BANK OF CHINA LTD stock discussion
EPS Forecast and Profitability Adjustments
CGSI has revised its earnings forecasts for ICBC, reducing the expected earnings per share (EPS) by 1.3-4.8% for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026. This adjustment is largely attributed to reduced forecasts for non-interest income in 2024 and pressure on pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for 2025-2026. Although net interest margins (NIM) remain under pressure due to falling rates in FY23 and the first half of FY24, the bank’s stability in EPS, coupled with a high dividend yield for FY24F, supports its positive outlook.
Target Price and Valuation
The target price for ICBC has been increased from HK$4.70 to HK$6.80. This adjustment reflects reduced concerns about policy risks, which were previously seen as a major drag on valuation. While the benefit of NIM recovery may be limited, the re-rating catalysts include improving loan demand and broader economic recovery. Key risks to this positive outlook include worse-than-expected NIM trends and any negative impacts from increased social responsibilities.
Financial Summary
Market Cap: US$291,423 million
Current Share Price: HK$4.83
Target Price: HK$6.80
EPS Forecast Changes: FY24F EPS cut by 1.3%, FY25F EPS by 2.9%, FY26F EPS by 4.8%
Dividend and Yield
The bank offers an attractive dividend yield of 7.03% for FY24, expected to slightly increase over FY25-26F, reinforcing ICBC’s appeal for income-seeking investors.
ESG Performance
In 2023, ICBC received a combined ESG score of “C” from LSEG, indicating room for improvement, particularly in the governance and social responsibility pillars. The bank has made significant efforts to integrate ESG considerations into its operations, including green finance initiatives, COVID-19 response efforts, and precision poverty alleviation loans. ICBC aims to double its renewable energy investment in the coming decade and is planning to phase out coal-related investments to align with China’s carbon neutrality goals by 2060.
Conclusion
ICBC’s valuation outlook is improving as a result of policy measures designed to support China’s banking sector and economy. Despite pressures on net interest margins and profitability, the bank’s stability, strong dividend yield, and reduced policy risks make it an attractive option for investors.
CGSI has revised its earnings forecasts for ICBC, reducing the expected earnings per share (EPS) by 1.3-4.8% for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026. This adjustment is largely attributed to reduced forecasts for non-interest income in 2024 and pressure on pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for 2025-2026. Although net interest margins (NIM) remain under pressure due to falling rates in FY23 and the first half of FY24, the bank’s stability in EPS, coupled with a high dividend yield for FY24F, supports its positive outlook.
Target Price and Valuation
The target price for ICBC has been increased from HK$4.70 to HK$6.80. This adjustment reflects reduced concerns about policy risks, which were previously seen as a major drag on valuation. While the benefit of NIM recovery may be limited, the re-rating catalysts include improving loan demand and broader economic recovery. Key risks to this positive outlook include worse-than-expected NIM trends and any negative impacts from increased social responsibilities.
Financial Summary
Market Cap: US$291,423 million
Current Share Price: HK$4.83
Target Price: HK$6.80
EPS Forecast Changes: FY24F EPS cut by 1.3%, FY25F EPS by 2.9%, FY26F EPS by 4.8%
Dividend and Yield
The bank offers an attractive dividend yield of 7.03% for FY24, expected to slightly increase over FY25-26F, reinforcing ICBC’s appeal for income-seeking investors.
ESG Performance
In 2023, ICBC received a combined ESG score of “C” from LSEG, indicating room for improvement, particularly in the governance and social responsibility pillars. The bank has made significant efforts to integrate ESG considerations into its operations, including green finance initiatives, COVID-19 response efforts, and precision poverty alleviation loans. ICBC aims to double its renewable energy investment in the coming decade and is planning to phase out coal-related investments to align with China’s carbon neutrality goals by 2060.
Conclusion
ICBC’s valuation outlook is improving as a result of policy measures designed to support China’s banking sector and economy. Despite pressures on net interest margins and profitability, the bank’s stability, strong dividend yield, and reduced policy risks make it an attractive option for investors.
