GOLD (XAUUSD) Developing Bullish Structure - LRA Perspective.Right then, let's have a look at the Gold chart. A very interesting picture indeed.
Based on our LRA strategy's interpretation, the market conditions for XAU/USD have recently shifted from bearish to a developing bullish structure.
Here's a brief overview:
Prior Downtrend: First, we can see the strategy successfully identify a prior downtrend, capturing a profitable short trade.
The Current "Support LR": The market then found a bottom and entered a period of consolidation. Our strategy has identifies this area as a "Support Locked-in Range", which is signified by the prominent green text.
The Trapped Sellers: What this green text tells us is that the sellers who were trying to push the price further down within this range have failed. The price has now broken out to the upside of this range, meaning those sellers are now trapped in losing positions.
Active Long Position: As a result, our strategy has correctly entered an "Long" trade. It is siding with the buyers and betting that the trapped sellers will be forced to buy back their short positions, which would add further fuel to this upward move.
In essence, the market has absorbed the selling pressure and has now broken its immediate downward structure. The strategy is positioned for a potential continuation of this new upward momentum.
Cheers.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
$XAU GOLD Breakout After Israel's Attack On Iran TVC:XAU had been mostly languishing and consolidating for the last month between $3290 and $3360. This could signal weakness in the broader markets on Friday. Is this the Black Swan Event many have been predicting to throw renewed chaos and downward pressure into the market?
True Range Price ActionThis chart shows the tools needed to analyze price action using true range of moves. If you are master in multi-timeframe analysis, this method will give you precision. Setups have master, pattern, and trigger timeframe parts. The relation between timeframes of a setup are as follows: master timeframe is highest timeframe for setup, pattern timeframe is one lower fractal timeframe, and trigger timeframe is two lower fractal timeframe, both relative to the master timeframe. Fractal timeframes respectively are: M, W, D, H4, H1, M15, M5, M1.
Two main setups are trading based on return, and trading based on break. Trading based on return consists of two sub-setups: trading based on pivot setup for reverse pivot, and trading based on area nature setup for settlement pivot. Trading based on break setup or trend pivot setup, and trading based on area magnet setup. Each setup has a trigger line entry in its trigger timeframe as following: area nature setup trigger line, return to pivot trigger line, magnet trigger line, and pullback trigger line.
Gold rises to 3400 and becomes the next breakthrough pointGold continued to rise during the day, then fell sharply and entered a clear upward trend after a wave of wash-out. The expected target for the week was gradually realized - the 3370 line has been broken, and the next core target is the 3400 mark. From a technical perspective, the daily line closed with a large positive column on Wednesday and stood firmly on the Bollinger middle track. The moving average system is in an upward divergent state. Under the strong pattern, it is expected to further challenge the Bollinger upper track high point near 3400; the H4 cycle is due to the current round of Bollinger opening enlarged, or continue the unilateral upward rhythm.
Gold recommendation: light position long at the current price of 3360, and cover the position when it falls back to around 3350. Stop loss 3343 target 3390
GOLD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,339.09 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,331.49..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
This chart is a 15-minute candlestick chart for CFDs on Gold (USSure! Here's another idea for trading this Gold (XAU/USD) chart based on what we see — this time, a bearish scenario that challenges the current bullish setup. This provides a contrarian view or alternative strategy in case the bullish pattern fails.
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🟥 Alternative Idea: Bearish Rejection from Resistance
🔍 Rationale:
The price is currently testing the previous resistance zone around 3,433–3,435.
The upward movement might be a lower high in a downtrend.
There’s potential for a fakeout or bull trap, especially if volume does not support the breakout.
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🛠️ Setup: Short Trade
Entry: Around 3,433 – 3,435, if price shows rejection (like a bearish engulfing or pin bar)
Stop Loss: Above recent swing high ~3,445
Take Profit: Near 3,410 – 3,406 (previous demand area)
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⚖️ Risk-Reward:
Risk: ~10–12 points
Reward: ~25–30 points
✅ RR Ratio: ~2.5 to 1
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🧠 Confirmation to Look For:
Bearish candlestick reversal patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing)
Decreasing volume on the last push up
Divergence on RSI or MACD (if available)
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📉 Possible Outcome:
If gold fails to break above the current level and falls below 3,420 support, it could lead to a deeper correction — especially if USD strengthens or risk sentiment turns negative.
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Would you like a visual sketch of this bearish setup on the same chart, or want me to simulate it with indicators like RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci retracement?
High-level chasing risk warningObservation of the hourly gold K-line pattern shows that the current price is still in a fluctuating upward channel. Based on this technical feature, if subsequent data is favorable and pushes gold prices further up, it may form a trading opportunity to arrange short orders at a staged high level. It is important to note that although the gold price surged rapidly after the data was released, it has shown a significant first-line resistance effect in the historical trading intensive range of 3400-3410. Considering that the bullish momentum has not yet broken through the technical conditions of this key pressure zone at this stage, the technical correction of the price after the surge is in line with the logic of price behavior. At the specific operational level, it is recommended to adopt a trading strategy of low-long and high-short with the trend. In the short term, it is recommended to establish short orders when the gold price rebounds to the 3405-3410 area
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3405-3410, with a stop loss at 3418 and a target of 3380-3360;
Gold prices still maintain a wide range of fluctuations: 3300-33Gold prices still maintain a wide range of fluctuations: 3300-3360
Key points:
Resistance level: 3338 (yesterday's high), 3350 (psychological barrier), 3360-3362 (Fibonacci 61.8% strong resistance level)
Support level: 3315-3318 (Asian market retracement area), 3292 (yesterday's low), 3308 (stop loss reference)
Intraday operation strategy
1. High-altitude is the main (priority strategy)
Entry area:
Near 3340-3350 (close to yesterday's high of 3338, initial resistance level)
Above 3360 (opportunity to cover positions, strict stop loss)
3360-3362 (strong resistance area, ideal high-altitude position)
Stop loss: 3365
Target: 3330→3320→3315 (gradually stop profit)
2: Low-level long positions as auxiliary (participate cautiously)
Entry area:
3315-3318 (Asian session support range, light position try to go long)
Near 3292 (yesterday's low, steady long position)
Stop loss: 3308 (3315 long position) or 3285 (3292 long position)
Target: 3335→3348 (rebound high point exit in batches)
Logic and risk control points
The core of the volatile market:
Prices fluctuate in the range of 3292-3360, avoid chasing up and selling down, and wait for reversal operations near the boundary.
If the Asian and European sessions rebound first, it is safer to go long at the highs before and after the US session; if it falls to the support level first, it can go long in the short term to rebound.
Key signals:
Break through 3362 points: may break through the oscillating pattern and turn strong, need to wait and see whether to follow up with long positions.
Fall below 3290: beware of deep correction, long positions are temporarily suspended.
Gold hits 3400. What is Wall Street betting on?On Thursday (June 12), the U.S. Department of Labor released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and the initial jobless claims data for the week ending June 7. The data showed that the annual rate of PPI in May was 2.6%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%; the core PPI monthly rate only increased by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value was -0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 248,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 240,000, and the four-week average rose to 240,200, while the number of continued claims increased sharply by 54,000 to 1.956 million, setting a recent high. These data reflect that the U.S. labor market continues to cool, and inflationary pressures have eased but there are still uncertainties. The market's sensitivity to the Fed's expectations of rate cuts has further increased, coupled with the economic uncertainty caused by tariff remarks, investor sentiment has become cautious.
Immediate market reaction: Risk aversion heats up, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure
After the data was released, the financial market reacted quickly, and the dollar index fell 1.02% to 97.63, reflecting market concerns about slowing inflation and a weak labor market. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 6.7 basis points to 4.343%, a daily decline of 1.63%, showing investors' cautious attitude towards the economic outlook. Short-term interest rate futures prices rose, and traders further bet on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting rose from 76% before the data was released to nearly 80%.
In the stock market, S&P 500 futures fell 0.25%, continuing the previous day's 0.3% drop. Market sentiment was affected by weak labor market data and sudden events in the aviation industry. Boeing's stock price plummeted 7% due to the crash of Air India's 787 Dreamliner, dragging down the performance of the Dow Jones Index. The gold market showed safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke through $3,390/ounce to $3,390.13/ounce, up 1.05% on the day; the main contract of COMEX gold futures rose 1.97% to $3,410.40/ounce, reflecting the market's rising demand for safe-haven against economic uncertainty. In the foreign exchange market, the pound rose to 1.3600 against the US dollar, up 0.42% on the day.
Compared with market expectations before the data was released, the mild performance of the PPI data slightly eased inflation concerns, but the high level of initial jobless claims and the significant increase in the number of continued claims intensified the market's concern about the weak labor market. Before the data was released, some institutions expected the PPI monthly rate to reach 0.2%, while the number of initial claims could fall back to 240,000. The actual data was lower than inflation expectations but higher than employment expectations, and market sentiment shifted from cautious optimism to risk aversion, and the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields reflected this shift.
Data interpretation: Weak labor market and inflationary pressure coexist
From the data details, the annual PPI rate of 2.6% in May was in line with expectations, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating a mild recovery in inflationary pressure on the production side, but the core PPI monthly rate increased by only 0.1%, lower than expected, indicating that the inflation momentum after excluding food, energy and trade was limited. This is consistent with the recent trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting that inflation has stabilized overall, but has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target range. In terms of the labor market, the number of initial unemployment claims has continued to run high, with the four-week average rising to 240,200 and the number of continued claims increasing to 1.956 million, indicating that it is more difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. Although the median unemployment duration has dropped from 10.4 weeks in April to 9.5 weeks in May, there has been no large-scale layoffs in the labor market, but the growth momentum has slowed significantly.
Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that part of the reason for the cooling of the labor market is related to the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric, and companies tend to hoard labor rather than actively expand. In addition, the White House's recent tightening of immigration restrictions has further compressed the labor supply. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data indicate that job growth from April 2024 to May 2025 may be overestimated, and Barclays economist Jonathan Millar expects that the benchmark revision in 2025 may reduce job growth by 800,000 to 1.125 million, an average monthly decrease of 65,000 to 95,000. This forecast further reinforces market concerns about an economic slowdown.
Institutional and retail views also reflect similar sentiments. Before the data was released, retail investors expected that if the PPI increase was lower than expected and the initial claims data was higher than expected, the Fed would be under more pressure to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the PPI data was moderate and the initial claims data was high. The market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut were further heated up, and the trend of gold and US Treasury yields has already said it all. Some retail traders believe that both the initial claims data and PPI are weak, the US dollar index fell below 98, and they are bearish on the US dollar in the short term, and gold bulls have opportunities.
Compared with the optimistic expectations before the data was released, retail sentiment turned cautious, and some investors began to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of safe-haven assets.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts and changes in market sentiment
After the data was released, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy changed subtly. Before the data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 was only 23%, and the probability of a meeting on September 17 was 76%. After the release of PPI and initial claims data, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to nearly 80%, reflecting the market's comprehensive judgment on slowing inflation and a weak labor market. Traders have fully digested the possibility of two rate cuts this year, and the rise in short-term interest rate futures further confirms this expectation. However, tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies (such as the Republican tax cut plan) may put upward pressure on inflation, limiting the Fed's room for rate cuts.
From the perspective of market sentiment, before the data was released, investors' expectations for PPI and initial claims data were relatively divided. Some institutions expected that inflation might exceed expectations, while labor market data might improve. The mild performance of actual data dispelled concerns about overheating inflation, but the weakness of employment data exacerbated expectations of an economic slowdown.
Outlook for future trends
Looking ahead, market trends will remain volatile under the combined influence of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, tariff rhetoric and the global macro environment. In the short term, the mild performance of PPI data provides the Fed with greater policy flexibility, but the weakness of initial and renewal data indicates that the labor market may slow down further, and the probability of a rate cut in September will remain high. However, the upward risk of inflation caused by tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies may limit the extent of rate cuts. The market needs to pay close attention to the July non-farm payrolls data and June CPI data to further confirm the trend.
From a historical perspective, the S&P 500 index often shows a volatile pattern against the backdrop of mild inflation data and weak employment data. The current index is 2% lower than the historical high on February 19, and may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is increasing, and a breakthrough of $3,390/ounce may indicate further upside. The weakness of the US dollar index may continue, but we need to be wary of the support for the US dollar from safe-haven demand caused by tariff policies or geopolitical risks (such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine).
In the long run, continued weakness in the labor market may prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy in the second half of 2025, but the uncertainty of inflationary pressure will keep the policy path cautious. Investors should pay attention to the guidance of subsequent economic data, especially the revision of QCEW data, to judge the true situation of the job market.
High-level shock, pay attention to the upper suppression levelFrom the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3315-20. If it falls back to this position, we will continue to look at the rebound and upward continuation. The resistance above is around 3345-50. The overall gold price remains the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the channel, please pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. If gold falls back to 3315-20, buy more. If it falls back to 3295-3003, buy more. Stop loss 3285, target 3345-3350, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Gold Soars – Heading Towards 3,500 USD/ounce?Gold prices closed yesterday at 3,457.7 USD/ounce, up 0.12% from the previous day, fluctuating between 3,453.7 USD and 3,458.1 USD/ounce, marking the highest level in the past two months.
XAU/USD is currently maintaining an uptrend within a well-defined price channel, with strong support at the 3,390–3,400 range. After a short correction, the price could continue to rise if it holds above the EMA34, with the next target towards the 3,445–3,460 range and further up to 3,500 USD/ounce.
This upward momentum is supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. U.S. CPI data lower than expected has also increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, alongside central banks increasing gold reserves, all contributing to the continued rise in gold prices.
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag on CPI DayDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it in the short term.
***CPI DATA TODAY - Be Safe!
Key Confluence of Support @ 3319.00
Potential "LONG" Targets:
1] 3349.00
2] 3360.00
Alternatively -
Potential "SHORT" if key support is breached - Targets:
1] 3293.00
2] 3268.00
I sincerely hope my point of view offers you a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Please refer to my more long-term outlook below:
Gold is under pressure!OANDA:XAUUSD
My analysis is very faster working like rocket!
Now the resistance target is 3402
Length: 178
Direction: up
Quality: good
Pattern price: 3365
A potential uptick in the US CPI is not enough to rescue the dollar, with XAUUSD prices poised for a rally towards 3,400 USD.
Note: Today market is volatile for 4 extreme upcoming news, 1 from gbp, 3 from usd, So we will stop here and watching for next perfect buy entry. Thanks all
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 13, 2025🌀 Wave Structure Overview
As anticipated in previous plans, a strong bullish move has unfolded. Unfortunately, wave 2 within wave 3 was extremely sharp, triggering our stop loss — but that’s part of trading. Not every market movement will go perfectly as planned.
Currently, by closely observing wave 3, we can see that each bullish leg has shown similar length. This suggests a high probability of an extended wave, possibly wave 3 or wave 5.
In Elliott Wave theory, extended waves are the most difficult to predict in terms of where they will end. That’s why selling against the trend (“standing in front of the train”) is discouraged. Instead, we should rely on corrective structures to find buy opportunities in line with the main trend.
On the chart, the price is showing a 5-wave structure (i ii iii iv v) in purple. There’s also a possibility that wave iii itself is extending, forming 5 smaller waves, making a total of 9 subwaves — all with similar bullish momentum. This reinforces the potential for an extended wave in progress.
🎯 Target Zone for Wave iv Correction (Purple)
Watch levels: 3419 and 3411
This is the ideal zone to look for buying opportunities aligned with the prevailing uptrend.
📉 Momentum Analysis
- Daily (D1): Momentum remains bullish, which supports the continuation of the upward trend — a key requirement for a sustained wave move.
- H4: Momentum is currently in the overbought zone and may remain there for a while, waiting for D1 to also reach overbought. However, this also signals a potential risk of reversal that should not be ignored.
- H1: Momentum has turned downward, which supports the idea that wave iv is forming.
✅ Trade Plan
BUY ZONE: 3415 – 3412
STOP LOSS: 3405
TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: 3428
TP2: 3444
TP3: 3480
📌 Note: Stick to trend-following trades and avoid counter-trend positions that try to "catch the top." Be patient, wait for clear confirmation signals around wave iv’s zone, and manage your risk carefully.
GOLD GOLD ,April 3351 supply roof saw Sydney session take instant 100pips on early market open and if that layer is broken then we could be watching buyers print a new weekly high with 3500 ALTH in mind with extended buy touching 3530-3523 based on the structure. Its also giving aggressive buy into 3578-3580
Am watching the demand floor at 3393-3400 for buy
Gold Ready for Bullish MoveXAU/USD 15-Minute Analysis – Bullish Continuation Setup
Gold is forming a bullish structure above the support zone near 3427.100. Price has bounced from a demand zone and is now consolidating just below resistance. If the support holds, a bullish move toward the 3446.880 target area is expected. However, if price dips to retest 3427 and holds, it may offer a new long entry opportunity.
Key Levels:
• Support Zones: 3427.100 and 3419.215
• Resistance Target: 3446.880
• Outlook: Bullish above 3427
Is this week a chance for gold to break through 3,500?
⭐️Gold Information:
Gold prices surged for the third consecutive trading day on Friday as geopolitical tensions intensified after Israel launched a military strike on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and key leaders. The escalation of the situation triggered widespread risk aversion in global markets, stimulating demand for safe-haven assets. As of the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading at $3,431.
Gold surged to a five-week high of $3,446 before giving up gains as traders took profits before the weekend. Geopolitical turmoil, coupled with dovish signals released by recent US inflation data, reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates later this year - despite improved consumer confidence. These factors together support the bullish momentum of gold.
⭐️Personal Comment:
Continued military tensions next week are a big driving force for gold prices to continue to break through 3,500
. 🔥 Technical aspects:
Based on the resistance and support levels of gold prices in the H4 framework, the following important key areas can be identified:
Resistance: $3488, $3502, $3562
Support: $3382, $3342
Cpi effects on GoldH1 & H4 Timeframe
Gold is still on parallel channel and today we have CPI.Technically gold has to rise upto 3380 atleast for completion of trend although on CPI most of the chances gold will make a Dip.
What possible scenario we have?
Bearish scanario:
If 3320 breaks and candle closes below then keep focus on 3280-3290 target.
Bullish scanario
if gold breaks through H1 or H4 candle closes above 3345 we will continue to buy and look at 3380.
#XAUUSD