9618 trade ideas
[JD] phase 4 -> Don't buyThe price is going down. We don't see a historical (2 years) support. RSI is very low. Don't buy!
JD.COM Target reached + strong bounceJD.COM reached it's target and bounced 8% from the support. If it comes back to the level around 19 I might buy...
JD Falling Wedge Watching this for next week. Lots of Chinese stocks have been hard hit recently. I think they're poised for some near term relief. Wedge target would be $30 by taking a 1 to 1 extension of the wedge's height to the breakout point. Will try to update over the coming days.
JD forming bullish divergence inside descending triangleDescending triangles tend to be bullish consolidation pattern. Confirmation will be achieved upon breakout of the triangle. Long positions would be promising to open in the range of $21-24 with a short term target of $30-31. Longer term we think this stock can go back to $100.
Is JD.com about to breakoutLooks like a lot of congruence happening on the Daily RSI and MACD with a possible breakout next week. Confirmation above 28.00 and a Daily RSI above 40, coincidentally at ER. Options play from now until then, could be an easy 25 Strike Call for the end of October
$JD - JD.com $10M Bearish Bet$JD - JD.com saw a big $10M+ bearish bet today via the Jan'19 $70 Puts (very deep in the money - current stock price ~25.50) with 2,400 contracts purchased for ~$4,400 per contract.
The chart supports the bearish prediction with the price having been respecting the 50d ema for the majority of the summer on the 2H chart.
Medium term target - $23.00-23.50 area by mid-October (long term support levels)
Playing the Stoch'sA lot of fundamentals changed with JD recently but playing the Stochastic RSI before the news would've been very profitable.
Bull Div in the blue gave a nice relief bounce until the Hidden Bear Div stopped the party.
IMO the aggression of the sell off (from a price perspective) once the news about Liu hit, suggests momentum was already subsiding.
I'll be knife catching this one soon when the turbulence dies down a little. All in at $22.
JD.com trading at a blatant valuation discount- LONGOne of the trends taking place in my portfolio is an increased weighting in China's technology sector.
Amid the trade-driven pessimism over China, clamp down on digital assets and increased control over online content China's economy is trading at a blatant valuation discount to the U.S.
Within the last few months the BAT stocks Baidu BIDU, Alibaba BABA and Tencent TCEHY have been among the biggest losers.
The recent arrest of JD CEO Richard Liu has caused JD stocks to tumble further relative to its e-commerce peers and is now almost 50% off its 52-week high. I view this as a risk-reward profile that is heavily tilted in favor of the bull.
All indicators explained on the graph.
JD technical analysis*** THIS IS NOT AN ADVICE, DO YOUR RESEARCH AND TRADE WITH YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY***
Fundamentally, Apart from what people think about the CEO's criminal charges, contrarian thinking, that changes nothing in terms of business structure, fundamentally ly JD.com still is the second largest shopping website.
Now, let's look at the chart, the H&S pattern is fulfilled with huge volume climax, the short will close their trade soon and buyers will come in , a level like this is where bulls and bears agree with each other and that will push the price higher, 88% of the time.
Volume profile gives us a good lead on where to take profit.
*** THIS IS NOT AN ADVICE, DO YOUR RESEARCH AND TRADE WITH YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY***
JD Long Term Supply and Demand AnalysisPrice has reached 3M demand on JD, triggered long here on the MN.
This is a long term investment for me so I purchased the stock, will also be looking for an options trade if we start to see bullish moves on the WK chart.
Price is way too low to think about shorts, longs only!
JD Bullish TriangleJD gapped down on bad CEO news and recovered a little bit today. Its been beat down pretty bad over the past couple months from 45 in mid June. We were approaching another big Daily support at ~25.30 but failed to reach it. Today we ended up making a decent triangle here with a significant price level 27.60 coming into play frequently the past couple days. What I would like to see, along with some market strength, is a move that can hold above this level and look to enter on a successful retest of the TL or 27.60. We did see some heavy selling into the close and another afterhours retest of the bottom trendline. Will have to see how the open plays out tomorrow.
JD.COM in trouble if you care about head and Shoulders
For me JD.com will be a nice furture investment to battle Alibaba and Amazon, but by now they just don't make any profits and the chart tells the same story.
Buying opportunity at around 20 $ for a long run up.
Just my opinion so make your own research
and like always
May the markets be with us
Repeating Patterndo u see the small HS and big HS?
The small one actually did not work out in the end as HS should break downwards.
Now how about the bigger one? Will it break downwards? Chinese stocks in US market and hongkong market are bearish recently.
It looks not good. Tomorrow is the earning day. wait the trigger.
JD.com, will the past repeat itself. I believe $JD is good for a bounce here with a target up to near the 50 week MA(blue). As you can see in the chart, JD has had a head & shoulders neckline break very similar to one in the past. In both instances the 7, 8, and 9 candles are trending upward. Presently, this week's candle is right on the 200 week MA (yellow). Using TD_sequential, we should see a 1-4 candle correction.
I think we see this correction begin next week. As of today it looks as if a diamond bottom is forming on the daily. Also, today had a bullish cross of the macd on the daily.
I am long 31.98 average.
JB: Head and Shoulders formation in progress -10%JD is forming the right shoulder of a long term head and shoulders formation; Aug'17 left shoulder and Jan'18 head. Downside target to neckline is $34, -10%. ABCD completion from the Jan'18 peak will imply a downside target of $29, -24%.
Options Trading Series (LEAPS – BABA + JD) BABA and JD are two of China's largest and fastest growing e-commerce companies. Due to trade war fears, Chinese stocks have been under heavy selling pressure lately. BABA is down ~20% from its ATH and JD is down ~40%.
On the other hand, both companies are producing outstanding financial results and investing in the future (i.e. Google + WMT announced partnerships with JD; and SBUX + KO announced partnerships with BABA).
In terms of growth, just as an example, BABA's revenue in the March quarter grew 61% YoY; cloud computing revenue grew 103%. JD’s revenue grew by 33% YoY; active customer accounts were up 28% YoY, etc. It's not easy to find companies of this size growing at such an impressive speed. Obviously BABA is a standout, but JD is actually differentiated in many ways – most importantly are the quality of products on the website and the buildout of the logistic network; I think JD wins there (JD, over BABA, is often compared to AMZN in the early days – I think JD is far ahead than where AMZN was at this stage of being a public company).
Technical perspective: both names are very oversold.
BABA – as you can see shares have traded sideways for about a year: ~$163-$165 has severed as a floor of support. The last time RSI touched 30 was in Dec-17. Shares ran up from $165 and hit $205 before selling off (24% move). I think the stock is set up nicely for another run-up.
JD - this stock has been a bit of a rollercoaster, hitting at a high of $50 with $35 serving as a floor of support -- which has just broken. The last time RSI hit ~25 was back in April 2018 when shares went from ~$35 to $45 before reversing course (28% move). While I do think there's more risk to this name, I think this stock is also nicely set up for a rebound.
Given the level of risk I see with these China names and not knowing how long the trade war fears will play out / uncertain to the extent of the impact at this point, I decided to do LEAPs in both names. What I will do is trade shorter dated options (both calls/puts) around these “core” positions.
Action: This morning I open both trades:
JD - 1/17/2020 $37 Calls (JD reports tomorrow morning).
BABA – 6/21/19 $180 Calls. (reports next week).
I think trade war fears are overblown and these company very well-positioned for the future. I'd be a buyer here and on any future weakness.
I will post update periodically.
Cheers!
