GOLD recovers from around $3,300 area, short-term targetsOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered slightly and is currently trading around $3,332/oz, supported by a decline in the US dollar and US bond yields. The market is closely watching the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is near a one-week low, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near its lowest in more than a month.
As the conflict between Israel and Iran ends, geopolitical risk levels have disappeared, safe-haven funds have flowed back and thus gold is under pressure.
From a more macro perspective, gold remains in an uptrend and real yields are expected to fall further amid continued Fed easing. In the short term, if the market reprices rate cut expectations to become hawkish, this could trigger a technical correction in gold.
Economic data in the coming months will be particularly important for the gold market. If inflation data remains weak or the labor market deteriorates further, Fed officials could cut rates sooner or more significantly than expected.
A ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have taken effect on Wednesday, a day after both countries signaled a temporary end to their conflicting air strikes.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting growing concerns among households about job prospects and another sign of a weakening labor market amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that higher tariffs could start to push up inflation this summer, a key period when the Fed considers whether to cut interest rates.
Traders of federal funds futures are currently pricing in a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, with the first cut likely to come in September.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered slightly after testing the important support area noted by readers in yesterday's edition, around the raw price point of $3,300. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21 moving average, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can also be considered as upside targets for the time being.
In terms of overall structure, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. On the other hand, RSI is also hovering around 50, indicating that the market sentiment is still hesitant and does not have enough momentum for a complete trend.
Intraday, gold still has a bullish technical outlook, but a sell-off that takes gold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bearish signal in the near term. Therefore, long positions should be opened near the $3,300 area, with protective levels behind the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
Notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: $3,320 – $3,300 – $3,292
Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3371
→Take Profit 1 3359
↨
→Take Profit 2 3353
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3297
→Take Profit 1 3309
↨
→Take Profit 2 3315
GOLDCFD trade ideas
6.27 Risk aversion dissipates and gold prices adjust! The range As the Middle East war came to an end, the risk aversion sentiment in the global financial market subsided, the risk aversion funds dissipated, and the three major bullish markets of gold, crude oil, and silver all fell downward; at the same time, the US dollar index broke a new low !
Fundamentals:
1: The Middle East war has been temporarily paused, and both sides have entered the adjustment phase; however, irreconcilable contradictions may become the starting point of the next war at any time; although it has ended for now, we must not slack off. Once the two sides are on the verge of a war again, risk aversion will sweep the world again; this is not impossible;
This Middle East war came suddenly and ended suddenly; it was like a child's play washing the global financial market; therefore, the possibility of a resumption of war cannot be ruled out in the future;
At present, in the overall market:
1: In the short cycle, the gold price fluctuates downward, so in the short term, the short-term decline is seen, and the fluctuation is downward;
2: In terms of trend, the range is temporarily contracted, the BOLL of the daily K is contracted, the speed slows down, and the overall range is back to the range of fluctuations; there is no obvious long and short trend, and it returns to the range of fluctuations;
Today's technical trend chart:
1: In 4 hours, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, which is a main empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily under pressure from the central axis track of the 4-hour BOLL, and the empty trend continues downward, and the form tends to continue to oscillate downward; therefore, it is recommended to choose the high-altitude approach for 4 hours;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to cross downward, which is a empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily a broken Yin and Yang pattern, with no obvious trend; BOLL forms a contraction, the range of 3417-3277, the range is mainly in an oscillating trend, and the strong and weak dividing point is near 3347;
Comprehensive: The daily K is mainly in an oscillating trend, so it is recommended to deal with it according to the oscillating trend, choose to buy low and sell high; the reference pressure position is near 3347, the support position is near 3295 and 3278; the second pressure position is 3390-3400 pressure position; continue to choose the oscillating approach, and play a oscillating treatment of buying low and selling high;
Will gold prices continue to decline?On Tuesday, spot gold once fell below the $3,310 level and finally closed down 1.67% at $3,322.82 per ounce, as the Israel-Iran ceasefire dented safe-haven sentiment and Fed Chair Powell stated that more time is needed before considering interest rate cuts. Spot silver closed down 0.46% at $35.90 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2960%, and the 2-year yield at 3.8310%. Powell indicated that current policy is in a favorable position to wait and see before considering rate adjustments, adding that "colleagues privately say I'm doing the right thing". The vast majority of officials believe rate cuts later this year would be appropriate, while noting it's "too early to declare the U.S. dollar is falling".
Technically, gold's daily chart formed a large bearish candle with a lower shadow, breaking below previous support levels amid consolidation. This suggests the bearish trend may persist.
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Trading Strategy:
sell@3330-3335
TP:3300-3295
XAUUSD 1H–Power of 3, Liquidity Grab, FVG Fill & Bullish TargetThis is a classic Smart Money Concept (ICT) setup XAUUSD 1H – Power of 3, Liquidity Grab, FVG Fill & Bullish Targeting OB + Major Pool.
Accumulation at the bottom
Liquidity grab below SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity)
Expecting bullish expansion toward:
FVG fills
Break of BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity)
Tap or break of OB (Order Block)
Final target: Major Liquidity Pool ~3380–3390
🧠
Trade Plan:
Entry: After SSL sweep + bullish confirmation (FVG or MSB)
TP1: FVG fill
TP2: BSL break
TP3: OB or final pool zone
SL: Below manipulation wick.
XAU/USD: Range Trading Awaiting BreakoutCore Logic:
1.Macro Drivers: Powell's dovish remarks continue to reverberate, with U.S. Treasury yields declining, the U.S. Dollar Index breaking below 97, and the debt ceiling extended to July 24—safe-haven demand props up gold prices.
2.Technical Outlook:
Currently trading in a $3,300–$3,350 range, with shrinking volume reflecting market caution.
Trend Projection:
- Likely to remain range-bound between $3,300–$3,350; a breakout will depend on progress in previously mentioned catalysts.
- If data misses expectations or geopolitical risks (e.g., Iran tensions) escalate, gold may rally to $3,360; otherwise, it could test $3,300 support.
Trading Strategies:
- Long positions: Enter lightly at $3,300–$3,310, stop-loss at $3,290, target $3,340.
- Short positions: Sell on rejection above $3,345, stop-loss at $3,360, target $3,320.
- Risk management: Cap single-trade exposure ≤3% to mitigate data-driven volatility.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
XAUUSD / Technical AnalysisThe overall trend for gold is bearish, in the coming week it seems that gold has the potential to return to the price range of 3310-3320 and continue its downward trend again.
Anyway, the target for gold after the correction will be the $3200 range.
I recommend that you do not forget risk management when entering any trade.
Thanks to @forex_onliner
Gold expectation 1HGold should retest this price support line (in green) in its route to rejoining the channel for its destination. It broke out of structure due to news that came out, but buyers are making it return to its original path. Some nice strong buys are expected, so please watch for confimations as we go. #BuyTheBull
GOLD continue sideway , SELL 3393⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices remain well-supported during the North American session following breaking news that Iran has launched retaliatory strikes on US military bases in Qatar. The escalation comes in response to Washington’s weekend assault on Iranian nuclear facilities. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dominate headlines, investors have largely sidelined US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,385, up 0.39%.
Macroeconomic indicators have taken a backseat as heightened conflict drives market sentiment. Citing Israeli media, Al Arabiya reported that Iran targeted US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq with missile strikes. In a further escalation, Tehran approved the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and launched additional missiles at Israeli targets—amplifying safe-haven demand for gold.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices reacted to a decrease in positive news about peace in the Middle East, continuing to accumulate.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3392- 3394 SL 3399
TP1: $3382
TP2: $3370
TP3: $3360
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3319-$3317 SL $3312
TP1: $3327
TP2: $3338
TP3: $3349
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence
🎓 Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence: How to Read Institutional Absorption and Trap Setups
⸻
1️⃣ What Is Delta?
Delta measures the net aggression between buyers and sellers:
• Market Buys: traders lifting the ask
• minus
• Market Sells: traders hitting the bid
✅ Positive Delta indicates stronger buying pressure.
✅ Negative Delta indicates stronger selling pressure.
Delta shows who is initiating trades, not just that trading is occurring.
⸻
2️⃣ What Is Volume?
Volume measures the total number of contracts traded, regardless of who initiated them.
Every matched buy and sell contributes equally to volume.
Volume reveals activity, but not who controls the move.
⸻
3️⃣ What Is Delta–Volume Divergence?
Delta–Volume Divergence occurs when:
✅ Volume is high (lots of trades happening),
✅ But Delta is near zero (neither side dominates).
This signals:
• Intense two-sided activity between buyers and sellers,
• Strong participation on both sides,
• Passive absorption—institutions quietly filling large orders without moving price significantly.
⸻
4️⃣ Chart Breakdown – Bar by Bar
Below is a clear example of this concept in practice, reviewing each daily bar from your footprint chart:
⸻
🔴 June 24
• Delta: -8,240 (strong net selling)
• Volume: 575,720 (very high)
• Interpretation:
• Heavy, aggressive selling.
• Clear trend-confirming action.
• No divergence.
⸻
🟢 June 25
• Delta: +4,650 (net buying)
• Volume: 343,990 (moderate)
• Interpretation:
• Counter-trend buying or short covering.
• Less volume and less conviction.
⸻
🟢 June 26
• Delta: +2,690 (mild net buying)
• Volume: 416,820 (higher)
• Interpretation:
• Rising volume but weaker delta.
• Early sign of balance developing.
• Possible absorption beginning.
⸻
🟨 June 27 (Critical Bar)
• Delta: +272 (near zero)
• Volume: 540,310 (very high)
• Interpretation:
• Huge volume churn.
• Neither buyers nor sellers in control.
• Likely institutional absorption of aggressive orders.
✅ This is a textbook example of Delta–Volume Divergence.
⸻
5️⃣ Why This Matters
Professional Insight:
• Sellers had been aggressive for several sessions.
• Suddenly, volume remained elevated, but delta flatlined.
• This suggests:
• Exhaustion of selling aggression, or
• Institutional accumulation and passive positioning.
This often sets the stage for:
• A trap reversal (short squeeze), or
• A continuation flush if sellers regroup and push lower.
⸻
6️⃣ Confirmation Scenarios
Scenario A: Bearish Continuation
• Watch for renewed strong negative delta (e.g., -5,000 or worse).
• Price remains below the last support (~3,250).
• Confirms absorption failed and sellers remain dominant.
Scenario B: Short Squeeze Reversal
• Price reclaims the VAL (~3,285–3,300).
• Delta flips strongly positive (+5,000 or more).
• Trapped shorts begin covering, driving price back toward supply.
⸻
7️⃣ Common Misinterpretation
⚠️ High volume alone does NOT mean momentum.
Key Point:
If delta is flat, high volume simply means churn, not directional energy.
This is why inexperienced traders often get caught:
• They see heavy volume and assume a breakout is underway.
• In reality, the market is absorbing liquidity to trap both sides.
⸻
8️⃣ Professional Tips for Trading Divergence
✅ Wait for confirmation before entering:
• Clear delta shifts, and
• Price reclaiming or rejecting key levels.
✅ Be aware of stop zones:
• Under recent lows if buyers fail,
• Above recent range if sellers get exhausted.
✅ Avoid trading during pure churn without clear follow-through.
⸻
9️⃣ Quick Recap
✅ Delta–Volume Divergence: High volume, flat delta, no clear directional control.
✅ Typically signals absorption and position buildup.
✅ Requires confirmation before committing to trades.
✅ Recognizing it helps you avoid traps and false breakouts.
⸻
🔟 Final Thought
Learning to read divergence is what separates professional traders from retail:
“Volume tells you how hard the market is working. Delta tells you who’s winning.”
Combine both to see the hidden game behind every price bar.
⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer: This lesson is for educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.
Is Gold Setting a Trap for Traders?Gold is currently retesting the FVG zone around 3,392 after breaking below a key trendline — a classic sell-trigger area if price gets rejected.
Bearish momentum is supported by:
U.S. jobless claims: 244K < 245K forecast → Stronger USD
Iran–Israel ceasefire → Reduced demand for safe-haven assets
If price fails to break above 3,392, the next downside target is the 3,299 support zone.
Trade idea: Watch for a rejection around 3,390–3,392 to consider short positions.
Bearish bias remains valid as long as price stays below 3,392.
#XAUUSD #GOLD 30Min 📉📈 #XAUUSD 30m Analysis – Dual Setup Scenario
We’re monitoring two potential trade setups depending on how price reacts at key levels:
🔴 Sell Setup:
Price is entering a Sell-Side Order Block Zone between 3350–3360, aligned with a Fair Value Gap (FVG). This premium zone is likely to act as strong resistance, with potential rejection targeting downside liquidity near 3310 — an ideal area for short positions.
🟢 Buy Setup:
If price sweeps below and taps into the Liquidity Zone / Demand Area around 3305–3311, we’ll watch for a bullish reversal from this discount zone. This area offers a favorable setup for long entries, aligning with institutional buying levels.
📌 Be sure to mark these key zones on your chart for enhanced clarity and execution.
💬 What’s your outlook on Gold? Share your thoughts below 👇
XAUUSD – Smart Money Flow & Weekly OutlookGold reacted precisely at the key OB zone near 3270. Following a clear Break of Structure (BOS) on the H4, Smart Money may be redistributing positions.
🔍 Main scenario:
Price is expected to retrace to the 3349–3360 OB zone, where strong sell-side reactions may occur.
If that fails, the next likely move is a drop toward the high-liquidity demand zone at 3215, where buyers could re-enter.
📰 Key macro drivers:
Final GDP and PCE data show slight economic cooling in the US, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain higher-for-longer rates.
Trump’s recent comments stir political uncertainty, increasing safe-haven demand for gold.
🎯 Strategy:
Look for confirmed short setups near 3349–3360.
Consider longs at 3215 if strong bullish reaction forms.
Gold XAUUSD Analysis 25.06.2025The Gold shows with a recent upward trend following a period of consolidation and a dip. Key observations:
The price previously fluctuated between a support level around 3,310-3,319 and a resistance near 3,354.
The current price is consolidating near the recent high, suggesting potential for further upward movement or a pullback.
Signal:
Buy signal is present in the range of 3,316-3,319, aligning with the support level, offering a good entry point for a potential upward move.
6.26 Gold intraday operation strategy, rebound 42-48 line shortFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper resistance is around 3342-48. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. The short-term support below is around 3314-3316 integers. The upper pressure is around 3342-48. The overall support relies on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. The short-term long-short watershed is 3370. It is difficult to say that it is strong before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short the gold rebound at 3345-48, stop loss at 3356, target 3317-3325, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss
A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that forms when price action contracts between two downward-sloping lines. Both highs and lows are getting lower, but the lower trendline declines more slowly. This shows that sellers are losing momentum.
There are two types of falling wedges:
🟢In an uptrend, it acts as a continuation pattern. The price pauses and consolidates before breaking out upward again.
🔴In a downtrend, it acts as a reversal pattern, often signaling a bottom before a trend change.
Both versions look similar on the chart — a narrowing wedge sloping down. The breakout usually happens to the upside. To trade it 👇
1️⃣Wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper resistance line.
2️⃣Look for strong volume on the breakout to confirm the move.
3️⃣You can enter on the breakout or wait for a retest of the trendline.
4️⃣Place your stop below the recent low.
5️⃣Set a target based on the height of the wedge.
Falling wedges work best in strong trends and become more reliable the longer they form ✍️
#FAQ
GOLD 4H: not all that glitters is bullish...The 4H chart shows a clean descending triangle breakdown. Price failed to reclaim the trendline and was rejected under both MA50 and MA200. The bounce into 3325–3340 was absorbed — classic liquidity sweep and fade. Volume confirms bearish control.
Technically, the breakdown below 3320 opens the way toward $3293 (1.0 Fibo), $3250 (1.272 extension), and final target at $3195 (1.618), where buyers might step in. RSI supports the continuation without signs of reversal. Structure broke — and the market is telling us where it's heading.
Tactical plan:
— Entry at market or on a retest of $3325–3335
— Targets: $3293 → $3250 → $3195
— Stop: above $3340 (above MA50 and broken trendline)
When gold looks shiny, smart traders look deeper. This breakout isn’t golden — it’s a trap for late bulls.
XAU/USD: Gold's Critical Decision Point! FOR JUNE 06, 2025 📊 CURRENT SNAPSHOT
---
🎯 THE SETUP: "Golden Triangle Breakout"
Gold is sitting at a CRITICAL JUNCTURE - trapped between major support and resistance levels, forming what I call the "Golden Pressure Cooker" pattern.
🔍 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
🔴 RESISTANCE ZONE (The Ceiling)
* LWH (Last Week High): \$3,403.55 - Ultimate target
* LWL (Last Week Low): \$3,297.94 - Immediate resistance
* 4H FVG: \$3,350 area - Major supply zone
🟡 CURRENT BATTLEFIELD
* Price Action: Consolidating in tight range
* PWL (Previous Week Low): \$3,245.28 - Key pivot
🔴 DANGER ZONE (The Floor)
* DIE ZONE: \$3,121.70 - Critical support
* Break below = Major bearish signal
---
📈 MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
What the Chart is Telling Us:
1. 📊 Consolidation Phase: Gold has been ranging for several sessions
2. ⚡ 4H FVG Above: Acting as a magnet for price
3. 🎯 Triple Test: Price respecting the PWL level multiple times
4. 📉 Volume Decline: Typical before major moves
---
🚀 TRADING SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1: "Golden Rocket" 🚀 (BULLISH)
IF price breaks above \$3,297.94 (LWL):
* Target 1: \$3,330- +1.2% gain
* Target 2: \$3,350(FVG) - +3.9% gain
* Stop Loss: \$3,280 - Risk: -0.5%
Risk/Reward: 1:1.8 ⭐⭐⭐
SCENARIO 2: "Golden Avalanche" 📉 (BEARISH)
IF price breaks below \$3,245.28 (PWL):
* Target 1: \$3,200 (Psychological level)
* Target 2: \$3,121.70 (Die Zone)
* Stop Loss: \$3,297.94 (LWL)
---
💡 SIMPLE TRADING PLAN
🎯 FOR BULLS (Buy Setup):
```
ENTRY: Break above $3,298 with volume
STOP: $3,285
TARGET 1: $3,330
TARGET 2: $3,360
🎯 FOR BEARS (Sell Setup):
```
ENTRY: Break below $3,245 with volume
STOP: $3,298 (LWL)
TARGET 1: $3,200
TARGET 2: $3,122 (Die Zone)
---
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
1. Position Size: Risk only 1-2% of account
2. Wait for Confirmation: Don't jump early
3. Volume is Key: Breakouts need volume
4. Time Limit: Close if no movement in 2 days
---
🔥 WHY THIS SETUP MATTERS
Gold is at a crossroads! The tight consolidation suggests big players are accumulating positions. When this range breaks, expect explosive movement in either direction.
Smart Money Clues:
* Multiple tests of PWL = Strong support
* 4H FVG above = Price magnet effect
* Low volume = Calm before the storm
---
📊 MARKET CONTEXT
* Dollar Weakness: Could fuel gold rally
* Economic Uncertainty: Safe haven demand
* Technical Setup: Clean breakout pattern
* Timeframe: Perfect for swing trades
---
🎯 MY VERDICT
Gold is COILED and ready to EXPLODE!
The setup favors the bullish scenario due to:
✅ Strong support holding at PWL
✅ 4H FVG acting as price magnet
✅ Multiple failed attempts to break lower
✅ Overall uptrend structure intact
But remember: Respect the levels and trade the breakout, not your bias!
---
🚨 ACTION ITEMS
1. Set Alerts: \$3,298 (bull trigger) & \$3,245 (bear trigger)
2. Watch Volume: Breakouts need confirmation
3. Be Patient: Wait for clean breaks
4. Have Both Plans: Ready for either direction
---
Trade Smart, Stay Safe! 🥇💰
The market rewards patience and punishes impatience.
XAUUSD Market Roadmap (June 30 – July 4, 2025)XAUUSD Market Roadmap (June 30 – July 4, 2025)
Currently, XAUUSD is showing a rejection at the 3261 demand zone, signaling a potential short-term pullback. As long as the price remains above the 3241 demand level, there is a possibility of testing the 3289 supply zone. However, if sellers re-enter from that area, the market may resume its decline toward the next demand target at 3225.
Key Levels:
Demand (current rejection zone): 3261
Demand (critical support): 3241
Supply (resistance target): 3289
Next downside target: 3225
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management before making any trading decisions.