Is the Top in on Gold?After punching through $2000/oz for the first time since July, Gold and Silver have found themselves in a peculiar position, suddenly competing with the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Perhaps the $175/oz rally over the past three weeks left investors "itching" to find the next "quick buck." While Bitcoin has proven a viable asset class, retail investors and Central Banks will quickly purchase any correction in precious metals.
Next Weeks Federal Reserve Meeting
The Fed meets next week and is near completing its fastest interest rate hike cycle in American history. Many call this wreckless given the unprecedented Government Debt, leaving almost no foreseeable way out. Once the Federal Reserve pauses its interest rate hike cycle, they have historically cut rates within 7-9 months. According to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, there is better than a 50% probability the Fed will cut rates by at least 25bps by July 2024, and should have bullish implications for precious metals. In addition, Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain on everyone's radar, with two very complex wars breaking out over the past two years. The risks of safely traveling abroad seem higher than ever before, and with the Global divide continuing to expand, one must ask themselves, are we on the verge of WWIII?
The Technicals
Gold futures have broken above the psychological $2000/oz and have opened the door for higher prices. Traders will note that several levels remain on the charts defined as "critical support," with the first being the 200 DMA at $1983, the psychological $1950, and finally, the 50 DMA at $1929. Gold will need a close above $2000 and a stronger session to extend the rally to $2050.
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Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
