HSI1! trade ideas
Bottom is nearI updated on Friday in my last week's post but it was late so putting it here again. Short term bottom might be in and we can see price make its way towards 23500-600 from here. We are seeing third batch of accumulation between 23400-200 with first being between 24500-200 and a rather brief one between 23750-600. Expect price to spend most of the time between 23400-200 and wild swings in either direction to trap traders on both sides over the next few days.
By the look of things, Final bottom will come somewhere during the first week of October.
22900 was the initial target but we are already very close to it so a bit more South is likely.
22900-22500 was the area of accumulation during the shakeout in May. Below there is one more gap at 21900 from 24th March.
I am very confident of multi month Bull market very soon but at the same time i won't go rushing in just yet in fear of missing out.
Next week is short. Thursday and Friday is close.
Best of Luck.
Chart of the Day: HSI1! break down from consolidation wedgeHSI peaked in 2018 and has been in a downtrend marked by persistent lower highs and lower lows.
With 40+ odd days to US elections, expect more craziness out of Trump and China to push back by flexing its revitalized military. Anybody else noticed how most of the Chinese Wushu/war shows in recent years have featured Chinese fighting foreigner oppression? The Americans are preparing for a cold war but the Chinese are preparing for a hot war. China has got to be thinking about the ABCD encirclement of Japan in the 1930's and the Plaza Accord; Both stories did not have a good ending but there weren't many options on the table back in the 1930's and 1980's.
It is tough for HK to deal with a triple whammy of internal turmoil, Corona virus and a trade war. For now, it is helmets on and, especially for my HK friends, to stay safe and hang on tight.
Trying to make sense of volumeCovid 19 crash saw huge volume on 20 straight days. While volume reflected on intraday time frames was higher than average, it was no way near as much as the cumulative daily volume shown on a Daily chart. Upon noticing similar thing happening in last 5 days, i dig it up a bit and found this, " Charts that utilize a periodicity of "Daily" will show a different quantity of Volume when compared to charts that utilize an intraday periodicty like 1 minute or 1 Day*. This is caused by the fact that certain types of trades, such as block trades, spread trades and market trades, are considered by the exchange when reporting the cumulative daily volume for a specific symbol or contract. However, those trades are not represented in the tick or 1-minute intraday data for the symbol. These trades together make up the difference observed between the daily volume and the sum of the intraday volume. ".
Notice how the price is stuck between the high of the first day and low of the last of those huge volume days, surely not a coincidence. I have a theory but my knowledge is very limited. You can read more about block trades here www.investopedia.com and try to make sense of things.
Current setup is very similar to the one prior to the covid 19 crash and the end of June. Accumulation observed on the intraday while big blocks reflected in cumulative daily volume. One crashed, the other rallied. Which one will it be this time? Pre covid setup came after distribution and a selloff whereas end of June was after accumulation and a rally.
I will be updating here during the rest of the week. Pls share your thoughts.
Accumulation ContniuesHSI isn't very popular on this platform as i rarely use to get 100 views on my posts but last week post was close to 500 so many of you were checking back as i was updating in the comment section during the week. I will post once on the weekend from now on and update in the comment section during the week as things develop.
Couple of things i want to put forward. I only trade HSI and there is rarely a day when i don't trade but i can't tell you every trade where to enter or exit. I am just sharing with you what i see in the market at that particular moment. How you trade that is entirely up to you. Please don't ask me where is the bottom/top or i bought here, sold here, will market go up or down. I don't know. You don't have to know any of it to trade. Every moment in market just like each individual is unique. You yourself have to come up with a strategy which best suits your personality. I am just giving you a second opinion.
Coming back to HSI, price spent majority of the week zigzagging between 24500-200. Thursday close looked really convincing for a gap down on Friday morning but it open up instead and concluded the week on a dull note. What it tells me is that they are not done here yet.
Looking at the close, it appears that gap down and selloff on Monday is less likely. If Market goes back up to the selling zone 24700-800, it will offer a good opportunity to short. More often than not, price will go below the accumulation range in a trap move before reversing. Therefore, it is best to wait till it goes down to 23900 or possibly even below 23500 before deciding to go Long.
During the accumulation, down moves are sharp whereas up moves appear laboured. Market has to look weak for dumb money to be on the short side in order for smart money to accumulate, vice versa during distribution. Having said that, i also believe that being on the short side until the very end of accumulation is the right way to trade as long as you are selling from the top of the accumulation range and taking profits in the middle or near the bottom. Do not expect every trade to be a big winner. Market spends vast majority of time range bound. Knowing when market is in the range and when it is about to trend requires understanding of market structure which can only come with time, discipline, dedication and perseverance.
Ideas, suggestions, questions are welcome.
Regards
Pull Back before down move accelerates.
I posted on Wednesday morning to be not deceived by the strong support at 24850-800. At that time, i was expecting the down move to accelerate real soon but then as i updated in the comment section, i noticed high volume every time price came near 24900. That had me second guessing as it was odd for this early in the move. I prefer to be happy with one bird in hand so exited prematurely at 24750. NY selloff came out of the blue but the volume in there further cemented my hunch that a pullback will very likely happen before the next leg of down move.
Contrary to the popular belief, there is nothing random to the markets. Every move is planned beforehand. Therefore, it is vital to be aware of what happened on the left, keeping the bigger picture in context when anticipating the next move.
As of now, i think there is just enough accumulation for a decent pullback before the primary trend down resumes but things can change if price lingers for few more sessions near 24500. I will update in comment section as things come along so please check back or PM me if in need of my opinion.
Regards
Error! Error! HSI1! Hong Kong Index Future chart with real-time Error Error Error. This real-time data subscription chart has an error. The chart is broken and price is wrong and delayed. This is a Hong Kong Index Future. One contract costs $15500 USD. One tick $6.5 USD. It's expensive. The error happens since 17:15 27 AUG till now. It's going on and on and I can't find any Tradingview CS to consult about it. Please help and notice.
May be. May be not.A real difficult one.
Sold off perfectly after taking out the stops above 25188 as anticipated but 2 things don't sit well with me for a short case. First is volume. A bit too high. Daily close well off its lows as well. Second is SPX just filling its gap. Everyone would be jumping on sell wagon. If only markets were that easy to trade.
But my instincts could be totally off and it might just tank down from here.
Picture will be clearer after Tomorrow.
You decide.
