NFLX trade ideas
NETFLIX gives a confirmed MEGA BUY signalWe've been bullish on Netflix (NFLX) since early Summer after the price held the 1M MA200 (yellow trend-line), which as we noted on our April 21 analysis, is the historical Support:
Even though the drop didn't complete the expected -80% drop, it did come close enough (-76.50%) and as you see the rebound since the mid May bottom has been massive already (+87%). The price is now close to hitting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the first week of January.
The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame and illustrates NFLX's long-term price action since it's first trading day. Though the scale is logarithmic, we can fit the price action within a Channel Up. The recent May bottom was exactly on the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) just like the previous Higher Low in late July 2012.
The catalyst that is making us claim that Netflix formed a bottom and is giving a confirmed long-term buy signal is the fact that the price continues to rise even after the formation of the Death Cross (bearish signal technically), which is when the 1W MA50 crosses below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In all (2) previous occurrences (July 2012, April 2005), the stock price had already formed its bottom and was at the start of a very aggressive rally towards its previous All Time High. The current Death Cross was formed in August (2022) and the +87% already shows how this is similar to past bottoms.
There is a Lower Highs trend-line involved (dotted line) which during the past two rallies, was the initial target. In the 00s the price took a while before making a new All Time High while in the early 2010s it took just a few months after touching the (dotted) Lower Highs trend-line. As a long-term target, an investor could use the Multiple 3 (red trend-line), from the Fib MAs indicator.
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NFLX 9/25/2022NFLX
NFLX went down like Joe exotic.
Covid took NFLX from 380 to 700. This uptrend lasted about 582 days.
It only took 67 days for the market to take away all the covid gains! The bag holder had no time to react.
NFLX has now given back all the covid gains and then some.
Price continued its downslide under the 50 ema all the way until it found support at 170.
Price bounced off support and ripped thru the 50ema for the 1st time in since it entered downtrend in Jan.โ22
The break of the 50ema signals a pause in the uptrend and price entering a consolidation stage.
Price has now formed what looks like a Double top pattern with a neckline support at 220.
We also have a bearish MACD divergence with the current price action.
Although price has not broken the neckline yet to confirm the double top, the MACD bearish divergence has signaled that price is losing momentum.
With such strong bearing seller pressure from above, I expect the bears to break thru the neckline and continue downtrend.
Bearish trend reversal pattern + downtrend = High probability short trade.
Will be entering trade short taking swing trade to low of 170.
Entry: 226.34
Stop loss: 259
Target: 170.20, +24.80%, 1.72 RR ratio
NFLX SHORT IS COMINGDuring a parabolic move, the price goes up in a steep upward incline on a chart as buying increases dramatically bidding up a price higher and higher with little if any short-term pullbacks.
A parabolic move on a chart is one of the most powerful types of chart patterns showing extreme fear of missing out and chasing prices higher and higher until it depletes all possible buyers. A parabolic move many times can go into extremely overbought readings over the 70 RSI and be over 4 to 5 deviations from the 20-day moving average. Additionally, we have an island reversal at $260 areas, so we have multiple confirmations which makes a higher probability.
Good Luck :)
RectanglesPrice is above bands but is not overbought on RSI.
Price is above the upper trendline of both structures that share the same top trendline after an earnings beat.
There is a large rectangle with a smaller rectangle inside.
Market up and down and may cause issues with meeting next target due to profit taking.
Target 1 has been met.
The .618 of the trend up appears to be causing some resistance.
Short interest is around 2.5%.
Candle of indecision at the .618 that is changing from a spinning top to a doji as I type. This candle may change again by close.
No recommendation.
Unfilled gap below and above price.
Netflix 100% jump Hey friends, Netflix reported positive earnings again for the first time in Q3 2022. What a coincidence, though, that the stock has been trending upward again for 162 days. The Netflix stock has gained almost 80% in value and the recently published quarterly figures seem to indicate that we have finally seen the bottom of the streaming giant.
Netflix has now completed its first five-part run with a high at around $288, but which can still easily extend to $300. After that, I expect a wave 2 sell-off to the 0.786 retracement at $190.23.
If the share rises sustainably in a wave 3, a price jump of at least 100% is possible! The wave 3 reaches at least the 1.618 extension at 394.14$ (107.41%)
So the next time at NFLX will be exciting!