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9868 trade ideas

Fundamentals on XPEV over NIOIt was apparently last year but having such little history, in a nascent market, the data points couldn't be trusted, yet. However I took a large position in Xpev over NIO for a few reasons. 1) They are not competitors, from a price point perspective. Xpev makes a car by my estimate 90% as good as NIOs and 80% as good as Tesla, but they sell for 50-60% of the cost. Nio is a direct competitor of Tesla. Being a start-up funding/attrition is key and fighting Tesla is capital intensive. 2) Speaking of, Xpev is copying more than innovating, though slilght innovations on the things they copy exist. It's cheaper and faster to copy than it is to innovate. NIO made a bold move adopting a battery swap format. It could work in time but that's the problem, in time. It's a capital intensive and geographically disadvantaged strategy to build swap stations, though it's innovative and clever to offer cars at sale prices minus the battery, and leasing the battery to the customer. I like that recurring revenue and lower entry point potential, but again it's a battle of attrition and NIOs strategy is so capital intensive that even it's short term prospects are murky. Xpev is simple. Simple i like. 3) As you can see in the chart this is playing out on the balance sheet and revenue. Xpev from a unit sales perspective has been catching up to NIO, I attribute much of that to their price point and marketing. But also from a balance sheet perspective they are burning less cash so while margins are lower per unit sold, their capex is also lower compared to NIO to balance that out in favor of XPEV. 4) Bonus reason, XPEV is focused. Mainly China/Asia customer base with no plans to expand to NA. Currently testing select parts of Europe. Again, simple is good. Transport logistics, local regulations, taxes/tariffs all create levels of complexity, complexity increases cost an lowers margins. Simple is good. I see XPEV out performing NIO throughout 2022. Although I do believe should the overall EV market expand fast enough, NIO will do just fine and a rising tide will certainly float their boat as well.
NYSE:XPEVLong
by sin3rgy
8
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged last week and reached the HKD87.6 support that we talked about last week. It then craved a lower low before settling at HKD102.60 on Friday. With the latest price action, a close above HKD115.90 could trigger a near term rebound towards the HKD143 resistance. Bear in mind, price action as been creating lower lows and lower highs since Dec 2021, hence any rebound could be limited with traders are trading with the wind on their faces. Hence a close below HKD100 psychological support could provide short selling opportunity with a retest of HKD71.80 support or beyond.
HKEX:9868
by Boring_Trader
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged and hit first downside objective HKD103.4, as anticipated last week. As price action showing lower lows and lower highs since January 2022, EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing bearish crossovers, there is a possibility of Xpeng reaching HKD87.6 support. This level is Fibonacci Extension 1.618 levels, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
HKEX:9868
by Boring_Trader
XPEV - Half full or half empty?Dear subscribers, lets come together to discuss the massive movements in Xpeng... NYSE:XPEV As the title of this article implies, today we are going to look at the different viewpoints about the future of Xpeng after the massive sell-off in the last days. It can be clearly stated that the last wave 1-2 setup is invalidated with the breach of the resistance at 33.52$. Based on the movements of the last few months, we have updated our chart setup to a very bearish scenario and do not expect a direct recovery in the coming days. Due to the increased volatility, we estimate that we are in a downward wave 1-2 setup and currently we have witnessed a loss of -37% since the high at wave 2 (red). Theoretically, the wave 3 target at $31.94 (1,618 extension) is almost reached, yet Xpeng can continue to fall and we expect an upcoming breach of the $30 level. After that, we should start a small recovery based on wave 4, which will most likely bring us back to the region of 34$-36$. After that, we estimate further losses as very likely and assume a break of the previous low at $22.73. Predicting the future correction target is very difficult, but we view a correction to the $20 level as realistic. There is a small chance, that the correction could come to an early end at this price levels, however the possibility for this is very low. We would like to remind every subscriber that we as "Mendenmein-Capital" are clearly long term oriented and will continue to hold our "Acquisition #1" If Xpeng should hit new lows, we will add more positions to our holdings and won't sell them for the next few years. Keep in mind that this is a buy and hold position - unleveraged and without a stop-loss. Current setup: AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 40.76$ STOP-LOSS: NONE Disclaimer: According to legal regulations, Mornau-Research is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk. Mornau-Research cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence. =============================================================================================================== If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact us.
NYSE:XPEV
by Mendenmein-Capital
5
XPENGXPENG (9868) price action favors the short sellers. This because EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing deadly crosses, a bearish sign. In addition, it also forms higher highs and higher lows since Dec 2021. Hence it is likely to further extend its downtrend and present short selling opportunities once HKD115.9 level broke thru. First downside objective is HKD103.4 while second downside objective is HKD87.6. Both levels are Fibonacci Extension 1.272 and 1.618 levels respectively, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
HKEX:9868
by Boring_Trader