Hang Seng Weekend Planning 2020 Sep 26HSI1!
Price edged higher.
Volume did not indicate convincing buying.
My preferred Long / Short scenario.
#DYODD #NotTradeCall
HSI1! trade ideas
Hangseng IndexHK indeks still got pressure to south, next week we gonna see if it break blue line at bottom or red line? if break blue line, then follow trend to sell it. it break out red line, buy at pullback is wiser.
Happy trade all
Chart of the Day: HSI1! break down from consolidation wedgeHSI peaked in 2018 and has been in a downtrend marked by persistent lower highs and lower lows.
With 40+ odd days to US elections, expect more craziness out of Trump and China to push back by flexing its revitalized military. Anybody else noticed how most of the Chinese Wushu/war shows in recent years have featured Chinese fighting foreigner oppression? The Americans are preparing for a cold war but the Chinese are preparing for a hot war. China has got to be thinking about the ABCD encirclement of Japan in the 1930's and the Plaza Accord; Both stories did not have a good ending but there weren't many options on the table back in the 1930's and 1980's.
It is tough for HK to deal with a triple whammy of internal turmoil, Corona virus and a trade war. For now, it is helmets on and, especially for my HK friends, to stay safe and hang on tight.
Trying to make sense of volumeCovid 19 crash saw huge volume on 20 straight days. While volume reflected on intraday time frames was higher than average, it was no way near as much as the cumulative daily volume shown on a Daily chart. Upon noticing similar thing happening in last 5 days, i dig it up a bit and found this, " Charts that utilize a periodicity of "Daily" will show a different quantity of Volume when compared to charts that utilize an intraday periodicty like 1 minute or 1 Day*. This is caused by the fact that certain types of trades, such as block trades, spread trades and market trades, are considered by the exchange when reporting the cumulative daily volume for a specific symbol or contract. However, those trades are not represented in the tick or 1-minute intraday data for the symbol. These trades together make up the difference observed between the daily volume and the sum of the intraday volume. ".
Notice how the price is stuck between the high of the first day and low of the last of those huge volume days, surely not a coincidence. I have a theory but my knowledge is very limited. You can read more about block trades here www.investopedia.com and try to make sense of things.
Current setup is very similar to the one prior to the covid 19 crash and the end of June. Accumulation observed on the intraday while big blocks reflected in cumulative daily volume. One crashed, the other rallied. Which one will it be this time? Pre covid setup came after distribution and a selloff whereas end of June was after accumulation and a rally.
I will be updating here during the rest of the week. Pls share your thoughts.
Accumulation ContniuesHSI isn't very popular on this platform as i rarely use to get 100 views on my posts but last week post was close to 500 so many of you were checking back as i was updating in the comment section during the week. I will post once on the weekend from now on and update in the comment section during the week as things develop.
Couple of things i want to put forward. I only trade HSI and there is rarely a day when i don't trade but i can't tell you every trade where to enter or exit. I am just sharing with you what i see in the market at that particular moment. How you trade that is entirely up to you. Please don't ask me where is the bottom/top or i bought here, sold here, will market go up or down. I don't know. You don't have to know any of it to trade. Every moment in market just like each individual is unique. You yourself have to come up with a strategy which best suits your personality. I am just giving you a second opinion.
Coming back to HSI, price spent majority of the week zigzagging between 24500-200. Thursday close looked really convincing for a gap down on Friday morning but it open up instead and concluded the week on a dull note. What it tells me is that they are not done here yet.
Looking at the close, it appears that gap down and selloff on Monday is less likely. If Market goes back up to the selling zone 24700-800, it will offer a good opportunity to short. More often than not, price will go below the accumulation range in a trap move before reversing. Therefore, it is best to wait till it goes down to 23900 or possibly even below 23500 before deciding to go Long.
During the accumulation, down moves are sharp whereas up moves appear laboured. Market has to look weak for dumb money to be on the short side in order for smart money to accumulate, vice versa during distribution. Having said that, i also believe that being on the short side until the very end of accumulation is the right way to trade as long as you are selling from the top of the accumulation range and taking profits in the middle or near the bottom. Do not expect every trade to be a big winner. Market spends vast majority of time range bound. Knowing when market is in the range and when it is about to trend requires understanding of market structure which can only come with time, discipline, dedication and perseverance.
Ideas, suggestions, questions are welcome.
Regards
Pull Back before down move accelerates.
I posted on Wednesday morning to be not deceived by the strong support at 24850-800. At that time, i was expecting the down move to accelerate real soon but then as i updated in the comment section, i noticed high volume every time price came near 24900. That had me second guessing as it was odd for this early in the move. I prefer to be happy with one bird in hand so exited prematurely at 24750. NY selloff came out of the blue but the volume in there further cemented my hunch that a pullback will very likely happen before the next leg of down move.
Contrary to the popular belief, there is nothing random to the markets. Every move is planned beforehand. Therefore, it is vital to be aware of what happened on the left, keeping the bigger picture in context when anticipating the next move.
As of now, i think there is just enough accumulation for a decent pullback before the primary trend down resumes but things can change if price lingers for few more sessions near 24500. I will update in comment section as things come along so please check back or PM me if in need of my opinion.
Regards
HSI Retraced at fib 61.8%the price embrace the trend line also retraced at 61.8% fib,
wait for confirmation, long it
TP is in the chart.
thank you!
Book Longs, Ready ShortsNot entirely convinced that it has legs for 26k. It might still keep crawling towards 26k but big drop can start any day now. 25800-850 seems good place to sell.
2020 Aug 31 Hang Sengl HSI1!
31 Aug:
Scenario 1 If price tests 25380 and supported
Target TP 25705 | SL 25240
Scenario 2 If price below 25360
Wait for price to reach bottom of channel or
support zone
- supported = buy
- break support = sell
Error! Error! HSI1! Hong Kong Index Future chart with real-time Error Error Error. This real-time data subscription chart has an error. The chart is broken and price is wrong and delayed. This is a Hong Kong Index Future. One contract costs $15500 USD. One tick $6.5 USD. It's expensive. The error happens since 17:15 27 AUG till now. It's going on and on and I can't find any Tradingview CS to consult about it. Please help and notice.
Tread Carefully.Volume spikes in NY session usually precede big swings, often in both directions. Don't expect market to go anywhere for next few days, probably couple of weeks. Buy near 24k and Sell above 26k. Leave the middle part to big whales and let them do their thing. Be Patient.
Insight into the thought processAs i am getting a lot of questions, i decided to present the thought process of my recent analysis. I hv very little PC knowledge so i can't present analysis in a very professional way. If you have any question, i will be glad to help.
Hang Seng UpdateFUtures red because CHina dumped but it looks like they're going to bounce next week.
Don't expect China to drop the market any further, in fact, they're usually good at pumping when their market goes up.
26K LikelyDistribution will likely take place around 25500 and 25850 before a possible trap move towards 26k or even 26500.
May be. May be not.A real difficult one.
Sold off perfectly after taking out the stops above 25188 as anticipated but 2 things don't sit well with me for a short case. First is volume. A bit too high. Daily close well off its lows as well. Second is SPX just filling its gap. Everyone would be jumping on sell wagon. If only markets were that easy to trade.
But my instincts could be totally off and it might just tank down from here.
Picture will be clearer after Tomorrow.
You decide.
No Gap requires cautionIt was all set up so perfectly. The fact that it didn't happen has increased the odds for a pullback.
Momentum is still with the sellers so one or both of the recent swing lows may be taken out and then the pullback.
Will update again in few sessions if i see something developing.
Regards
Monday to Gap down?Will we see an opening gap on Monday to the downside?
It's all setup really nicely. If it does, i don't expect it to get filled anytime soon. Move down should accelerate from there onward.
ATM, i see very little bullish case to support the idea of Gap or the parallel channel acting as a support for another rally.
Resistance now at 24750-850.
