bulls may be preparing to charge in! 🐂⚡
📊 Trade Plan – Long Entry