LI Auto - Looking oversold and hoping for a bounce around hereLI has been caught up in the various electric vehicle crash investigations and been pushed back down to a support level.
Looking for a bounce off support, but will wait for confirmation.
2015 trade ideas
Li Auto: Challenges, Opportunities and Stock ValuationThe company is expected to report its Q2 2021 financial results on August 30.
Li Auto will use the money from the secondary public offering to develop a battery EV.
Li ONE is a good-selling model – but the company is yet to prove its ability to roll out a mature BEV.
There are concerns about Li's technology and goal-setting, but there is room for improvement.
Li Auto is fairly priced. Investors who have faith in EREV are encouraged to buy into the stock now.
On August 12, 2021, Li Auto (LI:NASDAQ) started trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It has become the second Chinese EV company to be listed on both hemispheres. Having collected CNY 11.6 billion while operating on dry powder, how will the company expand afterward? This article will do a business review of Li Auto and value its stock.
The impediments arising from COVID-19 have not stopped China's EV market from sprinting in 2021. Among a wealth of EV companies, Li Auto delivered 38,743 units of Li ONE in the first half of that year, surpassing the previous year's figure. But the company's fundamentals are still somewhat overshadowed by those of its counterparts in the space.
Technical bottlenecks, unrealistic goals
According to our previous research, Li Auto has spent a lower percentage of revenue on research and development compared with NIO and Xpeng. More importantly, the Li ONE model uses the range extender as a core technology, one that has been used globally for some years now.
Specifically, this technology was first commercially used on the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF in late 2010. The extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) is fully powered by electric motors but has an internal combustion engine (ICE) to generate additional electric power. The battery pack will supply power to motors when it is fully charged. When the battery's power decreases to a specified level, the ICE-powered generator switches on to supply power to the electric motor and/or recharges the battery. The technology allows ICE to charge batteries but consumes noticeably less fuel than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Thus, vehicle owners can either charge cars with gasoline or electricity. In short, the range extender is a transitional solution and will likely be outdated in a few years as the battery cost quickly decreases and EV infrastructure upgrades. Presumably, BEV will account for a higher percentage of EV as EV penetrates the broader market.
BEV development needs to meet professionalism/technology thresholds in battery, electric control and electric motor. Although most OEMs buy solutions from tier-one or tier-two manufacturers, a lot of work is needed for benchmarking and integrating these components into a mature product. Li Auto doesn't have enough expertise in this field. Based on Li's most recent prospectus, the company plans to roll out two new BEVs in 2023. We have doubts about whether the company will be able to finalize a mature product at that time.
Besides, Li Auto's management set an exaggerated expectation of the company's EV sales that has alerted its investors. In February 2021, the company announced its outlook internally. The founder set a goal for the company to reach 1.6 million in annual EV sales by 2025. Such a target will be hard to achieve. 1.6 million vehicles equal Toyota's 2019 sales in China. Toyota, the Japanese auto giant, has been selling cars in the Chinese market for 20 years and has accumulated a much larger customer base and global reputation than Li Auto. An ambition to become a brand as famous as Toyota in five years appears challenging, to say the least. Having 1.6 million deliveries by 2025, inter alia, means that the annual delivery figures are projected to grow at a 170% CAGR, a rather high rate.
Opportunities and attempts to catch up
Notwithstanding, Li Auto still has an opportunity to join the group of tech leaders. Within the fast-growing EV industry, there are many suppliers providing solutions like ADAS, Lidar and third-party charging infrastructure – and, incentivized by China's state policies, new upstarts appear daily in these areas. The technological 'backwardness' of Li Auto might be resolved through a couple of acquisitions. The company, meanwhile, is taking some actions to drive innovation internally; for example, it started building an R&D center in Shanghai in April 2021.
Li ONE, a best-selling model, also brought the public's attention to Li Auto. Li Auto's management expects over 10,000 sales in September 2021. We think the reason Li Auto has such strong momentum is due to its product positioning. One of the examples will be a family-oriented SUV with 6 to 7 seats. Compared to the competing models with the same price, this SUV is equipped with an entertainment system that includes three screens and appears to be a more economical option. The consistency in product positioning has made Li Auto a popular brand.
Valuation
To evaluate Li Auto's stock in a simplistic manner, we forecast Li's 2022 car sales will be around 130,000 to 140,000 units. With an assumed average revenue generated per car of CNY 284,000, according to the Q1 2021 financials, the total revenue for 2022 will be USD 5.7 billion to USD 6.1 billion. Because of Li Auto's ongoing technology transition, the multiple is halved to 5 times of 2022 revenue. Therefore, the projected market capitalization of Li Auto is USD 28.5 billion to USD 30.5 billion.
Conclusion
Li ONE is highly likely to maintain strong sales momentum in the short run. But 2023 will be a challenging year depending on whether the company can succeed in rolling out battery electric vehicles. Compared with NIO, Xpeng and BYD, the stock is at half of their EV divisions' multiples and priced at a reasonable level. Due to some technical and strategic issues, the company's outlook is mixed. Now is a good time for investors who have faith in EREV to make a decision.
Idea for $LI based on fractals.Idea for $LI based on fractals
Investment strategy:
- hold and wait for buying for long long-range strategy
- sell for short-term strategy
LI Waiting to GoThere's a lot of resistance at 31, but once the price passes that with enough volume im expecting a very bullish uptrend like we've seen in the past from this stock. Good fib levels have been held and targets can be found via fib extension. Good formation of a wedge occuring now as consolidation increases. have CL set close since there could be strong moves down as well.
Li Auto Inc. Delivered Record 8,589 Units in JulyLi Auto added more than 10,000 orders in June, a record high, the company previously said.
Li Auto delivered 8,589 units of the Li ONE in July, the first time deliveries exceeded 8,000 units in a single month, up 251.3 percent year-over-year and 11.4 percent from June.
Li Auto currently has only one model, the Li ONE, on sale, with total deliveries of 38,743 units in the first seven months of the year, bringing cumulative deliveries to date to 72,340 units, according to data released by the company on Sunday.
"Before the end of the year, we will also launch a heavy-weight OTA upgrade that will take Li ONE's competitiveness to a whole new level," said Li Auto co-founder and president Shen Yannan.
Li Auto's direct retail system construction is accelerating, with plans to have 200 direct retail centers covering more than 100 cities in China by the end of 2021, the company said.
As of July 31, Li Auto had 109 retail centers in China, covering 67 cities, and 176 after-sales repair centers and authorized sheet metal spraying centers, covering 134 cities.
Li Auto released the 2021 Li ONE on May 25 with a starting price of CNY 338,000 (USD 52,300), CNY 10,000 higher than the previous version. Deliveries of the new Li ONE began on June 1.
Notably, despite the popularity of the 2021 Li ONE, owners are now beginning to complain about problems with the vehicle.
Several Weibo users have recently reported that their Li ONE vehicles are making unusual noises at high speeds, suspected to be emitted by the generator.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
$LI - Cup and Handle formationOver 5+ months long - Cup and Handle formation, coming to fruition. Oversold on RSI and Stochastic signaling an uptrend. I am looking to enter around $36.66 breakout with around 50% or more volume than the average of 10 days. Stop-loss 10% down at $32.99 and PT 20% ($36.72) and 30% ($47.70 ATH) - and maybe let some small runners run beyond that.
$LI LONGI like the set up on this one. Always caution of Chinese stocks, so only small position on this swing.
$Li Option$35 calls for 8-6. Lookin for a price target of $40-$42. Could set a Stop loss equivalent of $29. Technical indicators are MACD cross w a parabolic Sar all while sitting comfortably above the 4hr 200movonf average. Ez Peezy
Li Auto Delivered Record 7,713 Units in June, Up 320.6% YOYLi Auto delivered a record 7,713 units of the Li ONE, the company's only model, in June.
That's up 320.6 percent from a year ago and 78.4 percent from May, according to data released Friday by the company.
Li Auto added more than 10,000 new orders in June, an all-time high, the company said.
In the second quarter of 2021, Li Auto delivered a total of 17,575 units, up 166.1 percent year-over-year and 39.7 percent from the first quarter.
Li Auto's second-quarter deliveries were a single-quarter high and exceeded the upper end of its previous guidance figures.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
$LI Auto - Potential Bullish long Targeting 36 then 41Technically its better than other competitors $NIO $XPEV but RSI and MFI indicators are overbought - perhaps slow down then move up targeting 36 then 41 . Stoploss for bulls is little far away above 21 . Normally similar patterns takes weeks to arrive destinations. if broad markets pulled back then it will be nice entry above 21
There are 2 scenarios : Consolidations slowly above 23-21 then moves up during 3rd quarter . OR continue moving up towards targets before summer. 3rd scenarios is unlikely :)
bouncing backLI broke its the strongest resistance and might climb until the next resistance level. After long period of losing days, the stock is beginning to recover after broke all EMA. I think EV is coming back......
$LI Bullish Strong uptrend and good buying opportunity at lower lines. Longer term hold or short term swings are both options here.
LI bulish with big targets like 23.33, 26.10, 28.44, 33.29All these beautiful targets and ik many ppl are already bullish rn on LI because it crossed the blue trend line for me I want to see cross my white trend line which recently didn't pass through and got rejected and I only like to trade when I'm 100% sure when it crosses that 21.60 that will be an instant buy for me, stay safe guys let's see what happens
NASDAQ:LI
Li Auto Inc. BUY/LONG BIG POTENTIAL 16 to 45.25 By End 2021TICKER CODE: Li
Company Name: Li Auto Inc.
Industry: Consumer Cyclical | Auto Manufacturers | China
Position Proposed: BUY
Technical Analysis
1. Large Falling Wedge Pattern (Completed - Waiting for the break and retest)
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 (It has exceeded the range but on the monthly chart it is sitting on 0.786)
3. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
The market will more likely than not breakout next week or today then do a small pullback (The pullback might not happen)
Entry: NOW READY (16-22)
1st Partial Take Profit: 45.25 (August-End 2021)
2nd Partial Take Profit: 63.20 (Mid-End 2022)
LI: How low can this go?A falling wedge, an oversold RSI with low volumes. If these are not bullish signs and doesn't make this stock to trend up then nothing else will. If LI doesn't go up beginning next week, then it's not possible to say where it's going to stop, maybe under 10? Bearish Market is not giving up and inflation is looking hot these days so I'm going to stay in cash and avoid buying in until LI is closes above 23-24.
LI a strong buy?I have been looking for a nice opportunity to buy LI and I think with all the fear and selling lately this might be it, out below ipo prices (around 15% for me) however I feel a good future ahead and like the long term of this company.
Li Auto, ElliottWaves count, the bottom is in place!This is my ElliottWave count for Li Auto, according to my counting 3 5th Waves are now completed with the bottom being in place.
