NVIDIA $NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $148.75 - $165.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $138.00 - $148.75
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $118.25 - $138.00
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
NASDAQ:NVDA reports earnings today, these are the areas that I will look for significant price movement at. The market is anticipating around an 8.5% move, roughly an $11.50 move in either direction, based on ATM option prices, or an 11%-12% move, roughly $16.50 move in either direction, based on volatility calculations.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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NVDA trade ideas
LONG NVDA at 135.93 because it's oversold There's not really much more to say that I haven't said the last 2 times I cleaned up on $NVDA. See my previous NVDA ideas for details. It's a good stock, it's still in an uptrend, it's on sale, and my algo hasn't been wrong yet on it, so why stop now? I'm going long because Black Friday came a little early this year.
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Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still oversold and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any price that is profitable.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Short $NVDA - Macro PlayYep, I'm a contrarian. It is time to short $NVDA.
Way overbought on RSI. Decreasing volume. Wicking candles... and, on top of that, I see some cyclicality here. We tend to see this with Nvidia since 2018 where the rallies are followed by a quick precipitious drop. The next cycle shift should start in January and should likely be a 6-month drawdown.
I'm betting we see the price back down to the mid-range EMA cloud and test a price range of $75 to $45. If you go short, just know that this is going to be a difficult one to hold through the journey given the focus on this stock.
That said, number can't go up forever.
The Probabilities are stacking up that Nvidia has ToppedAs I have long forecasted, Nvidia is coming into a top of either primary or intermediate degree proportion. The answer to that burning question of mine I believe gets answered in the depth of the price action's retracement lower.
Determining this answer, for me personally as an analyst, is whether or not that eventual retrace can hold above the $90.68 level, which as of this morning stands at 34% lower...so by no means am I looking at this as a mere retracement. 34% is nothing if not significant.
Along the way, we're more informed in the confidence of this forecasted pathway, if price breaches the important $128.74 level. Upon seeing such price action, I believe in the weeks (or months) ahead we could see Nvidia's price action first test $102.73 area. To hold that level and reverse in a micro 5-wave pattern, could bring about our final advance into the $170 (+) area for a long term top. That top I am forecasting in years...not months.
To breakdown below $102.73 could see us decline to as low as the low $70's before a corrective (but Tradeable) rally takes place.
Best to all,
Chris
NVIDIA: A Critical Juncture in its TrendNVIDIA’s stock has been on an impressive upward trajectory this year, but recent price action suggests it’s approaching a pivotal point. The stock has been riding a strong uptrend, anchored by a key trendline stretching from earlier lows this year. This trendline serves as dynamic support, and the current price is hovering near this critical level. Whether it holds or breaks could define the stock’s direction in the coming weeks.
A significant support zone between $130 and $140 adds to the importance of this region. This area, which previously acted as resistance, is now being retested as support. A bounce here would affirm bullish strength and could propel the stock toward its recent highs. However, there are signs of caution. Increased volume on recent bearish candles suggests selling pressure is mounting. If the price breaks below both the trendline and the support zone, it could signal a deeper correction, with the next significant support levels likely near $115 or even $100.
The immediate resistance for NVDA lies in the $150 range, where the stock previously struggled to push higher. This level represents a key obstacle for bulls. For a continuation of the bullish trend, a decisive breakout above this zone is necessary. Conversely, bearish signals, such as the recent bearish engulfing candles, indicate that sellers are gaining control, at least in the short term. A failure to hold the $130 level would confirm a breakdown and likely accelerate the downside.
For long-term investors, NVIDIA’s AI-driven growth story remains intact, but caution is warranted at these elevated valuation levels. For traders, this is a decisive moment, with opportunities both for those looking to trade the bounce and for those eyeing a breakdown.
This is a pivotal moment for NVIDIA, and patience is key in determining the next move.
$NVDA Great Dip OpportunityPrevious $128.75 Lows to $144.42 Highs = Drop to 0.786 Fib ($132)
Current $132.07 Lows to $152.90 Highs = Drop to 0.786 Fib ($136)
Gap #1: $138.66 - $141.10 (1.6% - 3.5% Gain from Current Price $136)
Gap #2: $143.89 - $146.30 (5.5% - 7.3% Gain from Current Price $136)
Currently down around 11% from All-Time Highs.
Likely to see a Bounce in the nearby future.
NVDA Bearish movementsAfter my last analysis everything seems to be headed the direction I have predicted. Beautiful doble top and break of minor trendline. I expect that the bearish flag that broke channel to the downside continues more movement with the minor bearish flag it created at close of market today in order to continue movement toward major trendline for a bounce.
In just a few more days we can buy at a discount NVDA for the upside again.
NVDA Exhaust NVDA has a unique way of going down to scale up in a multiple flag pattern towards each highs.
Last time NVDA had a leg on it’s major trend-line was July 2024.
This up movement it just did is changing the way NVDA usually scales back up and bring a similarity to when it dropped when it bounced of 131 resistance down to 110.
My prediction is this high movement to the upside is a reaction before earnings, which will cause a reason to take liquidity on the remaining portion of the resistance to become bearish.
NVDA can drop down to the FVP that never closed on the 120 area in order to make another leg on its bullish major trend-line.
If the news are good enough after the chip issue then it invalidates my prediction. But I am feeling confident on this change of structure, since NVDA is moving differently in nature.
NVDA | Unpacking NVIDIA’s Q3 FY25Building the Matrix, One GPU at a Time
This week, NVIDIA unveiled its October quarter results, capturing global attention as analysts closely monitored the stock's movements. While Wall Street often emphasizes short-term performance, a broader perspective highlights NVIDIA's remarkable rise. Over two years, its stock value has multiplied tenfold, outpacing tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon in profitability and edging closer to Microsoft and Apple in net income—a meteoric ascent for the history books.
The AI Inflection Point
NVIDIA's transformation began in November 2022 when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, described by CEO Jensen Huang as AI's "iPhone moment." Fast-forward two years, and NVIDIA's latest Blackwell GPU architecture is scaling up production, meeting surging demand. As Huang explained, "The age of AI is in full steam," driven by foundational model training and inference advancements. Two major trends underpin this shift:
-Platform evolution:Transitioning from traditional coding to machine learning.
-Emergence of AI factories:New industries powered by generative AI applications.
AI native startups are booming, and successful inference services are proliferating. If AI's trajectory mirrors the mobile revolution, this is akin to 2009 a pivotal moment with much more innovation ahead.
Q3 FY25 Highlights
NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in January, and the recently concluded October quarter (Q3 FY25) demonstrated strong momentum:
- Revenue: $35.1 billion (+17% quarter-over-quarter), exceeding expectations by $2 billion.
- Segment growth:**
- Data Center: +17% QoQ ($30.8 billion).
- Gaming: +14% QoQ ($3.3 billion).
- Automotive: +30% QoQ ($0.4 billion).
- Margins: Gross margin at 75%, operating margin at 62%.
- Cash flow: Operating cash flow of $17.6 billion; free cash flow of $16.8 billion.
- Q4 FY25 Guidance: Anticipates +7% revenue growth ($37.5 billion).
Key Drivers and Insights
-Data Center Dominance:Contributing 88% of overall revenue, driven by Hopper GPUs and the anticipated Blackwell production ramp.
-Gaming Growth:Propelled by GeForce RTX GPU demand and back-to-school sales.
-Automotive Innovation:Growth fueled by AI-powered autonomous driving solutions.
-Margins:Slight compression due to Blackwell production ramp, with recovery expected as production scales.
Looking ahead, demand for NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs outpaces supply, likely remaining constrained into FY26. However, challenges loom, including intensifying competition from AMD and custom AI chips.
The AI Scaling Debate
Skeptics argue AI scalability may be approaching its limits, but Huang is optimistic, citing advancements in reinforcement learning and inference-time scaling. He emphasized that AI's growth is driven by empirical laws, suggesting scalability could be extended through methods like post-training and test-time scaling.
CEO and CFO Perspectives
- Huang likens modern data centers to "AI factories," producing intelligence like power plants generate electricity.
- The shift to "physical AI" unlocks applications in industrial and robotics sectors, powered by NVIDIA's Omniverse.
- Blackwell GPUs are delivering significant cost reductions and accelerating AI workloads.
Investment Outlook
Despite valuation concerns, NVIDIA's profitability is tangible. However, the company's reliance on sustained GPU demand and a concentrated customer base presents risks. Meanwhile, competition from AMD is intensifying.
Final Thoughts
If ChatGPT was AI's "iPhone moment," the transformation is just beginning. Like the app economy in 2009, the AI-first revolution is poised to unlock entirely new markets and reshape industries. NVIDIA's leadership positions it at the forefront of this multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
NVIDIA I Set for Potential 20%+ Upside – Key Level Buy Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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NVDA Scalping & Swing Strategy: Liquidity Zones and Next MoveNVDA continues to show dynamic price action, making it an exciting candidate for both scalping and swing trades. Let's break down its current price structure, key levels, and potential trade setups based on technical analysis.
Market Structure:
1. Current Range: NVDA is oscillating between $137 (major support) and $152.91 (key resistance).
2. EMA Analysis: The 9 EMA and 21 EMA on the hourly chart indicate a bearish crossover, showing selling pressure dominating in the short term.
3. Volume Trends: Declining volume suggests indecision. A volume spike near key levels will confirm the next move.
Liquidity Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $137–$137.50. Buyers previously stepped in here, and liquidity is concentrated at this level.
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $152–$153. This is a critical zone where sellers rejected higher prices multiple times.
Key Levels:
* Support: $137.06, $141.77.
* Resistance: $144.25, $152.91.
Price Action Insights:
1. NVDA has printed lower highs, signaling bearish intent. However, the current support near $137 is holding firm, showing that buyers are active.
2. Two rejection wicks at $152 suggest that this resistance is a strong hurdle for bulls.
3. Watch for breakout momentum above $144.25 or a breakdown below $137 for confirmation of the next direction.
Order Blocks:
* Bullish Order Block: Around $137. A consolidation area where institutional buying may occur again.
* Bearish Order Block: $152–$153 zone, where sellers aggressively defended the price.
Entry & Exit Suggestions:
For Scalping:
* Entry: Look for a pullback entry near $141.50 if price shows bullish rejection wicks and volume supports upside momentum.
* Target: $144.25 (partial profits), $152 (final target).
* Stop-Loss: Below $140 to minimize downside risk.
For Swing Trade:
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $144.25 after a clear breakout with volume confirmation.
* Target: $152.91, followed by $157 for a longer-term play.
* Stop-Loss: Below $141 to protect against false breakouts.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: On a break below $137 with strong bearish candles and volume.
* Target: $130 psychological support.
* Stop-Loss: Above $138.
Thoughts & Projections:
* Bullish Case: If NVDA holds above $141.77 and breaks $144.25, it could aim for $152. However, a lack of momentum above $152 might lead to sideways action.
* Bearish Case: A breakdown below $137 could trigger significant selling pressure, targeting $130 as the next support.
Playbook & Gameplan:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Mark $137 and $144.25 on your chart.
* Monitor volume and price behavior near these levels.
2. Scalping Checklist:
* Wait for clear rejection wicks or engulfing candles.
* Use the 9 EMA for short-term trend confirmation.
* Take quick profits; NVDA can be volatile.
3. Swing Checklist:
* Look for higher time frame candle closes above $144.25 or below $137.
* Hold positions longer only if volume confirms breakout strength.
Conclusion:
NVDA is positioned for explosive moves as it consolidates near key liquidity zones. Scalpers can focus on quick trades between $141 and $144, while swing traders should wait for confirmation beyond the $137–$152 range. Stay disciplined and stick to your plan.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before making any trades.
Watch for Potential Reversal Amid VolatilityRecent Performance: Nvidia's stock has been caught in a bearish trend,
breaking critical support levels with considerable volatility around
earnings announcements. Although the latest revenue report surpassed
expectations driven by strong demand in AI and data center operations, the
market’s reaction has been lackluster, leading to a sell-off post-earnings.
The broader tech sector also exhibits mixed performance, contrasting with
upward stability in competitors like Tesla and Amazon.
- Key Insights: Investors should remain cautious but attentive as Nvidia
navigates significant support levels. The company's promising outlook in AI
and robotics suggests long-term growth potential, yet concerns about its
high valuation may create resistance against upward momentum. Watching the
immediate support and resistance points will be crucial in gauging short-
term viability for trades.
- Expert Analysis: While many analysts retain a bullish perspective on Nvidia's
long-term prospects, caution surrounds its high valuation coupled with the
risk of an impending market correction. Revised price targets reflect a
spectrum of optimism heavily influenced by the demand in the AI sector. The
contrasting price targets highlight deeper market uncertainties, urging
investors to monitor share price closely.
- Price Targets: Based on professional traders' insights, next week’s targets
are set as follows:
- Next week targets: T1 = 160, T2 = 175
- Stop levels: S1 = 140, S2 = 137
- Ensure S2 < S1 < current_price (N/A) < T1 < T2 to comply with trading
strategies.
- News Impact: Nvidia's recent earnings report illustrated record revenue but
failed to maintain momentum, triggering sell-offs due to investor hesitance
about sustaining growth. The company's strategic investments in AI and
robotics underline its commitment to future growth, but speculative risks
loom. Furthermore, its addition to the Dow highlights increased market
interest, warranting ongoing scrutiny from investors.
This analysis strives to encapsulate Nvidia's present standing while preparing
investors to react adaptively to market shifts and sentiment fluctuations in the
coming week.
Nvdia GeardownAfter nailing the bottom in 2023 and selling over the years took my biggest stack and faded last week into the vwap everyday, looking at short opportunities now. Keep your eyes glued to that support level. Already broke on a huge volatility day enjoy the ride, Bounce here needs to lineup with the rest of the market, maybe see another rally we could fade
NVIDIA 200 BY 2025 Reasons Why NVIDIA Could Reach $200 by 2025
NVIDIA (NVDA) has been at the forefront of technological innovation, particularly in the realms of AI and graphics processing, positioning it well for significant stock price growth. Here are several reasons why NVIDIA's stock might hit $200 by 2025:
Dominance in AI and Data Center Markets:
NVIDIA's GPUs are the backbone for many AI and machine learning applications. Their leadership in this space, especially with the advent of AI-driven technologies across industries, is expected to keep revenue growth robust. The company's data center segment has seen exponential growth, with analysts predicting a continued upward trend due to the increasing demand for computing power in AI applications.
Strategic Product Roadmap:
NVIDIA's product pipeline, including the Blackwell architecture, is anticipated to propel the company forward. The Blackwell chips, expected to launch in 2025, are designed to push performance boundaries for AI applications, potentially capturing more market share and driving revenue. The expectation around these new architectures creates a bullish outlook for NVIDIA's stock.
Strong Financial Performance:
NVIDIA's financial results have consistently outperformed expectations. For instance, Q2 FY 2025 saw a revenue increase of 122% year over year, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain high growth rates. Despite a natural slowdown expected due to tougher year-over-year comparisons, the company's growth is still projected to be impressive at around 43% for FY 2026, supporting a narrative of sustained stock price appreciation.
High Barriers to Entry and Market Moats:
The complexity and performance of NVIDIA's offerings create high barriers for competitors, ensuring NVIDIA's market leadership. Analysts highlight NVIDIA's 24-month technological lead in AI GPUs, with high switching costs for customers locked into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This moat is expected to support premium pricing and market share retention, which could translate into stock value growth.
Analyst Optimism:
Numerous Wall Street analysts have set price targets for NVIDIA well above its current levels, with some predicting it could hit $200 or more by 2025. These forecasts are based on NVIDIA's strong fundamentals, technological edge, and market position in AI and computing solutions.
Market Sentiment and Valuation:
Even though NVIDIA's stock trades at a premium valuation (62 times trailing earnings as of recent data), analysts believe that its growth trajectory justifies this price. If NVIDIA continues to meet or exceed growth expectations, its valuation could expand further, driving the stock price towards $200. However, achieving this target would require either a significant earnings surge or a market sentiment favoring even higher multiples for tech growth stocks.
Global AI Adoption:
Posts on X highlight the ongoing global shift towards AI, with NVIDIA at the forefront. The demand for NVIDIA's computing solutions is expected to grow as AI becomes more integral to various sectors, from automotive to cloud computing, thereby supporting stock price growth.
$NVDA NEOWAVE ANALYSIS Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning
CRASH INCOMING!!
The pattern is a Diametric
A Diametric is a 7-legged formation
NVDA has reached the target for wave G
The action following a Diametric pattern does not depend on the Diametric itself.
If the movement after wave-G is not more stronger and faster than waves-B, D, and F, then an X-wave is likely forming. If it is, then the Diametric could be part of a larger pattern in progress, or it could represent wave-1 or 3 in a Terminal formation.