NIO forming double bottom on weeklyNIO chart looking bullish as its forming a double bottom on 1W.
I have added the trade idea with projections.
9866 trade ideas
Potential future of SOLANA. Silver and NIO. Agree?It's just an interesting fractal that I think is plausible. Personally, I don't hold WHITEBIT:SOLUSDT and don't expect ATH to be updated in the new cycle.
Technically, the project is unstable and looks more like a beautiful marketing. For example, WHITEBIT:EOSUSDT has much more advantages technically and is safer as an investment.
TVC:SILVER and NYSE:NIO NIO's share are very similar. NIO is also a very beautiful marketing that has a lot of problems.
NIO: Ready to Roar? Bullish Signs Point to AccumulationThe Wyckoff accumulation pattern offers valuable insights into potential market reversals and breakouts. This case suggests that "Big Money" might be quietly accumulating shares in preparation for a NIO run.
Evidence of Accumulation:
March 2022: Large buying volume shows the initial accumulation.
October 2022: The subsequent selling climax further confirms accumulation.
Trading range: The current sideways price action suggests the market is consolidating before a breakout. During this consolidation, there is more volume along the upswing vs the downswing.
The current price behavior closely resembles the spring phase of the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. This phase represents "Big Money's" final attempt to acquire shares at lower prices before initiating the long-term uptrend.
Strong support exists as low as $5, offering a potential buying opportunity.
In the event of successful accumulation, a price target of $22 seems reasonable.
Patience is key, as the accumulation process can last for months. I suspect we have a few months to start the breakout.
While the Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggests a potential long-term uptrend, due diligence and comprehensive market analysis are crucial before making any investment decisions.
NIO BullishI think NIO will push to at least the $9 area soon.
I am buying a Jan 19 9/10 call vertical for around .15
Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders for Nio StockI'm looking at a potential bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern forming here on Nio Stock.
Credit Suisse AG Acquires 879,832 Shares of Nio Inc - (NYSE:NIO)Credit Suisse AG boosted its holdings in shares of Nio Inc - (NYSE:NIO) by 19.1% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 5,497,075 shares of the company's stock after purchasing an additional 879,832 shares during the quarter. Credit Suisse AG owned about 0.33% of NIO worth $53,267,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. BlackRock Inc. boosted its stake in NIO by 7.8% during the 2nd quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 66,794,714 shares of the company's stock valued at $647,241,000 after purchasing an additional 4,835,232 shares during the period. Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its stake in NIO by 2.2% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 51,370,117 shares of the company's stock valued at $810,108,000 after purchasing an additional 1,113,194 shares during the period. Norges Bank bought a new stake in NIO during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $155,344,000.
Legal & General Group Plc raised its holdings in NIO by 0.8% in the 4th quarter. Legal & General Group Plc now owns 11,086,052 shares of the company's stock valued at $108,089,000 after acquiring an additional 92,662 shares in the last quarter. Finally, First Trust Advisors LP raised its holdings in NIO by 20.8% in the 1st quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 8,128,289 shares of the company's stock valued at $171,100,000 after acquiring an additional 1,399,601 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 42.32% of the company's stock.
ON NioThere is a lot of competition in the EV space and adoption has not met the expectations EV companies expected. Most have pretty bad books and have to take measures to cut costs and try to build a solid foundation going forward by being creative, innovative, and opportunity-seeking.
The share price has tumbled in the past two years and this provides long-term investors with an opportunity to look into the stock and look for value if there is any (Fundamentally).
Looking at an oversold opportunity. China's economic health is something to consider.
NIO: Movement expected after earnings I think the scenario that happened in NASDAQ:UPST Q2 23 earnings is about to repeat in NIO's Q3. Almost the exact same chart setup, the only thing though is different is that NIO is a Chinese stock, and you really cannot predict how will the market digests the results. If and only if the results are outstanding the market might still not favor it.
Despite the above, I still believe it has a setup for a pop.
Not a financial advice, no position, might consider a starter after earnings.
Good Luck
NIO STOCK BULLISHNIO stock is forming a bullish divergence on the weekly & daily RSI chart. This stock has been absolutely hammered the last couple years due to inconsistent supply issues as well as getting out of unprofitably that most new companies struggle with. However I do believe with projected earnings being over 2B the company should be getting over its hardest time & hopefully moving upward again soon. This stock has an average price target of 12, and while I believe that is quite low - it’s still a 70% INCREASE FROM CURRENT LEVELS. I do think it will run to 21-22 area for a 200% RETURN.
NIO If you haven`t sold NIO at this crazy valuation:
or after the BMW comparision:
or reentered before the breakout:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 7usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NIO Stock Prediction SWING TRADE December 2 Sell then buyHere is how I see NIO Sell it to $4.00 and buy it at $4.00 then let it run up past $5.00 then on the way back down add more @ $5.00
More downside on earnings?NYSE:NIO seems to be resting on $7.2 support and making a continuation pattern which could push the stock downwards. Even if the earnings try to push up the stock, it could result in a fake-out.
Stay cautious next week!
NIO Limited (symbol ‘NIO’), DailyNIO Limited (symbol ‘NIO’) share price incurred losses for the quarter and declined by around 2%. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending September 2023 is expected to be released on Tuesday 5th of December, before market open. The consensus EPS is $-0.43 against $-0.36 of the same quarter last year.
‘The fact that the company has had consistent negative earnings for the last 4 years, does not necessarily mean that the company is not growing. Based on the latest published balance sheet of 2022 the company has more than doubled its expenses on property,plant and equipment as well as long-term investments. It has also tripled its inventory while the cash on hand has declined by 25% and the long term debt also declined by more than 50%. All these indicate that the company is utilizing its cash reserves towards economic growth and is a company that is trying to establish itself in the highly competitive electric vehicles market.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, trading specialist at Exness.
Technical analysis shows that the price has lost its bullish momentum in early August and has yet to find sufficient support to rebound to the upside. Currently the 50 day moving average is still trading below the 100 day moving average indicating that the overall bearish trend is still valid. On the other hand there are some minor indications that a correction to the upside might be imminent in the near short term. First the Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme oversold level and the lower band of the Bollinger bands is also acting as a support on the price at the time of this report been written. Both these might suggest that a correction to the upside might be seen in the coming sessions especially after earnings if there is a positive surprise on the actual figure.
NIO AnalysisPrice did not fill the FVG as per my last analysis. However, price did give us the bearish move I was expecting, into the bullish OB at 7.92. Price has been consolidating since then. Right now, I'm expecting a bullish retracement into the FVG at 10.22 again if we get a push up.
$NIO Q3 Earnings May Add To Its TroubleBefore NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) reported its Q2 earnings, we expected the EV maker to miss revenue estimates while posting an EPS in line with estimates. As the company missed both estimates, it is not surprising that its stock is down more than 45% since then. That being said, Nio is expected to post its Q3 earnings later this month where analysts expect it to report an EPS of -$0.43. Although the company reported impressive delivery numbers in Q3, our model forecasts it to report a wider loss than analysts’ estimate. It is for this reason that investors may find it lucrative to go short on Nio stock.
NIO Fundamentals
Q3 Forecast
In Q3, Nio delivered 55,432 vehicles, a record quarterly figure. While this could mean that the company may report record earnings, that may not be the case in its upcoming Q3 earnings report. Nio has been suffering from declining vehicle revenue per delivery since Q4 2022 as it dropped significantly from $53,426.94 in Q4 2022 to $43,271.45 and it further declined in Q2 to $42,129.51.
There are 2 reasons behind the drop in the company’s vehicle revenue per delivery. The first is that many of its deliveries are of the ET5 model and 75-kilowatt standard-range battery pack models, as stated by management in the Q2 earnings report. The second reason is the company cutting the prices of its EVs in the wake of the price war Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) started. All of these factors have major implications for Nio’s revenues and gross margins.
In terms of revenues, the lower average selling price means that Nio generates less revenue than it could from its deliveries. By using the average vehicle revenue of the last 2 quarters, the projected vehicle revenue for Q3 is $42,700.48. This means that Nio’s projected vehicle revenue in Q3 is more than $2.3 billion by multiplying the projected vehicle revenue per delivery by its Q3 deliveries.
Quarter Vehicle Sales Deliveries Revenue/Delivery
Q1 21 $1,130,344,000 20,060 $56,348.16
Q2 21 $1,225,384,000 21,896 $55,963.83
Q3 21 $1,340,405,000 24,439 $54,846.97
Q4 21 $1,446,093,000 25,034 $57,765.16
Q1 22 $1,458,207,000 25,768 $56,589.84
Q2 22 $1,428,889,000 25,059 $57,020.99
Q3 22 $1,677,474,000 31,607 $53,072.86
Q4 22 $2,139,856,000 40,052 $53,426.94
Q1 23 $1,343,189,000 31,041 $43,271.45
Q2 23 $990,886,000 23,520 $42,129.51
Q3 23 $2,366,972,848 55,432 $42,700.48
As such, Nio’s gross margins would be impacted. In the Q2 earnings call, management reiterated its target of double-digit vehicle gross margin in Q3 and 15% in Q4. These targets seem unrealistic since the company is still in the same position in Q1 and Q2 as the majority of its deliveries are from the cheaper ET5 and 75-kilowatt standard-range battery pack models. In fact, its margins should deteriorate further since all of the Q3 deliveries were after the $4,200 price cut on all of its vehicles.
Based on this, using the average gross margin of the last 3 quarters to forecast its Q3 vehicle margin makes sense since the margins of these 3 quarters are all within the same level Nio is expected to have in Q3 due to the aforementioned reasons. This means that the EV maker’s gross margin would be 6.04% or a gross profit of $142.9 million. In this way, we can forecast Nio’s Q3 cost of vehicle revenue to be around $2.2 billion.
Quarter Vehicle Cost of Sales Vehicle Gross Profit Vehicle Gross Margin
Q1 21 $891,197,000 $239,147,000 21.16%
Q2 21 $976,985,000 $248,399,000 20.27%
Q3 21 $1,098,516,000 $241,889,000 18.05%
Q4 21 $1,144,199,000 $301,894,000 20.88%
Q1 22 $1,193,752,000 $264,455,000 18.14%
Q2 22 $1,190,879,000 $238,010,000 16.66%
Q3 22 $1,402,722,000 $274,752,000 16.38%
Q4 22 $1,993,471,000 $146,385,000 6.84%
Q1 23 $1,275,177,000 $68,012,000 5.06%
Q2 23 $929,260,000 $61,626,000 6.22%
Q3 23 $2,223,979,004 $142,993,844 6.04%
As for other revenues, they are projected to be $215.1 million which is the average of the first 2 quarters of the year since there were no material changes that would affect that item. In addition, other revenues had an average gross margin of -21.84% over Q1 and Q2 which can help us project its other revenues cost of sales to come in the region of $262 million.
Quarter Other Cost of Sales Other Gross Profit Other Gross Margin
Q1 21 $89,836,000 -$1,838,000 -2.09%
Q2 21 $87,682,000 -$4,630,000 -5.57%
Q3 21 $113,909,000 $67,445,000 37.19%
Q4 21 $142,748,000 -$35,199,000 -32.73%
Q1 22 $141,372,000 -$36,223,000 -34.45%
Q2 22 $145,629,000 -$37,909,000 -35.19%
Q3 22 $181,168,000 -$30,836,000 -20.51%
Q4 22 $245,374,000 -$56,240,000 -29.74%
Q1 23 $255,806,000 -$44,380,000 -20.99%
Q2 23 $268,426,000 -$49,635,000 -22.69%
Q3 23 $262,084,786 -$46,976,286 -21.84%
By adding all of these projections, we can reach a total revenue estimate of $2.5 billion and a total cost of revenue estimate of $2.4 billion. This would represent a sequential improvement in gross margin to 3.72% compared to almost 1%.
With the topline covered, it’s time to forecast Nio’s expenses and EPS. In terms of R&D expenses, management expects it to be at the same levels as Q1 and Q2 until the end of 2024. Therefore, we can project Q3 R&D expenses to be $454.5 million based on the average of Q1 and Q2. This would represent 17.6% of its projected revenues which would be a sequential improvement from 38.13%.
Quarter R&D R&D as % of Revenue
Q1 21 $104,788,000 8.60%
Q2 21 $136,862,000 10.46%
Q3 21 $185,170,000 12.17%
Q4 21 $286,934,000 18.47%
Q1 22 $277,899,000 17.78%
Q2 22 $320,909,000 20.88%
Q3 22 $413,934,000 22.65%
Q4 22 $577,130,000 24.78%
Q1 23 $447,844,000 28.81%
Q2 23 $461,238,000 38.13%
Q3 23 $454,541,000 17.60%
In terms of SG&A expenses, management expects it to increase due to more marketing activities in tandem with the launch of the new NT2 models, while representing a smaller percentage of revenue compared to the first half of the year. With that in mind, SGA expenses average around 23.47% of revenue since Q1 2022. Therefore, using this figure leads us to project Q3’s SG&A expenses to be around $605.9 million.
Quarter SG&A SG&A as % of Revenue
Q1 21 $182,736,000 15.00%
Q2 21 $231,973,000 17.73%
Q3 21 $283,216,000 18.61%
Q4 21 $370,061,000 23.82%
Q1 22 $317,828,000 20.33%
Q2 22 $340,762,000 22.18%
Q3 22 $381,315,000 20.86%
Q4 22 $511,421,000 21.96%
Q1 23 $356,155,000 22.91%
Q2 23 $393,944,000 32.57%
Q3 23 $605,939,103 23.47%
Another part of Nio’s operating expenses is other operating income. This expense has averaged around 0.96% since Q1 2022 which is why it can be used to project the company’s Q3 other operating income. This means that this expense would amount to $24.8 million.
Quarter Other Operating Income/Loss Other Income as % of Revenue
Q1 21 $5,047,000 0.41%
Q2 21 $6,843,000 0.52%
Q3 21 $5,108,000 0.34%
Q4 21 $6,605,000 0.43%
Q1 22 $22,240,000 1.42%
Q2 22 $36,738,000 2.39%
Q3 22 $7,255,000 0.40%
Q4 22 $21,756,000 0.93%
Q1 23 $36,025,000 2.32%
Q2 23 $5,531,000 0.46%
Q3 23 $24,832,012 0.96%
Based on these projections, Nio is forecasted to report an operating loss of $939.6 million in Q3.
Revenue $2,582,081,348
Cost of Sales $2,486,063,790
Gross Profit $96,017,557
R&D $454,541,000
SG&A $605,939,103
Other Income $24,832,012
Operating Loss -$939,630,534
For the rest of Nio’s income statement, we can use the average of the last 2 quarters as follows to forecast them since no material changes impacting these items occurred in Q3.
Quarter Interest Income Interest Expense Shares of Equity Investees Other Income/Loss Loss Before Tax Income Tax
Q1 21 $18,257,000 -$64,678,000 $15,765,000 $7,583,000 -$68,241,000 -$604,000
Q2 21 $29,897,000 -$9,374,000 -$534,000 $7,575,000 -$90,659,000 -$280,000
Q3 21 $37,266,000 -$11,980,000 -$5,530,000 $5,055,000 -$129,133,000 -$504,000
Q4 21 $56,344,000 -$11,916,000 -$266,000 $8,399,000 -$331,134,000 -$5,217,000
Q1 22 $63,207,000 -$12,200,000 $4,138,000 $13,706,000 -$276,404,000 -$4,805,000
Q2 22 $43,723,000 -$9,661,000 $7,174,000 -$28,360,000 -$411,956,000 $267,000
Q3 22 $44,030,000 -$14,137,000 $7,318,000 -$69,668,000 -$576,535,000 -$1,355,000
Q4 22 $51,029,000 -$10,246,000 $36,455,000 $45,772,000 -$836,474,000 -$2,435,000
Q1 23 $44,668,000 -$9,998,000 $1,980,000 $18,680,000 -$689,012,000 -$1,117,000
Q2 23 $34,088,000 -$11,369,000 $1,467,000 -$19,079,000 -$832,553,000 -$2,575,000
Q3 23 $39,378,000 -$10,683,500 $1,723,500 -$199,500 -$909,412,034 -$1,846,000
Adding all of these projections together we reach a net loss projection of $911.2 million or an EPS of -$0.6 at its last reported outstanding shares count of 1.5 billion. This would be a wider loss than analysts’ estimate of -$0.43 which could see the stock sink to new lows.
Revenue $2,582,081,348
Cost of Sales $2,486,063,790
Gross Profit $96,017,557
R&D $454,541,000
SG&A $605,939,103
Other Income $24,832,012
Operating Loss -$939,630,534
Interest Income $39,378,000
Interest Expense -$10,683,500
Shares of Equity Investees $1,723,500
Other Income/Loss -$199,500
Loss Before Tax -$909,412,034
Income Tax -$1,846,000
Net Loss -$911,258,034
OS 1,520,452,081
EPS -$0.60
Valuation
Even after its 45% drop since our last article covering it, NIO stock may still be overvalued at its current valuation. As is, the EV maker has a book value of $2.5 billion which means that its book value per share is $1.67. Taking this into consideration, Nio is trading at a 4.55 P/B ratio which could indicate that the stock is still overvalued given that a suitable P/B ratio is usually less than 3. Based on this, we can reach a $5 price target on NIO stock which means that there’s around 31% downside from the current share price.
Total Assets $12,050,105,000
Total Liabilities $9,518,072,000
Book Value $2,532,033,000
OS 1,520,452,081
BVPS $1.67
Share Price $7.58
P/B Ratio 4.55
Upside Risks
Despite this, there is a risk to the bearish thesis on NIO stock that investors should consider. Battery costs have been declining with the global weighted average price for lithium-ion cell prices dropping below $100 per kilowatt-hour for the first time in 2 years last August due to raw material prices declining, according to energy analytics firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. This could lead EV makers including Nio to witness better margins since batteries represent 30% of an EV’s manufacturing cost, according to a Goldman Sachs report.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, NIO stock is in a neutral trend as it is trading in a sideways channel between $7.2 and $8.08. Looking at the indicators, the stock is below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bearish signal. However, the RSI is approaching oversold at 32 and the MACD recently turned bullish.
As for the fundamentals, Nio’s upcoming Q3 earnings have the potential to be make or break for the stock. If the company fails to reach the double-digit gross margin target as the model above expects, there might be substantial downside pressure on the stock price. With the stock trading near support, investors could wait for a break of the $7.2 to enter a short position in the stock. With that in mind, a break of this support could signal a drop near $5.84, which would be a multi-year low.
NIO Forecast
To conclude, NIO stock’s forecast could be bearish. While the EV maker’s deliveries increased substantially in Q3, it remains to be seen whether this increase was fueled by its price cuts. Since the company is already operating at poor margins, the price cuts may further compress margins, which makes management’s target of reaching double-digit margins in Q3 potentially unrealistic. Meanwhile, our model forecasts the company to post a wider loss than analysts’ estimates. Considering Nio’s history of overpromising and underdelivering, its stock could continue its free fall if it fails to meet expectations once again in Q3 which could see it reach the $5 price target.
$NIO - $1.19 Price target potential double bottomDownward Channel is still intact and looking for further short selling. To maximize profits, short at top of channel for a leg lower. first targets is around $4.70 to $3.22. Nio could potentially hit $1.19 since the stock has had meteoric rise and should consolidate at the lows to grow into its valuation.
Macd rami//Created by user ChrisMoody updated 4-10-2014
//Regular MACD Indicator with Histogram that plots 4 Colors Based on Direction Above and Below the Zero Line
//Update allows Check Box Options, Show MacD & Signal Line, Show Change In color of MacD Line based on cross of Signal Line.
//Show Dots at Cross of MacD and Signal Line, Histogram can show 4 colors or 1, Turn on and off Histogram.
//Special Thanks to that incredible person in Tech Support whoem I won't say you r name so you don't get bombarded with emails
//Note the feature Tech Support showed me on how to set the default timeframe of the indicator to the chart Timeframe, but also allow you to choose a different timeframe.
//By the way I fully disclose that I completely STOLE the Dots at the MAcd Cross from "TheLark"
study(title="CM_MacD_Ult_MTF", shorttitle="CM_Ult_MacD_MTF")
source = close
useCurrentRes = input(true, title="Use Current Chart Resolution?")
resCustom = input(title="Use Different Timeframe? Uncheck Box Above", type=resolution, defval="60")
smd = input(true, title="Show MacD & Signal Line? Also Turn Off Dots Below")
sd = input(true, title="Show Dots When MacD Crosses Signal Line?")
sh = input(true, title="Show Histogram?")
macd_colorChange = input(true,title="Change MacD Line Color-Signal Line Cross?")
hist_colorChange = input(true,title="MacD Histogram 4 Colors?")
res = useCurrentRes ? period : resCustom
fastLength = input(12, minval=1), slowLength=input(26,minval=1)
signalLength=input(9,minval=1)
fastMA = ema(source, fastLength)
slowMA = ema(source, slowLength)
macd = fastMA - slowMA
signal = sma(macd, signalLength)
hist = macd - signal
outMacD = security(tickerid, res, macd)
outSignal = security(tickerid, res, signal)
outHist = security(tickerid, res, hist)
histA_IsUp = outHist > outHist and outHist > 0
histA_IsDown = outHist < outHist and outHist > 0
histB_IsDown = outHist < outHist and outHist <= 0
histB_IsUp = outHist > outHist and outHist <= 0
//MacD Color Definitions
macd_IsAbove = outMacD >= outSignal
macd_IsBelow = outMacD < outSignal
plot_color = hist_colorChange ? histA_IsUp ? aqua : histA_IsDown ? blue : histB_IsDown ? red : histB_IsUp ? maroon :yellow :gray
macd_color = macd_colorChange ? macd_IsAbove ? lime : red : red
signal_color = macd_colorChange ? macd_IsAbove ? yellow : yellow : lime
circleYPosition = outSignal
plot(smd and outMacD ? outMacD : na, title="MACD", color=macd_color, linewidth=4)
plot(smd and outSignal ? outSignal : na, title="Signal Line", color=signal_color, style=line ,linewidth=2)
plot(sh and outHist ? outHist : na, title="Histogram", color=plot_color, style=histogram, linewidth=4)
plot(sd and cross(outMacD, outSignal) ? circleYPosition : na, title="Cross", style=circles, linewidth=4, color=macd_color)
hline(0, '0 Line', linestyle=solid, linewidth=2, color=white)
NIO IHS Nio has been attacked by shorters who are protected against short squeeze.
But now IHS might offer some relief
Nio Formed Double bottomNio Formed double bottom at 7.54 after long consolidation hoping to move up from here expecting to reach around 22
More downside for Nio [KalaGhazii]Nio (NIO) led Chinese EV stocks lower in the wake of poor Tesla (TSLA) earnings.
For its part, Nio expects to report a loss for the quarter on Nov. 9.
The EV maker is also looking to sell branded chips and smartphones.
Nio upwardsNio finished the retreat of Wave2 at $7.93.
I expect Wave3 between $26.18 - $32.36. As the daily traded value remains low Wave3 can end in 2024.
NIO BULLISH LONG TERMBased on deep analysis NIO’s future price forecast is bullish. There are multiple indications towards oversold, buyers moving in, and plenty of consolidation with repetitive movements between price levels 8.50$-9$. Will update if any new data changes my forecast outlook.
