longterm buy, short-term sell After the complete 1-5 Elliot-Wave and the correction wave Bayer is still not in an upward trend. Despite Bayer's technical improvement, the stock is still not in an upward trend, and lower lows are not excluded in the coming quarters.
Currently, it appears that Bayer is beginning to move higher, and €46 in October may have represented a bottom. Although we shouldn't get too excited yet, since Bayer isn't technically in an upward trend until the stock moves above the last high of €74 (June 2020) and, ideally, also above the pre-pandemic high of €78. As year is coming close to an end and macroeconomic situation is not at its best, I expect the a bottom touch of €40 before it goes longterm up in the spring of 2023.
BAY trade ideas
Bayer AG at key supportBayer AG
Short Term
We look to Buy at 56.39 (stop at 54.46)
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation. The medium term bias is for higher levels but intraday signals are mixed. Previous support located at 56.00. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 56.00, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 61.39 and 65.99
Resistance: 66.00 / 70.00 / 110.00
Support: 56.00 / 50.00 / 43.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Bayer breaks mult-year trend resistanceThe Supreme Court has asked the Biden administration to comment on the RoundUp weed killer case before it. Bayer execs see this as an indication that the court is taking an interest in it, and appear hopeful that the glyphosate litigation can finally be put to rest without adding to the already staggering cost to the company. The 2018 acquisition of Monsanto, which put Bayer on the hook for the RoundUp product liability claims was (at least so far) devastating for Bayer shares, which remain 60% off their 2015 (!) peak.
The global seed and agricultural chemicals industry has undergone significant consolidation over the last decade, with Bayer absorbing Monsanto, Dow and Du Pont combining their agribusinesses into Corteva, Syngenta getting bought by ChemChina, and Potash and Agrium combining to form Nutrien.
Ultimately, this more concentrated supply should lead to better margins for the remaining competitors, especially in a world where climate change, rising population, and increasingly depleted soils will challenge global food supply.
I will be adding to BAYRY from here. This will be a strategic long-term holding. Since I don't anticipate selling in the next few years, I won't attempt to put a price target on it.
Bayer AG (BAYN.de) bullish scenario:The technical figure Channel Down can be found in the German company Bayer AG (BAYN.de) at daily chart. Bayer AG is a German multinational pharmaceutical and life sciences company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Bayer's areas of business include pharmaceuticals; consumer healthcare products, agricultural chemicals, seeds, and biotechnology products. The company is a component of the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index. The Channel Down has broken through the resistance line on 12/01/2021, if the price holds above this level you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 49 days towards 54.270 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 43.905 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Bayer AG on Monday struck a partnership deal with Mammoth Biosciences to develop therapeutic tools based on CRISPR/CAS9 gene editing as the German drug maker seeks to widen its cell and gene therapy development efforts.
Unlisted U.S. biotech firm Mammoth will initially receive $40 million from Bayer plus potential milestone payments of more than $1 billion contingent on scientific and commercial achievements.
The initial focus of the collaboration will be liver-based diseases, the companies said in a joint statement on Monday.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Bayer AG - another chance to reverse a 4 year long bearish trendDaily:
- Ichimoku setup is neautral, with some bullish bias. Price attempts a bullish cloud breakout, which in case of a success would mean a break of the long term bearish trendline too.
- HA price action and indicators are positive
- EWO is picking up
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish. Price trades above weekly Kijun (26 weeks average)
- A possible higher low print in Dec/2021.
- Upper key levels to confirm a bullish trend reversal is around 51,15.
- Weekly EWO is still negative
This stock still has to do some hard work to reverse, but it must be put on your watchlist. In case it decisively broke out and reversed the trend, it would have a decebt upside target to around 80.
Long BAYER - Trading & Portfolio To evaluate XETR:BAYN share in the short term, it is necessary to make a premise on the weekly chart.
The trend is bearish from 2015 until today, the stock has gone from just over 140 in the spring of 2015, to just under 40 in October 2020; today XETR:BAYN is around 47.
In the weekly chart you can see several recurrences:
1) Bullish divergences between prices and indicators (February 2016 - September 2016 and December 2018 - May 2019) with subsequent price rebound of about 30-35% from the breaking of the trendline.
2) Failure of new relative highs (post bullish divergences) both in 2017 and in the V-shaped rebound occurred post lockdown Covid-19 in 2020.
In the last weeks, prices are approaching the bearish trendline , after having marked a double relative low in the 44 area, without reaching the previous low in the 40 area.
Given these premises, the daily chart has created several interesting movements from August 2021 until today. First of all, I point out the bullish divergence of the August-September 2021 period, which was followed by a rebound in the price of XETR:BAYN from 45 to 51 (approximately + 13%), a rebound that was "perfectly" interrupted on the trendline of the weekly chart. Subsequently, the price fell again, marking new relative lows in area 44, and then building an interesting LONG entry in the last month.
In detail, I personally noticed the following patterns:
1) Tweezer Bottom Pattern created by the lower shadows of the 2 candles indicated in the circle, the second candle is also a Southern Doji (without body); this corroborates the reversal potential.
2) Cup & Handle (forced) as the second corner is very wide, and is more like a double low. However, overall the pattern indicates further reversal potential; as the price did not hit new lows below 44.
3) Currently the price is inside the resistance zone created by the previous gap. That zone was breached intraday, but not with daily candles, so in my view it is somewhat intact but less "strong".
Given these analyzes, several LONG strategies could be constructed.
In the short term (very short), a strategy could be set up with the following values:
- Entry price: 47.00 (current value)
- Stop Loss: 45.70 (approximately -2.7%) -> value taken from the last gap
- Target Price: 51.00 (approximately + 8.5%) -> value chosen for the relative maximum of November 2021
If XETR:BAYN stock will reach the value of 50.00, it could be considered to modify the stop loss by bringing it above the entry price, allowing any gains to run.
From a short/medium term perspective, a strategy could be set up with the following values:
- Entry price: 47.00 (current value)
- Stop Loss: 43.50 (approximately -7.5%) -> value below the last relative minimum of 44
- Target Price: 57.00 (approximately + 21%) -> value chosen for the relative maximum of May 2021
If XETR:BAYN stock will reach the value of 54.00 (Gap still open), it could be considered to modify the stop loss, bringing it to the 51.00 area and letting any gains run.
In a long-term and portfolio construction perspective, the holding of XETR:BAYN could be evaluated, given the following considerations.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Bayer operates in the pharmaceutical chemical sector in businesses related to the improvement of the quality of life. The first sector is the pharmaceutical and the second is the agricultural, through which it supplies products that improve the quality of food. Bayer consolidates 420 companies in over 90 countries with a total of 117,000 employees. The company is very active in portfolio rationalization operations. The last significant acquisition implemented in 2018 was that of Monsanto, financed with a capital increase of EUR6bn.
Geographically, Bayer achieved 35.7% of turnover in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, 29.2% in North America, 20.5% in Asia and 14.6% in Latin America.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Corporate business recovering in 2021 after 2020 affected by the pandemic. After a first half year with growing turnover and better profitability (EBIT returned to positive and net loss reduced to EUR 246 million from 8 billion in 1H20), the third quarter also improved in terms of sales (+ 14.3%) and profitability. Net profit of EUR 85 million against a loss of EUR 2.7 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The good results prompted the management to improve again the forecast for 2021: turnover at EUR 44 billion and EPS in the range of EUR 6.5-6.7 vs respectively 43 billion and EUR 6.4-6.6 range estimated in August .
No new extraordinary costs have been allocated related to the dispute with the US Supreme Court in relation to the Roundup affair (herbicide based on glyphosate considered carcinogenic), denoting how Bayer, after the compensation plans proposed in recent years, is now more confident for a favorable sentence , expected by 2022.
In this long-term context, the position is to be considered without stop loss and any entry and exit prices will be evaluated in the future, based on how the stock will behave in the coming weeks; as XETR:BAYN stock is part of the pharmaceutical sector and is therefore a "defensive" stock.
Dr. Cunti Mattia, CFTe®, EFA
** WARNING **
The content of the analysis just carried out is the result of personal opinions and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
These views therefore do not constitute advice or a recommendation to invest or disinvest.
The analyzes are for informational purposes only, and do not constitute personalized advice, as the writer does not know the personal characteristics of any of the readers, especially income flows, ability to bear losses, equity consistency.
Bayer Swing TradeHello, as im slowly going from crypto to stock Trading here´s a random Stock Play.
30-35eur Zone is historic Support zone and also the support from the downward channel.
Im not shorting it but will Swing trade from ~33 to 55.
Pretty confident in this setup as 2 Supprts cross each other at 33eur Range, that is one of my favorite setups when trading.
Dyor and im propably recommending to also use sl as im not fundamentally confident in Bayer in the long term.
This is purely TA, i didnt research Bayer fundamentals, just you know.
Bayer AG attempts a multi year bearish trend line breakOn daily time frame (left panel) the Ichimoku setup has turned absolutely Bullish. What's more, on back of another better than expected earnings reported today, the price action gave a buy signal and price started to attack a very long term trend line.
Funadmenytally all bad news had been discounted into price including Monsanto story, provisionings, etc., meanwhile the company has been delivering better results, beating analyst forecasts.
Looking at the weekly it has some more job to do technically, but once it establishes a long term uptrend, it will give us an extremely great upside.
From now on the recommendation is accumulate, and hold.
BAYN: Long (end of cycle + support)Hello everyone!!!
Bayer AG at the channel support. There is hope for the end of the bearish trend that began in 2015.
Additionally, according to the cyclical analysis, we can see the completion of a cycle of 1610 days (or 230 weeks, or 4.5 years). The cycle was repeated 7 times: of which 5 times there was an increase in the share price and 2 times - a fall. Therefore, this time too, we can expect the price to rise at least to the slope and horizontal resistance lines - about € 79 or 70% = take profit.
My stop loss is set at € 42.610 (about -12% and 3% below the last local low).
As for the indicators, the background is bullish. However, there was a huge bullish gap in 1996 and it has not been closed until now ....
I plan to increase my position using the pyramiding method.
Not a recommendation, not advice.
I wish everyone a lot of profit !!
PS
Bayer AG - is a German multinational pharmaceutical and life sciences company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Headquartered in Leverkusen, Bayer's areas of business include human and veterinary pharmaceuticals; consumer healthcare products; agricultural chemicals, seeds and biotechnology products. The company is a component of the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index. Werner Baumann has been CEO since 2016.
Founded in Barmen in 1863 as a dyestuffs factory, Bayer's first and best-known product was aspirin.
en.wikipedia.org