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XAUUSD Breakdown: Daily Support Under Fire – Bearish MomentumGold (XAUUSD) is pressing deep into key daily support around $3,275 after a sharp drop from the $3,450s. The daily trendline that’s defined this bullish run since January is now being tested for the first time in months, signaling a possible structural shift. On the Daily chart, price has decisively broken below the mid-range of the recent consolidation box and is holding near trendline support. On the 4H and 1H, bearish impulsive waves have formed clear lower highs and lower lows, with the current move stalling at the support zone around $3,265–$3,275. The 23M chart shows tight consolidation just above this support area, suggesting a potential breakdown if sellers stay in control. 📌 If this level gives way, watch for price to move quickly toward the next major support near $3,150–$3,200. Bulls must reclaim $3,300+ and break above the descending trendline to flip the bias back to bullish. 🚨 Current Bias: Bearish below $3,300; watching for confirmation of breakdown or strong reversal signals.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by AutoMarkets
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance, and could drop to the 1st support, acting as a pullback support. Pivot: 3,339.40 1st Support: 3,297.74 1st Resistance: 3,389.16 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
2
It’s the right time to make a golden layout!Gold opened at 3328 today and started the downward mode. After the European session, it continued to fall and broke the new low. The negative opening data of the US session also continued the downward mode. So far, it has reached the lowest point of 3255 and rebounded, but the strength is not very strong. After all, the upper pressure is still very strong. In the short term, we pay attention to the previous low point of 3295-3300, and focus on the upper 3305-3311. Today, the short-term operation of gold is mainly short-selling on rebounds, and long-selling on callbacks is supplemented. From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, with focus on the important suppression at 3305-3311. The rebound will continue to be mainly short and look to fall back. The lower short-term support is around 3255-3245. Relying on this range as a whole, the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple participation remains unchanged. Gold operation strategy: 1. Short-selling in batches near the rebound of gold near 3295-3310, with a target of 3380-3370. 2. When gold falls back to around 3345-3455, go long in batches, with the target at 3370-3380.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
1
Bullish bounce off pullback support?XAU/USD is reacting off the support level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,298.57 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 3,258.87 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 3,393.70 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
Still bearish！If the short-term bull lifeline 3330 is lost, the trend will be bearish again. The first pressure point above is 3350-the secondary top 3345, and then the 3332-35 area. If the price bulls regain 3335 again, then the operation should be carried out in the range of 3350-3310. It is not recommended to enter the market at the halfway point because it is easy to be washed out. If the daily K line closes below 3340, then 3332-35 is the best position at present. At present, the price is bearish below 40, and it can rely on 3332-31 to continue to be bearish. The target is 3310 and 3924.
PYTH:XAUUSDShort
by J-Prof
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 30 June 4 July 2025Gold has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the H4 timeframe. While the pattern is not perfectly symmetrical, it is still valid and clearly recognizable. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming a potential shift in market structure to the downside. Analysis Insight: The 3340–3350 area, previously a support zone, is now acting as resistance following the neckline break. A pullback to this zone may present a high-probability short opportunity for swing traders, especially if price shows rejection or bearish structure in that zone. Trade Type: Swing Trade Setup – Sell on Retracement: Bias: Bearish on confirmation of retracement rejection Entry Zone: 3340 – 3350 Stop Loss: 3376 (above right shoulder/high) Take Profit: 3320/3300/3285/3260 Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2 Kindly follow, share, like, support and comment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by QuinnReed_Charts
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 30, 2025 🌀 Elliott Wave Structure On the H1 chart, we observe a double zigzag correction WXY (in red). Currently, Wave Y appears to be developing as a green abc structure. In this abc structure: + Wave a started with a leading diagonal (5-wave triangle). + Wave b followed as a typical abc correction (in black). + Wave c is currently unfolding as a clear 5-wave impulsive move, characterized by sharp and rapid price action. The key issue now is to determine whether: + The price has completed wave 5 (black), or + It has only completed wave 3 (black) within the green wave c. If the current movement is wave 3 (black), we should expect a wave 4 correction, followed by one more leg down to complete wave 5. In this scenario, wave 5 will be confirmed if the price breaks below 3255. There are two potential target zones for wave 5: + Zone 1: 3247 + Zone 2: 3224 If wave 5 has already completed, the upward move to 3283 could be wave 1 of a new bullish trend. The next pullback would be wave 2, with an expected target between 3266 – 3261. ⚡️ Momentum Analysis D1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold region, suggesting a high probability of a bullish trend in the upcoming week. This supports the view that wave c (green) of wave Y (red) is nearing completion. H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, indicating the current upward movement may continue. This adds to the uncertainty about whether wave 3 or wave 5 has ended. 🧭 Trading Plan 📍 BUY ZONE 1 Entry: 3264 – 3261 SL: 3254 TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315 📍 BUY ZONE 2 Entry: 3247 – 3244 SL: 3237 TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315 ⚠️ Important Note This trading plan assumes either wave 3 or wave 5 has completed. Therefore, if in the early Asian session, the price does not touch the 3264 – 3261 zone but instead rises above 3283 without closing above 3297, and then drops back below 3283, we should avoid buying at 3264 – 3261. Instead, we should wait for a potential entry at the 3247 – 3244 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Why the Best Strategies Don’t Last — A Quant TruthOver the years, I’ve built strong connections with traders on the institutional side of the market. One of the most interesting individuals I met was a former trader at Lehman Brothers. After the collapse, he transitioned into an independent quant. I flew to Boston to meet him, and the conversations we had were eye-opening, the kind of insights retail traders rarely get exposed to. We didn’t talk about indicators or candlestick patterns. We talked about how fast and aggressive algorithmic trading really is. He told me something that stuck: " People think hedge funds build one algorithm, run it for years, and collect returns. That’s rarely the case. Most algos are extremely reactive. If something stops working, we don’t fix it — we delete it and move on. That’s how the process works." This isn’t an exception — it’s standard practice. What stood out most in our talks was how adaptable these algorithms are. If market conditions shift — even slightly — the logic adapts immediately. These systems aren’t built on beliefs or opinions. They’re built to respond to liquidity, volatility, and opportunity — nothing more. This level of responsiveness is something most retail traders never factor into their approach, but it’s core to how modern markets operate. █ How Quant Funds Use Disposable Strategies — And What Retail Can Learn One of the most misunderstood realities in modern trading is how top quantitative funds like Two Sigma, Citadel, and Renaissance Technologies deploy, monitor, and replace their strategies. Unlike traditional investors who develop a strategy and stick with it for years, many quant funds take a performance-first, outcome-driven approach. They: Build hundreds of strategies, Deploy only the ones that currently work, and Retire or deactivate them the moment performance drops below their internal thresholds. This is a deliberate, statistical, and unemotional process — and it's something that most retail traders have never been taught to think about. █ What This Means Quantitative firms often run: 100s of models simultaneously, Each targeting a specific edge (e.g. trend-following, mean reversion, intraday order flow), With tight risk controls and performance monitoring. When a model: Falls below a minimum Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return), Starts underperforming vs benchmark, Experiences a breakdown in statistical significance… …it is immediately deprecated (removed from deployment). No ego. No "fixing it." Just replace, rebuild, and redeploy. █ It runs live… until it doesn’t. If slippage increases → they pull it. If volatility regime changes → they pull it. If too many competitors discover it → they pull it. If spreads tighten or liquidity dries → they pull it. Then? They throw it away, rebuild something new — or revive an old one that fits current conditions again. █ Why They Do It ⚪ Markets change constantly What worked last month might not work this week — due to regime shifts, volatility changes, or macro catalysts. These firms accept impermanence as part of their process. ⚪ They don’t seek universal truths They look for temporary edges and exploit them until the opportunity is gone. ⚪ Risk is tightly controlled Algorithms are judged by hard data: drawdown, volatility, Sharpe ratio. The moment a strategy fails to meet these metrics, it’s shut off — just like any risk engine would do. ⚪ They don’t fix broken models — they replace them Time spent “tweaking” is time lost. New strategies are always in the pipeline, ready to rotate in when older ones fade. █ Research & Real-World Validation "Modern quantitative funds must prioritize real-time adaptability and accept that any statistical edge has a short shelf life under competitive market pressures." Adaptive Trading Agents” (Li, 2023) Donald MacKenzie’s fieldwork on HFT firms found that algos are treated like disposable tools, not long-term investments. Studies on adaptive algorithmic trading (e.g., Li, 2023; Bertsimas & Lo, 1998) show that funds constantly evaluate, kill, and recycle strategies based on short-term profitability and regime changes. A former Two Sigma quant publicly shared that they regularly deploy hundreds of small-scale models, and once one fails risk thresholds or decays in Sharpe ratio, it’s immediately deprecated. Walk-forward optimization — a method used in quant strategy design — is literally built on the principle of testing a strategy in live markets and discarding it if its forward performance drops. █ Why Retail Rarely Hears This Retail traders are often taught to: “Stick with a system” “Backtest 10 years” “Master one setup” But in the real quant world: There is no perfect system. There are only edges that work until they don’t. And the moment market structure shifts — new volatility, different volume profile, regime change — the strategy is gone, no questions asked. █ What This Means for Retail Traders ⚪ Don’t idolize “one perfect system.” What worked in April might not work in June. Treat your strategies as temporary contracts, not lifelong beliefs. ⚪ Build modular logic. Create systems you can tweak or retire quickly. Test new regimes. Think in frameworks, not fixed ideas. ⚪ Learn from regime shifts. Volatility, spread, volume profile, macro tone — track these like a quant desk would. ⚪ Use metrics like: - Win streak breakdown - Market regime tracker - Edge decay time (how long your setups last) █ Final Thought The best traders — institutional or retail — understand that there’s no such thing as a permanent edge. What matters is: Having a repeatable process to evaluate strategy performance, Being willing to shut off or rotate out what’s no longer working, And staying adaptable, data-driven, and unemotional. If you start treating your strategies like tools — not identities — you’ll begin operating like a professional. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
32
Will this growth spurt be newsless?Hello friends.. As we said in the previous analysis, we are still waiting for another upward leg. (Because the trend is bullish in the long term) Now we are looking for buying deals in gold next week after the market opens. (Technically, it is in a good range for buying deals) The lower area that has been identified can be a good range for buying. You can keep the target for this deal at $3645 (which is good in terms of risk to reward). . I hope you have used this analysis well. You can follow our page to see more analyses.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mahdi_norozi
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG: Following on from the KOG report, we said there was a huge caveat to the idea, that being that we will tap into that red box resistance and then make the drop rather than just continuing upside. This move worked out well not only giving the RIP but also terminating at the red box and bias level which gave us the long trade upside to where we are now. For now we have resistance at the 3395 level which still needs to break upside, while support is the 3370-75 level. Ideally, what we want to see over the Asian session is a break above the 3400 level, then a dip into the 3380-75 level before resuming the path we have anticipated in the report. For that reason, we won't change anything in our plans for now. Please note, a break below 3370 is needed to change the structure. Key Levels: Red box defence 3375-80, needs to be broken Red box defence 3350, needs to be broken KOG’s bias of the week: Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3375✅, 3390✅, 3395✅ and above that 3410 Bearish on break of 3340 with targets below 3330, 3320, 3310, 3306 and below that 3298 RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3375 for 3378✅, 3390✅, 3395✅, 3406, 3410 and 3419 in extension of the move Break below 3365 for 3355✅, 3350✅, 3340, 3336, 3330 and 3323 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
Catching the Perfect Rebound on XAUUSD!Hi traders! , Currently analyzing GOLD (XAUUSD) on the 1H timeframe. Price has dropped aggressively but is now reacting strongly from a key support zone around 3,271.00, where buyers are stepping in. This area has previously shown significant bullish reactions. I'm now buying from 3,271.00, expecting a bullish correction towards my target. Take Profit: 3,377.00 Stop Loss: 3,165.00 RSI is in oversold, indicating potential exhaustion of sellers. Price may have created a fake breakout below the trendline, trapping liquidity before bouncing back. Currently managing the trade, watching how price develops around this key area. Disclaimer : This is not financial advice. This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FXOnTop
XAUUSD:Today's trading strategy On Tuesday, the news that Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel dampened the risk aversion sentiment. Subsequently, the news that expectations of interest rate cuts had slowed down led to a further decline in gold prices. During the trading session, it once fell below the 3,300 mark. After the impact of the news weakened, it eventually rebounded to around 3,323, approaching the position where we first entered the market yesterday. Currently, there is no logic in the market. From a technical perspective, The resistance level above is at 3340-45, and the support level below is at 3305-10. We can conduct transactions around this range Trading strategy: SELL@3340-45 TP:3310-04 BUY@3305-10 TP:3335-40 More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Boooob_
2
Gold in Support and 3rd touch of trendlineLooking at the daily timeframe, I am still seeing strong signs of a bullish confirmations. Firstly that daily support zone has been rejecting the bears' efforts since the beginning of this month and now we have a 3rd touch of the support trendline. As long as that daily support zone continues to hold, I remain bullish overall. Even if there still consolidation happening on much lower timeframes in the meantime. I will be ready to catch the bull run upon the right confirmations.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Moipone_Phakisi
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal? Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction! 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst. 📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios: Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase): If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold. The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend. Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x): Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement. The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png). 🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead! Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan: 1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support): Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume). SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation). TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce. 2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption): Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation). SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340). TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
Next week's market trend analysisShort-term technical analysis of gold next week: After gold was horizontally consolidated below 3400, it had two relatively large retracements. The short-term downward channel, the upper edge of the channel is currently around 3340, which is also the turning point of the short-term long and short cycles that we need to pay attention to later. Has the current big rhythm entered a weak position? Daily level analysis: After reaching 3500, gold is still in a trend of high-level consolidation, and there is a periodic switch between long and short positions, and there is no extremely strong or weak rhythm. In this consolidation process, there are two relatively large retracements: the first from 3500 to 3200 space 300 points, the second from 3435 to 3120 space 315 points. In other words, in the current daily level cycle, the maximum decline is around 300 US dollars. Not exceeding this maximum retracement value, to a certain extent, it is still in the rhythm of high-level correction. According to the range of this space retracement, the limit of the daily retracement is around 3150, with an error of about 20 points. However, the daily range is large, so it is too early to talk about this threshold. At present, the short-term pressure points of 0.618 and the top and bottom structures are all around 3300. Another point for everyone to pay attention to: in the market with a small cycle of negative decline, once there is a sideways trend. Don't take it as support! The price is consolidating horizontally, which only means that the current bulls are weak in pulling back and the change of weakness must be a strong pullback to break through the big negative. Similarly, the slow rise market is the same. The first support below in the short term is around 3250. The strong support is at the integer level of 3200. Once this position is reached, it will become a repeated test position like 3400.
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold